GARY PADGETT'S GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - APRIL 2006 !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!! ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor- ological Centre for the basin. The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and 3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity; hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. Systems Tracked --------------- Very Severe Cyclonic Storm MALA (BOB0601 / 02B) 24 - 29 Apr ************************************************************************* Storm Name: MALA Cyclone Number: 02B Basin: NIO IMD Cyclonic Storm Number: BOB0601 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 06 APR 24 1200 8.3 N 90.9 E 25 06 APR 24 1800 8.9 N 89.6 E 35 06 APR 25 0000 9.1 N 88.9 E 35 06 APR 25 0600 10.0 N 89.6 E 35 06 APR 25 1200 10.4 N 90.0 E 40 06 APR 25 1800 10.5 N 89.6 E 45 06 APR 26 0600 10.7 N 90.8 E 45 06 APR 26 1200 11.9 N 90.7 E 45 06 APR 26 1800 12.1 N 90.7 E 45 06 APR 27 0000 12.4 N 90.2 E 60 06 APR 27 0600 12.7 N 89.8 E 70 06 APR 27 1200 12.7 N 90.5 E 75 06 APR 27 1800 13.3 N 90.8 E 80 06 APR 28 0000 14.3 N 91.6 E 90 06 APR 28 0600 14.8 N 92.1 E 115 06 APR 28 1200 15.5 N 92.8 E 125 06 APR 28 1800 16.3 N 93.3 E 115 06 APR 29 0000 17.0 N 93.7 E 110 06 APR 29 0600 17.7 N 94.5 E 100 06 APR 29 1200 18.6 N 95.3 E 65 Inland 06 APR 29 1800 19.8 N 97.0 E 35 Note: The starting point for the above track was JTWC's 12-hourly warnings, issued at 0600 and 1800 UTC, beginning at 24/1800 UTC, plus extra warnings issued at 26/1200 and 29/1200 UTC. For the other 1200 UTC times, plus all the 0000 UTC points, I utilized the satellite bulletins from JTWC and AFWA, issued at 1130 and 2330 UTC. There is no track point for 26/0000 UTC as I did not have the satellite bulletins saved. I did have a warning at that time from IMD which placed Mala's center at 10.4N/89.0E, but did not include it as the trend of JTWC's positions at that time was eastward, and including the IMD position would make a westward jog which I did not feel was real. One additional thing--there was no warning issued at the peak intensity time of 28/1200 UTC. However, both JTWC and AFWA assigned Dvorak ratings of T6.5/6.5 at that hour, so it seems likely that Mala reached a peak intensity of 125 kts about that time. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Storm ELIA (MFR-13 / 22S) 06 - 16 Apr ************************************************************************* Storm Name: ELIA Cyclone Number: 22S Basin: SWI/AUW MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 13 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 06 APR 06 0000 7.5 S 87.5 E 1004 20 Locally 25 kts 06 APR 06 1200 7.4 S 85.0 E 1004 20 " 06 APR 07 0000 6.8 S 86.0 E 1004 20 " 06 APR 08 0600 8.6 S 91.4 E 30 AFWA: 9.5S/91.7E 06 APR 08 1200 8.2 S 94.0 E 30 Relocated 06 APR 09 0600 9.0 S 96.0 E 30 06 APR 09 1200 9.2 S 96.2 E 30 06 APR 09 1800 8.7 S 94.9 E 30 06 APR 10 0000 8.9 S 94.5 E 30 06 APR 10 0600 9.8 S 94.8 E 30 06 APR 10 1200 10.1 S 95.3 E 30 06 APR 10 1800 11.0 S 95.0 E 30 AFWA: 10.0S/95.1E 06 APR 11 0000 11.2 S 94.0 E 35 06 APR 11 0600 11.1 S 93.6 E 35 06 APR 11 1200 11.1 S 93.1 E 35 AFWA: 10.6S/92.8E 06 APR 11 1800 11.0 S 92.0 E 1002 30 Perth bulletin 06 APR 12 0300 12.2 S 90.8 E 996 30 " 06 APR 12 1200 13.2 S 90.2 E 35 JTWC warning 06 APR 12 1800 13.1 S 90.0 E 998 30 06 APR 13 0000 13.1 S 90.0 E 998 40 30 JTWC: 13.6S/89.9E 06 APR 13 0600 13.3 S 89.6 E 997 30 Locally 35 kts S semi 06 APR 13 1200 13.4 S 89.5 E 995 45 35 06 APR 13 1800 13.2 S 89.3 E 995 35 06 APR 14 0000 13.6 S 88.6 E 995 45 35 JTWC: 13.5S/89.0E 06 APR 14 0600 14.4 S 88.2 E 987 45 06 APR 14 1200 14.5 S 88.0 E 987 55 45 06 APR 14 1800 14.9 S 87.9 E 987 45 06 APR 15 0000 15.1 S 86.8 E 990 45 40 06 APR 15 0600 15.0 S 86.2 E 994 35 06 APR 15 1200 15.6 S 85.2 E 994 35 06 APR 15 1800 15.9 S 84.9 E 994 35 06 APR 16 0000 16.5 S 84.4 E 994 35 06 APR 16 0600 17.4 S 83.4 E 999 25 Locally 30 kts S semi 06 APR 16 1200 17.8 S 82.7 E 1000 25 Note: There is a slight possibility that Tropical Storm Elia was a redevelopment of a tropical LOW tracked in the Perth region on 26-27 March, but I did not have enough information to make a certain connection; hence, I have treated Elia as a separate entity. The data points in the above track between 08/0600 and 11/1200 UTC, inclusive, were taken from JTWC's satellite fix bulletins as no agency was issuing warnings on the system during that time. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - Longitude 90E to 135E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the Australian centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone HUBERT (21S) 04 - 07 Apr ************************************************************************* Storm Name: HUBERT Cyclone Number: 21S Basin: AUW (Name assigned by Perth TCWC) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 06 APR 04 0300 13.9 S 114.8 E 998 25 06 APR 04 0600 14.1 S 115.4 E 998 30 06 APR 04 1200 14.5 S 115.2 E 998 30 06 APR 04 1800 14.6 S 115.3 E 998 30 06 APR 05 0000 15.5 S 116.5 E 994 30 06 APR 05 0600 16.3 S 116.5 E 992 40 30 06 APR 05 1200 17.0 S 116.3 E 988 45 35 06 APR 05 1800 17.4 S 115.8 E 988 55 35 JTWC: 17.9S/115.4E 06 APR 06 0000 17.6 S 115.9 E 986 55 40 JTWC: 18.1S/115.7E 06 APR 06 0600 18.3 S 115.6 E 982 55 45 06 APR 06 1200 19.0 S 115.2 E 978 55 50 06 APR 06 1800 19.7 S 115.0 E 975 55 50 06 APR 07 0000 19.9 S 114.9 E 970 55 55 JTWC: 20.4S/115.1E 06 APR 07 0600 20.4 S 114.7 E 978 55 50 06 APR 07 1200 21.4 S 115.4 E 990 45 40 06 APR 07 1500 21.5 S 115.5 E 996 33 Final BoM warning 06 APR 07 1800 21.7 S 115.7 E 30 JTWC warning/Inland ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - Longitude 135E to 160E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Darwin, Northern Territory; Brisbane, Queensland; and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the Australian centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Severe Tropical Cyclone MONICA (23P) 16 - 26 Apr ************************************************************************* Storm Name: MONICA Cyclone Number: 23P Basin: AUE/AUW (Name assigned by Brisbane TCWC) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 06 APR 16 1130 9.5 S 151.4 E 25 25 JTWC satellite bulletin 06 APR 16 1800 10.9 S 150.5 E 30 30 " 06 APR 17 0000 12.4 S 150.0 E 995 35 40 06 APR 17 0600 12.5 S 149.6 E 995 40 06 APR 17 1200 12.6 S 149.4 E 990 55 45 06 APR 17 1800 12.6 S 148.5 E 985 50 06 APR 18 0000 12.9 S 147.8 E 980 60 60 06 APR 18 0600 13.5 S 146.6 E 975 60 06 APR 18 1200 13.0 S 145.6 E 970 70 70 06 APR 18 1800 12.9 S 144.8 E 965 80 06 APR 19 0000 12.9 S 144.3 E 960 85 80 06 APR 19 0600 13.1 S 143.4 E 960 75 06 APR 19 1200 13.6 S 142.6 E 965 80 70 Over Cape York Penin. 06 APR 19 1800 13.7 S 142.0 E 980 55 06 APR 20 0000 13.6 S 141.5 E 985 60 50 In Gulf of Carpentaria 06 APR 20 0600 14.0 S 140.7 E 980 55 06 APR 20 1200 13.8 S 140.4 E 980 65 55 06 APR 20 1800 13.6 S 140.2 E 960 75 06 APR 21 0000 13.4 S 140.0 E 960 90 75 06 APR 21 0600 13.2 S 139.9 E 950 90 06 APR 21 1200 13.1 S 139.7 E 945 100 95 06 APR 21 1800 12.8 S 139.5 E 945 95 06 APR 22 0000 12.6 S 139.4 E 945 115 100 06 APR 22 0600 12.4 S 139.2 E 935 110 06 APR 22 1200 12.1 S 138.7 E 925 125 125 06 APR 22 1800 11.7 S 138.5 E 925 125 06 APR 23 0000 11.4 S 138.0 E 925 140 125 06 APR 23 0600 11.4 S 137.4 E 905 135 06 APR 23 1200 11.3 S 136.7 E 905 145 135 06 APR 23 1800 11.3 S 135.8 E 910 135 06 APR 24 0000 11.4 S 135.2 E 915 155 135 06 APR 24 0600 11.7 S 134.4 E 915 155 135 06 APR 24 1200 12.0 S 133.7 E 935 100 Inland 06 APR 24 1800 12.7 S 132.7 E 980 40 50 06 APR 25 0000 12.6 S 131.4 E 990 35 06 APR 25 0600 12.3 S 130.7 E 998 30 Near coast 06 APR 25 1200 12.3 S 130.5 E 998 30 06 APR 25 1800 12.7 S 130.2 E 995 30 06 APR 26 0000 13.2 S 129.9 E 1000 25 06 APR 26 0600 13.6 S 129.4 E 1001 20 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* !!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!! To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/ advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and analysts at the several warning centers. For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere: SPECIAL NOTE: Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following websites: PREPARED BY: Gary Padgett garyp@alaweb.com SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY: Michael V. Padua michaelpadua@hotmail.com webmaster@typhoon2000.ph ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Posted: 05.22.06 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com