GARY PADGETT'S MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY AUGUST, 2004 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) ************************************************************************* SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't, I wanted to include them. After a couple of months, I will move this note to the ending section of the summary. (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information --------------------------------------- Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be retrieved from the following FTP site: Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance messages may be found at the following URL: Links are also included to websites with further information about the U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air- craft Operations Center. (2) Archived Advisories ----------------------- All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories, strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an example), the archived products can be found at: Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at the following URL: I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but if I learn of any, I will add them to this list. (3) Satellite Imagery --------------------- Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites, courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The links are: On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is located in the lower left portion of the screen. I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list. ************************************************************************* AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS --> Destructive hurricane strikes southwestern Florida communities --> Large severe hurricane strikes Bahamas and southeastern Florida --> China struck by two typhoons--one very deadly --> Two intense typhoons pass through Marianas en route to Japan --> Typhoon grazes southeastern South Korea ************************************************************************* ***** Feature of the Month for August ***** SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES 2004 - 2005 SEASON and NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the AUSTRALIAN REGION The Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintains three Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC): Perth, Western Australia; Darwin, Northern Territory; and Brisbane, Queensland. Each centre is allotted a separate list of tropical cyclone names for tropical cyclones forming within its area of responsibility (AOR). In addition a TCWC located at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG)--a former Australian territory-- maintains a list of native names to assign to the very rare tropical cyclones which form within its AOR. The AORs of the respective centres are: (1) Perth - 125E westward to 90E and south of 10S. Currently, and for at least the next few years, the Perth TCWC will issue warnings for any systems north of 10S and south and west of the Indonesian islands. (2) Darwin - 125E eastward to 138E and extending northward to the equator. There is a little irregularity with the eastern border in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The Darwin TCWC issues High Seas Warnings for the entire Gulf of Carpentaria, but Brisbane issues Tropical Cyclone Advices and names cyclones in the eastern portion of the Gulf. Also, currently, and for at least the next few years, the Darwin TCWC will issue warnings for any systems west of 125E and within the Indonesian archipelago in the Banda, Flores, and Java Seas. (3) Brisbane - 138E eastward to 160E and generally south of 10S. The northern border with the Port Moresby AOR is somewhat irregular. (4) Port Moresby, PNG - immediate vicinity of the island of New Guinea and eastward to 160E generally north of 10S although the southern border is somewhat irregular. Names for the 2004-2005 season (** indicates name has already been assigned): Perth Darwin Brisbane Port Moresby ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Phoebe ** George Harvey Guba Raymond Helen Ingrid Ila Sally Ira Jim Kama Tim Jasmine Kate Matere Vivienne Kim Larry Rowe Willy Laura Monica Tako Adeline Matt Nelson Bertie Narelle Odette Clare Oswald Pierre Daryl Penny Rebecca Emma Sandy Floyd Tania Glenda Vernon Hubert Wendy Isobel Alfred TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN and the SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) at Nadi, Fiji, has tropical cyclone warning responsibility for the South Pacific east of 160E and from the equator to 25S. The Meteorological Service of New Zealand at Wellington has warning responsibility for waters south of 25S, but almost all tropical cyclones in this basin form north of 25S. When a rare cyclone forms in the Wellington area of responsibility (AOR), it usually will be assigned a name from the Fiji list (such as was done for Tropical Cyclone Gita in February, 1999.) Tropical cyclone warning responsibility for South Indian waters west of 90E are shared by several TCWCs. The Regional Specialty Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the region is the office of Meteo France on the island of La Reunion. However, following a long-standing practice, the sub-regional centres at Mauritius and Madagascar share the responsibility for actually naming tropical storms with Mauritius naming systems east of 55E and Madagascar covering the area west of 55E. RSMC La Reunion issues warnings for the basin independently of these sub-regional centres, but only advises regarding when or when not to assign a name to a developing cyclone. Names for the 2004-2005 season (** indicates name has already been assigned): Southwest Indian South Pacific ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Arola ** Neddy Judy Urmil Bento ** Ouledi Kerry Vaianu Chambo Patricia Lola Wati Daren Qiqita Meena Xavier Ernest Ramon Nancy Yani Felapi Sopani Olaf Zita Gerard Tina Percy Arthur Hennie Ula Rae Becky Isang Vera Sheila Cliff Juliet Willem Tam Daman Kalo Xaoka Lilian Yelda Madi Zuze TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTH INDIAN OCEAN Several years ago a proposal was made at a meeting of the WMO/ESCAP Tropical Cyclone Committee to study the possibility of assigning names to the tropical cyclones of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. It took a few years to work out all the details and secure the consent of all the nations involved as well as to draft and approve a set of names, but by the summer of 2004 all the hurdles had been overcome and formal naming of tropical cyclones in this basin was set to begin on an experimental basis in September, 2004. IMD didn't have long to wait to assign the first name--Severe Cyclonic Storm Onil formed very early in October in the Arabian Sea. The procedure for assigning names in the North Indian Ocean is similar to that in place for the Western North Pacific basin. Eight countries--Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand--contributed eight names each. The names are arranged in eight columns with the nations listed in alphabetical order. All the names in Column One will be used, followed by the names in Column Two, etc. The first eight names to be allotted in the North Indian Ocean basin are (** indicates name has already been assigned): Onil ** (Bangladesh) Agni ** (India) Hibaru (Maldives) Pyarr (Myanmar) Baaz (Oman) Fanoos (Pakistan) Mala (Sri Lanka) Mukda (Thailand) *********************************************************************** ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for August: 4 tropical storms 1 hurricane 3 intense hurricanes Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida: discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. An interesting article discussing the atmospheric circulation patterns which led to the incredibly active and destructive Atlantic hurricane season, as well as information on the effects of individual cyclones, can be found on CSU's atmospheric sciences website at the following URL: Atlantic Tropical Activity for August ------------------------------------- Following a stormless June and July, tropical cyclone activity exploded in August to produce the most active month of August on record. The average statistics for August (based on 1950-2003) are: 2.7 NS, 1.5 H, and 0.6 IH with an NTC of 24%. During August, 2004, a record eight tropical storms developed with four reaching hurricane intensity. Three of the hurricanes became intense hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale), and the NTC for August was a staggering 84%. And all of the cyclones except Hurricane Danielle had an impact on land. Hurricane Alex passed a scant 10 miles off Cape Hatteras while a Category 2 hurricane, and later reached Category 3 status north of the 38th parallel while moving northeastward over the warm Gulf Stream waters south of the Canadian Maritimes. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near St. Marks, FL, while Hurricane Charley was gathering steam in the Caribbean. Charley struck western Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, weakened slightly after crossing the island, then rapidly intensified into a strong Category 4 hurricane before making landfall near Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, FL. The storm crossed the Peninsula, maintaining hurricane intensity, and exited near Jacksonville. Charley continued north-northeastward and made a second U. S. landfall in South Carolina. Hurricane Danielle formed in mid-month near the Cape Verdes but moved northward over the eastern Atlantic, becoming an impressive Category 2 hurricane. Tropical Storm Earl formed at the same time as Danielle and moved through the southern Windwards as a tropical storm, but lost its circulation and was downgraded to a tropical wave in the southeastern Caribbean. Earl's remnants continued westward, reaching the Eastern Pacific several days later and ultimately redeveloping into Hurricane Frank. Tropical Storms Gaston and Hermine were twins forming late in the month along an old frontal boundary stretching eastward into the Atlantic from the southeastern U. S. coast. Gaston formed near the coast and struck South Carolina as a strong tropical storm near hurri- cane intensity. Hermine formed from another LOW along the same frontal trough west of Bermuda and moved northward, eventually reaching south- eastern Massachusetts as a weak tropical storm. (NOTE: Gaston has been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane at landfall during a post-storm review of all the data.) Mighty Hurricane Frances formed on 25 August about midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Frances moved relentlessly on a west- northwesterly track which carried it north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico as it became a large, severe Category 4 hurricane. Frances slashed its way through the Bahamas, gradually weakening to Category 2 levels during the process. The storm made landfall in southeastern Florida as a very large, slow-moving Category 2 hurricane--not "major" by Saffir/Simpson standards, but still causing major damage as it crossed the Peninsula. Frances emerged into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and made a final landfall as a tropical storm near St. Marks, FL. A strong tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa very late in August and passed through the Cape Verde Islands on the 31st. The system was quite well-organized at one point, and SAB assigned a Dvorak classification of T2.5/2.5 at 31/1800 UTC. However, the convection quickly began to diminish and the system was not classified as a tropical depression at the time. The weak LOW persisted, however, and over a week later, on 9 September, was briefly upgraded to tropical depression status. (This system will be mentioned in the September summary.) A special thanks to Kevin Boyle for writing the reports on Danielle, Earl, Gaston and Hermine. NOTE: The official TPC/NHC storm reports for Hurricane Gaston and Tropical Storm Hermine, as well as some earlier and later tropical cyclones, are now available online at the following link: HURRICANE ALEX (TC-01) 31 July - 7 August -------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- The first tropical cyclone of what has turned out to be one of the most active Atlantic seasons on record had its roots in an upper-level LOW which interacted with a surface trough--a fairly common mode of tropical cyclone formation in the subtropics. On the afternoon of 27 July an area of showers associated with a weak surface trough was located about 435 nm east of the northwestern Bahamas. Over the next couple of days the elongated trough, interacting with an upper-level LOW, produced numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over a wide area extending eastward from the Bahamas several hundred miles. Convection had become more concentrated by the morning of the 29th, and upper-level winds were becoming a little more favorable for development. Visible satellite pictures on the morning of 30 July indicated that a LLCC was forming about 235 nm east-northeast of Freeport in the Bahamas. A U. S. Air Force Reserves reconnaissance aircraft flew into the area during the afternoon and found a broad circulation centered approximately 240 nm east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Convection was still somewhat disorganized but the environment appeared favorable for further develop- ment. However, overnight convection diminished and upper-level winds increased again, leading to a loss of organization. At 0930 UTC on the 31st the weak circulation was centered about 150 nm east of northern Florida and was not well-organized. But during the morning hours the downhill trend reversed and the LOW appeared to be gaining in organiza- tion. A reconnaissance mission during the morning did not find a well- defined surface circulation, but did report winds of 20-25 kts to the east of the LOW, which was located about 175 nm east of St. Augustine at 1530 UTC. During the afternoon the LOW continued to exhibit increasing convective organization, and based on this plus a 30-kt intensity estimate from TAFB, the first advisory on Tropical Depression 01 was issued at 2100 UTC. The depression's center was located about 150 nm south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and drifting toward the northwest at 8 kts. B. Synoptic History ------------------- A reconnaissance plane during the evening of the 31st could find no center, but a QuikScat pass just before the evening advisory confirmed that TD-01 consisted of a broad circulation with 20-25 kt winds. Strong northeasterly flow was impinging on the depression, keeping the broad center on the northern edge of the deeper convection. The MSW was upped to 30 kts at 1500 UTC on 1 August based on reconnaissance FLWs of 33 and 36 kts and a visual surface estimate of 30 kts. Another flight early in the afternoon found 41-kt winds at 300 m with a visual surface esti- mate of 35 kts. On this basis, TD-01 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Alex at 1800 UTC, located about 70 nm south-southeast of Charleston, SC, and essentially stationary. There were signs that the circulation was gradually getting better organized, although the aforementioned shear was preventing the well-defined mid-level circulation noted in radar imagery from aligning with any of the many low-level swirls that were continuing to pop out on the north side of the convection. Early on the morning of 2 August radar imagery indicated that the core of Alex was becoming much better organized, and a reconnaissance flight into the storm found that the CP had fallen to 992 mb and measured peak 850-mb winds of 62 kts. A special advisory was issued at 1200 UTC, upping the winds to 50 kts. The center was relocated to a position about 105 nm south-southeast of Charleston, SC, and drifting eastward. As the upper-level shear pattern changed, so Alex's structure evolved with the strong central convection shifting east of the center with a well- developed band in the southeast quadrant. The drop in pressure leveled off during the afternoon for a time, concurrent with the formation of a 20-mile wide eye that was open to the southeast. Later in the evening another flight found that Alex had a 10-nm diameter eye with a surface pressure of 987 mb and FLWs of 69 kts. Alex's MSW was upped to 60 kts in the 03/0300 UTC advisory, based primarily on the central pressure. The storm at this time was moving northeastward at 8 kts, but an approaching mid-level trough over the Missouri River valley was forecast to dig a little more southward before pushing eastward, an event which would likely lead to a more south-southwesterly steering flow that would help to pull Alex northward toward the North Carolina coast. In an intermediate advisory at 03/0600 UTC, Alex was upgraded to the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Alex was then centered about 65 nm south-southeast of Wilmington, NC, moving northeastward at 8 kts. A reconnaissance mission had found 850-mb winds of 81 kts along with a CP of 983 mb. Afterward, the Wilmington and Newport WSR-88D radars had shown 85-kt winds at around 2500 metres. The radar imagery revealed an eyewall in constant flux--occasionally fully-closed and occasionally open to the southwest, likely due to upper-level southwesterly flow impinging on the cyclone. Alex's intensity took another jump, rather unexpected, at 1500 UTC up to Category 2 status. The pressure had fallen to 972 mb, and a reconnaissance aircraft found peak FLWs of 105 kts at 1135 UTC. Around 1700 UTC the center of Hurricane Alex passed only 10 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, bringing sustained Category 1 hurricane winds to the Outer Banks. The maximum winds at the time were 85 kts, but the strongest winds were in the eastern semicircle--away from the coast. The storm by this time was embedded in the deep-layer south- westerly flow to the north of the subtropical ridge and was moving north- eastward at 15 kts. By 0300 UTC on the 4th Alex was already 150 nm east-northeast of Cape Hatteras. An evening reconnaissance flight had found a peak FLW of 87 kts, so the MSW was decreased to 80 kts. By 1500 UTC on 4 August Alex had reached a position about 350 nm east-northeast of Cape Hatteras and was accelerating out to sea at about 17 kts. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates had come down a bit, but Alex was still a healthy Category 1 hurricane with the MSW decreased to only 75 kts. Six hours later it was obvious that Alex had intensified once more. Based on a consensus of Dvorak estimates, the MSW was raised to 90 kts, making Alex a Category 2 hurricane once more. The storm was just south of the north wall of the Gulf Stream over SSTs between 26C and 27C. But an even bigger surprise was in store. Alex continued to intensify during the evening hours of 4 August with CI numbers from TAFB and SAB reaching 102 kts and a 3-hour AODT average of 105 kts. Other Data-T and ODT numbers also supported increasing the MSW to 105 kts, making Alex the first intense hurricane (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale) of the season. Alex became the strongest intense hurricane on record to develop north of the 38th parallel, with Hurricane Ellen of 1973 coming in second at 100 kts. Alex and Ellen are the only two known hurricanes to reach 100 kts at such a high latitude. In the case of Alex, SSTs were running more than 2 Deg C above average in the area. At the time of the 05/0300 UTC advisory Alex was located south of Nova Scotia, or about 700 nm southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and moving east-northeastward at 22 kts. Alex held on to its peak intensity for a period of 18 hours. Cloud tops continued to cool during the morning of 5 August, reaching temp- eratures of -65 to -75 C. By 1500 UTC cloud tops were beginning to warm, but Dvorak classifications were unchanged at T5.5. Alex was then located about 350 nm southwest of Cape Race, racing east-northeastward at 30 kts. By afternoon the eye was becoming less distinct and cloud top temperatures were continuing to warm as the hurricane began to move over colder waters. The MSW was reduced to 90 kts at 2100 UTC, and further to 75 kts at 06/0300 UTC. Data from a 05/2210 UTC SSM/I overpass suggested that the LLCC was beginning to decouple from the mid and upper- level circulations. Around 2200 UTC Alex's eye went almost directly over Canadian buoy 44140, which reported a minimum SLP of 979.3 mb. Deep convection decreased significantly during the early hours of the 6th of August, and by 0900 UTC was confined to a few clusters in the eastern semicircle. The intensity was set to 65 kts based on a average of satellite classifications and the rapid forward motion (45 kts). The final NHC advisory was issued at 06/1500 UTC and placed the center of Alex about 750 nm east of Cape Race. The MSW was reduced to 50 kts and the cyclone was rapidly becoming extratropical as it raced over the cold North Atlantic waters. By 0000 UTC on 7 August Alex's remnants consisted of a 35-kt gale center located approximately 500 nm northeast of the northwesternmost Azores. I received the following e-mail from Kevin Boyle regarding the "afterlife" of Alex: "Alex became a deep depression (975 mb) and has parked itself to the west of the British Isles where it will remain throughout the coming week. At present it is advecting a lot of warm, humid air and temp- eratures failed to fall below 19 C (DP of 19 C) last night (night of 8 August). Bracknell surface charts indicate that the filling Alex will cross Britain as a weakening feature towards the weekend. Torrential downpours are expected throughout the week and there is a concern for flooding in places, especially after the heavy rain and thunderstorms at the end of last week." C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ A NOAA buoy located near Frying Pan Shoals reported a wind gust of 43 kts shortly after midnight on 3 August. Later the buoy reported sustained winds of 33 kts, gusting to 41 kts. Around midday on the 3rd there was an unofficial report of sustained winds to 43 kts with a peak gust of 73 kts from Okracoke Island. Another unofficial report was received from Hatteras Village of sustained winds to 57 kts, gusting to 75 kts. Unofficial sustained winds of 63 kts and a peak gust of 89 kts were reported from near Cape Hatteras by two private firms, Weatherflow, Inc. and the Hurricane Intercept Research Team, respectively. Additionally, Weatherflow, Inc. measured a 5-min avg wind of 65 kts at Avon Pier around 1735 UTC. D. Casualties and Damage ------------------------ There were no known casualties associated with Hurricane Alex. Estimates place the damage in the Outer Banks at around $2.5 million. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL STORM BONNIE (TC-02) 3 - 14 August ----------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- Shower activity associated with a tropical wave which had moved off the western African coast in late July began to show signs of increased organization on the morning of 31 July several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Late in the afternoon the main action was located about 520 nm west-southwest of the islands and propagating westward at 17 kts. The STWO from TPC/NHC indicated that some slow development was possible. Subsequent days saw the wave continue to move rather rapidly across the tropical Atlantic, gradually increasing in organization. By early morning on 3 August the wave had reached a point about 460 nm east of the Windward Islands. Organization had improved to the point that advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression 02 at 03/1500 UTC. The depression's center was estimated to be about 400 nm east of the Lesser Antilles and was moving westward at 18 kts. The initial MSW was estimated at 25 kts. There was some question as to whether the rapidly moving system had a closed surface circulation, but the case for this was made based on an analysis of QuikScat data. B. Synoptic History ------------------- The depression continued rapidly westward toward the Windward Islands. The center was located about 40 nm north-northwest of Barbados at 0600 UTC on 4 August and just east of St. Lucia three hours later. Whether or not there was actually a closed LLCC continued to be a matter of uncertainty. The MSW, initially set at 25 kts, was upped to 30 kts at 04/0300 UTC based on CI estimates of 35 and 30 kts from TAFB and SAB, respectively, plus some near 30-kt uncontaminated wind vectors from a 03/2208 UTC QuikScat overpass. By early morning of the 4th convection had become more concentrated, but surface pressures suggested that there was not a closed circulation. A reconnaissance plane reached the area during the morning and found a very sharp wind shift and some south- southwesterly winds at 760 m, but was not able to close off a circu- lation. Since most dynamical model guidance was indicating that the system would soon slow down, it was carried as a tropical depression in the 04/1500 UTC advisory. However, by afternoon the convection had become elongated in an east-west direction and less concentrated, so TD-02 was downgraded to a tropical wave at 2100 UTC about 330 nm south- southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. No sooner had TD-02 been downgraded than it looked like it might be about to stage a comeback. During the evening hours of 4 August convection became more concentrated about 150 nm east of Bonaire, and the wave was moving slower at about 15 kts, the slower movement making reformation of a surface LOW possible. However, no new circulation formed and by the next day upper-level winds had become less favorable for development. Over the next few days the remnant tropical wave continued rapidly westward across the Caribbean, generating showers and thunderstorms over a wide area in the Greater Antilles and the central and western Caribbean Sea. On the 7th the system appeared much weaker and wasn't even mentioned in the 07/2130 UTC STWO. However, by the afternoon of the 8th disturbed weather had become better organized over the extreme northwestern Caribbean and some potential for develop- ment was noted in the afternoon STWO. During the evening a tight vortex spun up over the Yucatan Channel, as seen in radar imagery. Likely this feature was at mid-levels, but was a harbinger of things to come. By early morning of 9 August the system had entered the Gulf of Mexico and was located about 65 nm north of Cancun. A reconnaissance plane visited the area around midday and found a very small surface circulation with a 450-m FLW of 56 kts. Advisories were re-initiated on the system, which was christened Tropical Storm Bonnie, at 2100 UTC with the center located about 355 nm south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The initial warning intensity was set at 40 kts, and the lowest CP reported by the aircraft was 1007 mb. Winds were increased to 45 kts at 10/0300 UTC after an evening reconnaissance mission found a 7-nm diameter closed eyewall. However, the eyewall soon deteriorated somewhat and expanded to 17 nm. It is unusual to see a closed eyewall in a storm of less than hurricane intensity. Bonnie's initial northwesterly motion became northerly on the 10th as a shortwave trough moving into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico weakened the ridge to the north. The intensity reached a temporary peak of 50 kts at 1500 UTC after a dropsonde reported 70-kt winds a couple hundred feet above the surface with surface winds of 51 kts. However, central convection diminished somewhat during the afternoon and by 11/0300 UTC the MSW had been lowered to 40 kts. Bonnie's intensity fluctuated up and down several times during its 3-day trek across the Gulf of Mexico-- something rather common in very small tropical cyclones. At 2100 UTC on 10 August Bonnie was centered about 275 nm south of the Mississippi River's mouth, moving slowly north at 5 kts. Gales extended outward from the center 40 nm in the southern quadrants and only 25 nm to the north. Bonnie continued to experience ups and downs on 11 August. During the morning the cyclone became much better organized with a burst of convection with cloud tops as cold as -83 C forming over the center. Buoy 42001, located about 45 nm northeast of Bonnie's center, reported a 10-min avg wind of 41 kts with a gust to 52 kts. Gradient wind computations using a 10-mb pressure difference between the center and the buoy indicated that 50-kt winds were possible. Based on this, the 1500 UTC advisory MSW was conservatively increased to 45 kts. A later report from the buoy reported a gust to 66 kts, so the MSW was increased to 55 kts in the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. In response to an unseasonably strong deep-layer trough over the central U. S., by 1800 UTC Bonnie had made the expected sharp turn to the northeast. The storm was then located about 180 nm south of the mouth of the Mississippi and moving northeast at about 10 kts. After the tremendous burst of deep convection observed during the morning, Bonnie's convection leveled off. During the afternoon the tight inner wind core which had been present for the past three days collapsed, leaving the maximum winds in a band of convection removed from the center. An evening reconnaissance flight found peak FLWs of only 30 kts, even though CI estimates were 45 and 55 kts. Since it was possible that the aircraft had not sampled the strongest winds, the MSW was reduced to only 50 kts at 12/0300 UTC, although the forecaster commented that this might be generous. Bonnie accelerated toward the northeast as the morning of 12 August progressed. Winds were decreased to 45 kts at 0900 UTC, but were upped slightly to 50 kts in the 1200 UTC intermediate advisory. Bonnie was then centered only about 70 nm southwest of Apalachicola, FL, and was moving northeastward at about 20 kts. By 1500 UTC Bonnie was weakening once more and the cloud pattern was becoming elongated, suggesting that extratropical transition was underway. The center of Bonnie hugged the coast from near Apalachicola east-northeastward to near the head of Apalachee Bay where the center finally made landfall. At 1800 UTC the center of the weakening cyclone was located inland about 50 km south- east of Tallahassee, FL, moving toward the east-northeast at 24 kts. Maximum winds had decreased to 35 kts, and at 2100 UTC Bonnie was down- graded to a depression. The cloud pattern was by then becoming associated with a frontal system. This was the final advisory package issued by NHC as the responsibility for issuing advisories was handed over to HPC. Bonnie's remnants sped northeastward across the coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas and by the afternoon of the 13th had moved out to sea off the coast of Virginia. By 14/0000 UTC the LOW was off the New England coast, speeding north-northeastward, and apparently was soon absorbed by an extratropical LOW to the north. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ While Bonnie was over the Gulf of Mexico, ship H3GQ reported 40-kt southwest winds 40 nm south of the center at 1800 UTC on 10 August. On the morning of the 12th, the center of Bonnie passed very near NOAA buoy 42039, which reported gusts to 45 kts with a minimum SLP of 1002.7 mb. The following rainfall observations were gleaned from the HPC storm summaries. Perry, FL, had a storm total of 79 mm, while Athens and Augusta, GA, both netted 53 mm in association with Bonnie. During the six hours ending at 0600 UTC on 13 August, Hunter, GA, and North Myrtle Beach, SC, recorded 72 mm and 75 mm, respectively. The only location recording a 24-hour total exceeding 100 mm was North Myrtle Beach, SC, which measured 108 mm in the 24 hours ending at 1200 UTC on the 13th. A little further north, Newport, NC, recorded a storm total of 65 mm, and Cherry Point, NC, measured 75 mm in the 30-hour period ending at 13/1800 UTC. NOTE: More detailed rainfall information can be found in the HPC advisories on Bonnie, which are archived on HPC's website: C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Damage from Tropical Storm Bonnie was minimal. The storm was responsible for three deaths in North Carolina due to tornadoes spawned by the weakening cyclone. (Report written by Gary Padgett) HURRICANE CHARLEY (TC-03) 9 - 16 August ------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- A tropical wave moved off the western coast of Africa on 4 August. The system moved rapidly westward with little sign of development until the 8th, when it was located some 750 nm east of the Windward Islands. Even then, associated thunderstorm activity was not well-organized. On the early morning of the 9th the wave was located about 130 nm east of the Windwards, moving west-northwestward at 22 kts with no signs of tropical cyclone formation. However, later on during the morning showers and thunderstorms became much better organized and surface pressures had fallen significantly over the islands. A Special Tropical Disturbance Statement was issued at 1345 UTC which noted that Barbados had reported wind gusts to 46 kts during the previous couple of hours. Subsequent surface observations from Trinidad and Margarita showed west-southwest and west-northwest winds, respectively, of about 10 kts, establishing the fact that a surface circulation existed. Hence, advisories were initiated at 1745 UTC on Tropical Depression 03, located about 45 nm southeast of Grenada and moving westward at 19 kts. Visible satellite imagery depicted a very well-organized system with distinct banding features. TD-03 was forecast to intensify to hurricane intensity in 72 hours. B. Synoptic History ------------------- TD-03 faired rather well as it traversed the typically unfavorable southeastern Caribbean Sea. During the evening banding appeared less impressive than earlier, but new convection formed near the center of circulation. At 0900 UTC on 10 August the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley, located about 390 nm south-southeast of Santo Domingo and moving west-northwestward at 21 kts. The cyclone had become better organized overnight, and even though outer bands of deep convection were currently minimal, the circulation occupied a large envelope and outflow was excellent in all directions. Dvorak classi- fications from all agencies were T2.5. As the day progressed Charley slowly became better organized, and the first U. S. Air Force Reserves reconnaissance flight into the storm, around 2000 UTC, found a tight center with a CP of 999 mb and peak FLWs of 72 kts just to the northeast of the center. Based on the aircraft data and a CI estimate of 55 kts from TAFB, Charley's MSW was increased to 55 kts at 11/0300 UTC. The storm was still moving rapidly west-northwestward from a position about 260 nm east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The reconnaissance mission into the storm around 11/0600 UTC found that the CP had dropped to 995 mb with a closed eyewall present. A flight around midday found peak FLWs of 80 kts at 850 mb; hence, Charley was upgraded to the season's second hurricane at 1800 UTC when located approximately 80 nm south of Kingston, Jamaica. The young hurricane was moving west-northwestward at the slightly slower pace of 16 kts. During the evening Charley was sporting a small, closed eyewall of only 8 nm as it began to turn slightly more toward the northwest. The storm continued to strengthen during the night--winds were upped to 75 kts at 12/0600 UTC. An upper-level LOW to the west had been inhibiting outflow in that sector, but this feature began retreating westward away from the cyclone, leading to a lessening of shear and improved outflow. By 1500 UTC Charley was moving northwestward at 15 kts, and the track gradually became more north-northwesterly as the day progressed. In an inter- mediate advisory at 1800 UTC, Charley's MSW was upped to 90 kts, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The hurricane was then located about 165 nm south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. This upgrade was based on a peak FLW of 105 kts and a 92-kt dropsonde surface wind. The CP was only down to 980 mb, but the storm was moving into a region of higher-than-average surface pressures, implying that the usual pressure/wind relationship might not be valid. At 13/0300 UTC Hurricane Charley was moving north-northwestward toward the southern coast of Cuba, being located between the Isle of Youth and the Cuban mainland about 45 nm south of Havana. By 0600 UTC the hurri- cane had almost crossed the island and was situated only 22 km west of downtown Havana. Even though operationally Charley was a Category 2 hurricane when it reached Cuba, meteorological observations from the island indicate that the hurricane had reached intense hurricane status, or Category 3 on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The maximum 1-min avg wind recorded in Cuba was 103 kts with a minimum SLP of 966 mb. A storm surge of 3.7 m was measured in Playa Cajio along the southern coast of Havana Province. (More of the Cuban observations follow in Section C.) Reconnaissance observations revealed that Charley did not weaken very much at all after crossing Cuba. Shortly after the eye had cleared the northern coast, a plane found a CP of 970 mb with peak 700-mb winds of 104 kts. Also, Key West radar showed Doppler winds higher than 100 kts. The MSW was upped to 95 kts at 0900 UTC. Things began to happen very rapidly and dramatically during the morning of Friday, 13 August. An eyewall dropsonde around 13/1200 UTC indicated that the MSW was still near 95 kts, but the CP had dropped 5 mb to 965 mb between 1200 and 1400 UTC. By 1500 UTC Charley's motion had become northerly at 16 kts, and two hours later the storm was moving north-northeastward at 18 kts. The 1700 UTC intermediate advisory upgraded Charley to a Category 3 hurricane with 110-kt winds, located about 60 nm south-southwest of Ft. Myers, FL. At about the same time, a reconnaissance aircraft found that the pressure had fallen further to 954 mb and measured a peak FLW of 141 kts. On this basis, a special advisory was issued at 1800 UTC upgrading Charley to a Category 4 hurricane with a MSW of 125 kts. Charley's pressure continued to fall, and the final reconnaissance fix at 1956 UTC, just before the eye reached the coast, found a CP of 941 mb and a peak FLW of 148 kts. The eye of Charley moved inland near Cayo Costa around 2000 UTC. The operational MSW at the time of landfall was 125 kts, and this value has been widely reported in the media as the landfall intensity. However, the 13/2100 UTC NHC discussion bulletin noted that the FLW of 148 kts corresponds to a surface MSW of 130 kts, and I have learned from a reliable source that in all probability Charley's official landfall intensity will be 130 kts. An unofficial gust of 110 kts was recorded near Punta Gorda along with a 943.6 mb surface pressure. Charley began weakening as it moved quickly north- northeastward across the Florida Peninsula. At 2300 UTC the center was about 100 km south-southwest of Orlando with the MSW estimated at 100 kts, and by 14/0300 UTC had passed very near that city and was nearing the Atlantic coast near Daytona Beach. The estimated MSW had decreased to 75 kts by this time, based on surface and WSR-88D Doppler wind data. By 0600 UTC on 14 August the center of Hurricane Charley had emerged into the Atlantic just off the Florida coast and was located about 165 nm south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina. A reconnaissance plane found peak FLWs of 88 kts in the eastern quadrant with a CP of 994 mb, so the MSW remained at 75 kts in the 14/0900 UTC advisory. By 1200 UTC the storm was located about 30 nm south-southeast of Charleston and was racing to the north-northeast at 25 kts. At 1500 UTC radar and surface observations indicated that the center of Charley was on the coast near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with the CP down to 989 mb. The MSW by this time had dropped to 65 kts, and the former Category 4 hurricane was downgraded to a tropical storm three hours later when located over eastern North Carolina about 55 km north of Wilmington. Wrightsville Beach reported a sustained wind of 61 kts at 1736 UTC, so the MSW was held at 60 kts for the 2100 UTC advisory. At 15/0000 UTC the center of Tropical Storm Charley was located just east of Virginia Beach, Virginia, and racing northeastward at 29 kts. Winds had decreased to near 45 kts and the storm was beginning to lose tropical characteristics. By 15/0600 UTC Charley was passing about 35 nm east of Atlantic City, New Jersey, with peak winds of only minimal tropical storm intensity. Charley made a final landfall around 0900 UTC on Long Island near the town of Farmingville, and by 1200 UTC was located in the vicinity of Boston. The final TPC/NHC advisory on Charley was issued at 15/1500 UTC with the system located east of Cape Cod and still moving quickly northeastward. The extratropical remnant was forecast to lose its identity in a frontal zone, and apparently this happened, as OPC made its final reference to the post-Charley system at 16/0000 UTC. Hurricane Charley's recurvature at a fairly low latitude in the Gulf of Mexico was more typical of a late September or October hurricane. The rather unusual track was due to an unseasonably strong shortwave trough moving into the southeastern U. S. This same trough had recurved Tropical Storm Bonnie into the eastern Florida Panhandle the day before Charley savagely struck the Charlotte Harbor communities. Charley was the first of four destructive hurricanes to strike the state of Florida during the historic 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first of three to bring hurricane-force winds to many of the inland counties located on the Peninsula. Hurricane Charley was also the first major hurricane to strike the Charlotte Harbor since at least 1944. Following is a list of the stronger hurricanes to strike this area of Florida since 1871, and none appears to have been anywhere near as intense as Charley: (1) Oct, 1873 - A major hurricane made landfall in the Charlotte Harbor area, destroying Punta Rassa (this from ATLANTIC HURRICANES by Dunn and Miller). The reanalyzed Best Track file assigns a MSW of about 100 kts and a SLP of 959 mb at landfall. Records indicate that the surge reached a height of 4.3 metres. (2) Sep, 1894 - A Category 2 hurricane with winds of 90 kts made landfall in the Charlotte Harbor area. (3) Oct, 1910 - The famous "loop" hurricane made landfall a little to the south of Port Charlotte and to the north of Fort Myers. The reanalyzed Best Track file assigns a MSW of 105 kts at landfall. (4) Oct, 1944 - The final hurricane of 1944 made landfall between the Charlotte Harbor area and Tampa. Based on the old Best Track file (the ongoing reanalysis has not yet reached 1944) the MSW appears to have been about 105 kts. It is interesting to note that all the major hurricanes affecting this region occurred after the first of October except for Hurricane Charley, which illustrates the fact that Charley's track was most unusual for a mid-August hurricane. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ (1) Cuba -------- As Charley crossed Cuba hurricane-force winds extended about 13 nm to the right of the center and 10 nm to the left of the track--a very small hurricane indeed. As noted above, the strongest wind measured on the island during Charley's passage was a 1-min avg sustained wind of 103 kts at the Vaisala meteorological station located at the airport in Playa Baracoa, just west of Havana City, and just inside the eastern eyewall. The station measured peak gusts of 130 kts and a minimum SLP of 974 mb. Another Vaisala station at San Antonio de los Banos measured a maximum 1-min avg wind of 97 kts, gusting to 115 kts, before the sensors were blown away. The station in Guira de Melena, also in the eastern eyewall, reported a MSW of 92 kts, peak gusts of 116 kts, and a minimum SLP of 971.6 mb. The minimum SLP of 966 mb mentioned earlier was estimated, based on a consideration of the available data and the distance of the various stations from the center of the eye. Charley was a rather dry hurricane in Cuba--rainfall amounts of 100 to 150 mm were reported only in restricted areas near the path of the eye. Eyewitnesses (no pun intended) reported that the stars could be clearly seen during the passage of Charley's eye, and there were some reports of a reddish-like appearance of the sky within the eye. A storm surge of 3.7 m above MSL was observed in Playa Cajio, where 360 houses were simply swept away. The ocean spread up to 2.6 km inland at that point, and penetrated 1.5 km inland at Surgidero de Batabano, where the surge height was 2.8 m. (The information in this section comes from an excellent Preliminary Report on Hurricane Charley in Cuba prepared by Dr. Jose Rubiera, Dr. Maritza Ballester and Dr. Cecilia Gonzalez, National Forecasting Center, Instituto de Meteorologia, Cuba.) (2) Reconnaissance Aircraft --------------------------- A few comments from Rich Henning, a member of the U. S. Air Force's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron: "In the case of Charley, the MSLP hung around 970 mb all night (with a 700-mb core temperature of only 12-14 C), then it dropped 29 mb (with a 10-mb drop in about 90 minutes) as the 700-mb core temperature spiked up to 20 C and the eye contracted to 5 miles. The 13/1930 UTC fix included an astonishing description of 138-kt winds ONE MILE southeast of the eye center." Charley provided a fascinating case study of meso- scale core processes gone amok. As noted above, the lowest CP and peak FLW measured by reconnaissance aircraft was 941 mb and 148 kts, respectively, at 13/1956 UTC--shortly before Charley's eye made landfall in Florida. (3) Florida ----------- As noted above, one of the NHC advisories alluded to an unofficial gust (estimated) of 110 kts along with a 943.6 mb SLP measured at Punta Gorda. Storm chaser Mike Theiss was in the Charlotte Harbor area during the passage of the eye (which lasted only 5 minutes) and recorded a minimum pressure of 944 mb. Peak gusts of 90 kts and 95 kts were estimated at Arcadia and Wauchula, respectively, by Emergency Management personnel. The peak gust recorded by a NWS station was 97 kts at Punta Gorda at 13/2035 UTC. The following table contains reports of sustained winds (2-min avg) exceeding storm force (48 kts): County City Dir (deg) Spd (kts) Date/Time (UTC) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Osceola Kissimmee ??? 53 14 / 0035 Orange Orlando 160 67 14 / 0105 Orange Orlando 130 57 14 / 0129 Seminole Sanford 120 63 14 / 0210 Volusia Daytona Beach 200 48 14 / 0353 Volusia Ormond Beach 100 59 14 / 0315 The following table contains reports of peak gusts exceeding hurricane force (64 kts): County City Dir (deg) Spd (kts) Date/Time (UTC) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Osceola Kissimmee ??? 65 14 / 0035 Orange Orlando 160 91 14 / 0105 Orange Orlando 120 74 14 / 0129 Seminole Sanford 120 80 14 / 0210 Volusia Daytona Beach 200 72 14 / 0353 Volusia Ormond Beach 100 75 14 / 0315 Note: The above values represent the highest found. Many of the ASOS sites failed during the height of the hurricane. Two NASA wind towers near Cape Canaveral at 16.5 m above ground level reported sustained winds or 53 kts and 56 kts with both reporting peak gusts of 75 kts. The Wind Shear Alert System (33.5-45.7 m above ground level) at Daytona Beach International Airport reported a maximum gust of 84 kts. As Hurricane Charley passed through Florida rather quickly, rainfall amounts were not particularly impressive. The highest storm total amount was 141 mm at Sanford in Seminole County, recorded between 12/1200 and 14/1200 UTC. Kissimmee recorded 132 mm during the same 48-hour period. Apopka in Orange County recorded a 24-hour total of 102 mm between 13/0400 and 14/0400 UTC. Estimates place the magnitude of the peak storm surge at 4-5 metres. More meteorological observations can be found at the following links: D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ (1) Cuba -------- There was a lot of damage reported to housing, crops, trees, power and telephone lines and overall infrastructure in the western portion of Havana Province, in the west of Havana City and the eastern part of Pinar del Rio. However, only four fatalities were reported from this major Category 3 hurricane, the first of such an intensity to strike Havana Province since 1948. Very severe damage was sustained by agriculture. Hundreds of hectares of banana plantations were destroyed by the winds. Even edible root plantations, such as yucca, were heavily damaged. Citrus plantations were stripped of fruit, and tens of thousands of mango, guava and avocado trees were also blown down and the fruit lost. Reports indicate that some 40,500 homes were heavily damaged and 8300 houses totally destroyed. In addition to the four fatalities reported in Cuba, one death was attributed to the hurricane in Jamaica. (2) Florida ----------- Hurricane Charley was the second most destructive hurricane ever to strike the state of Florida, the most destructive being Category 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The most concentrated destruction was in the communities of Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte in the Charlotte Harbor area of southwest Florida. Total dollar estimates of insured losses range from around $7.5 to $11 billion, with total damages likely to exceed $15 billion. In the Charlotte Harbor area, approximately 10,000 homes were destroyed with another 16,000 severely damaged. Many of these were no doubt mobile homes, which are not designed to withstand the extreme winds encountered in intense tropical cyclones. On the day after the passage of Charley an estimated 1.3 million persons were without electrical power. One source estimated the number of persons initially without power at 2 million. An estimated 1.4 million people evacuated their homes prior to the approach of Hurricane Charley. Some 2300 stayed in local shelters. A close call came at Arcadia, about 20 miles inland, where one wall collapsed at a civic center which was being utilized as an evacuation shelter for some 1200 people. Very fortunately, only one person was injured as a result of the incident and her injuries were minor. Charley's winds played havoc with small aircraft at the Charlotte Airport with many planes ripped apart by the fierce winds. An observer reported seeing one small plane flying down the runway as if were about to take off. The U. S. Labor Department reported that new applications for unemployment insurance increased by a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 343,000 for the week ending 21 August. Half of this 10,000 rise was attributed to claims stemming from Hurricane Charley. Hurricane Charley was directly responsible for nine deaths in Florida with 16 more indirectly attributable to the storm. Most of the indirect deaths occurred post-storm and were due to things like electrocution, heart problems, carbon monoxide poisoning, automobile accidents, and heat strokes. One man died when he fell from a tree, and another died when a tree fell on him. Many post-storm injuries were reported due to things like stepping on nails, tripping over debris, chainsaw accidents, auto- mobile accidents at intersections where traffic lights were inoperative, bruises, cut and strains. Hurricane-related stress also caused an increase in heart attacks and respiratory problems, and many people became ill with diarrhea and vomiting after drinking contaminated tap water. (3) Carolinas and Northward --------------------------- The Property Claims Service reports that insured damages due to Charley were estimated at $25 million in North Carolina and $20 million in South Carolina. In the state of Rhode Island, one death was reported as a direct casualty of Hurricane Charley. (4) Additional Information -------------------------- More information on storm damage can be found in the reports prepared by the Tampa and Melbourne NWS offices referenced in Section C.3 above. In addition, many articles dealing with the impact of Hurricane Charley and subsequent storms may be found at the following URL: Following are some links supplied by John Wallace which contain additional information on the impact of Hurricane Charley: E. Storm Chaser Reports ----------------------- Following are short write-ups sent by storm chasers Mike Theiss and Jim Leonard, who were eyewitnesses to Charley's fury in the Charlotte Harbor area. (1) Mike Theiss --------------- "I documented Hurricane Charley at Charlotte Harbor and never imagined this storm would turn out to be like this. I had a window blown out from a piece of a flying roof, a large telephone pole with a big transformer landed behind my truck, and I had debris slamming against my car during the real intense eyewall which lasted for about 20 minutes. All I can say is "UNREAL". I had heard reports of this storm intensifying, but I had no idea it got as strong as it did. I recorded a pressure of 944 mb and was in "Awe" in the eye of this beast. The core was very small and tight and I was in the eye for around 5 minutes. The damage in the area I was in reminded me of Andrew's aftermath, but in a smaller area. I observed concrete structures blown apart, every building at least de-roofed, trees snapped in half, and large billboard signs with only the poles left twisted beyond belief. I drove a few miles down the road and the damage was bad, but nowhere near the devastation in Charlotte Harbor. I haven't seen any radar loops yet of it making landfall and can't wait. I will post pics in a few days. I have to focus on getting my truck in the shop to get repaired." More pictures and video clips may be found at Mike's website: (2) Jim Leonard --------------- "First of all, many thanks to Eric Blake for his frequent radar updates during the entire afternoon of the chase. We started the morning at a friend's house at Cape Coral, a suburb of Ft. Myers. By late morning I noticed the eye of the hurricane began to show a slight NNE heading, so the plan to head up to Sarasota was adjusted southward. As we headed over the bridge from Cape Coral to the city of Ft. Myers, I saw a long rainfree cloud base approaching from the south. I turned the van around and went back to the bridge to get in a better position. The cloud line moved over our position without doing anything when all of a sudden overhead and to the NE I noticed rapid scud motion which I figured would lead to a potential tornado. At that moment I saw a large spray ring on the bay about a half mile to the northeast. We could only see this for a few seconds as there were too many trees in the way. Then a heavy rain over us occurred and obscured the vortex. Once the rain let up the cloud base circulation moved NW. At that time I saw rapidly circulating scud tags for a couple minutes more before losing sight of it. "As the afternoon wore on we drove north and south between Ft. Myers and North Port like a yo-yo as the center of the hurricane wobbled NNE. An average-sized eyewall would have been much easier to place ourselves in its track. As this storm was so small in size you had to be really accurate to get in its path. Also, we had to find the safest structure and have the best tree scenes during the strongest winds. We ended up in the ground-level parking garage of a hospital between Port Charlotte and Charlotte Harbor. While searching for our spot the winds were averaging 40 to 50 kts in gusts when a sudden gust of 70 kts occurred. We had to take cover fast! A second gust probably 60 kts or so occurred as a tree branch blasted out my left rear window of the van--this while video was rolling, great audio! Minutes later we positioned ourselves in the parking garage as all hell broke loose! "The core of this hurricane was so small and its forward movement so rapid that the winds increased amazingly fast. We were probably in an area of better constructed buildings as just a few blocks either side of us damage to structures was much worse. During the first half winds in my estimation were in the 120 to 130 mph range. There were many sections of roofing material flying around and I filmed the roof of a bank as it came off in pieces across the parking lot from us. The wind speed dropped off dramatically as the northern portion of the eye moved across--this took about two or three minutes--when all of a sudden the winds shifted to the NNE, then eventually north with the rain really blinding at this time. I estimated the gusts at the height of this part as high as 135 to 140 mph. The strongest winds on the back side lasted about 15 to 20 minutes. It was like going through a 15-mile-wide tornado! About 30 minutes later we began a brief damage survey before we headed back home. I noticed how the intense damage was definitely in streaks, which is typical in rapidly deepening hurricanes. The eyewall was characterized by very turbulent gusts, which is a common occurrence when the eyewall convection is very intense. This would account for the streaks of intense damage. This was first noted in Hurricane Celia in August, 1970, in Corpus Christi, Texas, a storm with a similar central pressure and storm size at landfall." More information may be available on Jim's website: (Report written by Gary Padgett) HURRICANE DANIELLE (TC-04) 13 - 21 August -------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- A strong and well-organized tropical wave, possibly already at tropical depression intensity, left the African coast on 12 August and was first mentioned in NHC/TPC's Tropical Weather Outlook at 2230 UTC later that day. The wave was accompanied by a broad LOW, and moving in a westerly direction, was centred around 260 nm southeast of the Cape Verde Islands by early the next morning. The disturbance proceeded to develop quickly and was soon upgraded to Tropical Depression Four at 13/1500 UTC. The system was designated Tropical Storm Danielle at 14/0300 UTC while passing south of the Cape Verde Islands. Danielle's MSW may have reached 35 kts six hours earlier, but the forecaster chose to wait until satellite CI estimates from TAFB and SAB had both reached a consensus of 2.5. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Storm Danielle was heading westward through a low shear environment and warm SSTs southeast of a mid-level ridge. These conditions encouraged gradual strengthening during the 14th. Banding features became better defined over the southern semicircle before beginning to wrap around the centre at 2100 UTC on 14 August. The MSW had risen to 55 kts by this time, and a 14/2247 UTC SSM/I microwave pass detected a developing eye. Danielle intensified into the first Cape Verde hurricane of the year at 15/0300 UTC when the MSW reached 65 kts and CI estimates reached 4.0. Continued strengthening on the 15th brought the sustained winds up to 85 kts by 2100 UTC. Just prior to this, the wind field surrounding Hurricane Danielle was reduced after a 15/2016 UTC QuikScat pass had indicated a smaller wind radii than previously analyzed. After this amendment, hurricane-force winds extended 20 nm from the centre while gales reached out as far as 90 nm in the southeastern quadrant. Danielle's track gradually curved towards the northwest on the 16th as a large area of troughing began to develop over the western Atlantic. The hurricane was looking healthy on infrared satellite images with a circular CDO punctured by a small eye, and good outflow was present in all quadrants. Danielle arrived at its peak strength of 90 kts at 16/0300 UTC, and this intensity held constant for the rest of the day. A single enhanced BD curve infrared image at 16/1800 UTC suggested a stronger system with CI estimates of 5.5., so for a short time Danielle's MSW could possibly have reached 100 kts. (It will be interesting to see if the winds are upped any during post-storm analysis.) By 16/2100 UTC Hurricane Danielle had turned north-northwestwards with its CDO less symmetrical than earlier in the day, a sign that the environment was becoming more hostile. The 10-nm eye persisted through the night, but this feature had faded somewhat by 17/0300 UTC. However, it continued to make intermittent appearances throughout the day. Veering northwards, Danielle remained a 90-kt hurricane until 17/2100 UTC when the MSW started to drop off. The intensity dropped a little further at 0300 UTC on 18 August as Hurricane Danielle tracked northward. The partially-exposed LLCC had become difficult to locate by this time as a result of southwesterly shear and dry air intrusion, but both microwave imagery and a 17/2100 UTC QuikScat pass indicated that the centre was located southwest of the deep convection. The cyclone began to weaken more rapidly and was barely at hurricane strength at 18/0900 UTC. It was downgraded to a 55-kt tropical storm six hours later as it turned towards the north- northeast and began to decelerate. At 18/2100 UTC the centre of Danielle passed near a drifting buoy which measured a CP of 1008.6 mb. Despite the shear Danielle continued to generate bursts of convection on the 19th, mainly to the northeast of the LLCC. The storm was about to perform a rather jagged hairpin turn over the next few days within a low to mid-level ridge, south of a passing short- wave trough, and east of a strong mid to upper-level LOW near 33N/45W. The hurricane was being steered in the flow between the mid to upper- level LOW and the subtropical ridge. Danielle headed northeastward, then eastward and finally wound up stationary at 19/2100 UTC. For the next day or two Danielle was expected to meander in the same general area. This was a completely different scenario to what some of the forecast models had been initially forecasting. Danielle was originally predicted to undergo extratropical transition and pass through the Azores island chain. Instead, a HIGH built in the vicinity of the Azores and blocked the cyclone's path in that direction. In defiance of hostile upper-level shear and high surface pressures, sporadic bursts of deep convection continued to fire up northeast of the well-defined centre. Danielle was maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm for the majority of the 20th. It was downgraded to a tropical depression at 2100 UTC when most or all of the convective activity had subsided and only the LLCC remained. Movement continued to be very slow and erratic but eventually a northwesterly crawl became established late on the 20th. This heading persisted into the 21st before Danielle assumed a more westerly track. The system was dropped by NHC at 21/1500 UTC when the final advisory was issued. The depression was then located a little over 740 nm west-southwest of Azores. The remnant circulation crept slowly westwards until the 22nd when movement became virtually static. As the ex-hurricane started to drift slowly north on the 23rd, convection redeveloped near to and east of the center, and the 23/1502 UTC STWO mentioned the possibility that Danielle could regenerate back into a tropical depression. However, deep convection soon diminished and conditions started to become more unfavourable for redevelopment. The LOW continued north to northwest at a quicker pace on the 24th. Finally, whatever was left of Danielle was gradually incorporated into the warm sector of a mid-latitude LOW on the 25th. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No damage or casualties are known as a result of Hurricane Danielle. (Report written by Kevin Boyle) TROPICAL STORM EARL (TC-05) 13 - 16 August --------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- The tropical wave that became Tropical Storm Earl exited the coast of Africa around 6 August. It was at first a rather dull, uninteresting feature as it tracked its way westwards across the tropical Atlantic. The wave was initially mentioned in NHC/TPC's STWO at 1130 UTC on 12 August when it was centred about 1100 nm east of the Windward Islands. A slow development potential was noted in this statement. The disturbance gradually became a little better organized through the 12th and 13th. As environmental conditions appeared to be favourable for cyclogenesis, the 13/1630 UTC STWO warned that a tropical depression could form within a day or two and that interests in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the system over the next few days. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Depression Five formed at 2100 UTC on the 13th roughly 910 nm or so east-southeast of the Windward Islands in an area historically hostile for tropical cyclone development. However, it was this same general area that had spawned Hurricane Charley only a few days before. TD-05 was moving rather quickly westwards--perhaps too fast for its own good--through a favourable environment, so further strengthening seemed likely. However, it took another 24 hours for the depression to reach tropical storm status. TD-05 was named Earl at 14/2100 UTC, by which time its rapid forward speed of around 20 kts had taken it to within nearly 350 nm southeast of Barbados. In response to the upgrade, the governments of the Windward Islands each issued a tropical storm warning. Tropical Storm Earl's motion was controlled by the steering flow provided by a strong mid-level ridge to its north, and this feature was forecast to persist and continue driving the tropical cyclone smartly westwards for the rest of its short Caribbean cruise. Some models gave the U. S. a fright by suggesting that in the long- term Earl could recurve northwards as a Category 2 hurricane towards the Gulf Coast or even Florida. Thankfully, this scenario failed to materialize, especially so soon after Charley's devastating landfall in Florida. Even though the overall cloud pattern appeared slightly elongated on the morning of the 15th, deep convection increased significantly near the centre and there was a little strengthening. Satellite intensity estimates had reached T3.0, but because banding features were barely discernible, the MSW was increased to only 40 kts, which turned out to be the maximum intensity of Earl. While Earl's satellite representation at 15/1500 UTC showed an organized system with impressive outflow channels, the Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl struggled to find a well-defined closed LLCC. Meanwhile, the system was bombing through the Windward Islands and passed just south of Grenada at around 15/1800 UTC before entering the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Earl deteriorated dramatically overnight, and by the next morning convection had weakened markedly and the impressive outflow pattern that the system possessed earlier had been replaced by a uniform easterly flow. In fact, QuikScat data revealed that Earl had degenerated to the extent that it resembled an open wave. The government of Venezuela refused to allow aircraft into their airspace for reconnaissance purposes so NHC decided to continue advisories for a little while longer, especially as Earl was in close proximity to land. Microwave and QuikScat imagery indicated that the poorly-defined centre or wave axis was racing ahead of the convection. The MSW was kept at 40 kts despite T-numbers having dropped to 2.0 (30 kts), and this was due to a burst of deep convection near the alleged centre. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reached the storm the next morning and was unable to find any sign of a closed circulation associated with Earl. A Quik- Scat pass also failed to locate the LLCC. On this basis, NHC downgraded Earl to an open wave with 35-kt winds and issued the final advisory at 16/1500 UTC. The wave continued to generate winds of tropical storm force as it passed south of Jamaica. Models continued to indicate the possibility that the remnant of Earl could re-instate itself as a tropical cyclone and reach hurricane strength as it tracked westward through the Caribbean. However, a planned follow-up reconnaissance flight to investigate the tropical wave on the 17th was cancelled since the system failed to show any signs of re-organization. Continuing its journey westwards, the remnants of Earl moved inland over Honduras/ northern Nicaragua later that same day, ultimately re-emerging over Eastern Pacific waters around 18 or 19 August and redeveloping as Hurricane Frank. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ According to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency, damages on Grenada were minor and amounted to no more than broken branches, a few fallen trees, and downed power lines. Ten houses had their roofs blown off while one home suffered partial roof damage. There were reports of flooding in the St. George parish area of Grenada, and the Point Saline International airport was closed for a short time. There were no reports of injuries or casualties. Also, there were no reports of casualties or damages from any of the other Windward Islands due to Tropical Storm Earl. (Report written by Kevin Boyle) HURRICANE FRANCES (TC-06) 25 August - 10 September -------------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- A vigorous tropical wave moved off the African coast early on the 21st of August. Conditions downstream were considered favorable for tropical cyclone development, but the wave initially showed no signs of cyclogenesis. By the next afternoon the wave was passing south of the Cape Verde Islands and convection had become slightly better organized. The wave continued marching westward on the 23rd with little change, but by early morning of 24 August was again exhibiting increased convective organization. The disturbance was then located approximately 500 nm west-southwest of the Cape Verdes, moving westward at 13 kts. The convective appearance continued to improve into the evening hours, and at 0300 UTC on 25 August the first advisory on Tropical Depression 06 was issued by TPC/NHC. B. Synoptic History ------------------- The initial advisory placed the center of TD-06 about 750 nm west- southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west-northwestward at 15 kts. The MSW was estimated at 25 kts and the system was forecast to reach tropical storm intensity within 12 hours. During the morning of the 25th convection associated with the depression looked somewhat ragged, but during the afternoon the system showed renewed organization with a small CDO and a convective band wrapped around the western semicircle. Since satellite intensity estimates were 35 kts from TAFB and SAB, TD-06 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Frances at 25/2100 UTC. The new tropical storm was located about 1250 nm east of the Lesser Antilles and moving westward at 17 kts. During the early morning hours of 26 August Frances' cloud pattern improved significantly. Winds were upped to 50 kts in the 26/0900 UTC advisory, and there were some indications that a banding-type eye was trying to form. The intensification trend continued and at 2100 UTC Frances was upgraded to hurricane status with 70-kt winds. Upper- level outflow was good to excellent in all quadrants. Hurricane Frances continued to steadily strengthen on the 27th, and at 2100 UTC the MSW was upped to 100 kts, thereby making Frances the third intense hurricane (Category 3+ on the Saffir/Simpson Scale) of the season. The hurricane was then centered about 700 nm east of the Lee- ward Islands. Up to this point Frances had been moving on a west- northwesterly track, being guided by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. For a couple of days a weakening of the ridge due to a higher- latitude shortwave trough had been forecast, and this verified very well. On 27 August Hurricane Frances began a northwestward jog in response to the temporary weakening of the ridge. And, just as had earlier been forecast, in a couple of days the cyclone returned to a west-northwestward heading as the trough lifted out and the ridge strengthened over the western Atlantic. The intensity remained more or less constant late on the 27th and early on the 28th due to the first of several eyewall replacement cycles. After completing this cycle, Frances' intensity began to climb again, reaching an initial peak of 115 kts at 28/2100 UTC, based on an analysis of satellite intensity estimates, both manual and objective. Frances was located about 600 nm east of the northern Leeward Islands as it became the season's second Category 4 hurricane. As forecast, the subtropical ridge began to build and expand north of the hurricane. Consequently, on the 29th Frances began to move back to a heading of just slightly north of due west. The first U. S. Air Force Reserves reconnaissance aircraft reached Frances during the afternoon of 29 August. A minimum pressure of 949 mb was measured, and the peak FLW found was 112 kts. Since the plane had not sampled the entire circulation by the 2100 UTC advisory time, the MSW was left at 115 kts, but this was reduced to 110 kts at 30/0300 UTC. The pressure was up to 954 mb at 2300 UTC and the highest 700-mb FLW reported was 118 kts at a position about 9 nm northwest of the center. At 0900 UTC the MSW was reduced further to 105 kts. The most recent peak FLW found by an aircraft was only 99 kts, but the cyclone appeared much better organized and satellite intensity estimates were ranging from 102 to 115 kts. Frances was located at 30/0900 UTC about 335 nm east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west at around 8 kts. Frances' intensity began to edge upward again on 31 August as the pressure began to fall once more. The MSW was upped to 110 kts at 31/0000 UTC and to 115 kts at 1200 UTC. The hurricane had completed an eyewall replacement cycle early in the morning, and the 1200 UTC reconnaissance mission reported a peak FLW of 138 kts at 700 mb and an extrapolated CP of 944 mb. Six hours later the MSW was nudged up again to 120 kts. A reconnaissance plane had found winds to 144 kts at 700 mb with an extrapolated CP of 938 mb. Also, the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) on the NOAA P-3 plane measured surface winds of 118 kts, and T-numbers had reached 6.5 from the satellite agencies. Thus, Frances was a solid Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Scale located about 125 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west at 15 kts. Hurricane force winds extended outward 60 nm from the center in the northwest quadrant and from 35 to 50 nm in the other quadrants while gales covered a zone almost 300 nm in diameter. Large, severe Hurricane Frances maintained its intensity through the first day of September. The lowest CP in the storm's history--935 mb-- was measured during the wee hours by a reconnaissance aircraft. The storm was getting set to go through another eyewall replacement cycle. A reconnaissance crew very early on the 1st reported finding three concentric wind maxima, and the reconnaissance fix at 01/1719 UTC reported a double eyewall. The discussion bulletin at 01/2100 UTC noted that data from the SFMR on the NOAA P-3 plane were used to decrease the wind radii estimates in the northwestern quadrant. As a result of this, it was decided to delay the issuance of a hurricane watch for the Florida East Coast. Very early on 2 September a dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall reported surface winds near 125 kts. This, along with CI esti- mates of 127 kts from all three satellite agencies, was the basis for raising Frances' MSW to the peak value of 125 kts at 02/0900 UTC. The attendant CP was measured at 936 mb. The storm's center had passed only 25 nm north of Grand Turk Island around 2100 UTC on 1 September, and at 0900 UTC on the 2nd was centered a like distance north of Mayaguana Island in the Bahamas. This position is also 450 nm east-southeast of Palm Beach, Florida. At 1500 UTC on 2 September hurricane warnings were ordered up from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. Hurricane Frances was located very near San Salvador Island in the Bahamas around 1800 UTC, still at its peak intensity of 125 kts. A sustained wind of 99 kts was reported from the island. By 2100 UTC data from a reconnaissance plane indicated that Frances' CP had risen to 948 mb, so the wind was adjusted downward slightly to 120 kts. It was initially thought that this might represent a minor fluctuation in intensity, but Frances continued to slowly weaken as it progressed west- northwestward through the Bahamas. The MSW was lowered to 110 kts in the 09/0300 UTC advisory, placing Frances back at Category 3 status. At 0600 UTC the hurricane was centered near the northern end of Cat Island, moving slowly west-northwestward at 8 kts. The MSW at this time was again decreased slightly to 105 kts. Six hours later Frances was located over Eleuthera Island or about 225 nm east-southeast of the southeastern coast of Florida. Frances was continuing to slowly weaken. While cold convective tops were still being generated over the center, Hurricane Hunter and Bahamian radar data showed that they were coming from eyewall fragments in the northeastern quadrant. At 0900 UTC the CP had risen to 954 mb and the peak FLW was 98 kts. Reconnaissance data during the later morning indicated that the inner core of Frances had deteriorated since the previous day, likely due to some upper-level southwesterly shear between 300-250 mb which was undercutting the impressive outflow layer. Shortly before 03/1500 UTC, Little Harbor in the Abacos group reported a wind gust of 100 kts. At 1800 UTC Frances was centered very near the southern tip of Great Abaco Island. Winds were down to 100 kts and the CP at 961 mb as the large hurricane continued to slowly weaken. The MSW was decreased to 90 kts in the 04/0000 UTC intermediate advisory. This downgrade to Category 2 status was based upon data from a variety of sources: radar, satellite, reconnaissance data, and surface reports. As the day progressed the inner core convection became a little more symmetric and reconnaissance observations indicated that an eyewall might be reforming, but Frances was to remain at 90 kts until its landfall on the Florida coast. At 1200 UTC the hurricane was centered very near Freeport on Grand Bahama Island. Settlement Point was reporting sustained winds to hurricane force at that hour with gusts to 70 kts. The SLP was 974.5 mb and falling rapidly. Strong winds continued to buffet the island for much of the day as Frances remained stalled. By 1500 UTC WSR-88D radar showed that Frances had developed a large eye about 70 nm in diameter. During the evening hours of 4 September the large hurricane began once more to drift west-northwestward toward the southeastern coast of Florida. The center was located at that hour approximately 45 nm east-northeast of Palm Beach with strong winds already affecting the coastline. The center of Hurricane Frances' large eye reached the coast around 0500 UTC on Sunday, 5 September, near Sewall's Point, Florida. This location is also in the vicinity of Stuart, Jensen Beach and Port Salerno. The landfall intensity was 90 kts with the CP near 960 mb. Hurricane force winds extended outward from the center 75 nm in the northern semicircle and about 60 nm to the south. Once inland Frances continued to move west-northwestward across the central Florida Peninsula while slowly weakening. At 05/1500 UTC Frances' center was located by radar approximately 130 km east-southeast of Tampa; however, due to the large size of the circulation, Grand Bahama Island was still reporting sustained winds of tropical storm force while winds of 40-45 kts in feeder bands were being reported from the Keys. At 2100 UTC Frances was downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm, even though the CP was quite low at 975 mb. As the large storm continued to weaken over central Florida, it maintained well-organized convective banding and tropical storm-force winds over a large area. The St. Augustine C-MAN reported a sustained 56-kt wind observation at 05/2200 UTC, and around the same time Tampa reported a MSLP of 977.7 mb. By 0300 UTC on 6 September the center of Tropical Storm Frances was moving out over the warm waters of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico just northwest of Tampa with the MSW estimated at 55 kts. The NHC discussion bulletin at 0900 UTC noted that thunderstorm activity had steadily increased near the center over the past few hours, and Doppler radar data from Tampa and Tallahassee, as well as observations from a reconnaissance mission, indicated that a ragged eye was trying to form. The forecast for that hour indicated the possibility that Frances might regain hurricane intensity before making landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle. That forecast, however, failed to materialize. The MSW remained at 55 kts until Frances made landfall near St. Marks, Florida, around 1800 UTC on the 6th (Labor Day). The final TPC/NHC advisory on Frances, issued at 07/0300 UTC, downgraded the system to tropical depres- sion status with the center located about 50 km southwest of Albany, Georgia. The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 kts and was expected to make a northward turn during the next 24 hours. With Frances' winds winding down, the primary concern turned to inland flooding from the expected heavy rainfall. As has been the procedure for the past several years, warning responsibility for the remnants of Frances was handed over to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) in Maryland. Tropical Depression Frances continued northwestward through southwestern Georgia into extreme eastern Alabama before recurving to a general northeastward heading. At 0300 UTC on 8 September the depression was located about 55 km northeast of Atlanta, Georgia. The system continued northward to northeastward, passing through extreme western North Carolina, the northeastern tip of Tennessee, extreme western Virginia and into West Virginia. At 09/0300 UTC the remnant LOW was located over West Virginia about 280 km west of Washington, D. C., and had accelerated some to 17 kts. The heading subsequently became more northeasterly and 24 hours later, when HPC issued their final advisory, the LOW had crossed western Pennsylvania and New York and had moved into Canada, being located about 40 km south-southwest of Quebec City. Frances' remnant LOW was then moving northeastward at 21 kts. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) issued a couple of gale warnings on the LOW, even though the center was inland, as it moved into northern Maine. The final definite mention of the system was at 10/1200 UTC. Frances' remnant was the southwesternmost center of a complex LOW with the main center near 48N/65W, moving to the east-northeast at 40 kts. The post-Frances center was moving in the same direction at 30 kts. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Many locations reported gusts well above hurricane intensity, and several reported sustained winds at or higher than hurricane force. The highest sustained wind/gust combination I could locate was at Ft. Pierce, which reported a 1-min avg wind of 70 kts with a peak gust of 94 kts around 0400 UTC on 5 September. Port Mayaca Lock in Martin County reported a peak sustained wind of 74 kts at 05/0500 UTC. There was a report from the public of a gust to 92 kts at 05/1145 UTC from a location in Martin County (27.12N/80.26W)--the anemometer height was 8.5 meters. Port Orange reported a 3-day rainfall total of 383 mm, while Deland Coop. in Volusia County reported a storm total of 286 mm. The Corp of Engineers reported a storm surge value at the St. Lucie Lock of 1.8 meters. Other surge estimates ranged from 1.8 meters at Cocoa Beach to 2.4 meters at Vero Beach. Many, many more observations can be found in the storm report compiled by the Melbourne NWS office. The link is: As of this writing, the official TPC/NHC storm report on Hurricane Frances is not yet available online, but it is highly likely that it will be within the next few weeks. The report will contain additional observations, and interested persons should periodically check the following link: Hurricane Frances produced heavy rainfalls from Florida to Canada. A significant area in central Florida plus western North Carolina recorded storm totals exceeding 15 inches (380 mm), while portions of Virginia and eastern Georgia measured totals exceeding 10 inches (255 mm). A small zone in southeastern New York experienced a storm total in excess of 7 inches (178 mm). The following link contains a map depicting storm total rainfall associated with Frances over the eastern U. S.: Following are a few selected storm totals gleaned from the HPC advisories on Frances. These represent periods of various length ranging usually from 30 to 42 hours. Linville Falls, North Carolina 459 mm Edgemont, North Carolina 422 mm Lake Toxaway, North Carolina 367 mm West Point, Ohio 338 mm Tallulah Falls, Georgia 255 mm Walhalla, South Carolina 253 mm Lake City, Florida 236 mm Ellamoore, West Virginia 229 mm Nicholls Knobb, Virginia 209 mm Busted Rock, Virginia 187 mm White Plains, New York 163 mm Hartwell Dam, Georgia 157 mm Altoona, Pennsylvania 148 mm Middlesboro, Kentucky 129 mm Newfound Gap, Tennessee 103 mm Amounts exceeding 50 mm were reported from many stations across New England. More rainfall information can be found in the HPC advisories, which are archived at the following link: Frances brought significant rainfall to parts of Canada also. Heavy rains were recorded just north of eastern Lake Erie and over south- eastern Ontario. A few spots measured new record 24-hr totals: Cobourg 82.2 mm Kingston 137.0 mm Ottawa (Airport) 123.0 mm Trenton 111.8 mm Frances' remnants brought heavy rain also to the Maritime Provinces. Charlo, New Brunswick, recorded 98.3 mm in association with the storm, and Miscou Island and Miramichi, New Brunswick, each received over 50 mm. In Newfoundland, Deer Lake and Stephenville each set a new record for the date (10 September) with 71.9 mm and 65.2 mm, respectively. Twillingate measured 62.3 mm, while Badger and Corner Brook each recorded over 50 mm. (A special thanks to Chris Fogarty for the Canadian data.) D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Frances was not nearly as intense as the devastating Charley, but was much larger. Charley's swath of hurricane-force winds was only 40 nm, whereas sustained hurricane winds in Frances stretched over a diameter of 135 nm. In areas where there are many trees in very close proximity to houses, sustained winds of storm force (>48 kts) with accompanying gusts to hurricane force can cause an amazing amount of destruction by trees being blown onto houses and cars. The diameter of storm-force winds in association with Hurricane Charley was about 90 nm, whereas in Frances winds 50 kts or higher covered a zone 220 nm across. Hence, Hurricane Frances did not produce the extreme structural damage caused by Charley over a small area, but did produce significant damage over a considerable portion of the entire Florida Peninsula. Beach erosion was moderate to severe from Cocoa Beach to Vero Beach with roads and boardwalks experiencing significant damage. Street flooding was a problem in many cities, and a few tornadoes touched down, causing minor damage. St. Lucie County was one of the hardest hit counties with initial reports indicating damage of $2.5 billion to public and private facilities. The Ft. Pierce Municipal Marina was destroyed as were most of the hangars at Ft. Pierce Airport. Thousands of residences experiences roof and tree damage, and many thousands of mobile homes were damaged or destroyed. Hurricane Frances caused more damage to the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral than any storm in history, according to a Fox News story. The storm blew an estimated 1000 exterior panels from a giant building where spaceships are assembled, creating about 40,000 square feet of "open window" on two sides of the building. Sustained winds reached 60 kts at the facility with gusts to 82 kts. The shuttle hangars and spaceships were not damaged, but part of the roof came off the building where the shuttles' thermal tiles are made, resulting in a potential blow to NASA's return-to-flight effort. The storm summary on Frances in the latest release by Dr. Bill Gray and associates at Colorado State University indicates that insured losses from Frances are estimated at around $4 billion, which would suggest a total damage figure for the storm of around $8 billion. The hurricane has also been blamed for 24 deaths. All of the CSU forecast releases may be found at the following URL: The post-storm report prepared by the Melbourne NWS office, referenced in the above section, also contains further details regarding storm damage in the counties within its area of jurisdiction. Also, the official TPC/NHC report, when it becomes available, should be consulted as the best available source of damage figures relating to Hurricane Frances. (Report written by Gary Padgett) HURRICANE GASTON (TC-07) 27 August - 2 September ------------------------------------------- Editor's Note: The report below, authored by Kevin Boyle, was written before the post-analysis upgrade of Tropical Storm Gaston to hurricane status. However, it does point out the definite possibility of such happening. A. Storm Origins ---------------- At 1818 UTC 27 August NHC issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement on a LOW centred about 120 nm southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. This feature had formed from the remnants of an old frontal system which extended from the United States East Coast and out into the Atlantic. This front also instigated the development of Tropical Storm Hermine on 29 August. The disturbance that became Gaston was first mentioned in NHC's Tropical Weather Outlooks on 26 August, but it wasn't until the next day that significant development began. The system then proceeded to organize quite quickly, resulting in the Special Bulletin at 27/1818 UTC. This statement announced that advisories would be started at 2100 UTC and a tropical storm watch would be put into place for portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. At the time of the first warning, Tropical Depression Seven was still loitering nearly 130 nm southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Steering currents controlling the system were very weak and continued to be so during the 28th. However, a ridge developing to the north and east began to nudge the tropical cyclone westwards during the course of the day. In the days ahead, this heading was predicted to turn northwards as the ridge was weakened by a shortwave trough. Tropical Depression Seven continued to quickly wind up and tropical storm intensity was soon reached at 1500 UTC 28 August. Visible satellite imagery showed a curved convective band wrapping halfway around the centre at this time. The watch issued for South Carolina was changed to a warning in response to the upgrade. B. Synoptic History ------------------- An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was sent to investigate the tropical cyclone and discovered that Gaston was a stronger storm than previously thought. The plane found 59-kt 450-m flight-level winds to the north of the centre and a CP of 996 mb. The MSW was raised to 45 kts at 28/2100 UTC on the basis of these measurements. In the event Gaston strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane before landfall, which seemed likely, a hurricane watch was issued for the South Carolina coast, and this was then raised to a warning at 28/2345 UTC. Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Tropical Storm Gaston at 29/0300 UTC found 60-kt flight-level winds to the southwest of the centre, a CP of 994 mb, and reported winds of 35-kts extending about 50 nm or less in all quadrants. In addition, the plane reported a 35-nm diameter eye with a partial eyewall, and this observation was backed up by radar from both Charleston and Wilmington which showed that the eye was open to the south. At 29/1000 UTC Gaston was edging closer to land and was about 35 nm east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, at this time. Its associated MSW had risen to 60 kts and it seemed only a matter of time before Gaston would attain hurricane intensity. The storm had made its predicted turn towards the north in response to an advancing shortwave trough embedded in the westerlies. Gaston made landfall just west of McClellanville, South Carolina, around 29/1400 UTC. WSR-88D velocity data indicated that the storm came ashore at just below hurricane strength. There is every possibility that Gaston did move onshore as a minimal hurricane and a post- analysis of the system may upgrade it to a Category One hurricane later. Tracking northwards, Gaston weakened to a 35-kt tropical storm at 29/2100 UTC, and after downgrading it to a tropical depression at 30/0300 UTC, NHC stopped issuing advisories at this point and passed warning responsibility to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Initially, the remnants of Gaston were forecast to absorb Tropical Storm Hermine, but this scenario never materialized. Instead, Hermine sped northward toward New England, leaving behind the slower moving Gaston. By 30/0300 UTC Tropical Depression Gaston had reached the South Carolina/North Carolina border. Turning northeastwards, Gaston moved back over water and was located east of the Delmarva Peninsula and southeast of the Chesapeake Bay at 0300 UTC 31 August. At this time NHC re-assumed warning responsibility and upgraded Gaston back to tropical storm status based on observations of 43 kts (10-min avg) from the Chesapeake Light C-man Station (with gusts of 49 kts) and also a ship report of 36-kt sustained winds at 31/0000 UTC about 35 nm southeast of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These wind reports were from the south and southeastern parts of the circulation with no tropical storm-force winds being recorded over land. Accelerating northeastwards, satellite imagery showed limited deep convection in association with Gaston, and there appeared to be a frontal-like band developing to the southeast of the centre. The MSW had remained at 35 kts and overall, Tropical Storm Gaston was becoming less tropical as it began to interact with a frontal zone. However, the storm maintained enough deep convection around its centre to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Despite Gaston's passage over 16 Deg C SSTs, the tropical cyclone appeared to be holding its own for awhile, and satellite intensity estimates at 01/0300 UTC had even risen slightly, although buoy reports near the centre indicated that the MSW might have fallen. However Gaston was kept at tropical storm intensity as a compromise between CI estimates and surface observations. By dawn satellite imagery indicated that Gaston had become mostly extratropical, and a jet stream was creating a sharp boundary to the north of the cloud shield. NHC upped the MSW to 45 kts on their final advisory at 01/0900 UTC to comply with satellite estimates and a 45-kt wind speed measurement from Buoy WRYG. The extratropical system then sped east-northeastwards at around 30 kts out into the Atlantic and passed just southeast of Newfoundland on the 2nd of September. Bracknell weather charts indicate that Gaston's remnant LOW (995 mb) continued northeast across the north Atlantic on the 3rd of September, losing its identity northwest of the British Isles the next day. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Tropical Storm Gaston produced some impressive rainfall totals in North and South Carolina. The following were obtained from the HPC storm summaries. In South Carolina, Kingstree had a 24-hour total of 250 mm, while Turbeville reported 178 mm in 24-hours, both ending at 0000 UTC 30 August. Other 24-hour totals above 100 mm were Manning (140 mm) and Charleston (103 mm) during the period 0000 UTC 29 August-0000 UTC 30 August. Darlington measured a 30-hour total of 133 mm ending at 0600 UTC 30 August. The only other rainfall amount exceeding 100 mm was from Florence, which recorded 119 mm in the 30 hours ending at 0600 UTC 30 August. In North Carolina, Lauringburg-Maxton Airport received 125 mm in the 30 hours ending 0600 UTC 30 August while Lumberton recorded 80 mm during the same period. Camp Mackall measured a storm total of 142 mm and Pope AFB reported a storm total of 86 mm. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ News sources indicate that Gaston unleashed torrential rains across North and South Carolina. Also, central parts of Virginia received a foot or more of rainfall which led to serious flooding. Five people were confirmed dead in Richmond, Virginia, as a result of Gaston and damages there were estimated at $20 million. The overall death toll is believed to be nine. (Report written by Kevin Boyle) TROPICAL STORM HERMINE (TC-08) 27 - 31 August -------------------------------------- At 2100 UTC on 29 August satellite images indicated that an area of low pressure located roughly 280 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, had developed sufficiently to be classified as a tropical storm. Advisories were initiated on Tropical Storm Hermine at this time and the initial MSW was set at 35 kts. Hermine developed from a disturbance embedded in the same frontal zone that had spawned its twin, Tropical Storm Gaston. At the time of its inception, the centre of Hermine's circulation was located to the north of the associated deep convection due to the effects of some vertical shear. However, some additional strengthening was expected. Basically, Hermine was being controlled by the same HIGH that had gradually pushed Tropical Storm Gaston into South Carolina, and the system was forecast to follow suit except that the forecast track kept the storm away from the U.S. East Coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings were deemed necessary. Another reason for this decision was that Hermine was forecast initially to be swallowed up by the larger extratropical circulation of Gaston. The MSW of Hermine was nudged up a little to 40 kts at 0300 UTC on 30 August, but the LLCC was still exposed to the north of the deep convection. The tropical cyclone had turned towards the north- northwest at this time, and six hours later, it began to race northwards at 16 kts. Based on satellite intensity estimates, the intensity was upped to 45 kts and was kept at this intensity through 30/1500 UTC based on a 30/0947 UTC QuikScat pass which showed 45 to 50-kt winds southeast of the LLCC. Because Hermine didn't appear to be weakening in satellite images, precautionary tropical storm warnings were issued at 30/1700 UTC for southeastern Massachusetts. The peak intensity of 45 kts was main- tained for the 30/2100 UTC advisory. Tropical Storm Hermine was now expected to remain a separate entity, and its rapid northerly motion caused it to overtake the slower-moving Gaston. Hermine was basically a low-level cloud swirl devoid of deep convection at 0300 UTC on 31 August with its MSW lowered to 35 kts, but it was maintained as a tropical storm for this advisory even though Buoy 44004 reported sustained winds of only 30 kts and sea heights of 4.6 metres. This was to allow for a 35-kt wind maximum which could have possibly existed close to the tropical cyclone's centre. Satellite intensity estimates also supported 35-kt winds. Hermine then came ashore near New Bedford, Massachusetts, around 31/0600 UTC. Maximum observed surface winds were no more than 20 to 25 kts, and as the system had no significant deep convection to speak of, Hermine was considered extra- tropical and the last advisory issued on the system at 31/0900 UTC. Hermine brought some heavy rain and wind gusts to near and slightly in excess of tropical storm force early on the 31st, but no sustained winds of tropical storm intensity were recorded in the landfall area. Maximum rainfall amounts attributable to Tropical Storm Hermine were mostly less than 13 mm, but rainbands from Gaston were close behind, making it difficult to make an exact determination of rainfall totals between these two systems. Highest tides reached 0.3 metre above the predicted elevations as the storm passed by. There were no reports of damage or casualties as a result of Tropical Storm Hermine. (Report written by Kevin Boyle) ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for August: 1 tropical depression 3 tropical storms ** 1 hurricane ** - one of these storms (Howard) became a hurricane and intense hurricane in early September Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for August ---------------------------------------------- Tropical cyclone activity was near normal in the Eastern North Pacific during August. August averages for the period 1971-2003 are about 4 NS, 2 H, and one IH. August, 2004, produced four NS but only one hurricane; however, the final storm, Howard, became a Category 4 hurricane during the early days of September. Estelle formed rather far west from the same tropical wave which had earlier spawned Atlantic Hurricane Charley and moved into the Central North Pacific. The other three storms formed much nearer the Mexican coast but moved generally northwestward away from the mainland with only minimal effects felt along the coastline. A special thanks to John Wallace for writing the reports on Georgette and Howard, and to Kevin Boyle for writing the report on Frank/TD-09E. NOTE: The official TPC/NHC storm reports for most of the Northeast Pacific basin tropical cyclones are now available online at the following link: TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE (TC-07E) 19 - 26 August ------------------------------------------ A. Storm Origins ---------------- According to TPC/NHC's Eastern North Pacific monthly summary for August, the precursor of Tropical Storm Estelle was the same African wave which had spawned Caribbean Hurricane Charley. The wave was first mentioned in the Pacific in a STWO issued at 1700 UTC on 12 August. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low-pressure area had become a little better organized about 650 nm south of Cabo San Lucas. However, upper-level winds were only marginally favorable for further development. The system was then moving west-northwestward at about 13 kts. The system was dropped from the outlooks after 1100 UTC on the 14th as it had become less organized about 700 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas. At 0500 UTC on 18 August the system was located in the far western part of the Eastern North Pacific region about 1225 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas. It was moving westward at 13 kts and conditions appeared somewhat conducive to further intensification. As the 18th wore on the disturbance gradually exhibited increased organization, and at 0900 UTC on 19 August, the first NHC advisory on Tropical Depression 07E was issued. TD-07E was then located over 1400 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. B. Synoptic History ------------------- The depression was rather slow to intensify. Deep convection decreased both in coverage and organization during the afternoon of the 19th, and Dvorak classifications were still at T2.0 or lower. Deep convection began to make a comeback during the evening, and the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Estelle at 0900 UTC on 20 August when located about 1600 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Dvorak estimates had reached 35 kts from all three satellite agencies, and a recent Quik- Scat pass had shown some 35-40 kt rain-flagged vectors. The newly-named Estelle was tracking west-northwestward at 12 kts south of a subtropical ridge to the north. During the 20th the cyclone continued to strengthen with improved banding features noted in both the northern and southern semicircles, and by evening a cold CDO with tops to -82 C had formed. The MSW had risen to 55 kts by the time Estelle crossed longitude 140W and into Honolulu's AOR around 21/0400 UTC. The first CPHC advisory found Estelle located about 865 nm east- southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and moving northwestward at 9 kts. The MSW was upped to 60 kts based on an improved satellite signature, but Estelle's intensification phase was about to be halted due to increasing southerly shear along the eastern side of an upper-level trough running north/south just east of the Big Island. Satellite CI estimates at 21/1800 UTC were still 65 kts from SAB and the Honolulu forecast office, so the 2100 UTC intensity remained at 60 kts. However, by 22/0300 UTC the LLCC had become exposed to the southeast of the deep convection and the intensity was reduced to 55 kts--and the forecaster added that this might be quite generous. The MSW continued to drop rapidly and Estelle was reduced to tropical depression status at 23/0000 UTC when located about 700 nm east-southeast of Hilo. As Estelle weakened, it returned to a more westerly track as the LLCC, now decoupled from the mid and upper-level circulation, got caught up in the trade wind flow. Interestingly, after Estelle had been downgraded to depression status, the Hawaiian trough with its associated shear began to move west ahead of the tropical cyclone, allowing a mid and upper- level ridge to build to the west and north of Estelle. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew through the system on the morning of 23 August and reported a FLW of 35 kts at 1500 m about 55 nm north of the LLCC. Based on this the MSW was retained at 30 kts. During this time some of the models were hinting at the possibility of some modest re-intensification due to the slightly improved environment, but Estelle continued to slowly weaken as it moved west-southwestward with the trade winds. The MSW was reduced to 25 kts at 24/0000 UTC, but CPHC continued writing advisories for another 48 hours. During the morning of the 25th convection increased within the outer portions of the circulation, but no concentration of convection near the LLCC was observed. This renewed thunderstorm activity was concentrated mainly around the western to southwestern side some 90 nm from the circulation center with scattered convection seen within about 130 nm to the east of the center. The convection was likely in response to instability caused by a weak trough extending southward from Hawaii, and also possibly to the slightly warmer SSTs the depression was moving over. However, by the late afternoon of the 25th the convection was waning and there appeared to be very little evidence of westerly winds to the south of the center. Hence, the final advisory on Tropical Depression Estelle was issued at 26/0300 UTC with the weak 20-kt center located about 300 nm south of the southern tip of the Big Island of Hawaii. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical Storm Estelle. (Report written by Gary Padgett) HURRICANE FRANK (TC-08E) 23 - 26 August --------------- AND Tropical Depression (TC-09E) 23 - 26 August --------------------------------------- Hurricane Frank originated from the remnants of Tropical Storm Earl, which had degenerated into a tropical wave in the Caribbean and subsequently crossed Central America before emerging into the Eastern North Pacific basin around 18/19 August. The ex-Earl wave was monitored on NHC/TPC's Tropical Weather Outlooks as the system tracked south of Mexico until finally satellite images began to show a persistent CDO on the morning of the 23rd. This feature and the likelihood of further development prompted NHC to issue the first advisory package on Tropical Depression 08E at 0900 UTC on 23 August. The depression was then centred approximately 375 nm south of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Moving northwestward at 10 kts, TD-08E quickly organized to become Tropical Storm Frank at 23/1500 UTC. A 23/0927 UTC AMSU overpass indicated a tight inner core of convection with a long convective band that had wrapped more than halfway around the centre. Also of interest, a very small disturbance was developing about 700 nm west of Frank and this was to become Tropical Depression 09E. But before the first advisory would be issued on this system, Tropical Storm Frank exploded into rapid strengthening mode which took NHC a little by surprise. The MSW was raised to 55 kts based on the appearance of a banding eye feature in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. A well-defined circular eye feature was also visible on 23/0927 UTC AQUA and 23/1459 UTC SSM/I overpasses. Shortly after the 23/1500 UTC advisory, NHC issued a special advisory denoting this sudden intensification and accordingly updated the forecast positions and maximum winds. At 1645 UTC (the issuance time of the special advisory) Frank was located approximately 335 nm south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Frank reached hurricane intensity at 23/2100 UTC, the same time that the small disturbance was promoted to Tropical Depression 09E with 25-kt winds. TD-09E was located about 850 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja and about 640 nm west of Hurricane Frank. At 2100 UTC on 23 August Tropical Depression 09E was moving slowly eastward at 2 kts. This movement was to be the only suggestion that Hurricane Frank might be influencing TD-09E's track, and there was no further interaction observed between the two storms during their lifetimes. TD-09E was located over marginally warm water and near the eastern edge of dry air at mid-to upper levels--not the best ingredients for tropical cyclone development--and the forecast for this system was for no more than tropical storm intensity. Also, the close proximity of Frank was expected to limit intensification. Infrared images and micro- wave data showed a poorly-organized cyclone with the LLCC located to the south of the deep convection, and this appearance was maintained through the 24th. The only event worth noting that day was that the MSW was raised to 30 kts after satellite estimates reached T2.0. Also, TD-09E had turned onto a westerly heading which was to take it into an increasingly hostile environment and eventual oblivion. Meanwhile, Hurricane Frank, which was on a northwesterly heading, had continued its strengthening phase and reached a peak intensity of 75 kts at 24/1500 UTC when located about 300 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Hurricane Frank crossed the 26 Deg C isotherm late on the 24th and as it did so, began to weaken. The intensity was brought down to 65 kts at 0300 UTC on 25 August, and as SSTs were becoming progressively colder ahead of the storm, both Frank, as well as its neighbour, Tropical Depression 09E, were forecast to be dissipating in a couple of days. In fact, Frank blew itself out just as quickly as it had rapidly strengthened into a hurricane. By 25/0900 UTC the central convection had diminished considerably, leaving some weak banding features in the southeastern quadrant. Frank was downgraded to a tropical storm with 50-kt winds at this time, and this intensity was maintained for another six hours, after which it had become a virtually convection-free vortex. Frank was downgraded to a tropical depression at 26/0300 UTC when centred approximately 465 nm west of Cabo San Lucas. TD-09E was faring no better. The little remaining deep convection had been stripped away from this weak system by the moderate south-southwesterly shearing conditions. Both Frank and TD-09E continued for a little while longer as westward-moving low-level swirls of clouds until NHC signed both their death warrants at 26/1500 UTC. Frank's final position was approximately 550 nm west of Cabo San Lucas, and TD-09E's final location was roughly 1200 nm west-southwest of the same point. There were no damages or casualties associated with either of these systems. (Report written by Kevin Boyle) TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE (TC-10E) 26 - 30 August -------------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- A cyclonic disturbance off the southwest coast of Mexico steadily organized late on 24 August and into the following day, quick on the heels of Hurricane Frank. The disturbance tracked slowly west- northwestward, paralleling the coast, and satellite data, in conjunction with a ship report, warranted its upgrade to Tropical Depression Ten-E at 1500 UTC on 16 August when located approximately 315 nm south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. B. Synoptic History ------------------- The depression continued on the same west-northwesterly track it had followed as a disturbance, and quickly intensified to become Tropical Storm Georgette on the second advisory, at 2100 UTC on 26 August. Remarkable visible GOES-10 imagery from this time showed Georgette accompanying no less than three tropical cyclone remnants in the North- east Pacific basin: ex-Hurricane Frank and ex-Tropical Depression Nine-E to its northwest, and the fizzling vortex that was once Tropical Storm Estelle southwest of the Big Island of Hawaii. Georgette strengthened steadily, though less than it would have without moderate easterly shear. It reached its first peak 1-min MSW of 50 kts at 0900 UTC on 27 August, as it made a slow turn to a more westerly track south of an expanding ridge. Georgette was then centered about 350 nm south of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Shear continued to erode Georgette's convection, causing it to weaken slightly on the 28th while it settled on a due westward course. However, convection made a comeback early on the 29th, and the storm reached its second peak of 50 kts at 0900 UTC that day with the lowest CP estimated at 997 mb. Georgette weakened slightly again after its peak, but maintained a more or less steady state as it traveled parallel to the 26 C isotherm until the next day, when cool SSTs and stable air finally made themselves felt in addition to the persistent shear. Georgette weakened rapidly to a depression on the 30th, and the final advisory was issued at 1500 UTC that day, placing the weakening center about 825 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Its large remnant vortex could be tracked in satellite imagery for some time; as late as September 4th it underwent a photogenic interaction with another LOW well to its north. By the 6th, though, Georgette's remnants had fully dissipated. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ There are no known casualties or damage associated with Tropical Storm Georgette. (Report written by John Wallace) HURRICANE HOWARD (TC-11E) 30 August - 5 September ------------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- The disturbance that became Hurricane Howard developed quickly off the southwestern Mexican coast late on 29 August and tracked west- northwestward in the typical fashion of NEP storms. Its organization improved over the course of a day, warranting its upgrade to Tropical Depression Eleven-E at 2100 UTC on 30 August when located approximately 400 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. The new depression subsequently continued on its initial west-northwesterly heading. B. Synoptic History ------------------- The depression steadily strengthened, and became Tropical Storm Howard at 0900 UTC on 31 August. Synoptic conditions and SSTs were quite favorable, and Howard intensified steadily. Interestingly, the SHIPS model forecast an 80% chance of rapid intensification as early as the 1st of September when it was only a 60-kt tropical storm. The NHC followed this guidance in its forecasts, though there was little inkling of it from Howard itself. As Howard reached hurricane status at 0900 UTC on the 1st, SHIPS backed off on the intensity forecast, as did the NHC. Howard strengthened slowly as a Category 1 hurricane for almost a full day before dramatically exploding in intensity early on the 2nd, when it shot up from Category 1 to Category 4 in only 12 hours. Howard's central pressure plunged an estimated 37 mb during that time frame, for an amazing average drop of over 3 mb per hour, firmly within the range for explosive deepening (1). The rapid strengthening quickly took Howard to its peak MSW of 120 kts, with a CP of 940 mb, at 02/1500 UTC when the cyclone was located about 350 nm south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Satellite imagery at this time revealed a classic pinhole eye embedded in a cold, symmetric CDO. After 12 hours at peak intensity and a bend more to the northwest, Howard weakened slowly due to the influence of cooler SSTs along its track. Nevertheless, Howard held on to to major hurricane status for roughly 36 hours as SSTs remained more favorable than anticipated. Rapid weakening commenced late on the 3rd as it finally crossed into hostile waters and entrained stable air, and on the 4th, increasing shear exacerbated its decline. Howard turned steadily more north-northwestward as a trough eroded the ridge to its north. On the 4th Howard weakened to a tropical storm, and the next day to a depression. The final advisory on Tropical Depression Howard was issued at 1500 UTC on 5 September when the weakening LOW was located roughly 500 nm west-northwest of Cabo San Lucas. Howard's low-level remnant vortex was unusually persistent--it lingered off the northern coast of Baja California for three days before turning southwestward ahead of Tropical Storm Isis and losing its identity late on 10 September. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No casualties or damages are known to have been caused by Hurricane Howard. D. References ------------- (1.) It's worth noting that Howard's intensification was somewhat delayed; many, if not most TCs that rapidly or explosively deepen do so soon after reaching hurricane strength. (2.) (Report written by John Wallace) ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for August: 4 tropical depressions ** 3 tropical storms ++ 4 typhoons 2 super typhoons ** - all of these were classified as tropical depressions by JMA only ++ - one of these (Malou/15W) was classified as a tropical storm by several of the Asian TCWCs, but not by JTWC, while another (21W) was classified as a tropical storm by JTWC only Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so reliably provide. In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of warning responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for August ---------------------------------------------- After a rather quiet July, which had come on the heels of a very active June, the tropics of the Western North Pacific exploded to produce a very active August. I do not yet have monthly statistics available for the NWP basin, but if August, 2004, was not the most active August on record there, it certainly must rank in the Top Five. Nine systems reached tropical storm intensity, taking into account the classifications from all the warning agencies. Six of these reached typhoon intensity and two became super typhoons per JTWC's analysis. All but one of the six typhoons struck populated areas in the NWP basin: Meranti - remained at sea Rananim - China Megi - South Korea Chaba - Marianas, Japan Aere - Taiwan, China Songda - Marianas, Okinawa, Japan Four systems were mentioned as tropical depressions in the High Seas bulletins issued by JMA. The first of these was carried as a 30-kt depression on 6 and 7 August. At 06/0600 UTC it was located roughly 600 nm east-southeast of Iwo Jima. The system moved generally in a northeasterly direction and had weakened by 1200 UTC on the 7th, being then located about 600 nm west-northwest of Wake Island. JTWC did carry this system in their STWOs, and at one point assigned a fair potential for development. A track, based on JMA's bulletins, was included for this system in the companion August cyclone tracks file. The remaining three JMA depressions were listed only in the Summary portion of the High Seas bulletins. One weak circulation was located in the vicinity of 20N/141E on 8 August and remained quasi-stationary. Another depression, near 18N/133E, was mentioned only once, at 13/1200 UTC. The final of the three occurred on 27 and 28 August, being quasi- stationary just west of the International Dateline near 10N/178E. JTWC did give this system a fair development potential at one point. No tracks were included for any of these weaker JMA depressions in the August tracks file. A special thanks to Kevin Boyle for writing several of the NWP cyclone reports, and to Huang Chunliang for sending much information regarding meteorological observations as well as damage and casualty figures. TYPHOON MERANTI (TC-14W / TY 0412) 3 - 9 August -------------------------------------- Meranti: contributed by Malaysia, is a type of tree, tall and big which yields soft wood and is often used as a building material A. Storm Origins ---------------- The first NWP tropical cyclone of a very active August had its beginnings with an area of convection which formed on the 2nd and was located approximately 80 nm southwest of Wake Island at 0600 UTC. Animated multi-spectral imagery revealed a weak LLCC with little deep convection while a 200-mb analysis indicated moderate diffluence over the area and weak to moderate vertical shear. An interim STWO was issued at 2100 UTC relocating the disturbance 2 degrees to the south to a point about 225 nm south-southwest of Wake Island. Deep convection was increasing and the potential for further development was upgraded to fair. JTWC issued a TCFA at 03/0230 UTC, placing the center 195 nm south-southwest of Wake Island. Deep convection was increasing over the LLCC, which was located in the divergent quadrant of a TUTT cell to the northwest, and an upper-level analysis indicated moderate diffluence in the equatorward direction and continued weak to moderate vertical shear. B. Synoptic History ------------------- The system continued moving slowly northward and the first JTWC warning on Tropical Depression 14W was issued at 1800 UTC with 30-kt winds. The system was then passing only about 25-35 nm west of Wake Island and was being steered poleward along the western periphery of a near-equatorial mid-level ridge located to the east of the depression. Also at 1800 UTC, JMA upgraded the system to a 30-kt depression. JTWC upgraded TD-14W to tropical storm status on the second warning, issued at 04/0000 UTC, when the cyclone was centered approximately 55 nm north- west of Wake Island. Initially moving slowly north-northwestward, by 0600 UTC the tropical storm was scooting northward at 19 kts. This rapid motion continued until 1800 UTC, when the depression had returned to a slower northwestward motion at 9 kts. The cyclone acquired the name Meranti at 04/1200 UTC when JMA upgraded it to tropical storm status. Meranti remained a minimal tropical storm on the 4th, but by 0000 UTC on the 5th the system was beginning to intensify--both JMA and JTWC were estimating the MSW at 45 kts. The storm was then centered approximately 900 nm west of Midway Island, and had begun tracking north-northeastward. Tropical Storm Meranti continued to quickly intensify, and at 05/1200 UTC was upgraded to typhoon status by both JMA and JTWC, based on CI estimates of 65 and 77 kts. Meranti was by then tracking northeastward at 11 kts, and a basic easterly motion was forecast to continue as the near-equatorial ridge built to the south, allowing the cyclone to track along the northern periphery of the ridge. Typhoon Meranti reached its peak intensity of 90 kts (75 kts 10-min avg per JMA) at 05/1800 UTC when located about 800 nm west of Midway Island. Satellite CI intensity estimates were 90 kts, and a 08/1454 UTC TRMM image depicted a well- organized system with a small, ragged eye. Meranti's intensification had been aided by an increase in the poleward outflow channel. The minimum CP estimated by JMA was 960 mb, and at its peak, gales covered an area approximately 170 nm in diameter. Typhoon Meranti maintained its peak intensity for 18 hours. By 0600 UTC on 6 August satellite imagery revealed that the eye was no longer distinct, and microwave and water vapor imagery indicated that dry air was being entrained into the system from the west. The MSW was reduced to 80 kts at 1200 UTC, based on CI estimates ranging from 55 to 90 kts, and at 1800 UTC the MSW was drastically reduced to 50 kts with satellite CI estimates then ranging from 45 to 65 kts. The cyclone had shown a rapid decrease in deep convection over the past few hours with the LLCC becoming exposed to the southwest of the deepest convection. (JMA also downgraded Meranti to a tropical storm at 1800 UTC, estimating the 10-min avg MSW at 60 kts.) The cyclone was then located roughly 670 nm west- northwest of Midway Island, moving northeastward at 14 kts. Meranti continued tracking northeastward along the periphery of a mid- level steering ridge as it retreated eastward. The storm underwent a slight re-intensification to 60 kts at 07/0000 UTC due to enhanced out- flow into an upper-level LOW located to the southeast. But after that it was downhill all the way. The MSW dropped to 55 kts at 07/0600 UTC and to 45 kts at 1800 UTC. The system was experiencing shear with a partially-exposed LLCC southwest of the deep convection, and there was also evidence that extratropical transition was beginning. At 1800 UTC the center of Meranti was located approximately 700 nm northwest of Midway Island, and had turned to the north due to the approach of a major shortwave trough. JTWC issued the final warning on Meranti at 0600 UTC on 8 August, placing the center about 800 nm northwest of Midway Island. The MSW was estimated at 40 kts, and the system was deemed to have completed extratropical transition. Ever since the downgrade of Meranti from typhoon status on the 6th, JMA's equivalent 1-min avg MSW had been running higher than JTWC's, and JMA maintained Meranti as a tropical cyclone for another 24 hours following JTWC's final warning, declaring the system extratropical at 0600 UTC on 9 August. However, Meranti's remnants quickly weakened--by 1800 UTC consisting of only a 25-kt LOW about 930 nm northwest of Midway Island, or several hundred miles south of the southwestern Aleutian Islands. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Typhoon Meranti. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL STORM MALOU (TC-15W / TS 0411) 4 - 6 August ---------------------------------------- Malou: contributed by Macau, China, is the name for 'agate'--a very hard stone with bands of colour, and is often used for ornaments and souvenirs A. Storm History ---------------- At 0600 UTC on 31 July, JTWC released a STWO on a limited area of convection which had persisted for 12 hours approximately 190 nm north of Guam. The potential for development was assessed as poor. Multi- spectral imagery revealed a large, well-defined LLCC in association with the convection. A day passed with little to write about, but at 02/0600 UTC JTWC upgraded the development potential to fair based on improved organization. However, multi-spectral imagery depicted a partially- exposed system with cycling deep convection to the east of the LLCC. The 03/0300 UTC STWO demoted the suspect area back to poor status as a result of the convection decreasing markedly over the poorly-defined LLCC. Upper-level analysis of UW/CIMSS satellite-derived winds showed that the LLCC had entered a region of confluent flow from the southeast and increased vertical shear. The shear later eased and convection increased over the centre, prompting JTWC to upgrade the development potential back up to fair. At 03/2330 UTC a TCFA was issued and the first warning on Tropical Depression 15W followed at 04/0000 UTC. The first warning placed the newly-formed depression approximately 420 nm southeast of Iwakuni, Japan, and moving northwestward at 21 kts. This rapid movement, southwest of the low-to mid-level ridge, was expected to take the system inland over Japan within 24 hours of inception. As a result Tropical Depression 15W was not expected to intensify further. Also, the environment was becoming less supportive of tropical cyclone maintenance. By 04/1200 UTC Tropical Depression 15w was only 70 nm south-southwest of Kyoto, Japan. The system had been named by JMA, who considered TD-15W a tropical storm and accordingly assigned the international codename Malou. The peak 10-min MSW reached 40 kts per JMA warnings at 04/0600 UTC and this intensity was carried through the next bulletin at 04/1200 UTC. The agency then downgraded Malou to depression status at 05/0000 UTC. Tropical Storm Malou made landfall over Japan between 1800 UTC on 4 August and 05/0000 UTC. By 0000 UTC 5 August it was located over the Sea of Japan and, having completed recurvature, was moving north- northeastward at 21 kts. The system had lost most of its organization during its transit across Japan, and JTWC called it a day at 05/0600 UTC on the now extratropical Malou which was then centred 275 nm northwest of Tokyo, Japan. The remnants of the former tropical cyclone then tracked across northern Honshu on 6 August and into the North Pacific before losing its identity late on the 7th. Editor's Note: The recording of sustained winds at or exceeding gale force by two stations at sea level strongly suggests that Malou was indeed a tropical storm at landfall in Japan. See Section B below. No reports of fatalities or significant damages were received. B. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ The following observations from Japan were compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang. A special thanks to Chunliang for the information. (1) Landfalls (based on the JMA warnings) ========================================= 1. Typhoon 0411 (MALOU) made first landfall near Anan City, Tokushima Prefecture around 04/1330 UTC with a MSW of 40 kts and a CP of 994 hPa. 2. Typhoon 0411 (MALOU) made second landfall near Aioi City, Hyogo Prefecture around 04/1600 UTC with a MSW of 40 kts and a CP of 996 hPa. (2) Rains ========= 1. The most torrential hourly rain during the storm was recorded in Miyagawa, Mie, which reported a record-breaking amount of 101 mm during the 1-hr period ending at 05/0110 UTC. 2. The most significant storm totals [03/1500-05/0700 UTC] included: Kamikitayama, Nara (731 mm); Miyagawa, Mie (589 mm); Mt. Hidegatake, Nara (571 mm); etc. (3) Winds ========= 1. Five stations reported sustained winds of gale force or higher during the storm (values represent 10-min means): Tomogashima, Wakayama (JMA65036, Alt 43m)----40.8 kts Murotomisaki, Kochi (WMO47899, Alt 185m)----39.5 kts Akashi, Hyogo (JMA63496, Alt 3m)----36.9 kts Himezi, Hyogo (WMO47769, Alt 38m)----35.6 kts Tsu, Mie (WMO47651, Alt 3m)----33.8 kts 2. The highest peak gust occurred in Himezi, Hyogo (WMO47769, Alt 38m), which reported 58.9 kts. (4) References (Japanese versions only) ======================================= (Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang Chunliang) TYPHOON RANANIM (TC-16W / TY 0413 / KAREN) 6 - 13 August ---------------------------------------------- Rananim: contributed by the Federated States of Micronesia, is the Chuukese word for 'hello' A. Introduction --------------- Typhoon Rananim was the first of two tropical cyclones to strike China during the month of August and became the worst storm to affect that nation since Typhoon Winnie (1997). B. Storm Origins ---------------- At 0600 UTC on 5 August JTWC issued a STWO for a persistent area of deep convection located approximately 380 nm west-northwest of Guam. Multi-spectral imagery and a QuikScat pass revealed a possible weak LLCC with isolated, disorganized convection. Upper-level analysis indicated that the suspect area was located in a region of weak to moderate wind shear and moderate diffluence. The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours was poor. The LLCC consolidated on the 6th and the deep convection became more persistent and better organized. Based on this, JTWC upgraded the potential to fair. This was superceded by a TCFA at 06/2100 UTC. At this time the disturbance was relocated to a position 560 nm east of Manila in the Philippines. A second relocation was required six hours later, placing the centre nearly a degree south near 14.6N/130.7E. Warnings began on Tropical Depression 16W at 07/1800 UTC with the system moving northward at 10 kts approximately 590 nm south of Okinawa, Japan. C. Synoptic History ------------------- At 0000 UTC 8 August, the poorly-defined centre of Tropical Depression 16W was continuing northward along the northwestern periphery of the near-equatorial ridge. A TUTT was located between that HIGH and the subtropical ridge, and the prognostic reasoning issued at the time indicated that after 24 hours the TUTT would move east, allowing the two ridges to combine. This synoptic situation would result in a north to northeast heading for the depression. QuikScat imagery indicated only weak winds associated with the LLCC with the strongest winds to the southwest. At 08/0600 UTC multi-spectral imagery indicated cycling convection over the broad centre and also several weak low-level vortices rotating around the main area of convection. The name Rananim was assigned when JMA upgraded the system to a tropical storm at 08/1200 UTC. JTWC also promoted TD-16W to tropical storm intensity at this time, setting the MSW at 35 kts. Turning northeastward at 08/1800 UTC Rananim strengthened a little to 40 kts with a recent TRMM pass showing a sheared LLCC on the eastern edge of the deep convection. Tropical Storm Rananim reverted back to its northward motion at 0000 UTC on 9 August, moving to a position 440 nm south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan. At this time both QuikScat and microwave imagery showed a well- defined LLCC which still lay on the eastern side of the deep convection. The MSW increased during the day from 45 kts at 09/0000 UTC to 55 kts at 09/1800 UTC. The forward motion slowed for a time as Rananim turned west-northwestward before picking up again to around 7-8 kts. As the 10th dawned, Rananim was close to typhoon strength. The storm had turned towards the northwest and was located 290 nm south of Okinawa. Deep convection had increased by this time in the northern semicircle while the poleward outflow pattern had also improved. The MSW reached 65 kts at 10/1200 UTC as the newly-upgraded typhoon continued northwestward along the western periphery of the mid-level steering ridge to the northeast. By 0000 UTC on 11 August Typhoon Rananim had closed to within 195 nm south-southwest of Okinawa, its strengthening phase bringing the MSW up to 75 kts. Intensification continued, and satellite imagery showed the development of a small, ragged eye at 11/0600 UTC. After the intensity had reached 85 kts Rananim began to weaken slightly as the outflow became more restricted, but intensification soon resumed again and the storm reached its peak intensity of 90 kts at 12/0000 UTC as it began to approach the Chinese coast. At 0000 UTC on 12 August Rananim was moving north-northwestward approximately 150 nm northeast of Taipei, Taiwan, at its peak intensity of 90 kts. This was maintained as the storm passed north of the island, its track altering to a west-northwesterly heading. This track ultimately carried the cyclone inland at approximately 12/1300 UTC near Wenling, Zhejiang Province, China. As Typhoon Rananim crossed the Chinese coast it began to weaken. By the time the 1800 UTC warning was issued the MSW had fallen to 70 kts. Further weakening occurred as the storm progressed farther west into China. JTWC downgraded Rananim to a 60-kt tropical storm in their final warning at 13/0000 UTC, and JMA issued their final warning on the system as a 30-kt tropical depression at 13/0600 UTC. (See Section E below for more information on the inland progress of the weakening depression.) Editor's Note: JMA's peak 10-min avg MSW for Rananim was 80 kts, and this was also the peak intensity estimated by the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. However, HKO assigned a peak MSW of 85 kts, and NMCC estimated Rananim's peak 10-min avg MSW at 90 kts--equivalent to a 1-min avg MSW of 105 kts. Thus, NMCC and HKO considered Rananim a more intense typhoon than did JTWC. PAGASA named this system Karen, and estimated the peak intensity of Typhoon Karen at 75 kts during the time it was within that agency's AOR. The cyclone had exited PAGASA's AOR by 11/1800 UTC, shortly before reaching its overall peak intensity. The minimum CP estimated by JMA was 950 mb. At Rananim's peak intensity, gales covered a zone 220 nm in diameter. (Rather nostalgic having a typhoon named Karen in the NWP again, even if only an unofficial name. Typhoon Karen of November, 1962, was one of the fiercest and most famous typhoons to strike the island of Guam in modern times.) D. Meteorological Observations from Japan ----------------------------------------- The observations in this section were compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang from data obtained at the following URL: (1) Wind and Pressure Observations (all dates 11 September) =========================================================== Station Min SLP (hPa) Peak Sust Wind (kts) Peak Gust (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Miyakojima 952.9 (1236 UTC) 50.9 (1050 UTC) 94.9 (1110 UTC) Ishigakijima 975.3 (1410 UTC) 51.9 (2030 UTC) 82.0 (0721 UTC) Iriomotejima 978.7 (1656 UTC) 46.1 (2030 UTC) 70.2 (2022 UTC) Yonagunijima 983.5 (1618 UTC) 39.8 (1630 UTC) 68.6 (1618 UTC) (2) Rainfall Measurements ========================= Station WMO Number Alt (m) Storm Total (mm) Period (UTC) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Miyakojima 47927 40 229.0 (*) 09/1500 - 12/1500 Ishigakijima 47918 6 160.0 (#) 09/1500 - 12/1500 Iriomotejima 47917 9 146.5 09/1500 - 12/1500 Yonagunijima 47912 30 165.5 09/1500 - 12/1500 Notes: (*) - 188.0 mm out of the total fell during the 24-hour period ending at 12/0000 UTC (#) - 138.5 mm out of the total fell during the 24-hour period ending at 12/0000 UTC E. Meteorological Observations from China ----------------------------------------- (1) Landfall Observations ========================= According to the NMCC warnings, Typhoon 0414 (Rananim) made landfall in Shitang Town, Wenling City (a sub-city of Taizhou City), Zhejiang Province around 12/1200 UTC with a MSW of 87 kts and a CP of 950 hPa. Interestingly, the town of Shitang was exactly the place which saw the first sunbeam of the new century in Mainland China on January 1, 2000. After rampaging through southern Taizhou City, northern Wenzhou City, northern Lishui City and Quzhou City, Rananim eventually departed from Zhejiang Province and entered Jiangxi Province as a tropical storm around 13/0300 UTC. The storm didn't finish its 22-hour journey in northern Jiangxi Province until 14/0100 UTC, by which time it had weakened to a depression. Tropical Depression Rananim then moved through southeastern Hubei Province and northeastern Hunan Province, where it finally dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone. (2) Rainfall Observations ========================= (a) Zhejiang Province +++++++++++++++++++++ During the 72-hour period ending at 14/0000 UTC, rains > 200 mm were recorded at 35 weather stations, among which 14 stations reported rains > 300 mm with Shabu (located in Huangyan District, Taizhou City), Zhuxi (located in Xianju County, Taizhou City) and Wugen (located in Wenling City--a sub-city of Taizhou City) ranking the top three and reporting 454 mm, 453 mm and 436 mm, respectively. However, it should be noted that it was a hydrological station that reported the most torrential rain during the typhoon--Futou, Yueqing City (a sub-city of Wenzhou City) recorded a 24-hour accumulation of 703.5 mm, which turned out to be a new record for Zhejiang Province's daily rainfall amounts. (b) Jiangxi Province ++++++++++++++++++++ During the 60-hour period ending at 15/0000 UTC, rains > 100 mm were recorded in 39 counties/cities, among which Lushan, Yongxiu, Xinjian, Jinxian, Dongxiang, Fengcheng and Yujiang reported rains > 200 mm with Lushan reporting the highest amount of 268 mm (200 mm out of this total fell during the 24-hour period ending at 14/0000 UTC). (c) Hunan Province ++++++++++++++++++ Rains > 100 mm were recorded at 9 stations during the 24-hour period ending at 15/0000 UTC with Qiyang County reporting the highest amount of 120.6 mm. (d) Taiwan Region +++++++++++++++++ Neuchusan, Hsinchu County, reported the highest storm total of 345 mm during the 35-hour period ending at 12/0300 UTC. (e) Other Provinces +++++++++++++++++++ Some of the stations located in Fujian, Hubei, Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu also reported torrential rains during the typhoon. (3) Wind Observations ===================== Typhoon-force winds were reported in the coastal region of Zhejiang Province with gusts exceeding 78 kts being recorded by 11 stations, among which Dachen Dao (WMO 58666, 28.45E/121.88, Alt 84 m) reported the highest gusts, topping 114.1 kts--a new record for the station--at 12/0721 UTC. Other significant gust observations include: Shamen, Wenling City--104.0 kts, and Sanjiaotang, Sanmen County--90.2 kts. Most areas of Shanghai Municipality reported peak gusts of Beaufort Force 7 to 9 during the storm. F. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Over 18,000,000 residents in Mainland China were affected by the typhoon. Official statistics indicated that Typhoon Rananim had killed 168 people and caused 20.1 billion yuan of direct economic losses in the mainland. In Zhejiang Province Typhoon Rananim killed at least 164 people (falling houses killed 109; landslides claimed 28 lives; another 27 died in flooding or other accidents caused by the storm) with 24 still missing. Also, more than 1800 people were injured in the typhoon. Direct economic losses in the province were estimated at 18.1 billion yuan (2.2 billion US dollars). Official statistics indicated that the typhoon affected 765 towns of 75 counties/cities/districts in the province, where 64,300 houses were toppled, 55,000 head of livestock were killed and the infrastructure destroyed. The typhoon also destroyed 1,163 kilometers of roads, damaged many embankments and water conservancy facilities and cut off power supplies and communication. Some 467,900 people were evacuated and more than 9,900 ships were called back before the catastrophe. Additional articles on the effects of Typhoon Rananim in China may be found at the following URL: G. Historical Note ------------------ The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has evaluated Typhoon Rananim as the strongest landfalling typhoon for the Chinese Mainland since Typhoon Sally made landfall in Wuchuan, Guangdong Province on September 9, 1996, and the most intense for Zhejiang Province since Typhoon Wanda (no number was assigned by NMC, which did not begin to number tropical storms until 1959) made landfall in Xiangshan, Zhejiang Province on August 1, 1956. (Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang Chunliang) TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (TC-17W / TS 0414) 10 - 13 August ------------------------------------------ Malakas: contributed by the Philippines, means 'strong' or 'powerful' A. Storm Origins ---------------- During the second week of August a reverse-oriented monsoon trough extended from the Philippine Sea northeastward for hundreds of miles. Several weak circulations formed and died along the trough. One disturbed area with an exposed LLCC can be seen in satellite imagery around 22N/150E at 0600 UTC on 8 August. JMA began mentioning this system as a weak tropical depression at 09/1200 UTC, locating it near 23N/152E and moving slowly eastward. JTWC cashed in on the system at 0600 UTC on the 10th, locating the weak LLCC about 730 nm west-northwest of Wake Island. Convection associated with the partially-exposed LLCC was primarily located to the west of the center, and a 200-mb analysis indicated moderate diffluence aloft and weak vertical shear. The development potential was initially assessed as poor. Also at 0600 UTC, JMA upped the MSW (10-min avg) to 30 kts. JTWC upgraded the potential for development to fair at 1700 UTC. The LLCC was then located about 670 nm west-northwest of Wake Island, moving northeastward at 11 kts. Deep convection was in a cycling mode, and animated water vapor imagery, enhanced infrared and micro- wave imagery indicated that the system was basically subtropical in nature. Nonetheless, JTWC initiated warnings on Tropical Depression 17W at 1800 UTC, and at the same time JMA upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Malakas. Satellite CI estimates at the time ranged from 25 to 35 kts. Malakas was located approximately 670 nm west- northwest of Wake Island, moving northeastward at 11 kts. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Storm Malakas tracked rapidly northeastward along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge throughout its existence. JTWC upgraded the system to tropical storm status at 0000 UTC on the 11th when it was located about 1300 nm west of Midway Island and moving northeastward at 22 kts. JTWC never estimated the MSW any higher than 35 kts, although the remarks in the JTWC warnings noted that some CI estimates were reaching 45 kts. At 11/1800 UTC water vapor imagery indicated that Malakas was becoming extratropical. JTWC issued their final warning on Tropical Storm Malakas at 0600 UTC on 12 August, placing the center approximately 960 nm west-northwest of Midway Island. Current intensity estimates ranged from 25 to 45 kts, but the system appeared very ragged and was declared extratropical. Both JMA's and NMCC's intensity estimates for Malakas were higher than JTWC's. JMA maintained the MSW (10-min avg) at 40 kts for more than 48 hours with the peak intensity of 45 kts reached at 11/1800 UTC for twelve hours. NMCC's peak estimated MSW (10-min avg) was 40 kts. Whereas JTWC declared Malakas extratropical at 12/0600 UTC, JMA kept the system alive as a tropical cyclone through 1200 UTC on 13 August as it continued to move generally northeastward across the North Pacific. JMA finally declared the system extratropical at 13/1800 UTC, placing the weak 25-kt LOW approximately 575 nm north-northwest of Midway Island. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from this short- lived marine cyclone. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TYPHOON MEGI (TC-18W / TY 0415 / LAWIN) 14 - 22 August ---------------------------------------------- Megi: contributed by South Korea, is the catfish--a large fish found mainly in rivers, lakes, etc and which has long whiskers around its mouth A. Introduction --------------- Typhoon Megi was the fourth of eight significant tropical cyclones to form during August. After Megi formed in the Northwest Pacific, JTWC issued warnings on tropical cyclones without a break through the rest of the month. Megi formed well to the east of the Philippines, moved north- westward through the Ryukyu island chain before recurving northeastward towards South Korea and Japan. Despite peaking at only minimal typhoon intensity, Megi had quite a significant impact on both these nations. B. Storm Origins ---------------- At 2200 UTC on 11 August an area of convection persisted approximately 260 nm west of Guam and was included in JTWC's STWO with the development potential being assessed as poor. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery indicated a possible LLCC in connection with this convection. An upper-level analysis showed moderate diffluence aloft and moderate wind shear over the area. The potential for develop- ment remained poor through the 12th and much of the 13th. At 13/0600 UTC the system was relocated to a position approximately 65 nm south of Guam, and then repositioned again at 13/2300 UTC to a point 60 nm to the north-northwest of Guam. A recent QuikScat pass indicated that the LLCC had consolidated significantly over the previous 12 hours with stronger winds within the deep convection. On this basis, a TCFA was issued at this time. The disturbance was upgraded to Tropical Depression 18W at 14/0000 UTC. C. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Depression 18W formed approximately 150 nm northwest of Guam and initially tracked west-northwestward at 8 kts under the influence of a mid-level steering ridge to its northeast. This heading persisted through the 14th while the forward speed accelerated. There was little change in intensity and deep convection had become less organized by 14/1800 UTC. At this time animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery suggested multiple LLCCs, meaning that the system resembled a monsoon depression. The system appeared to have become a little more consolidated by 15/0000 UTC, as depicted in satellite imagery, but remained at depression status through the 15th. At 0000 UTC on 16 August Tropical Depression 18W was centred 490 nm south-southeast of Okinawa and continuing on its westward journey at a slower pace of 7 kts. The storm still had not become any better consolidated at this time. However, both JTWC and JMA upgraded the system to a tropical storm and it was named Megi. From there, Megi strengthened slowly, reaching 45 kts at 16/1800 UTC after turning northwestward six hours earlier. This new heading was caused by Megi's reaching the end of the subtropical ridge at the same time an upper- level trough was moving eastward over eastern China. Tropical Storm Megi was accelerating north-northwestward at 0000 UTC on 17 August approximately 160 nm south of Okinawa. The upper-level trough began to enhance Megi's outflow and the storm responded by strengthening to 60 kts at 17/1800 UTC. Warnings issued by JTWC indicated that Megi passed 75 nm west of Okinawa at 17/1200 UTC with the island lying well within the radius of gale-force winds. Although the system was upgraded to typhoon intensity at 18/0000 UTC (by both JTWC and JMA) satellite images showed a distorted circulation as it became more involved with the upper-level trough. At this time Megi had reached its maximum intensity of 65 kts and this was to be maintained for the following 24 hours. The typhoon completed recurvature at 18/1200 UTC approximately 210 nm west-southwest of Sasebo, Japan. At 0000 UTC on 19 August Megi was downgraded to tropical storm status as it moved north-northeastward at a quickening pace approximately 620 nm west-southwest of Misawa, Japan. Extratropical transition was well underway as its circulation crossed the southern part of the Korean peninsula, northern Kyushu and then entered the Sea of Japan. From there Megi sped across northern Honshu before completing extratropical transition off the east coast of Hokkaido. Its rapid translational speed likely limited heavy rainfall to a degree over South Korea and Japan but allowed little time for the storm to significantly weaken. JTWC issued its final bulletin at 19/1200 UTC, but JMA continued to follow the storm through their bulletins. In fact, that agency retained typhoon intensity until 19/1800 UTC, at which time Megi was demoted to severe tropical storm status. The last mention of the system as a tropical cyclone was at 20/0600 UTC when it was located southeast of Hokkaido and moving eastward at 33 kts. The resulting extratropical storm continued moving rapidly eastward, reaching a point near 42N/174E by 22/0600 UTC when it was last referenced in JMA's High Seas Bulletins. The lowest CP estimated by JMA was 970 mb. This coincided with that agency's peak estimated intensity of 65-kts (10-min avg). During the time that Lawin (Filipino name for the system) was within PAGASA's AOR, the highest MSW estimated by that agency was 40 kts. The cyclone remained a tropical storm during the period it was within PAGASA's boundary lines, and thus was never upgraded to typhoon status. PAGASA began issuing warnings at 15/0900 UTC and ended warning coverage at 17/0600 UTC after Lawin had exited their AOR. NMCC's peak 10-min avg MSW for Megi was also 65 kts. D. Meteorological Observations from Japan ----------------------------------------- The data in this section, and in the two following, was compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang. A special thanks to Chunliang for sending the information. NOTE: I have left all the wind observations in metres per second (mps). To convert to knots, divide the mps value by 0.51444. For a quickly obtained approximation, just double the mps value. An asterisk (*) preceding an entry denotes a record-breaking value for the relevant station. {Part I}. Landfall ================== According to the JMA warnings, Typhoon 0415 (MEGI) made landfall in Tsugaru Peninsula, Aomori Prefecture, around 19/2100 UTC with a MSW of 30 m/s and a CP of 975 hPa. {Part II}. Top-5 Storm Totals [16/1500-20/1500Z] ================================================ Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) ------------------------------------------------------------ 01 Ehime Tomisato 610 02 Kochi Hongawa 602 03 Miyazaki Mikado 487 04 Kochi Funato 445 05 Kochi Ikegawa 424 {Part III}. Top-5 Daily Rainfall Observations ============================================= Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) --------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Ehime Tomisato *398 [16/1500-17/1500Z] 02 Miyazaki Mikado 338 [16/1500-17/1500Z] 03 Kochi Ikegawa 297 [17/1500-18/1500Z] 04 Kochi Hongawa 289 [17/1500-18/1500Z] 05 Kochi Funato 273 [17/1500-18/1500Z] {Part IV}. Top-5 Hourly Rainfall Observations ============================================= Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) --------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Miyazaki Mikado 123 [17/1210-17/1310Z] 02 Kanagawa Hakone 96 [17/0840-17/0940Z] 03 Hyogo Sumoto 82 [17/0810-17/0910Z] 04 Ehime Tomisato 70 [17/0610-17/0710Z] 05 Kochi Hongawa 64 [17/0540-18/0640Z] {Part V}. Top-5 Peak Sustained Wind (10-min avg) Observations ============================================================= Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 01 Tobishima, Yamagata (JMA35002, Alt 58m) 34 /WSW [19/2000Z] 02 Erimomisaki, Hokkaido (JMA22391, Alt 63m) 28 /NE [20/0130Z] 03 Izuhara, Nagasaki (WMO47800, Alt 4m) *27.1/SSE [18/2050Z] 04 Nomozaki, Nagasaki (JMA84596, Alt 190m) 27 /SE [18/1600Z] 05 Ryotsu, Niigata (JMA54166, Alt 2m) *26 /SW [19/1740Z] {Part VI}. Top-5 Peak Gust Observations ======================================= Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 01 Izuhara, Nagasaki (WMO47800, Alt 4m) *48.7/SSE [18/2036Z] 02 Fukue, Nagasaki (WMO47843, Alt 25m) 41.2/S [18/1723Z] 03 Akita, Akita (WMO47582, Alt 6m) 41.1/SW [19/1839Z] 04 Sakata, Yamagata (WMO47587, Alt 3m) 39.9/SSW [19/1853Z] 05 Hachinohe, Aomori (WMO47581, Alt 27m) 39.2/SW [20/0006Z] {Part VII}. Top-5 SLP Observations ================================== Ranking Station Min SLP (hPa) --------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Izuhara, Nagasaki (WMO47800) 974.1 [18/2112Z] 02 Fukaura, Aomori (WMOWMO47574) 978.7 [19/1939Z] 03 Kumejima, Okinawa (WMO47929) 980.7 [17/0937Z] 04 Aomori, Aomori (WMO47575) 981.3 [19/2104Z] 05 Hachinohe, Aomori (WMO47581) 982.5 [19/2328Z] {Part VIII} References (Japanese versions only) =============================================== http://www.data.kishou.go.jp http://www.osaka-jma.go.jp E. Meteorological Observations from Coastal Zhejiang, China ----------------------------------------------------------- 1. Significant gust observations from the western periphery of Typhoon Megi [Aug 17-18, locally] ====================================================================== Shulang Lake----30.6 m/s Langgang----27.7 m/s Haijiao----27.3 m/s Dongtou----26.8 m/s 2. Significant rainfall observations from the western periphery of Typhoon Megi [18/0000-19/0000Z] ================================================================== Dongtou----86.4 mm Yuhuan----62.9 mm Jinhua----59.2 mm F. Rainfall Observations from the Republic of Korea --------------------------------------------------- 17/1200-18/1200Z (Only amounts >= 100 mm listed) ================================================ WANDO (34.40N 126.70E 35m) 332.5 mm GWANGJU (35.17N 126.90E 74m) 305.5 mm ANDONG (36.57N 128.72E 141m) 210.0 mm JINDO RADAR (34.47N 126.32E 477m) 191.5 mm MOKPO (34.82N 126.38E 39m) 177.0 mm JEONJU (35.82N 127.15E 55m) 171.5 mm JEJU (33.52N 126.53E 23m) 139.5 mm JEJU UPPER/RADAR (33.28N 126.17E 73m) 139.0 mm SANGJU (36.40N 128.15E 100m) 116.0 mm CHUPUNGNYEONG (36.22N 128.00E 245m) 114.0 mm 18/0000-19/0000Z (Only amounts >= 100 mm listed) ================================================ GWANGJU (35.17N 126.90E 74m) 319.5 mm WANDO (34.40N 126.70E 35m) 254.5 mm ANDONG (36.57N 128.72E 141m) 237.0 mm DAEGWALLYEONG (37.68N 128.77E 844m) 220.5 mm JINDO RADAR (34.47N 126.32E 477m) 214.0 mm SOKCHO (38.25N 128.57E 19m) 199.0 mm GANGNEUNG (37.75N 128.90E 26m) 197.5 mm MOKPO (34.82N 126.38E 39m) 195.5 mm DONGHAE RADAR (37.50N 129.13E 37m) 187.5 mm ULJIN (36.98N 129.42E 51m) 183.5 mm DAEGU (35.88N 128.62E 59m) 179.5 mm JEONJU (35.82N 127.15E 55m) 176.5 mm POHANG (36.03N 129.38E 4m) 167.5 mm SANGJU (36.40N 128.15E 100m) 154.0 mm CHUPUNGNYEONG (36.22N 128.00E 245m) 144.0 mm YEONGWOL (37.18N 128.47E 237m) 113.5 mm DAEJEON (36.37N 127.37E 72m) 104.5 mm 18/1200-19/1200Z (Only amounts >= 100 mm listed) ================================================ DAEGWALLYEONG (37.68N 128.77E 844m) 219.0 mm DONGHAE RADAR (37.50N 129.13E 37m) 217.5 mm GANGNEUNG (37.75N 128.90E 26m) 209.5 mm SOKCHO (38.25N 128.57E 19m) 169.0 mm ULJIN (36.98N 129.42E 51m) 165.0 mm POHANG (36.03N 129.38E 4m) 143.5 mm DAEGU (35.88N 128.62E 59m) 108.0 mm G. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ News sources indicated that five people were reported dead or missing after Typhoon Megi lashed South Korea with heavy rains and strong winds. The number left homeless by the storm rose to more than 2400. Dozens of domestic flights were cancelled. Typhoon Megi left at least ten dead in Japan, where the previous month's floods had already caused 15 deaths. Most of the casualties were due to floods and landslides while two persons were lost at sea. Also, a man was killed after being struck by wind-borne advertising boarding. Shikoku and the nearby Tsushima Islands were particularly hard hit--205 mm of rain had fallen on some areas of Shikoku by 0000 GMT 20 August. Megi's landfall on northern Japan resulted in large blackouts as electricity to 130,000 homes was cut. Some 700 people were evacuated from their homes due to the heavy rains and 24 airline flights were cancelled. A group of around 165 primary school students stranded by a landslide in western Japan were success- fully rescued by helicopter. (Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang Chunliang) SUPER TYPHOON CHABA (TC-19W / TY 0416) 18 August - 3 September ------------------------------------------- Chaba: contributed by Thailand, is a tropical flower--the shoeflower (genus Hibiscus) A. Storm Origins ---------------- The origins of the long-lived Chaba lay in an area of convection which developed and persisted on 18 August about 135 nm north-northwest of Kwajalein. Animated water vapor imagery indicated cycling convection while a 200-mb analysis depicted weak to moderate vertical shear and good diffluence associated with an upper-level LOW to the northeast. The development potential was assessed as fair. Later on the 18th, at 1230 UTC, JTWC issued a TCFA for the system which was then located about 410 nm northeast of Pohnpei. Convection was increasing and the system's organization was improving. An 18/0952 UTC SSM/I pass indicated the presence of a LLCC associated with the deep convection. JTWC issued the first warning on developing Tropical Depression 19W at 18/1800 UTC, locating the center approximately 1080 nm east of Guam, moving west- northwestward at 8 kts with an initial intensity of 30 kts. JMA also classified the system as a 30-kt tropical depression at 1800 UTC. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Depression 19W was located in a favorable environment for intensification with good poleward outflow and an outflow linkage with an upper-level LOW to the northeast. JTWC upgraded the system to tropical storm status at 0600 UTC on 19 August, and JMA followed suit six hours later, assigning the name Chaba. At 1200 UTC Tropical Storm Chaba was located approximately 900 nm east of Guam with 45-kt winds, moving northwestward at 12 kts. The cyclone was forecast to continue in a general westerly to west-northwesterly direction under the steering influence of a ridge to the north. Chaba continued to slowly intensify as it moved westward on the 19th and 20th. Winds had reached 60 kts by 20/0000 UTC, and at 1200 UTC JTWC upgraded the cyclone to typhoon intensity, based on CI estimates of 45 and 65 kts. The storm was then centered approximately 620 nm east of Guam and moving westward at 14 kts. (JMA did not upgrade Chaba to typhoon status for another 30 hours.) JTWC's upgrade to typhoon status was possibly premature--a detailed analysis around 1800 UTC indicated that the upper-level circulation might be decoupled from the surface circulation. However, on the 21st intensification began to accelerate. A 21/0401 UTC AMSU-B pass revealed a large, irregular, cloud-filled eye. The MSW was upped to 75 kts at 1200 UTC and to 90 kts at 1800 UTC, based on CI estimates of 77 and 90 kts. Also at 1800 UTC, JTWC upgraded Chaba to a 75-kt typhoon. The cyclone was located approximately 185 nm east-southeast of Saipan and tracking westward at 15 kts. The 22nd of August was a stormy day in the Mariana Islands. The intensifying typhoon approached, passing between Tinian and Rota shortly after 1200 UTC. The MSW had increased to 125 kts by this time, and by 1800 UTC had jumped up to 155 kts, making Chaba the 4th super typhoon of the year. At 1200 UTC the center of Typhoon Chaba was located about 20 nm northeast of Rota and about 40 nm south of Tinian. After passing the Marianas Super Typhoon Chaba began to track toward the west-northwest and later northwest as it moved around the south- western periphery of the steering ridge. Satellite CI estimates remained at 140 and 155 kts throughout the 23rd; consequently JTWC's MSW estimate remained at 155 kts until 1800 UTC, when it was reduced slightly to 150 kts. JMA increased their 10-min avg MSW estimate to 105 kts at 22/1800 UTC where it remained pegged for 36 hours. At its peak Chaba was an average-sized typhoon with gales covering an area roughly 400 nm in diameter. At 23/1800 UTC the typhoon was centered approximately 465 nm south of Iwo Jima, moving northwestward at 11 kts. Chaba under- went a slight weakening on the 24th with the intensity dropping to 140 kts at 1200 UTC, but by 1800 UTC had re-intensified slightly to 150 kts. JMA's 10-min avg MSW reached a peak of 110 kts at 24/0600 UTC and remained at that level until 26/0000 UTC. The minimum central pressure estimated by JMA was 910 hPa. Super Typhoon Chaba continued tracking northwestward on the 24th and at 1800 UTC was located about 325 nm south-southwest of Iwo Jima. Chaba's track became increasingly north-northwesterly on 25 August as it tracked around the western periphery of the ridge. The storm maintained intensity with JMA's 10-min avg MSW remaining at 110 kts and JTWC's 1-min avg MSW dropping to only 145 kts. At 1800 UTC on the 25th the cyclone was centered about 530 nm east-southeast of Okinawa and moving north-northwestward at 8 kts. Some weakening occurred on the 26th with a substantial weakening of the convection in the northern semicircle due to dry air entrainment. By 1800 UTC the MSW had dropped to 110 kts (95 kts per JMA) and deep convection was confined mainly to the southern and eastern sides of the system. Typhoon Chaba was located at 1800 UTC about 470 nm southeast of Sasebo, Japan, and still moving slowly in a north-northwesterly direction. Over the next 24 hours the cyclone's forward motion gradually slowed down such that by 27/1800 UTC it had almost come to a standstill about 390 nm south- east of Sasebo. Convection along the northern periphery made a slight comeback during the 27th, and a 27/0932 UTC SSM/I pass revealed that Chaba had developed concentric eyewalls. After weakening to 100 kts at 27/0600 UTC, the MSW was upped back to 115 kts at 1800 UTC. Chaba began to track more to the west-northwest on 28 August due to weak ridging northeast of the system. The intensity remained at 115 kts until 28/1200 UTC, when it was lowered to 110 kts. Satellite imagery around this time suggested that Typhoon Chaba was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. At 1800 UTC the cyclone was centered approximately 330 nm south-southeast of Sasebo, tracking west-northwestward at 7 kts. Slow weakening ensued on the 29th due to dry air intrusion and land interaction with Chaba's intensity dropping to 90 kts by 1800 UTC. In response to a longwave trough entering the Sea of Japan, the storm's motion became increasingly poleward--at 1800 UTC Chaba was located 165 nm south of Sasebo and moving north-northwestward at 8 kts. By 0000 UTC on 30 August the typhoon was accelerating to the north- northeast as it made landfall over extreme southeastern Kyushu. The MSW estimates from JTWC and JMA at this time were 85 kts and 80 kts, respectively. At 30/0600 UTC Chaba was located over northern Kyushu about 80 km southwest of Iwakuni, and six hours later was crossing southwestern Honshu as it continued to accelerate. By 1800 UTC the weakening cyclone had emerged over the Sea of Japan and was downgraded to tropical storm status by both JTWC and JMA. It was then centered approximately 315 nm west-southwest of Misawa, Japan, and was racing northeastward at 31 kts. Peak winds were estimated at 60 kts by both agencies as Chaba slowly began the transition into an extratropical cyclone. Chaba subsequently crossed the extreme northern tip of Honshu and eastern Hokkaido. JTWC issued their final warning at 31/0600 UTC when the by-now extratropical gale was located about 220 nm north-northeast of Misawa and racing north- eastward at 43 kts. JMA followed suit and declared Chaba extratropical at 1200 UTC. The extratropical LOW moved into the Sea of Okhotsk and became quasi-stationary just east of Sakhalin Island for several days as it slowly wound down. By 0000 UTC on 3 September the former super typhoon had weakened into a 25-kt low-pressure area. C. Meteorological Observations in the Marianas ---------------------------------------------- As Typhoon Chaba passed through the Mariana Islands, Saipan reported a maximum 1-min avg sustained wind of 49 kts with a peak gust of 61 kts at 22/1209 UTC. A report of 130-kt winds gusting to 150 kts at 22/1454 UTC which was noted in one of the JTWC warnings appears to be spurious. The NWS office at Agana, Guam, measured a 24-hour rainfall total of 144 mm between 21/1200 and 22/1200 UTC. D. Japanese Meteorological Observations --------------------------------------- The information in this section was supplied by Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China. A special thanks to Chunliang for sending the data. (To convert metres/second (m/s) to knots, divide by 0.51444, or for an approximate conversion, just double the m/s value.) NOTE: "*" = record-breaking values for relevant stations. {Part I}. Landfalls (based on the JMA warnings) =============================================== 1. Severe Typhoon 0416 (CHABA) made landfall near Kushikino City, Kagoshima Prefecture around 30/0030 UTC with a MSW of 40 m/s and a CP of 950 hPa, making it the first typhoon (named tropical cyclone) that made landfall over Kyushu in nearly 5 years (since Bart, which made landfall on the 23rd of Sep, 1999). 2. Severe Typhoon 0416 (CHABA) made landfall near Hofu City, Yamaguchi Prefecture around 30/0800 UTC with a MSW of 35 m/s and a CP of 965 hPa. 3. Typhoon 0416 (CHABA) made landfall near Tomakomai City, Hokkaido around 31/0500 UTC with a MSW of 30 m/s and a CP of 975 hPa. {Part II}. Top-5 storm totals [26/1500-31/1500 UTC] =================================================== Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) ------------------------------------------------------------ 01 Miyazaki Ebino 821 02 Nara Mt.Hidegatake 797 03 Miyazaki Mikado 756 04 Miyazaki Kamishiiba 560 05 Miyazaki Miyakonojo 544 {Part III}. Top-5 daily rainfall obs ==================================== Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) --------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Miyazaki Mikado *584 [29/1500-30/1500Z] 02 Miyazaki Ebino 531 [29/1500-30/1500Z] 03 Ehime Jojushya 485 [29/1500-30/1500Z] 04 Kochi Hongawa 483 [29/1500-30/1500Z] 05 Kagoshima Koniya 417 [28/1500-29/1500Z] {Part IV}. Hourly rainfall obs ============================== No value >= 100 mm. {Part V}. Top-5 peak sustained wind (10-min avg) obs ==================================================== Ranking Station Peak wind (mps) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Murotomisaki, Kochi (WMO47899, Alt 185m) 46.8 [30/1030Z] 02 Seto, Ehime (JMA73341, Alt 143m) 39 [30/0610Z] 03 Aburatsu, Miyazaki (WMO47835, Alt 3m) *37.0 [29/2320Z] 04 Tobishima, Yamagata (JMA35002, Alt 58m) *36 [31/0040Z] 05 Tomogashima, Wakayama (JMA65036, Alt 43m) *33 [30/1410Z] {Part VI}. Top-5 peak gust obs ============================== Ranking Station Peak wind (mps) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Murotomisaki, Kochi (WMO47899, Alt 185m) 58.3 [30/1028Z] 02 Makurazaki, Kagoshima (WMO47831, Alt 30m) 58.1 [29/1737Z] 03 Aburatsu, Miyazaki (WMO47835, Alt 3m) *55.8 [30/0147Z] 04 Tokushima, Tokushima (WMO47895, Alt 2m) 54.1 [30/1043Z] 05 Yakushima, Kagoshima (WMO47836, Alt 36m) 50.6 [29/1356Z] {Part VII}. Top-5 SLP obs ========================= Ranking Station Min SLP (hPa) --------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Makurazaki, Kagoshima (WMO47831) 953.7 [29/2255Z] 02 Hitoyoshi, Kumamoto (WMO47824) 954.1 [30/0233Z] 03 Kagoshima, Kagoshima (WMO47827) 955.5 [30/0041Z] 04 Naze, Kagoshima (WMO47909) 961.3 [29/0750Z] 05 Yakushima, Kagoshima (WMO47836) 961.4 [29/1940Z] {Part VIII} References (Japanese versions only) =============================================== D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ The casualty toll in Japan due to Typhoon Chaba was thirteen dead with four reported missing. Electrical power was lost to 341,700 households, and 13,000 homes were flooded. Additional articles on the aftermath of Typhoon Chaba can be found at the following link: (Report written by Gary Padgett with significant contributions by Huang Chunliang) TYPHOON AERE (TC-20W / TY-0417 / MARCE) 19 - 31 August ---------------------------------------------- Aere: contributed by the United States, is the Marshallese word for 'storm' A. Storm Origins ---------------- An area of convection developed approximately 250 nm east of Pohnpei and was included as a suspect area with poor development potential in JTWC's STWO at 0600 UTC on 13 August. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery revealed a weak LLCC situated in an environment of weak vertical shear and favourable divergence aloft. Deep convection increased in association with this LLCC on the 14th, and as the system began to consolidate JTWC issued the first in a series of TCFAs at 15/2200 UTC. This statement relocated the centre to a position 205 nm east of Fananu. The next day at 2200 UTC the disturbance was passing 40 nm north of Chuuk. A second TCFA was required at 17/0300 UTC to cover for a relocation and placed the centre 220 nm south-southeast of Guam. While microwave imagery revealed a well-defined mid-level circulation, an upper-level analysis indicated the area was under moderate shear at this time. Another TCFA was issued at 18/0300 UTC as the suspect area passed 260 nm south of Guam. Signs of a weak LLCC were noted south of the deep convection in animated multi-spectral imagery. A STWO issued at 18/0600 UTC mentioned that while the development potential remained good, the system had become less organized over the previous six hours. At 18/1230 UTC the potential was dropped to poor after an 18/0330 UTC AMSR-E micro- wave image failed to show a distinct LLCC. However, deep convection began to consolidate once again over the LLCC and the potential was raised to fair at 2200 UTC. The final TCFA was issued at 19/0100 UTC when the system was passing 100 nm north of Yap. A 200-mb analysis indicated a more favourable environment with weak shear and good diffluence aloft. JMA first mentioned the disturbance as a tropical depression at 19/0600 UTC, and this was followed six hours later by JTWC's first warning. B. Synoptic History ------------------- At the time of the first warning, issued at 1200 UTC on 19 August, Tropical Depression 20W was located 500 nm west of Guam and heading in a northwesterly direction at 10 kts along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level steering ridge. The system didn't appear particularly well- organized at this time, but it exhibited moderate convection and radial outflow. Based on low shear in the immediate vicinity of the storm, further development was expected and the system reached tropical storm status at 0000 UTC on 20 August. JMA also at this time upgraded the MSW to 35 kts (10-min avg) and assigned the name Aere. Tropical Storm Aere was relocated at 20/0600 UTC after animated multi-spectral imagery revealed that the LLCC had consolidated approximately 100 nm to the northeast of the 0000 UTC position. An upper-level LOW had been inhibiting development up to this point. However, the LOW shifted to the northwest of the tropical cyclone and freed the outflow pattern to the north. Overall, Tropical Storm Aere was looking healthier and by 20/1800 UTC the MSW had increased to 55 kts. At 20/0000 UTC Typhoon Aere crossed into PAGASA's AOR and that agency named it Marce from their internal names list. At 21/0000 UTC Tropical Storm Aere/Marce was still tracking northwestward some 630 nm southeast of Okinawa, Japan. It was upgraded to typhoon intensity at 21/0600 UTC when the MSW had reached 65 kts. Multi-spectral satellite imagery showed a decrease in convective coverage but cloud tops had cooled sufficiently enough to support continued intensification. Typhoon Aere's intensity remained at 65-kts through the 21st and there was little change during the 22nd. At 22/0000 UTC enhanced water vapor imagery showed that dry air was being advected into the eastern and northern parts of its circulation while microwave data showed a lack of symmetric convection around the LLCC. The system was moving on its continuing northwesterly track and was located approximately 380 nm south of Naha, Okinawa. Aere edged a little closer to the Japanese island during the course of the day. JMA raised their 10-min MSW estimate to typhoon intensity at 22/1200 UTC. At 23/0000 UTC Typhoon Aere was downgraded to a tropical storm briefly as shear increased due to a passing shortwave trough. The cyclone was located 200 nm south of Naha, Okinawa, at this time. Once the trough had passed by and the shear relaxed, JTWC raised the MSW back up to 65 kts and upgraded Aere back to typhoon strength. This intensity was maintained for the rest of the 23rd as the storm swayed from west- northwest to north-northwest and slowed its forward speed. Typhoon Aere began to intensify and had reached 75 kts by 23/1800 UTC when its 50-nm eye was located 250 nm south of Naha, Okinawa, and moving away from the island. At 24/0000 UTC deep convection had decreased to the north of the eye but the MSW continued to climb and reached a peak intensity of 85 kts at 24/1200 UTC. Aere's heading had been wobbling from northwest to west-northwest, but a definite westerly heading was finally established. As the storm crossed the northern tip of Taiwan it started to feel the effects of land interaction and subsequently began to weaken. Typhoon Aere then turned west-southwestward at 25/0000 UTC and made its closest approach to Taipei, Taiwan, passing approximately 30 nm to the north. The MSW started to fall as the storm crossed northern Taiwan and headed into the Taiwan Strait. Aere had weakened to a 65-kt typhoon by the time it reached the Chinese coastline near Pingtan at 25/1200 UTC. It then turned southwestward, and this heading persisted into the next day. This peculiar track carried the storm past Xiamen around 25/1800 UTC and close to Shantou at 26/0000 UTC, seemingly en route to Hong Kong. At this time Aere was downgraded to tropical storm status and had lost much of its deep convection, leaving the LLCC completely exposed. Surface observations from Shantou reported wind speeds of around 10-15 kts. Aere lingered off Guangdong for awhile before turning west, and at the time of the final warning at 26/1200 UTC, was moving further inland as a 30-kt tropical depression approximately 115 nm northeast of Hong Kong. The remnants of Typhoon Aere remained identifiable in satellite images until around 28 August, and JMA maintained the left- overs as a tropical depression until 0000 UTC 31 August. JMA, NMCC, and HKO all estimated peak intensities of 80 kts (10-min avg). CWB considered Aere as a moderate typhoon with the MSW estimated at 75 kts. During the time that Aere/Marce was within PAGASA's AOR, the MSW set by that agency was 65 kts. The typhoon reached its maximum intensity after crossing PAGASA's western boundary at 23/1800 UTC. The lowest CP estimated by JMA was 955 mb. C. Meteorological Observations from Japan ----------------------------------------- The data in this section was compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China. A special thanks to Chunliang for sending the information. (To convert metres/second (m/s) to knots, divide by 0.51444, or for an approximate conversion, double the m/s value.) {Part I}. Ryukyu obs ==================== Station Min SLP (hPa) Peak SW (m/s) Peak Gust (m/s) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Miyakojima 971.0 [23/1546Z] 27.2 [23/1600Z] 51.3 [23/1546Z] Ishigakijima 961.7 [23/2305Z] 34.3 [24/0110Z] 56.0 [24/0036Z] Iriomotejima 961.1 [24/0037Z] 30.6 [24/0220Z] 45.2 [24/0204Z] Yonagunijima 976.6 [23/2241Z] 27.3 [23/2320Z] 43.5 [23/2316Z] Station Storm total (mm) ------------------------------------------- Miyakojima 280.5 [22/0600-24/1600Z] Ishigakijima 314.5 [22/2100-25/1400Z] Iriomotejima 265.0 [22/1400-25/1100Z] Yonagunijima 202.0 [22/2000-25/0200Z] Note 1: The 24-hr [23/1500-24-1500Z] accumulations reported by the four stations reached 164.0 mm, 204.0 mm, 192.5 mm and 147.5 mm, respectively. Note 2: Miyakojima------WMO47927, Alt 40 m Ishigakijima----WMO47918, Alt 6 m Iriomotejima----WMO47917, Alt 9 m Yonagunijima----WMO47912, Alt 30 m {Part II}. Focus on Ishigakijima, Okinawa (WMO 47918, ROIG, 24.34 N 124.16E, Alt 6 m) =========================================================== 1. Introduction --------------- The Island of Ishigakijima spent as long as 8 hrs (approximately) within Aere's eye, which was about 110 km in diameter, during the storm. See the next section for the "eye obs". 2. Hourly sustained wind/rain/pressure obs ------------------------------------------ DD/HH (UTC) Wind (mps/dir) Rain in past 1 hr Pressure in hPa (Land/SLP) --------------------------------------------------------------------- 23/08 17.9/NNE 6.5 mm 983.2/984.5 23/09 18.4/NNE 10.0 mm 982.3/983.6 23/10 16.0/NNE 4.5 mm 980.8/982.0 23/11 19.1/NNE 8.0 mm 979.6/980.8 23/12 19.5/NNE 7.0 mm 978.9/980.1 23/13 18.6/NNE 7.5 mm 976.9/978.1 23/14 21.8/N 8.0 mm 972.7/973.9 23/15 24.6/N 23.0 mm 967.7/968.9 23/16 11.7/N 6.0 mm 963.8/965.0 23/17 6.6/NW 0.0 mm 961.8/963.0 23/18 6.6/NW 0.0 mm 960.9/962.1 23/19 8.2/W 0.0 mm 960.9/962.1 23/20 11.0/WSW 0.5 mm 961.6/962.8 23/21 15.8/SW 0.0 mm 961.8/963.0 23/22 17.7/SW 0.5 mm 961.9/963.1 23/23 23.8/SW 0.0 mm 961.1/962.3 24/00 26.9/SW 2.5 mm 963.1/964.3 24/01 30.6/SW 20.0 mm 965.0/966.2 24/02 32.2/SSW 35.0 mm 971.1/972.3 24/03 28.3/SSW 18.0 mm 974.0/975.2 24/04 27.7/SW 8.5 mm 976.4/977.6 24/05 26.4/SSW 15.0 mm 977.7/978.9 24/06 25.3/S 21.5 mm 980.2/981.5 24/07 22.4/SSW 26.5 mm 980.9/982.2 24/08 22.2/SSW 8.5 mm 982.1/983.4 24/09 22.5/S 9.0 mm 983.1/984.4 24/10 20.8/S 7.0 mm 983.8/985.0 24/11 16.4/S 9.5 mm 986.3/987.6 24/12 15.5/S 5.0 mm 987.2/988.5 24/13 15.8/S 5.0 mm 988.0/989.3 24/14 17.4/S 5.5 mm 987.9/989.2 Note 1: None of the Aere-related hourly sustained winds recorded outside the period [23/08-24/14Z] reached gale force. Note 2: The hourly values may not represent the true extrema. Please refer to Part I for the extrema of the Ishigakijima obs. {Part III} References (Japanese versions only) ============================================== D. Meteorological Observations from China ----------------------------------------- All the information in this section was compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang. A special thanks to Chunliang for his efforts. To convert wind speed in meters/second (m/s) to knots (kts), divide m/s by 0.51444. For an approximate conversion, simply double the m/s value. {Part I} Landfalls ================== According to the NMC bulletins, Typhoon 0418 (Aere) made four land- falls in the mainland of Fujian Province, which possesses the most flexuous coastline of China: Typhoon 0418 (Aere) made landfall in Gaoshan Town, Fuqing City (a sub-city of Fuzhou City), Fujian Province, around 25/0830 UTC with a MSW of 36 m/s and a CP of 970 hPa. As a result, Aere turned out to be the first tropical cyclone to make land- fall in Fuzhou with typhoon intensity since Typhoon 0102 (Chebi). Interestingly, the town of Gaoshan was exactly where deadly Typhoon 0102 (Chebi) made landfall on June 23, 2001. Typhoon 0418 (Aere) next made landfall in Shishi City (a sub-city of Quanzhou City), Fujian Province, around 25/1330 UTC with a MSW of 33 m/s and a CP of 970 hPa. Severe Tropical Storm 0418 (Aere) also made land- fall in Gangwei Town, Longhai City (a sub-city of Zhangzhou City), Fujian Province, around 25/1830 UTC with a MSW of 30 m/s and a CP of 975 hPa. Finally, Tropical Storm 0418 (Aere) made landfall in Dongshan County, Zhangzhou City, Fujian Province, around 26/0230 UTC with a MSW of 20 m/s and a CP of 985 hPa. This typhoon also passed over at least two of the Fujian islands, including Pingtan Dao (Fuzhou City) and Nanri Dao (Putian City), the former island being the fifth biggest one in China: (1) Typhoon Aere made landfall in Pingtan County, Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, around 25/0750 UTC. (2) Typhoon Aere made landfall in Nanri Town, Xiuyu District, Putian City, Fujian Province, just shortly after moving into the sea from Fuqing's Longgao Peninsula, where the typhoon made its first landfall on the mainland. {Part II} Fujian Obs ==================== (1) Rain ======== During the 72-hr period ending at 27/0000Z, rains >100 mm were recorded in 26 cities/counties, 7 of which reported rains >200 mm with Fuding (located in Ningde City) reporting the highest amount of 663 mm. (Qinglan Reservoir located in Zherong County, Ningde City, reported the highest 24-hr accumulation of 504 mm.) (2) Wind ======== 13 WMO stations of coastal Fujian reported gusts of gale force or higher: Station Peak Gust ------------------------------------------------ Zherong, Ningde City 32 m/s (ESE) Fu'an, Ningde City 20 m/s (ENE) Fuding, Ningde City 20 m/s (ENE) Pingtan, Fuzhou City 27 m/s (NNE) Fuqing, Fuzhou City 20 m/s (NE) Xianyou, Putian City 20 m/s (NNE) Tong'an, Xiamen City 22 m/s (NW) Xiamen, Xiamen City 33 m/s (NNW) Chongwu, Quanzhou City 25 m/s (NW) Zhangpu, Zhangzhou City 21 m/s (N) Dongshan, Zhangzhou City 19 m/s (W) Longhai, Zhangzhou City 21 m/s (WNW) All the insular automatic stations of northern and middle Fujian reported gusts of typhoon force or higher: Station Peak Gust DD/HH -------------------------------------------------------- Taishan 37.1 m/s (N) 24/1600Z Xiyang 43.8 m/s (ENE) 25/0300Z Pingtan 35.8 m/s (NNE) 25/0800Z Nanri 43.8 m/s (NW) 25/0800Z Weitou 34.4 m/s (S) 25/1600Z {Part III} Taiwan Obs ===================== (1) Rain ======== A few stations recorded storm totals exceeding 1000 mm: Station Rainfall (mm) -------------------------------------------------------- Matala, Miaoli County 1546 [22/1600-25/1200Z] Pai Lan, Hsinchu County 1335 [22/1600-25/1200Z] Hsuen-lin, Taichung County 1243 [22/1600-25/1500Z] (2) Wind ======== Only those stations that reported peak sustained winds of gale force or peak gusts of typhoon force are given: Station Peak Sustained Wind Peak Gust (mps/dir/Local Date) (mps/dir/Local Date) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ An Bu (WMO46691) 25.9/350/24th 42.2/10 /24th Taipei (WMO46692/58968) 13.3/320/24th 33.1/350/24th Chu-tzu-hu (WMO46693) 10.2/180/25th 33.1/20 /25th Keelung (WMO46694) 17.9/210/25th 34.4/240/25th Ilan (WMO46708) 20.9/330/24th 34.1/330/24th Lanyu (WMO46762/59567) 30.4/250/24th 44.1/250/24th Kinmen (WMO46736/59135) 24.1/270/25th 31.9/280/25th {Part IV} Zhejiang Obs ====================== During the 31-hr period ending at 25/0700Z, rains >100 mm were recorded at 14 stations with Haishan (162.7 mm), Pingyang (157.4 mm) and Wencheng (152.6 mm) ranking the top three. Significant gust reports included: Zhaoshandu, Rui'an City (coastal station)--34.9 m/s; Beiji (insular station)--31.4 m/s; Nanji (insular station)--30.4 m/s; Dachen (insular station)--30.1 m/s. Around 24/1755Z, 6 villages located in Gaoqiao Town, Yinzhou District, Ningbo City, were struck by a tornado, which was triggered by Typhoon Aere. The tornado did cause some economic losses, but no casualties were reported. {Part V} Guangdong Obs ====================== Torrential rains lasted for nearly five days (Sep 26--30) in Guangdong during the period when the remnant depression, formerly Typhoon Aere, traversed the province from the neighboring Fujian. Zhuhai City was hammered by Aere's downpours when the remnant arrived in the mouth of Pearl River on the 29th. Five stations recorded 6-hr [0000-0600Z] rainfall amounts that ranged from 100 mm to 160 mm. The most torrential rain--38 mm/minute--was reported by the urban area of the city. {Part VI} Other Obs (from Hainan Province, Hong Kong & Macao Special Administrative Regions ==================================================================== Station Coordinates Rainfall (mm) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Haikou, Hainan 20.03N 110.35E 154.0 [28/00-29/00Z] Dongfang, Hainan 19.10N 108.62E 312.8 [27/00-30/00Z] Danxian, Hainan 19.52N 109.58E 252.9 [27/00-30/00Z] Hong Kong Int. AP, Hong Kong 22.32N 113.92E 184.1 [28/00-30/00Z] Taipa Grande, Macao 22.17N 113.57E 215.0 [28/00-30/00Z] The HKO report on TY Aere can be found at the following link: {Part VII} Damage and Casualties ================================ (1) Fujian ========== Preliminary statistics on August 26 indicated that the typhoon had caused 2.485 billion yuan of direct economic losses and was responsible for two deaths in the province. Aere also affected 3,479,900 residents in 421 towns of 48 counties of 6 cities in Fujian, where three cities were flooded, 10,100 houses were toppled, 236 embankments and thousands of water conservancy facilities were damaged. Some 937,000 people were evacuated and 10,676 vessels were called back before the typhoon's arrival. (2) Taiwan ========== Typhoon Aere pounded northern Taiwan with torrential rains and strong winds before hugging the coast of Fujian, causing widespread disruption to air and sea transport. It caused 24 deaths and left nine people missing in the region. Water supply to 910,000 households was cut off, and power supply to 360,000 households was disrupted. The economic losses were estimated to have been at least NT$ 400 million. {Part VIII} First "Black Typhoon" for Fuzhou ============================================ The local government of Fuzhou, the provincial capital of Fujian, ordered work to stop at all construction sites and cancelled after-class activities at schools and universities when the city was under their first Black Typhoon Signal in history. (Starting from 2003, a system of color-coded typhoon warning signals labeled white, green, yellow, red and black in an ascending order was employed in Fujian Province to give information to the residents on the existence and the potential threat of a tropical cyclone. A Black Typhoon Signal, the most severe of the five grades, indicates that a tropical cyclone is affecting the district or is to affect the district within the next 12 hours with sustained wind of Beaufort Force 12 or higher.) Typhoon Aere played havoc with the traffic of the city. Flights associated with the Changle Int. AP, which happened to be the destination of my flight which departed from Shanghai (please refer to Part IX for HCl's encounter with Typhoon Aere), were either cancelled or delayed and the whole airdrome had to be shut down for several hours during the typhoon. Meanwhile, the traffic of the urban area, as well as several thruways starting from the city, were also under extraordinary control. Trains and buses travelling on local short-distance routes, however, were immune from the storm. {Part IX} HCl's "Reconnaissance Mission" of Aere ================================================ Below is my experience of coming up against Typhoon Aere in the air 10,000 meters above the sea level. (Time in BJT, i.e., GMT + 8 hours.) I booked an airline ticket of MF8548 (Shanghai--Fuzhou, 05:05 p.m. on the 25th of August) 9 days ahead of schedule. Of course, I didn't know beforehand that it would become my first "reconnaissance mission" of a typhoon, which shared the same destination with me exactly on the same afternoon. I had just arrived at the Shanghai Hongqiao Int. AP that afternoon when I saw the notice, saying that MF8548 had been cancelled due to the severe weather condition at the port of destination. Nevertheless, a few hours later we were informed that all the scheming passengers of MF8548 had been incorporated into another delayed flight, MF8542, which should have been the first one heading for Fuzhou that afternoon. My plane eventually took off from Shanghai Hongqiao Int. AP in good weather condition at 09:35 p.m. So the take-off and climb were smooth enough for me to enjoy the beautiful nocturnal view of Shanghai in a merry mood. As soon as we reached cruising altitude, the public address announced to the passengers that the plane was scheduled to arrive at the port of destination on time at 10:35 p.m. Being on a night flight for the first time (though not out of my original intention), I was fairly busy looking out of the window just next to my seat--12F--during the in-flight services. At first I managed to see nothing but the faint horizon. However, as we flew more and more southward, the grey clouds emerged and then increased gradually. I also noticed that all the video screens overhead were kept off all the way. Besides, everything remained well-regulated with a few weak turbulences until the "landing time" (of Plan A) drew near. A powerful turbulence burst occurred around 10:20 p.m. and lasted for nearly two minutes. The plane was bounced so violently that one of the passengers became sick. I realized afterwards that the "Fasten Seat Belts" sign lit before the turbulence, was not cancelled until the plane pulled in.) It was 10:35 p.m., the exact scheduled time for landing, but the plane refused to even drop in altitude! As a result, the majority of the passengers (including me), whether acquaintances or not, began to whisper to each other. Before long, the public address sounded again in due course, notifying that the landing time had been delayed to 11:05 p.m. (so they were going to go with Plan B), which would become the bona fide one. During most of the "overtime", we were lacking in everything except one-by-one turbulences, among which, another powerful one made another passenger ill. This one also lasted for nearly two minutes when the plane was struggling through the typhoon as if were riding on an obstinate and unruly bronco. Surprisingly, the eventual landing turned out to be a relatively smooth one. "Thank goodness! At last we're safe now!"...some of the passengers remarked when the plane was sliding on the damp airstrip of Fuzhou Changle Int. AP around 11:05 p.m. Looking back on the satellite pics, the hazy eye of Typhoon Aere, which had weakened into an intensity of 65 knots (per NMC), was located near 24.6 N/118.6 E when my plane was landing near 26.0 N/119.5 E. E. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ News sources to date indicate that Taiwan took the brunt of Typhoon Aere. Thirty-four people were killed as a result of the storm, and fifteen died as a mudslide buried a remote mountain village in the north of the island. Agricultural losses were estimated at 7.7 million New Taiwan dollars ($US 313,000). No casualties were reported from China, thanks to the evacuation of 930,000 people from low-lying and coastal areas. More than 40,000 fishing boats were returned to port and flights in the region were cancelled. Forty-three deaths in the Philippines were caused by heavy rains induced by the typhoon. Nearly 16,000 people were evacuated from homes engulfed in floodwaters. A swollen river near the northern province of Nueva Ecija blocked traffic on a main road and stranded hundreds of commuters overnight. Eight provinces in northern and central Luzon were most severely affected with 70% of the provinces under water at one point. Additional articles on the aftermath of Typhoon Aere may be found at the following link: (Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang Chunliang) TROPICAL STORM (TC-21W) 26 - 31 August ---------------------------------- A STWO issued by JTWC on 24 August noted that an area of convection associated with a possible weak LLCC had developed approximately 700 nm east-southeast of Guam. A QuikScat pass revealed a broad, weak circu- lation center with increasing, though unorganized, deep convection. An upper-level analysis indicated weak to moderate vertical shear with weak diffluence aloft. The potential for development was assessed as poor. Twenty-four hours later the disturbance had moved westward to a point approximately 450 nm east-southeast of Guam with little change in organization. Around 1500 UTC a QuikScat pass indicated consolidation of the LLCC; hence, the development potential was upgraded to fair. A TCFA was issued at 25/2130 UTC as convection continued to consolidate around the LLCC in the face of weak vertical shear and favorable divergence. JMA classified the system as a 30-kt tropical depression at 0000 UTC on 26 August, and JTWC issued their first warning on Tropical Depression 21W at 0600 UTC. The depression was located about 435 nm east of Guam and moving slowly west-northwestward at 4 kts. Animated multi-spectral imagery revealed well-defined low-level cloud lines converging in on the LLCC with deep convection consolidating over the center. The depression gradually intensified and was upgraded to Tropical Storm 21W by JTWC at 26/1800 UTC when located about 365 nm east of Guam. Satellite CI estimates were 30 and 35 kts, and convection had strengthened some around the LLCC. By 27/0600 UTC the center had become fully-exposed with the deep convection being displaced westward over Guam. Unfavorable vertical shear was forecast to continue, and the storm was downgraded back to depression status at 1200 UTC when centered approximately 245 nm east-northeast of Guam. The slowly weakening tropical cyclone continued to move initially west-northwestward, then gradually turned back to the west. The final warning from JTWC at 0600 UTC on 28 August placed the center 60 nm north of Saipan. JMA continued to follow the residual depression in their High Seas Bulletins for a few more days, the final reference being at 0000 UTC on 31 August when the weak LOW was located approximately 750 nm west of Saipan. JTWC was the only warning agency which classi- fied this system as a tropical storm. No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from short-lived Tropical Storm 21W. (Report written by Gary Padgett) SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (TC-22W / TY 0418 / NINA) 27 August - 11 September --------------------------------------------- Songda: contributed by Vietnam, is a branch of the Red River (the largest in northern Vietnam) which rises in China and is characterized by waterfalls with high hydroelectric potential A. Introduction --------------- Songda was the second super typhoon to affect the Marianas and Japan in a week, forming a one-two with Super Typhoon Chaba. Songda formed in a similar location to Chaba and followed an almost identical track across the Pacific, through the northern Marianas before recurving and making landfall over Japan, the third typhoon to strike that nation so far this year. B. Storm Origins ---------------- At 1100 UTC 26 August JTWC issued a STWO including a new area of convection which had developed and persisted approximately 210 nm north- east of Kwajalein. This is roughly the same area that spawned Super Typhoon Chaba. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery revealed that the deep convection was becoming more organized over an already established LLCC. As upper-level analysis indicated weak vertical shear and favourable divergence over the area, the potential for development was assessed as fair. A TCFA followed at 27/1130 UTC, by which time the disturbance was passing north of Kwajalein. Deep convection continued to consolidate over the centre and multi-spectral imagery noted a weak spiral banding feature. The first warning on Tropical Depression 22W was released by JTWC at 27/1200 UTC, locating the centre 270 nm east of Eniwetak, moving westward at 6 kts. C. Synoptic History ------------------- From the time of the first warning at 1200 UTC 27 August it was all systems go. Because of the ideal environmental conditions it was located in, Tropical Depression 22W underwent rapid strengthening and was soon upgraded to tropical storm intensity at 27/1800 UTC, but the system had to wait a further six hours to be assigned the name Songda. JMA upgraded the MSW to 35 kts (10-min avg) at 28/0000 UTC. Rapid intensification continued, bringing Songda to the verge of typhoon intensity by 28/1200 UTC. The early stages of eyewall development were noted on a 29/1444 UTC AMSR-E microwave pass. Intensification then ceased for awhile. Mean- while, Songda had been tracking steadily west-northwestwards and was located approximately 175 nm northwest of Eniwetak at 29/0000 UTC. The storm passed north of that island between 28/1400-1500 UTC, bringing sustained winds of tropical storm force and gusts to typhoon force. The tropical cyclone was following the periphery of the low to mid-level ridge located to the north and was expected to continue to do so over the next few days. Continuing on its west-northwesterly heading, Songda reached typhoon intensity at 0600 UTC 29 August approximately 760 nm east of Saipan. At this time the MSW was raised to 70 kts based on CI estimates of 55 and 65 kts. There was no further strengthening during the 29th, and in fact there was very little else to report through the day, other than a typhoon watch being issued for the island of Agrihan at 29/1558 UTC, and also a brief westerly turn at 29/1800 UTC. Typhoon Songda was still located some 580 nm east of Saipan, but the other island communities of the northern Marianas were, by this time, more than aware of the storm's presence, especially after Super Typhoon Chaba's rampage through there only a week before. Songda strengthened a little more to 75 kts at 30/0000 UTC and the system began to expand in areal coverage. The tropical cyclone took a brief westerly jog as it resumed its intensifi- cation phase at 30/1200 UTC. By 1800 UTC Songda had become a rather strong typhoon with a MSW of 95 kts. At 0000 UTC 31 August Typhoon Songda was moving west-northwest at 10 kts across the Pacific with an increased MSW of 105 kts. At this time it was located 250 nm east-northeast of Saipan. During the 31st Typhoon Songda intensified significantly to 120 kts at 0600 UTC, to 125 kts at 1200 UTC, and to 130 kts six hours later. Thus, Songda became the fifth super typhoon of 2004. The wind radii was representative of an average to large-sized typhoon with gales extending up to 180 nm southwest of the centre and 64-kt winds up to 50 nm in all quadrants. For the northern Marianas there was good news and bad news. The good news was that Songda had made a brief northwest turn at 31/1200 UTC, ensuring that Saipan and Tinian would escape the worst of the winds. Unfortunately, this left Pagan and Agrihan to bear the brunt of the storm, and typhoon-force wind gusts were being observed on Pagan and Agrihan as the eyewall of Songda approached. At 31/2100 UTC the eye was located about 29 nm east of Pagan and 40 nm northeast of Alamagan. Songda was not a super typhoon for long. The MSW were lowered to 125 kts at 0000 UTC 1 September, but this intensity was maintained for the rest of the day. At this time the typhoon had slowed to around 7 kts and was moving towards the northwest. The centre of Songda passed about 17 nm north-northeast of Agrihan at 01/0300 UTC. The tropical cyclone subsequently accelerated and turned back towards the west- northwest at 01/1200 UTC. Continuing west-northwestward, Typhoon Songda began to slowly weaken on the 2nd with the MSW falling 5 kts per warning, bringing the intensity down to 105 kts at 02/1200 UTC. However, the storm began to pick up once again and the MSW rose back up to 110 kts at 02/1800 UTC. Animated satellite imagery indicated an increase in pole- ward outflow which had resulted in improved convection on the northern side of Songda's circulation. The cyclone had also turned westwards and was now heading for its next port of call--Okinawa. At 0000 UTC 3 September Typhoon Songda was moving westwards at 10 kts approximately 525 nm east-southeast of Okinawa. The intensity had held steady during the past six hours, but once again increased to 115 kts at 03/0600 UTC and to 120 kts at 03/1200 UTC. At 03/0600 UTC Typhoon Songda had earned another name--Nina--after entering PAGASA's area of warning responsibility. The storm began to slow as it turned west-northwestward at 03/1800 UTC. By 04/0000 UTC Songda had moved to a position 300 nm southeast of Okinawa and turned northwestward toward the island at 04/0600 UTC. At this time, a combination of AMSR-E, TRMM, and AMSU microwave data revealed nearly symmetric convection surrounding the eye with the most intense convection located in the eastern eyewall. As Songda began to approach Okinawa it strengthened a little more, reaching a secondary peak of 125 kts at 04/1200 UTC. This was maintained for the rest of the day. Typhoon Songda's strength began to wane as it neared Okinawa. The MSW dropped to 120 kts at 0000 UTC 5 September when it was located 80 nm southeast of Okinawa. Typhoon Songda passed a short distance north of the island at 05/1000 UTC with the lowest SLP of 924 mb recorded at 0928 UTC. Weakening continued as the storm tracked to the northwest. The intensity fell to 110 kts at 05/1200 UTC and remained at this strength for another six hours. Songda turned north-northwestward at 06/0000 UTC, and then northwards as it pushed through the ridge axis on its way towards Japan. The 06/0000 UTC placed the centre 285 nm south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan. The MSW fell below 100 kts at this time and down to 90 kts at 06/1200 UTC as Songda recurved north-northeastwards and began to accelerate. Water vapor imagery at 06/1800 UTC showed dry air being sucked into the southwestern quadrant. At 0000 UTC 7 September Songda was about to make landfall on the northwestern coast of Kyushu and at this time was centred 50 nm southwest of Sasebo, Japan. The intensity had held at 90 kts since 1200 UTC of the 6th, but began to slowly drop off as the storm tracked further inland. Songda came ashore near the city of Nagasaki with the MSW (10-min avg) at 80 kts and a CP of 945 hPa. The tropical cyclone accelerated northeastwards at 34 kts as it moved across southwestern Japan. Weakening continued as the typhoon moved into the Sea of Japan. The MSW dropped below typhoon strength and Songda was downgraded to a tropical storm at 07/1800 UTC. By this time its forward speed had increased to 50 kts. JTWC issued the final warning at 1800 UTC, placing the centre approximately 100 nm north of Misawa, Japan. Satellite imagery indicated that Songda was embedded in the subtropical jet and had completed its transformation into an extratropical LOW. JMA released their final bulletin at 08/0600 UTC. The extratropical gale continued eastward as it slowly weakened. By late on the 10th it had crossed the Dateline in the Bering Sea and was last referenced in JMA's bulletins at 11/0000 UTC. JMA regarded Songda as a Very Severe Typhoon with a peak intensity of 90 kts, and the lowest CP estimated by that agency was 935 hPa. NMCC and CWBB estimated the MSW at 120 kts and 100 kts, respectively. During the time that Songda/Nina was in PAGASA's AOR, the typhoon's maximum intensity was estimated at 85 kts. HKO did not issue warnings on this system since it remained outside their AOR. D. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Following are some observations from Japan and Korea compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang. A special thanks to Chunliang for sending the information. An asterisk (*) beside any number indicates a new record value for the relevant station. To convert wind speed in metres/second (m/s) to knots (kts), divide m/s by 0.51444, or to approximate, just double the m/s value. {Part I}. Landfall (based on the JMA warnings) ============================================== 1. Very Severe Typhoon 0418 (SONGDA) made landfall over northern Okinawa Island around 05/1000 UTC with a MSW of 45 m/s and a CP of 925 hPa. 2. Severe Typhoon 0418 (SONGDA) made landfall near Nagasaki City around 07/0030 UTC with a MSW of 40 m/s and a CP of 945 hPa. {Part II}. Top-5 Storm Totals [03/1500-08/1500Z] ================================================ Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) ------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Miyazaki Morotsuka 905 02 Miyazaki Mikado 573 03 Miyazaki Nishimera 549 04 Ehime Jojushya 545 05 Tokushima Kitou 542 {Part III}. Top-5 Daily Rainfall Obs ==================================== Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Miyazaki Morotsuka 358 [05/1500-06/1500Z] 02 Ehime Jojushya 342 [06/1500-07/1500Z] 03 Miyazaki Nishimera 304 [05/1500-06/1500Z] 04 Miyazaki Ebino 301 [06/1500-07/1500Z] 05 Ehime Tomisato 282 [06/1500-07/1500Z] {Part IV}. Top-5 Hourly Rainfall Obs ==================================== Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Shizuoka Shimizu *102 [04/1320-04/1420Z] 02 Nagano Nagiso *89 [04/0700-04/0800Z] 02 Mie Kiraramine *89 [05/0940-05/1040Z] 04 Shizuoka Inatori *88 [04/1120-04/1220Z] 05 Mie Kiinagashima *85 [05/1130-05/1230Z] {Part V}. Top-5 Peak Sustained Wind (10-min avg) Obs ==================================================== Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Seto, Ehime (JMA73341, Alt 143m) *42 [07/0230Z] 02 Nomozaki, Nagasaki (JMA84596, Alt 190m) 38 [06/2330Z] 03 Okinoerabu, Kagoshima (WMO47942, Alt 27m) 36.7 [05/1330Z] 04 Hiroshima, Hiroshima (WMO47765, Alt 4m) 33.3 [07/0540Z] 05 Ube, Yamaguchi (JMA81436, Alt 5m) *32 [07/0110Z] {Part VI}. Top-5 Peak Gust Obs ============================== Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Hiroshima, Hiroshima (WMO47765, Alt 4m) *60.2 [07/0520Z] 02 Asosan, Kumamoto (WMO47821, Alt 1142m) 57.1 [07/0419Z] 03 Saigou, Shimane (WMO47740, Alt 27m) *55.8 [07/0809Z] 04 Okinoerabu, Kagoshima (WMO47942, Alt 27m) 53.6 [05/1314Z] 05 Unzendake, Nagasaki (WMO47818, Alt 678m) *53.2 [07/0122Z] {Part VII}. Top-5 SLP Obs ========================= Ranking Station Min SLP (hPa) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 01 Nago, Okinawa (WMO47940) *924.4 [05/0928Z] 02 Saga, Saga (WMO47813) 944.3 [07/0140Z] 03 Nagasaki, Nagasaki (WMO47817) 948.0 [07/0044Z] 04 Iizuka, Fukuoka (WMO47809) 948.7 [07/0228Z] 05 Naha, Okinawa (WMO47936) 950.0 [05/0723Z] {Part VIII} References (Japanese versions only) =============================================== {Part IX} Rainfall Obs from the REPUBLIC OF KOREA ================================================= Only amounts >= 100 mm listed: ULLEUNGDO (37.48N 130.90E 220m) 112.0 mm [06/00-07/00Z] ULLEUNGDO (37.48N 130.90E 220m) 101.5 mm [07/00-08/00Z] MUNSAN (37.88N 126.75E 31m) 103.4 mm [06/12-07/12Z] POHANG (36.03N 129.38E 4m) 110.5 mm [06/12-07/12Z] E. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ News reports indicate that Typhoon Songda killed 20 people and injured 700 others in Japan. In addition, 15 crew members of a vessel were reported missing. Songda arrived shortly after three earthquakes had struck the country a few days prior. (Report written by Kevin Boyle with contributions by Huang Chunliang) ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for August: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for August: 1 tropical depression Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for August --------------------------------------------------- The 2004-2005 Southern Hemisphere season got off to an early start with the formation of a tropical depression (designated as Tropical Depression 01) by Meteo France La Reunion. This system formed just west of 90E and subsequently moved southeastward into Perth's AOR where it became Tropical Cyclone Phoebe on 2 September (TC-01S per JTWC). Since Phoebe became a named cyclone in September, it will be covered in next month's summary. ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for August: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for August: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for August: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. ************************************************************************* AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive these via e-mail, please send me a message.) Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and Chris Landsea): Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2003 (2002-2003 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. PREPARED BY Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South China Sea) E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific) E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South China Sea) E-mail: huangchunliang@hotmail.com Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific) E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Uploaded: 12.07.04 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com