GARY PADGETT'S GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - DECEMBER 2000 !!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!! It has been brought to my attention that I should repeat in the cyclone tracks file the caveat which is included in the Author's Note at the end of the cyclone summaries. The tropical cyclone tracks which I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/ advisories/advices/bulletins from the various tropical cyclone warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and analysts at the several warning centers. For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere: In the near future I shall contact the other tropical warning centers to see if I can locate any links to sites where their "best tracks" might be archived. ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 NOTE: The tracking information for Northwest Pacific Basin tropical cyclones is based primarily upon operational warnings from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U.S. Air Force and Navy at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Comparisons were made with track coordinates given in advisories from the meteorological services of Japan (JMA) and the Philippines (PAGASA). In general, whenever the center position differed by more than 40-50 nm from JTWC's, an entry was made in the Remarks column. The 1-min avg MSW were taken from the JTWC advisories while the 10-min avg MSW were obtained from PAGASA's advisories if the storm were in PAGASA's area of responsibility; otherwise, they were gleaned from JMA's advisories or high seas forecasts. In a few cases the 10-min MSW given by PAGASA and JMA did not agree; in those cases I reported the higher value. The estimates of central pressure were obtained from JMA's advisories. Michael V. Padua, owner of the Typhoon 2000 webpage sent me the PAGASA and JMA tracks for these systems--a special thanks to Michael for his assistance. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Depression ULPIANG 06 - 08 Dec Typhoon SOULIK (34W / 0023 / WELPRING) 28 Dec - 05 Jan ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None (from JMA) Cyclone Number: None Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: ULPIANG JMA Tropical Storm Number: None Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 00 DEC 06 0600 11.4 N 128.7 E 1003 30 See Note 00 DEC 06 1200 11.5 N 127.7 E 30 00 DEC 06 1800 11.5 N 127.0 E 30 00 DEC 07 0000 11.9 N 126.3 E 30 00 DEC 07 0600 11.8 N 124.0 E 30 In Central Philippines 00 DEC 07 1200 12.5 N 122.6 E 25 " 00 DEC 07 1800 12.5 N 122.5 E 25 " 00 DEC 08 0000 12.5 N 121.4 E 20 " Note: The track of this depression is taken completely from bulletins issued by PAGASA and forwarded to me by Michael Padua. The one CP entry at 06/0600 UTC was taken from a SWTO issued by JTWC. However, that Outlook placed a fully-exposed LLCC at 10.4N, 131.9E--almost 200 nm east of the position given in the track above. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: SOULIK Cyclone Number: 34W Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: WELPRING JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0023 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 00 DEC 28 1800 7.0 N 129.0 E 1002 25 JMA Position 00 DEC 29 0000 7.4 N 130.3 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 8.0 N, 129.0 E 00 DEC 29 0600 9.0 N 130.2 E 1000 25 30 00 DEC 29 1200 9.6 N 130.1 E 1000 30 30 JMA: 10.9 N, 129.6 E 00 DEC 29 1800 10.0 N 129.2 E 998 30 30 JMA: 11.0 N, 128.4 E 00 DEC 30 0000 10.4 N 128.6 E 994 35 35 JMA: 10.4 N, 127.4 E 00 DEC 30 0600 10.9 N 127.4 E 992 35 40 00 DEC 30 1200 11.3 N 127.0 E 990 45 45 00 DEC 30 1800 12.2 N 127.8 E 990 50 45 JMA: 11.5 N, 127.5 E 00 DEC 31 0000 12.5 N 128.0 E 990 55 50 JMA: 10.5 N, 127.8 E 00 DEC 31 0600 13.5 N 128.7 E 990 55 50 JMA: 12.6 N, 127.9 E 00 DEC 31 1200 13.8 N 129.6 E 990 55 50 00 DEC 31 1800 14.6 N 130.5 E 985 55 50 01 JAN 01 0000 14.8 N 131.8 E 985 55 50 01 JAN 01 0600 15.2 N 132.4 E 985 55 50 01 JAN 01 1200 15.7 N 133.3 E 985 55 50 01 JAN 01 1800 15.1 N 134.1 E 985 55 50 01 JAN 02 0000 15.5 N 134.6 E 985 55 50 01 JAN 02 0600 15.9 N 134.7 E 990 45 45 01 JAN 02 1200 16.1 N 134.9 E 990 45 45 01 JAN 02 1800 16.7 N 135.0 E 990 45 45 01 JAN 03 0000 17.2 N 135.1 E 985 55 50 01 JAN 03 0600 17.5 N 135.6 E 975 105 60 01 JAN 03 1200 17.9 N 135.9 E 955 115 75 01 JAN 03 1800 18.1 N 136.2 E 945 115 80 01 JAN 04 0000 18.3 N 136.6 E 950 100 75 01 JAN 04 0600 18.4 N 136.9 E 965 90 65 01 JAN 04 1200 18.3 N 137.1 E 985 65 50 01 JAN 04 1800 18.0 N 137.5 E 990 50 45 01 JAN 05 0000 15.5 N 135.9 E 1004 25 25 Relocated - Final Wrng Note: Some PAGASA positions are: 28/1800 UTC - 8.0 N, 130.0 E 29/0000 UTC - 8.3 N, 130.0 E 29/0600 UTC - 8.3 N, 129.8 E 29/1200 UTC - 8.4 N, 129.6 E After 29/1200 UTC PAGASA positions were generally quite close to either JTWC's or JMA's coordinates. The final JMA position, at 05/0000 UTC, was 18.0 N, 138.2 E. The final JTWC coordinates, as annotated above, represent a severe relocation from the previous warning position, based no doubt upon the first visible pictures of the day. The JMV file prepared by JTWC contains revised center coordinates and MSW estimates for the next-to-last two entries: 04/1200 UTC - 17.5 N, 136.8 E - 55 kts 04/1800 UTC - 16.5 N, 136.3 E - 40 kts There likely are other differences between JTWC's operational track and the post-storm JMV file (sent to me by Michael Padua), but I included these points because of the drastic changes made for these parameters at the 1200 and 1800 UTC analysis times. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea NOTE: The tracking and intensity information for North Indian Ocean Basin tropical cyclones is based upon operational warnings from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U.S. Air Force and Navy at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The MSW are based on a 1-min averaging period, which is used by all U.S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. Some information was also obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone (04B) 25 - 28 Dec ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 04B Basin: NIO Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 00 DEC 25 0600 8.2 N 83.7 E 40 00 DEC 25 1800 8.4 N 83.5 E 55 00 DEC 26 0600 8.5 N 82.0 E 65 Near Sri Lankan coast 00 DEC 26 1200 8.5 N 81.0 E 65 IMD Position 00 DEC 26 1800 8.5 N 80.2 E 55 Over Sri Lanka 00 DEC 27 0600 7.9 N 79.4 E 50 IMD: 65 kts at 0300Z 00 DEC 27 1200 8.5 N 78.5 E IMD Position 00 DEC 27 1800 8.1 N 78.3 E 45 00 DEC 28 0000 8.5 N 77.5 E IMD Position 00 DEC 28 0600 8.4 N 77.8 E 35 Over southern India 00 DEC 28 1800 8.6 N 77.3 E 25 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - Longitude 90E to 135E NOTE: The tracking information presented below was obtained from operational warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and at Darwin, Northern Territory. Systems Tracked --------------- Severe Tropical Cyclone SAM (03S) 03 - 10 Dec ************************************************************************* Storm Name: SAM Cyclone Number: 03S Basin: AUW Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 00 DEC 02 0600 10.5 S 127.0 E 1000 30 Darwin TC Advices 00 DEC 02 1200 10.5 S 126.5 E 1000 30 00 DEC 02 1800 11.0 S 126.5 E 999 30 00 DEC 03 0000 12.0 S 127.0 E 999 30 00 DEC 03 0600 13.0 S 127.0 E 999 30 Darwin Gale Warnings 00 DEC 03 1200 12.5 S 128.4 E 998 30 00 DEC 03 1800 13.8 S 128.0 E 997 30 Relocated 00 DEC 04 0000 14.0 S 127.5 E 997 30 00 DEC 04 0600 15.0 S 126.5 E 995 30 00 DEC 04 1200 16.0 S 125.2 E 996 30 Over land 00 DEC 04 1800 14.7 S 125.1 E 995 25 30 Relocated/Over water 00 DEC 04 2200 14.7 S 124.8 E 995 35 30 Perth Warnings 00 DEC 05 0400 14.3 S 124.3 E 993 45 00 DEC 05 1000 14.4 S 123.6 E 990 35 45 00 DEC 05 1600 14.5 S 123.2 E 985 45 00 DEC 05 2200 14.8 S 122.4 E 980 45 55 00 DEC 06 0400 14.7 S 121.8 E 975 55 00 DEC 06 1000 15.2 S 121.5 E 975 55 50 00 DEC 06 1600 15.7 S 121.2 E 975 50 00 DEC 06 2200 16.7 S 121.7 E 980 65 60 00 DEC 07 0400 17.1 S 121.4 E 970 70 00 DEC 07 1000 17.7 S 121.1 E 960 85 75 00 DEC 07 1600 17.8 S 120.8 E 930 115 95 00 DEC 07 2200 17.9 S 120.8 E 925 105 00 DEC 08 0400 18.1 S 121.0 E 925 125 105 00 DEC 08 1000 18.6 S 121.5 E 925 125 105 00 DEC 08 1600 19.2 S 121.7 E 925 100 105 Eye moving inland 00 DEC 08 2200 19.5 S 122.2 E 960 75 Center over land 00 DEC 09 0400 20.1 S 122.7 E 975 65 60 00 DEC 09 1000 20.6 S 123.3 E 984 50 00 DEC 09 1300 20.9 S 123.5 E 988 40 00 DEC 10 0000 21.3 S 124.5 E 992 40 00 DEC 10 0600 21.6 S 124.9 E 995 35 00 DEC 10 1200 21.7 S 125.2 E 996 35 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - Longitude 135E to 160E NOTE: The tracking information presented below was obtained from operational warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Brisbane, Queensland, and at Darwin, Northern Territory. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical LOW 04 - 06 Dec ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: AUE (Tropical LOW in the Gulf of Carpentaria) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 00 DEC 04 2000 10.9 S 143.1 E 1002 25 JTWC Trop. WX Outlook 00 DEC 05 0400 12.5 S 141.0 E 1002 30 Brisbane Warnings 00 DEC 05 0700 13.0 S 139.5 E 1001 30 00 DEC 05 1300 13.5 S 139.5 E 1001 30 00 DEC 05 1930 15.0 S 137.0 E 999 30 Darwin Warnings 00 DEC 06 0130 15.2 S 135.5 E 1001 30 Moving inland 00 DEC 06 0430 15.5 S 135.3 E 1002 Darwin Trop. WX Outlook ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E NOTE: The tracking and intensity information for Southwest Pacific Basin tropical cyclones was taken from real-time operational warnings issued by the Nadi TCWC, Fiji for positions north of 25S and from the Wellington, New Zealand office for positions south of 25S. Warnings from JTWC were utilized for the purpose of making comparisons and for supplying information for times when the Nadi or Wellington warnings were unavailable. The 10-min avg MSW values were taken from the Fiji or New Zealand warnings while the 1-min avg MSW values were obtained from the JTWC warnings. (NOTE: No warnings were issued by JTWC for the two depressions tracked below.) Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Depression (01F) 11 - 15 Dec Tropical Depression (03F) 18 - 19 Dec ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SPA Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 01F Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 00 DEC 11 2100 17.5 S 174.5 E 998 30 00 DEC 12 0000 18.0 S 175.8 E 998 30 00 DEC 12 2100 21.7 S 176.3 E 998 30 00 DEC 14 0000 23.0 S 170.0 W 993 35 See Note 00 DEC 14 0600 24.0 S 169.0 W 993 35 00 DEC 14 1200 23.0 S 168.0 W 998 35 00 DEC 14 1800 23.0 S 169.0 W 998 35 00 DEC 15 0600 22.5 S 170.0 W 1001 35 00 DEC 15 1200 22.5 S 170.0 W 1001 35 Note: The Tropical Disturbance Summary issued at 12/2100 UTC was intended to be the final one on this system as the depression was moving rapidly southeastward into an area of increasing shear and cooler SSTs. The LOW subsequently reached the vicinity of 170W and became quasi-stationary for a couple of days. The gales occurred over an extensive area mainly along the southern periphery of the system. All the gale warnings from 14/0600 UTC onward did not refer to the depression as a "tropical" depression, thereby implying that it was likely more of a hybrid system. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SPA Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 03F Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 00 DEC 18 0600 22.0 S 136.0 W 998 30 00 DEC 18 1200 24.0 S 135.0 W 997 30 00 DEC 18 2100 23.5 S 132.0 W 997 30 00 DEC 19 0000 24.0 S 129.5 W 995 35 See Note 00 DEC 19 0600 24.0 S 127.0 W 995 35 00 DEC 19 1200 25.0 S 125.0 W 995 35 Note: The gales associated with this depression were occurring well north and east of the center. In WMO Region 5 (Australia/South Pacific), by definition, to be named as a tropical cyclone a depression must have gales more or less surrounding the center. Some of the gale warnings for this depression did not contain the word "tropical", so it also may have been somewhat hybrid in character: its location certainly suggests this. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Revised: 03.22.01 / Typhoon2000.com