From: Gary Padgett To: Michael V. Padua Subject: February Tracks Date: Wednesday, July 15, 1998 5:52 PM GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - FEBRUARY 1998 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E NOTE: The tracking and intensity information for South Indian Ocean Basin tropical cyclones is based upon operational warnings from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U.S. Air Force and Navy on the island of Guam. The MSW are based on a 1-min averaging period, which is used by all U.S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: ANACELLE Cyclone Number: 20-S Basin: SIO Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 FEB 08 0600 13.2 S 62.7 E 40 98 FEB 08 1200 12.6 S 61.3 E 40 98 FEB 08 1800 12.7 S 60.7 E 40 98 FEB 09 0000 13.3 S 60.8 E 45 98 FEB 09 0600 13.3 S 61.1 E 50 98 FEB 09 1200 14.3 S 61.1 E 60 98 FEB 09 1800 14.4 S 60.7 E 70 98 FEB 10 0000 14.9 S 60.5 E 80 98 FEB 10 1200 16.6 S 59.7 E 90 98 FEB 11 0000 18.2 S 59.2 E 100 98 FEB 11 1200 20.9 S 59.3 E 115 98 FEB 12 0000 23.3 S 60.4 E 105 98 FEB 12 1200 25.4 S 61.3 E 100 98 FEB 13 0000 27.7 S 62.6 E 75 98 FEB 13 1200 30.5 S 66.6 E 60 98 FEB 14 0000 35.3 S 72.7 E 45 98 FEB 14 1200 40.7 S 83.5 E 50 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: 21S Cyclone Number: 21-S Basin: SIO Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 FEB 09 0600 27.2 S 43.7 E 35 98 FEB 09 1800 28.5 S 44.5 E 35 98 FEB 10 0000 29.3 S 45.0 E 30 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: BELTANE Cyclone Number: 23-S Basin: SIO Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 FEB 16 0600 21.5 S 41.5 E 35 98 FEB 16 1800 24.4 S 42.5 E 40 98 FEB 17 0600 24.9 S 43.9 E 35 98 FEB 17 1800 25.1 S 44.0 E 35 98 FEB 18 0600 24.1 S 43.4 E 35 98 FEB 18 1800 21.9 S 39.8 E 35 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: 24S Cyclone Number: 24-S Basin: SIO Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 FEB 16 1200 22.1 S 64.1 E 35 98 FEB 17 0000 24.7 S 63.4 E 35 98 FEB 17 1200 25.7 S 62.1 E 35 98 FEB 18 0000 28.3 S 64.2 E 35 98 FEB 18 1200 30.1 S 66.8 E 45 98 FEB 19 0000 30.2 S 70.6 E 40 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* AUSTRALIAN REGION (AUS) - From Longitude 90E Eastward to Longitude 160E NOTE: The tracks presented below are based on operational warnings from the Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Darwin (Northern Territory) and Perth (Western Australia). The MSW in the tables below are based on a 10-min averaging period. To convert these to equivalent 1-min average winds, multiply by 1.15. However, the wind speed estimates by JTWC mentioned in the Remarks column, are 1-min average sustained winds. To convert these to equivalent 10-min average winds, multiply by 0.87. JTWC = Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, Marianas Islands ************************************************************************* Storm Name: LES Cyclone Number: 14-P Basin: AUS Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 23 1200 14.5 S 141.5 E 1000 25 98 JAN 23 1800 14.5 S 140.0 E 996 30 98 JAN 24 0000 14.0 S 139.5 E 990 40 JTWC: 35kts/13.5S,138.5E 98 JAN 24 0600 13.9 S 138.4 E 980 55 JTWC: 35 kts 98 JAN 24 1200 14.0 S 137.8 E 980 55 JTWC: 40 kts 98 JAN 24 1800 14.0 S 136.5 E 980 55 JTWC: 45 kts 98 JAN 25 0000 14.3 S 135.5 E 990 50 Moved inland 98 JAN 25 0600 14.6 S 134.9 E 45 JTWC Warning 98 JAN 25 1200 14.4 S 133.9 E 35 " " 98 JAN 25 1800 14.5 S 133.1 E Interpolated Position 98 JAN 26 0000 14.5 S 132.2 E 30 JTWC 12-hr Forecast 98 JAN 27 2100 15.0 S 131.0 E 1001 25 98 JAN 28 1800 14.2 S 129.4 E 997 25 JTWC: 35 kts/Over water 98 JAN 29 0000 14.1 S 128.9 E 997 25 JTWC: 35 kts 98 JAN 29 0600 14.5 S 127.9 E 997 30 JTWC: 35 kts 98 JAN 29 1200 14.1 S 127.1 E 998 40 Center moved inland 98 JAN 29 1800 14.8 S 126.9 E 998 40 98 JAN 30 0000 14.9 S 126.6 E 996 45 JTWC: 35 kts 98 JAN 30 0600 15.5 S 126.0 E 996 40 JTWC: 35kts/16.1S,125.1E 98 JAN 30 1200 16.0 S 124.9 E 996 35 JTWC Position/MSW (1-min) 98 JAN 30 1800 16.1 S 124.3 E 996 35 " " " 98 JAN 31 0000 16.5 S 123.7 E 996 45 98 JAN 31 0600 16.8 S 123.1 E 996 40 98 JAN 31 1200 17.4 S 122.8 E 996 40 98 JAN 31 1800 18.1 S 122.5 E 996 35 JTWC: 40 kts 98 FEB 01 0000 18.9 S 122.5 E 997 30 JTWC: 35 kts 98 FEB 01 1200 20.4 S 122.1 E 35 JTWC Warning 98 FEB 02 0000 21.3 S 123.1 E 30 " " ************************************************************************* Storm Name: VICTOR/CINDY Cyclone Number: 22-S Basin: AUS/SIO Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 FEB 10 0000 15.5 S 120.5 E 1000 30 98 FEB 10 0600 15.5 S 119.8 E 1002 30 98 FEB 10 1200 15.4 S 119.0 E 1000 45 98 FEB 10 1800 15.5 S 118.3 E 995 45 98 FEB 11 0000 15.5 S 117.6 E 990 45 98 FEB 11 0600 15.5 S 116.7 E 990 45 98 FEB 11 1200 15.4 S 115.5 E 990 45 98 FEB 11 1800 15.2 S 114.6 E 990 45 98 FEB 12 0000 15.0 S 113.6 E 985 50 98 FEB 12 0600 14.8 S 112.5 E 980 60 98 FEB 12 1200 15.5 S 111.4 E 60 JTWC Position 98 FEB 12 1800 16.1 S 110.1 E 975 60 98 FEB 13 0000 16.8 S 108.9 E 965 65 JTWC: 90 kts 98 FEB 13 0600 17.2 S 107.9 E 965 70 JTWC: 90 kts 98 FEB 13 1200 17.5 S 106.8 E 965 70 JTWC: 90 kts 98 FEB 13 1800 17.6 S 105.6 E 965 70 JTWC: 85 kts 98 FEB 14 0000 18.0 S 104.3 E 965 70 98 FEB 14 0600 18.6 S 102.5 E 970 60 JTWC: 17.9S,103.3E 98 FEB 14 1200 19.0 S 100.8 E 975 55 JTWC: 18.1S,101.6E 98 FEB 14 1800 18.9 S 99.7 E 975 55 JTWC: 18.4S,100.5E 98 FEB 15 0000 18.7 S 99.2 E 985 55 JTWC: 45kts/19.6S,96.2E 98 FEB 15 0300 19.8 S 95.6 E 988 50 Relocation 98 FEB 15 0600 19.9 S 94.7 E 988 50 98 FEB 15 1200 20.2 S 93.1 E 992 40 98 FEB 15 1800 20.6 S 91.9 E 992 40 98 FEB 16 0000 21.2 S 90.7 E 995 35 98 FEB 16 1200 21.6 S 87.1 E 35 JTWC Warning 98 FEB 17 0000 21.7 S 83.0 E 35 " 98 FEB 17 1200 21.5 S 81.0 E 35 " 98 FEB 18 0000 22.6 S 76.3 E 35 " 98 FEB 18 1200 25.3 S 74.9 E 35 " 98 FEB 19 0000 28.5 S 74.8 E 35 " ************************************************************************* Storm Name: MAY Cyclone Number: 25-P Basin: AUS Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 FEB 25 0300 14.8 S 139.1 E 1002 25 98 FEB 25 0600 15.5 S 138.5 E 999 30 98 FEB 25 1200 15.5 S 138.5 E 999 30 98 FEB 25 1800 15.6 S 138.2 E 995 40 98 FEB 26 0000 16.0 S 138.5 E 995 40 JTWC: 35kts/First Wrng 98 FEB 26 0600 16.6 S 138.9 E 990 40 98 FEB 26 1200 17.3 S 138.8 E 995 30 Inland ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST PACIFIC (SWP) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E NOTE: The tracking and intensity information on Southwest Pacific Basin tropical cyclones is taken from real-time operational warnings issued by the Nadi TCWC, Fiji. The MSW are based on a 10-min averaging period. To convert these to equivalent 1-min average winds, multiply by 1.15. However, the wind speed estimates by JTWC or NPMOC, mentioned in the Remarks column, are 1-min average sustained winds. To convert these to equivalent 10-min average winds, multiply by 0.87. (Thanks to Mark Kersemakers for supplying me with some missing points on Wes and Veli as well as the portion of Ursula's track south of 25S for which warnings were issued by New Zealand Meteor- ological Service at Wellington.) JTWC = Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, Marianas Islands NPMOC = Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center, located at Pearl Harbor, on the island of Oahu, Hawaii ************************************************************************* Storm Name: URSULA Cyclone Number: 17-P Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 29 2100 14.6 S 150.8 W Satellite Bulletin 98 JAN 30 0600 15.5 S 150.5 W 998 30 98 JAN 30 1200 15.7 S 150.3 W 996 30 98 JAN 30 1800 16.0 S 147.5 W 990 40 98 JAN 31 0000 16.5 S 146.0 W 987 45 98 JAN 31 0600 18.0 S 144.0 W 985 50 98 JAN 31 1200 19.5 S 142.5 W 980 55 98 JAN 31 1800 21.0 S 140.5 W 980 55 98 FEB 01 0000 22.5 S 138.5 W 980 55 98 FEB 01 0600 25.0 S 136.0 W 980 55 NPMOC: 24.1S,136.6W 98 FEB 01 1200 26.5 S 133.5 W 980 55 98 FEB 01 1800 28.5 S 131.0 W 984 50 NPMOC: 35kts/27.5S,128.4W 98 FEB 02 0000 30.0 S 130.0 W 988 45 98 FEB 02 0600 32.0 S 127.0 W 990 45 Extratropical 98 FEB 02 1200 34.0 S 122.0 W 990 40 NOTE: NPMOC did not issue the first warning on Ursula until 0600 UTC, 1 Feb, when the cyclone was classified as a hurricane with 65-kt winds. Warnings from 01/1200 onward were issued by the Wellington, NZ office. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: VELI Cyclone Number: 18-P Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 31 1200 12.0 S 157.0 W 1000 30 98 JAN 31 1800 12.5 S 155.0 W 997 30 98 FEB 01 0000 13.8 S 152.5 W 995 35 98 FEB 01 0600 14.9 S 150.5 W 990 40 NPMOC: 35kts/15.3S,149.9W 98 FEB 01 1200 15.5 S 149.0 W 990 40 98 FEB 01 1800 16.3 S 147.5 W 987 45 NPMOC: 55kts/17.2S,147.4W 98 FEB 02 0000 18.5 S 146.5 W 980 55 98 FEB 02 0600 19.0 S 146.0 W 980 55 98 FEB 02 1200 19.4 S 145.6 W 980 55 98 FEB 02 1800 21.0 S 143.0 W 987 45 NPMOC: 21.0S,143.9W 98 FEB 02 2100 20.4 S 144.0 W 987 45 Relocation 98 FEB 03 0000 20.8 S 143.9 W 990 40 98 FEB 03 0600 21.3 S 143.9 W 990 40 NPMOC: 35kts/21.8S,143.2W 98 FEB 03 1200 22.8 S 142.8 W 995 35 98 FEB 03 1800 23.0 S 143.0 W 30 NPMOC: 23.1S,143.4W ************************************************************************* Storm Name: WES Cyclone Number: 19-P Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 JAN 31 0600 12.0 S 173.0 W 1000 30 98 JAN 31 1200 12.5 S 173.0 W 1000 30 98 JAN 31 1800 12.5 S 172.0 W 999 30 98 FEB 01 0000 12.0 S 170.0 W 998 30 98 FEB 01 0600 11.7 S 168.5 W 995 35 98 FEB 01 1200 12.0 S 166.7 W 990 40 NPMOC: 12.4S,167.8W 98 FEB 01 1800 12.3 S 165.7 W 990 40 98 FEB 02 0000 13.7 S 164.2 W 987 45 NPMOC: 40kts/13.3S,162.8W 98 FEB 02 0600 12.5 S 163.1 W 987 45 Relocation 98 FEB 02 1200 13.1 S 161.9 W 987 45 98 FEB 02 1800 14.0 S 161.5 W 987 45 98 FEB 03 0000 14.8 S 160.3 W 987 45 98 FEB 03 0600 15.5 S 160.0 W 987 45 98 FEB 03 1200 16.2 S 159.3 W 987 45 NPMOC: 15.7S,160.4W 98 FEB 03 1800 16.6 S 158.9 W 987 45 98 FEB 04 0000 17.0 S 158.5 W 990 40 NPMOC: 35 kts 98 FEB 04 0600 16.9 S 158.7 W 990 40 98 FEB 04 1200 17.5 S 158.6 W 995 35 See Note 98 FEB 04 1800 17.0 S 158.0 W 995 35 See Note 98 FEB 05 0000 17.0 S 159.0 W 997 30 NOTE: Wes was officially downgraded to a depression at 04/1200, but some gales remained in the southern quadrant only. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: Tropical Depression Cyclone Number: NONE Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 FEB 11 0000 11.0 S 163.5 W 1000 25 See Note 98 FEB 11 0600 12.4 S 163.5 W 998 25 98 FEB 11 1200 12.2 S 163.8 W 997 25 98 FEB 11 1800 12.0 S 163.5 W 998 25 98 FEB 12 0000 12.0 S 164.0 W 998 25 98 FEB 12 0600 12.2 S 164.5 W 998 25 98 FEB 12 1200 12.0 S 164.5 W 998 25 98 FEB 12 1800 12.0 S 164.7 W 998 25 98 FEB 13 0000 12.5 S 165.5 W 997 25 98 FEB 13 0600 13.0 S 166.4 W 997 25 98 FEB 13 1200 13.0 S 166.0 W 997 25 98 FEB 13 1800 12.9 S 164.8 W 995 35 Relocation/See Note 98 FEB 14 0000 12.6 S 163.4 W 995 35 98 FEB 14 0600 13.0 S 162.5 W 995 35 98 FEB 14 1200 13.4 S 161.4 W 995 35 98 FEB 14 1800 13.2 S 162.0 W 995 35 Relocation 98 FEB 15 0000 12.5 S 162.0 W 995 30 98 FEB 15 0600 12.5 S 162.0 W 997 30 NOTE: Winds were not actually mentioned in the discussions. I chose to use 25 kts (10-min avg) initially since 30 kts would have implied 35 kts 1-min avg. From 13/1800 to 14/1800 gales were forecast for the southern semi-circle (although according to Mark Kersemakers, it's debatable whether the gales were there). ************************************************************************* Storm Name: Tropical Depression Cyclone Number: NONE Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 FEB 28 0600 11.0 S 164.3 E 998 25 98 FEB 28 1200 11.0 S 164.0 E 998 25 98 FEB 28 1800 11.5 S 164.5 E 998 25 98 MAR 01 0000 11.5 S 165.5 E 998 25 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: Tropical Depression Cyclone Number: NONE Basin: SWP Date Time Lat Lon Cen Pres MSW Remarks (GMT) (mb) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 FEB 28 0600 13.0 S 151.5 W 997 25 98 FEB 28 1200 13.0 S 151.5 W 997 25 98 FEB 28 1800 13.0 S 153.0 W 998 25 98 MAR 01 0000 13.0 S 154.0 W 1000 20 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* *************************************************************************