GARY PADGETT'S MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY DECEMBER, 2001 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) *********************************************************************** DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS --> Most intense Northwest Pacific super typhoon of year forms --> Record-setting low latitude typhoon strikes near Singapore --> Destructive South Pacific cyclone heralds new year *********************************************************************** ***** Feature of the Month for December ***** A SURVEY OF VERY LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES A few months back Jeff Callaghan sent a copy to me of the results of a study he'd performed looking for tropical cyclones forming at unusually low latitudes. In the Australian Region there has been a renewed interest in such systems due to the planned construction of an oil and gas platform to be located at 9.6S, 128.1E. An initial cursory inspection of tropical cyclone tracks in the region suggests that the worst activity has all occurred south of this location. However, there have been quite a few disastrous tropical cyclones in the Indonesian region equatorward of the planned platform location. Jeff's paper also made references to some destructive tropical cyclones which have affected Papua New Guinea in recent decades, and also to the very low- latitude Typhoon Kate in 1970 which struck southern Mindanao with great loss of life. Such a survey of low-latitude cyclones seems especially appropriate now after seeing all the activity at very low latitudes since October, 2001, beginning with Super Typhoon Podul and culminating with the near- equatorial Typhoon Vamei in late December which formed only about 90 nm north of the equator! I have augmented Jeff's survey with a few systems which I've gleaned from perusing JTWC's "best tracks" files. (Mainly some which I remembered something about and looked up the details on.) I have arranged the survey into six sections: (A) Western North Pacific examples (B) Papua New Guinea and South Pacific examples (C) Tropical Cyclone Adel of 1993 (D) Destructive Indonesian cyclones (E) The Flores tropical cyclone disaster of 1973 (F) Concluding discussion It should be understood that in the case of Northwest and South Pacific systems, the storms detailed below do not represent an exhaustive listing of very low-latitude tropical cyclones, just a few examples which well document the fact that locations equator- ward of 10 degrees and occasionally even 5 degrees are not totally immune from tropical cyclone strikes. (A) Western North Pacific examples ---------------------------------- (1) Typhoon Kate, 14-25 October, 1970, reached tropical storm intensity at 5.0N, 140.0E; typhoon intensity at 4.3N, 137.4E; and super typhoon intensity (130 kts) at 6.0N, 126.3E. Kate's winds had climbed to 120 kts when it was located near 4.4N, 130.7E. A reconnaissance flight measured a pressure of 938 mb at 4.5N, 131.0E. Kate struck the Philippine island of Mindanao with a death toll of 631 persons. (2) Typhoon Sarah, 21 March-5 April, 1956, reached tropical storm intensity at 2.2N, 152.7E and typhoon strength at 3.3N, 146.8E. (3) Typhoon Ophelia, 7-16 January, 1958, was a 60-kt tropical storm at 5.9N, 170.9E and a typhoon near 6.0N, 170.0E. The storm struck Jaliut Atoll in the Marshall Islands. Later Ophelia reached a peak intensity of 140 kts near 9.0N, 141.4E. (4) Recent Months - As of the date of this writing (20 April 2002), there have been no less than five NWP tropical cyclones to reach tropical storm strength (per JTWC's operational analysis) since last October: (a) Podul - became a tropical storm near 5.7N, 156.3E (b) 29W (Pabling) - reached tropical storm intensity near 6.2N, 112.5E (c) Faxai - became a tropical storm near 5.0N, 162.0E and a typhoon at 8.7N, 158.8E. Faxai went on to become a super typhoon near 11.6N, 155.0E. (d) Vamei - became a tropical storm and typhoon at 1.5N--only 90 nm north of the equator (e) Mitag - became a tropical storm at 6.5N, 155.2E and a typhoon at 6.6N, 147.8E (B) Papua New Guinea and South Pacific examples ----------------------------------------------- (1) Annie, 10-16 November, 1967, became a tropical storm near 6.3S, 160.5E (2) Hannah, 8-12 May, 1972, reached tropical storm intensity at 6.8S, 154.1E and hurricane intensity near 7.2S, 151.4E (3) Ida, 30 May-5 June, 1972, reached tropical storm intensity at 6.3S, 157.1E and hurricane intensity near 7.4S, 158.4E (4) Bebe, 19-28 October, 1972, became a tropical storm near 7.6S, 179.7W and a hurricane at 8.0S, 179.8E (C) Tropical Cyclone Adel of 1993 --------------------------------- Tropical Cyclone Adel in May, 1993, the last tropical cyclone named by the Port Moresby Warning Center, crossed over Bougainville in its early stages and later struck Goodenough Island off the coast of Papua New Guinea where it was quite destructive. The cyclone then weakened and dissipated near the northeastern coast of Papua New Guinea. The JTWC Best Track indicates peak winds (1-min avg) in Adel of only 45 kts, but the Australian track gives a minimum central pressure of 970 mb, even though this was estimated. Jeff Callaghan's notes indicate that a clear eye was never observed, although Adel displayed a tightly-coiled banding eye at one stage. On Goodenough Island damage was severe. Fifteen people were reported missing and two were known to have drowned. Forests were stripped over the island, and on the west side 342 dwellings were flattened. A repeater tower was bent in half, and Jeff states that the damage to the tower would have required gusts in excess of 100 kts. Adel was a midget cyclone, and, as has been observed with other small Coral Sea systems in recent years (i.e., Rona, Steve, Tessi, Vaughan), was likely considerably more intense than standard Dvorak analysis techniques would have implied. (D) Destructive Indonesian cyclones ----------------------------------- (1) April, 1778 - The Banda Islands (4.5S, 129.8E) were struck by a tropical cyclone. Nearly all houses were unroofed over a 4-hour period and 85% of the nutmeg trees were destroyed. A similar event occurred there in 1811. (2) April, 1841 - On Roti (10.6S, 123.0E), 75 people were killed by a cyclone and many homes destroyed. (3) 1850 - Elderly inhabitants of the Kei Islands (5.8S, 132.7E) tell about a terrible cyclone in the 1850's when many trees were uprooted. (4) April, 1908 - In the Kisar Islands (8.0S, 127.2E), 150 people were killed by a tropical cyclone. (5) April, 1925 - Yamdena (7.5S, 131.5E) was struck by a tropical cyclone which destroyed almost all houses. On nearby Selaru (8.0S, 131.0E) 10 people were killed, hundreds of palms were blown down, most houses were damaged, and the storm surge destroyed many of the plantations. (6) April, 1960 - The ship "Straat Jahore" encountered a hurricane near 8.7S, 129.1E. (7) December, 1960 - Saumlaki (7.9S, 131.3E) was virtually destroyed by a tropical cyclone with most people left homeless. The storm caused 3 deaths and thousands of palm trees were uprooted. (E) The Flores tropical cyclone disaster of 1973 ------------------------------------------------ In April of 1973 a tropical cyclone with an infrared image at 29/0140 UTC near 8.0S, 121.5E, looked like a clone of Cyclone Tracy, which destroyed Darwin in December of 1974. Following is a track for this cyclone, which has come to be known as the Flores Cyclone, held in the National Archives Office in Darwin: 27 April - 0000 UTC - 5.6 S, 128.0 E 27 April - 1600 UTC - 6.0 S, 126.0 E 28 April - 0600 UTC - 6.5 S, 124.3 E 28 April - 1100 UTC - 6.5 S, 122.8 E 28 April - 1600 UTC - 7.1 S, 121.6 E 29 April - 0400 UTC - 8.4 S, 121.4 E No warnings were issued for this cyclone. At the time it was not in the Australian AOR and forecasters at the time were not confident there was a cyclone as the sparse observations gave no indication of the cyclone's presence until an eye became evident just before the storm struck Flores. The eye was embedded in a circular CDO about 160 nm in diameter. The Flores Cyclone was responsible for the loss of a ship with 21 lives, 53 deaths on the Indonesian island of Flores, and perhaps most tragically, the storm caused the deaths of 1500 fisherman lost at sea. At the time, the news of the disaster took a month to reach the Australian press due to the remoteness of the area and the lack of communications in those days. (F) Concluding discussion ------------------------- Tropical cyclones have also formed equatorward of 10 degrees in both the North and South Indian Oceans, but the cases given above are sufficient to establish the fact that while destructive tropical cyclones are very rare in the near-equatorial zone, they can and do occur on infrequent occasions. One final example of a locale that is only rarely affected by intense cyclones is Sri Lanka. Lying completely south of 10N, the island is not subject to many tropical cyclone strikes. However, destructive cyclones of hurricane intensity struck Sri Lanka in November, 1978, and December, 2000. A very low- latitude tropical cyclone (TC-11A) formed near 4.0N, 78.8E on 30 November, 1992, and reached a peak intensity of 50 kts near 5.3N, 76.8E on 2 December. One interesting feature of these low-latitude tropical cyclones is the fact that with few exceptions, they occurred during the spring/fall transition seasons in the respective hemispheres. The systems included above in the Indonesian and Papua New Guinea area all occurred during November/December as the monsoon trough was passing southward on its way down to Australia and in April/May as the trough was retreating back to the Northern Hemisphere. The Northwest Pacific instances cited also tended to be late in the fall or early in the spring with a few out-of-season wintertime occurrences. I would like to extend a very special thanks to Jeff Callaghan for sending me the information and for his permission to use it in this monthly feature. *********************************************************************** ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for December: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for December: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for December: 2 tropical storms 1 typhoon ** 1 super typhoon ** - Classified as a typhoon by JTWC only NOTE: Most of the information on each cyclone's history presented in the narrative will be based upon JTWC's advisories, and references to winds should be understood as a 1-min avg MSW unless otherwise noted. However, in the accompanying tracking document I have made comparisons of coordinates with some of the Asian warning centers when their positions differed from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. A special thanks to Michael V. Padua, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, for sending me the PAGASA and JMA tracks. Also, a special thanks to Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, for sending me tracks based on warnings from the National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), and the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT). In the title line for each storm I plan to reference all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for December ------------------------------------------------ The Northwest Pacific basin experienced an active month of December to close out 2001. Four tropical cyclones developed--two reached typhoon strength. One of these, Faxai, was the strongest typhoon of the year with JTWC estimating the peak intensity at 155 kts. Faxai spent an unusual amount of time very deep in the tropics during its formative stages, remaining within 100 nm of the island of Kosrae for several days. One of the tropical storms, 31W, was carried operation- ally as the early portion of Faxai, but during post-storm analysis it was determined that Faxai had developed from another distinct circu- lation in the monsoon trough. Faxai was then renumbered 33W. This very intense typhoon posed a very serious threat to the Marianas Islands, but fortunately recurved just east of the northern islands in the group. Earlier in the month weak Tropical Storm Kajiki/Quedan had moved through the Philippines into the South China Sea where it dissipated. Finally, one of the most unusual tropical cyclones ever observed developed the day after Christmas east of Singapore. This system, named Vamei, accomplished the incredible (and heretofore considered impossible) feat of reaching typhoon intensity only 90 nm from the equator! ADDENDUM to November Summary ---------------------------- Shortly after posting the November summary, I received some additional information on Typhoon Lingling from Ms. Duong Lien Chau of the Hydromet Service of Vietnam. According to their hourly surface observations, Lingling made landfall between Tuy Hoa (13.1N, 109.3E) and Quy Nhon (13.8N, 109.2E) at about 2100 UTC on 11 November 2001. At Tuy Hoa the maximum sustained winds measured were 62 kts with peak gusts of 70 kts recorded. (I presume the wind averaging period was 10 minutes.) The minimum pressure observed was 981 mb. The storm weakened very rapidly after making landfall. (A special thanks to Ms. Duong for sending me the information.) Tropical Storm Kajiki (TC-30W / TS 0124 / Quedan) 4 - 9 December -------------------------------------------------- Kajiki: contributed by Japan, is the spearfish Quedan: PAGASA name--meaning uncertain in the context of a tropical cyclone identifier. (The word "quedan" is the third person plural, present tense form of the Spanish verb "quedar", which means "to stay" or "to remain".) A. Storm Origins ---------------- An area of convection developed about 550 nm south of Guam on 2 December. Animated satellite imagery depicted improving organization of the convection, QuikScat data indicated the existence of a broad LLCC, and a 200-mb analysis revealed that the disturbance lay under a region of weak to moderate shear. The system moved slowly to the west, and by 0600 UTC on 3 December was located approximately 600 nm west-southwest of Guam. At 04/0100 UTC JTWC issued an interim STWO upgrading the development potential to fair. Multi-spectral imagery indicated improving organization of the LLCC and upper-level conditions were somewhat favorable for development. PAGASA initiated warnings on the system at 04/0000 UTC when it was located roughly 250 nm northwest of Palau, naming it Tropical Depression Quedan. By 0600 UTC Quedan had moved to a position about 250 nm east of the island of Samar in the Philippines. Multi-spectral imagery depicted deep convection forming in convergent northeasterlies associated with the LLCC. The system at the time lay equatorward of an upper-level ridge axis. At 1100 UTC JTWC issued a TCFA for the system, and at 1200 UTC PAGASA upgraded it to Tropical Storm Quedan, located about 200 nm east of Samar. JTWC issued their first warning on TD-30W at 0000 UTC on the 5th, placing the center only about 60 nm off the north- eastern tip of Mindanao, moving westward at 11 kts. (JTWC's JMV file now begins the depression stage at 04/0600 UTC.) At 05/0600 UTC the center of Quedan was located near Leyte Island and was moving west- northwestward at 14 kts. CI estimates were 30 and 35 kts, and JMA upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Kajiki at this time. JTWC upgraded Kajiki/Quedan to tropical storm status at 1200 UTC when the center was in the vicinity of Cebu and Negros islands. CI estimates were 35 kts and convective banding was pronounced in the northern semi- circle. (NMCC had also upgraded the system to tropical storm status at 05/0600 UTC when Japan did, but Hong Kong did not upgrade Kajiki to a tropical storm until 0600 UTC on 7 December.) B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ JTWC temporarily downgraded Kajiki/Quedan to a tropical depression at 05/1800 UTC based on CI estimates of 25 and 35 kts. None of the other warning centers did so, although HKO was still treating the system as a depression. Satellite intensity estimates had risen a little by 06/0000 UTC, so JTWC re-upgraded Kajiki to tropical storm status. The cyclone's center by that time was over the Sulu Sea and tracking westward 11 kts, being steered by a mid-level ridge extending westward from the Philippine Sea over the South China Sea. By 1800 UTC Tropical Storm Kajiki was centered near the Calamian group, or about 200 nm south-southwest of Manila. The storm's track through the central Philippines was very similar to that taken by Tropical Storm Lingling/Nanang about a month earlier. Kajiki continued to move westward and west-northwestward across the South China Sea on 7 November. The system began to slowly weaken under unfavorable shearing aloft. The center had become partially-exposed by 07/0000 UTC, and by 1200 UTC was completely exposed with convection decoupled well to the north of the vortex center. Kajiki's center was located about 365 nm east of Nha Trang, Vietnam, at the time. CI estimates were running around 30 to 35 kts. JTWC downgraded the storm to tropical depression status at 08/0000 UTC when it was centered about 265 nm east of Nha Trang. The other TCWCs, however, were still classifying Kajiki as a tropical storm (the system had already moved out of PAGASA's AOR). At 08/1200 UTC satellite imagery depicted a fully-exposed LLCC with deep convection sheared to the northwest. The MSW was lowered to 25 kts at 08/1800 UTC based on CI estimates of 25 kts, and JTWC issued their final warning on Kajiki at 09/0000 UTC, placing the center approximately 145 nm east-northeast of Nha Trang, drifting west-southwestward at 2 kts. The Asian warning centers had also by this time downgraded the system and terminated warnings. C. Comparisons Between JTWC and Other Centers --------------------------------------------- There was not a wide spread in intensity estimates for Tropical Storm Kajiki. The highest MSW value assigned to the storm by JTWC, NMCC and HKO was only 35 kts, and at the threshold of tropical storm intensity, the difference between a 1-min avg MSW and 10-min avg MSW is very slight. JMA did estimate the 10-min avg MSW to be 40 kts at 05/1800 UTC, but 35 kts at all other times. PAGASA was the most liberal with Kajiki/Quedan's winds, estimating the MSW (10-min avg) at 45 kts from 05/0600 through 07/1200 UTC. This would be equivalent to a 1-min avg MSW of 50 kts. D. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Huang Chunliang sent me some rainfall amounts recorded in China's Hainan and Guangdong Provinces. Even though the center of Kajiki remained far away from China, these two provinces did record some heavy rains associated with the periphery of Kajiki's circulation. Several locations on Hainan Dao recorded between 110 and 140 mm of rain during the 72 hours ending at 10/2100 UTC. Three stations received in excess of 150 mm: Lingshui County (172 mm), Qionghai City (199 mm), and Qiongzhong County (249 mm). Xuwen County in Guangdong Province recorded 70 mm during the period from 09/0000 through 10/0000 UTC. E. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ The heavy rains mentioned above were responsible for agricultural losses of 90,570,000 yuan in Hainan Province. The report for Tropical Storm Kajiki/Quedan on JTWC's website indicates that 2 fatalities were reported in the Philippines with 6400 persons displaced by the storm. I have no other damage or casualty figures available for this cyclone. Tropical Storm (TC-31W) 10 - 13 December ------------------------ A STWO issued by JTWC at 1700 UTC on 10 December noted that an area of convection had developed and persisted about 140 nm southwest of Pohnpei. Animated satellite imagery and a 200-mb analysis indicated unorganized convection in a region of weak to moderate vertical shear. A synoptic analysis and concurrent QuikScat data indicated a developing LLCC, therefore, the development potential was set to fair. (While the first warning was not issued until 11/1800 UTC, the JMV file begins the depression stage at 10/1200 UTC.) A TCFA was issued at 2000 UTC with the LLCC estimated to be approximately 165 nm southwest of Pohnpei, drifting west-southwestward at 3 kts. By 11/0600 UTC the still-broad LLCC had moved to a position about 240 nm east-southeast of Chuuk. A 200-mb analysis and CIMSS shear products indicated that the LLCC lay under a region of weak diffluence. The first JTWC warning on Tropical Depression 31W was issued at 1800 UTC on 11 December, placing the center about 220 nm east-southeast of Chuuk and drifting slowly northward. The initial warning intensity of 25 kts was based upon CI estimates of 25 kts. However, at 1200 UTC the depression was relocated south and east to a position about 140 nm south-southwest of Pohnpei. The center had apparently been moving eastward at 8 kts during the previous few hours, although the warning noted that there were multiple centers within the larger-scale LLCC, making it difficult to determine the exact location of the center. Another relocation was in store for TD-31W--at 12/0600 UTC the primary center was placed at a point approximately 150 nm south- southeast of Pohnpei. The exposed center was moving east-northeastward at 13 kts. Convection had developed near this center and it appeared to be better organized, so was considered the dominant circulation. At 1200 UTC the MSW was increased slightly to 30 kts based on CI estimates of 25 and 30 kts. The center was then located about 120 nm southeast of Pohnpei, moving north-northeastward at 7 kts. The overall organization had improved, and a 12/1038 UTC SSM/I pass revealed a well-organized LLCC with deep convection sheared slightly west of the center. By 1800 UTC the cyclone's center was approximately 100 nm southeast of Pohnpei and was drifting northward at 3 kts. Deep convection was still cycling in intensity, but CI estimates had reached 35 kts, so JTWC upgraded TD-31W to tropical storm status. JMA, which had classified the disturbance as a depression beginning at 0000 UTC on the 12th, did not upgrade the system to a tropical storm at this point. JMA did assign 30-kt winds (10-min avg) to the depression from 12/0600 through 13/0000 UTC. However, only six hours later, at 13/0000 UTC, JTWC downgraded the weak tropical storm to a 25-kt depression. The center had been relocated about 90 nm to the east of the previous warning position, or approximately 160 nm east-southeast of Pohnpei, and was moving east- northeastward at 10 kts. The next JTWC warning, at 0600 UTC, yet again relocated the center to a point over 100 nm southeast of the 0000 UTC position, near the island of Kosrae. However, based upon post- storm analysis, the center which was the subject of the 13/0600 UTC warning appears to have been a new center which had developed within the surface trough in which TS-31W was moving. This new LOW center subsequently developed into Tropical Storm Faxai, which went on to become the year's most intense super typhoon. JTWC's Annual Tropical Cyclone Report now ends the track of Tropical Storm 31W at 13/0000 UTC and begins the track of Faxai--later renumbered 33W--at 13/0600 UTC. Super Typhoon Faxai (TC-33W / TY 0125) 13 - 26 December --------------------------------------- Faxai: contributed by Laos, is a woman's name A. Storm Origins ---------------- The circulation which ultimately became Super Typhoon Faxai had its origins in a low-latitude monsoon trough in the Caroline Islands. Operationally, Tropical Storm 31W and Faxai were considered to be one tropical cyclone, but in post-analysis, JTWC determined that the LLCC which became Faxai developed as a separate entity from the earlier TS-31W. The JTWC warning on TD-31W at 13/0600 UTC effected a relocation of about 100 nm southeast of the 13/0000 UTC warning position. Later analysis showed that a new center had already developed in that location near the island of Kosrae prior to the dissipation of the LLCC of TD-31W. Therefore, the history of Faxai begins with the 13/0600 UTC warning. In their Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, JTWC renumbered Faxai as TC-33W. The system remained in the general vicinity of Kosrae for several days. The operational track coordinates describe a slow eastward motion, followed by a westward motion, back and forth, near the 5th parallel. Likely some of this apparent erratic motion was due to the center's being broad, ill-defined and difficult to locate. The MSW remained at 25 kts on 13 December, but JTWC upped it to 30 kts at 14/0600 UTC based on CI estimates of 30 and 35 kts and the possible development of a banding feature over the western quadrant. During the 14th the depression remained quasi-stationary roughly 50 nm west of Kosrae. The system was drifting in a weak steering regime between subtropical northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies. B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ JTWC upgraded the depression to a 35-kt tropical storm at 15/0000 UTC, still located a little over 50 nm west-southwest of Kosrae. This was based on CI estimates of 35 kts. The system did not strengthen, however. Animated satellite imagery and a 15/0950 UTC SSM/I image showed that deep convection near the center remained unorganized and sheared. The cyclone remained in the same general area through 16 December without any increase in intensity, although CI numbers began to inch upward as the system's organization very slowly improved. JMA upgraded the depression to tropical storm status at 1800 UTC, assigning the name Faxai. A very slow generally west-northwestward drift had brought Faxai to a point approximately 175 nm east-southeast of Pohnpei by 1800 UTC on 17 December. The storm's organization had improved and CI estimates had reached 55 kts, which was the 1800 UTC warning intensity from JTWC. Early on the 18th animated satellite imagery depicted a compact system with extensive deep convection south of the LLCC associated with con- vergent flow. A 17/2204 UTC SSM/I pass had indicated the early stages of eyewall development. Faxai, however, did not strengthen any further, its MSW remaining pegged at 55 kts through 19/0000 UTC. The cyclone had been quasi-stationary early on the 18th, but by 1200 UTC it was drifting eastward and at 1800 UTC was located approximately 60 nm west-northwest of Kosrae. The easterlies associated with a narrow subtropical ridge and the equatorial westerlies were still playing a game of tug-of-war with Tropical Storm Faxai caught in the middle. Throughout 19 December the storm remained quasi-stationary once more approximately 60-70 nm northwest of Kosrae. Satellite intensity estimates were 65 kts at 19/0000 UTC, so JTWC upped the MSW to 60 kts at that time. However, a weakening trend began during the day as shear increased over the cyclone. A 19/1037 UTC SSM/I pass depicted a partially-exposed LLCC with associated deep convection decoupled to the west. Tropical easterlies near 900 m were in excess of 35 kts just upstream from the vortex. This, combined with an increase in the upper-level easterlies over the system, had created a shear environ- ment. The JTWC warning at 1800 UTC lowered the MSW to 50 kts, but noted that while CI estimates from all agencies were still 55 kts, synoptic wind and pressure data indicated that even 50 kts might be too high. A rather pronounced northwestward motion commenced early on the 20th as Faxai came under the steering influence of a mid to upper-level HIGH anchored over the Western Pacific. By 20/1800 UTC the storm had reached a point about 115 nm north-northeast of Pohnpei. The JTWC warning issued at 20/0000 UTC was very informative and interesting: "Inner-core convection continues to fluctuate with a general weakening trend indicated, while the outer band of convection has increased and become better defined. Due to the vertical shear and the increasing convection well to the south and southeast of the LLCC, the inner-core wind field has expanded and surface pressures have risen. Wind and pressure analyses from the eastern Caroline Islands suggest that Faxai may even be weaker (35-40 kts) than what is currently indicated in the official JTWC forecast. However, the intensity was kept slightly higher at 45 kts due to the intermittent deep convective bursts that have been developing over the LLCC." By 0600 UTC, however, Faxai had begun to strengthen again. The MSW was upped to 55 kts based on CI estimates of 55 kts, and animated satellite imagery depicted a recent burst of deep convection over the vortex center. By 1800 UTC, intensity estimates from JTWC and AFGWC had reached Dvorak T4.0--65 kts. Based on this and the appearance of an intermittent warm spot in satellite imagery, JTWC upgraded Faxai to a 65-kt typhoon. JMA upgraded the storm to typhoon status six hours later and NMCC followed suit at 21/0600 UTC. Typhoon Faxai tracked steadily west-northwestward to northwestward on the 21st, reaching a point approximately 650 nm southeast of the Marianas Islands by 1800 UTC. The cyclone intensified rapidly during the day with winds increasing from 75 kts at 0000 UTC to 120 kts at 1800 UTC (per JTWC's warnings). Satellite CI estimates had reached 127 kts (T6.5) by 1800 UTC, but the MSW was held down a little to allow the wind field to "catch up" with the observed satellite signatures. The upper-level ridge north of the typhoon had weakened slightly, resulting in a poleward outflow channel favorable for development. The 1800 UTC warning noted that Faxai's eye was 12 nm in diameter. Typhon Faxai continued to rapidly deepen, and at 22/0000 UTC the MSW was upped to 135 kts, making the storm the year's third super typhoon. The forecast track at this time still carried Faxai through the central or northern Marianas Islands by 48 hours, thus posing a very serious Christmastime threat to the islands. A very favorable upper-level outflow pattern led to yet further strengthening of the system. Winds were increased to 140 kts at 0600 UTC, and the 1200 UTC warning noted that recent SSM/I passes indicated that the primary banding feature had become even stronger and better defined. JTWC raised the MSW to 150 kts at 1800 UTC, based on CI estimates of 140 to 155 kts, when the cyclone was centered approximately 340 nm east- southeast of Saipan. Super Typhoon Faxai reached its peak intensity at 0000 UTC on 23 December when it was located about 240 nm east of Saipan. The peak intensity values assigned by JTWC, JMA and NMCC were 155 kts, 105 kts and 130 kts, respectively, but all agreed that the storm was at its peak around 23/0000 UTC. JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW estimate of 155 kts was based on CI estimates of 155 kts (T7.0). Visible and infrared satellite imagery depicted concentric eyewalls with an 8-nm round inner eye. A SSM/I pass at 22/2236 UTC depicted a tightly-wrapped primary band and weakening inner eyewall convection. Gales extended outward from the center 160 nm to the northeast and northwest and 110 nm in the southern quadrants while the radii of 50-kt winds were 65 nm to the north and 45 nm to the south. The storm did not remain at its peak for very long--by 0600 UTC the small, irregular eye had become cloud-filled and the winds had started to come down. A 23/1122 UTC SSM/I pass revealed that the small convective eye seen earlier had been replaced by a ragged banding eye feature. Also, deep convection had begun to erode over the southeast quadrant. By 23/1800 UTC Faxai's center had reached a point roughly 150 nm northeast of Saipan, still moving northwestward. Satellite CI estimates had dropped to 102 kts and 127 kts, so the MSW was lowered to 125 kts--below the threshold of super typhoon intensity. Animated water vapor imagery indicated some dry air entrainment on the western side of the storm and transverse banding to the north associated with a strong mid-latitude jet. Christmas Eve day saw Typhoon Faxai recurve a scant 35 nm east of the island of Agrihan in the Marianas while it steadily weakened. The MSW was lowered to 115 kts at 24/0000 UTC and had dropped to 95 kts by 1800 UTC. Early in the day a slight increase in deep convection was noted, but this proved to be temporary. By 1800 UTC Faxai was located about 190 nm north-northeast of Agrihan and was moving toward the north-northeast at 17 kts. The storm had by this time begun to show signs of extratropical transition. By 0000 UTC on 25 December visible satellite imagery showed a significant decrease of deep clouds and bands over the western quadrant. The MSW was lowered to 85 kts and continued to decrease throughout the day. At 1800 UTC JTWC declared Faxai to be extratropical about 1300 nm west of Midway Island and issued their final warning. The MSW was estimated at 65 kts and the storm was racing east-northeastward at 42 kts. The final reference to Faxai's remnants in JMA's High Seas Bulletins placed the 35-kt gale center about 650 nm west-northwest of Midway Island at 1200 UTC on 26 December. C. Comparisons Between JTWC and Other Centers --------------------------------------------- Intensity estimates between JTWC, JMA and NMCC were in fairly good agreement during Faxai's long pre-typhoon stage and during its rather rapid decline. NMCC's estimated peak 10-min avg MSW of 130 kts compares rather well with JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW of 155 kts. JMA's peak as usual was much lower, being 105 kts. Even though NMCC's peak intensity compares well with JTWC's, in general their estimates during Faxai's most intense phase just prior to and following its peak MSW at 23/0000 UTC tend to be lower, though somewhat higher than JMA's estimates. Faxai remained completely outside the AORs of Hong Kong, the Philippines, and Taiwan. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Super Typhoon Faxai have been received. Typhoon Vamei (TC-32W / TS 0126) 26 - 31 December --------------------------------- Vamei: contributed by Macau, is the laughing thrush--a kind of songbird with white feathers around its eyes and which is popular with all feeders in Macau A. Storm Origins ---------------- An area of convection had developed by 0600 UTC on 25 December approximately 200 nm east of Singapore. Animated visible imagery depicted scattered deep convection associated with a weak LLCC while a 200-mb analysis indicated that the disturbance was located in a region of weak vertical shear. The Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) on JTWC's website states that synoptic data and a 850-mb post- analysis indicated that the system was spawned by a buffer zone over the equator. By 26/0600 UTC the disturbance was located about 130 nm east of Singapore. Animated visible imagery depicted scattered deep convection in convergent flow west of the weak LLCC. Some synoptic data indicated that the circulation might have weakened and moved equatorward. The system remained in a region of diffluent flow associated with an upper-level trough. JTWC upgraded the development potential to fair at 26/1300 UTC with the system located about 120 nm east of Singapore. Convection near the weak LLCC had become more persistent and synoptic data indicated that the monsoonal northeasterlies had weakened during the previous 12 hours. B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ The incipient disturbance began to intensify rapidly late on the 26th. JTWC issued their first warning on the system at 27/0000 UTC, upgrading it directly to a 45-kt tropical storm located approximately 75 nm east-northeast of Singapore. The warning intensity was based on CI estimates of 35 kts, a synoptic report of 40 kts, and a QuikScat pass at 26/2255 UTC. A 27/0030 UTC TRMM image indicated that the system had intensified rapidly with a 21-nm eye evident in the 85 GHz microwave band. (In their official storm report, JTWC has retroactively classified Vamei as a tropical storm at 26/1800 UTC and as a tropical depression at 26/1200 UTC.) By 27/0600 UTC the cyclone was located about 35 nm northeast of Singapore, moving westward at 7 kts. JMA upgraded the system to a 40-kt tropical storm, assigning the name Vamei. JTWC, however, upgraded the storm to a typhoon with MSW of 75 kts (1-min avg). This was based on an observation of 75 kts from a U. S. naval ship located within the eyewall. A SSM/I pass at 27/0220 UTC depicted an eye approximately 15 nm in diameter with associated deep convection and strong winds over the southern semicircle. Another ship reported wind gusts to 105 kts within the southern portion of the eyewall. Vamei was a fairly small, compact typhoon with 50-kt winds confined to a radius of 35 nm in the northeastern quadrant and 25 nm elsewhere. Gales covered an area 150 nm in diameter. A visible satellite image taken at 27/0530 UTC clearly shows feeder bands from south of the equator wrapping into the cyclone. Vamei reached tropical storm and typhoon intensity at latitude 1.5N--only 90 nm from the equator. The system appeared to break all the physical rules in relation to its genesis: a very small Coriolis parameter, if any, and large pressure gradients, all supporting the impossibility of a typhoon-strength system in such close proximity to the equator. The preceding statement was taken from JTWC's Prognostic Reasoning message issued at 27/1500 UTC, and the author goes on to speculate that the winds within the small, intense eyewall were likely cyclostrophic in nature. Vamei has certainly set a new record for extremely low-latitude tropical cyclogenesis, breaking the previous record held by Typhoon Sarah in March, 1956. Typhoon Vamei made landfall in southeastern Malaysia about 30 nm northeast of Singapore around 27/0830 UTC. By 1200 UTC the small storm was inland about 20 nm north of Singapore and weakening rapidly. The MSW was estimated at 45 kts based on CI estimates of 40 and 55 kts. Also, a ship located over the Strait of Malacca had reported sustained winds to 45 kts at 1200 UTC. The weakening cyclone continued west- ward and by 28/0000 UTC was located over the large island of Sumatra. JTWC and JMA both downgraded Vamei to a 30-kt tropical depression at 0000 UTC. A satellite CI estimate of 40 kts was received at 0600 UTC, but the official MSW remained at 30 kts since the system was located over land. It appeared that upper-level diffluence over the region had contributed to the persistence of deep convection over the vortex center. JTWC issued their final warning on the depression at 1200 UTC with the center still located over Sumatra. A STWO issued by JTWC at 29/1800 UTC noted that the area of convection associated with the remnants of Vamei had tracked off the northwest coast of Sumatra into the extreme southern Bay of Bengal. Animated visible imagery indicated that the LLCC had survived the trek over land and new deep convection was forming near the center. An upper-air analysis indicated that the area was located in a region of weak to moderate vertical shear with favorable outflow aloft, so the development potential was rated as fair. By 1800 UTC on 30 December the LOW was located approximately 260 nm west of Sumatra and had become better organized with a possible banding feature north of the center. A recent TRMM pass had revealed low-level banding indicative of at least a 25-kt system. The first warning on Tropical Cyclone 05B was issued at 1800 UTC with the MSW estimated at 30 kts. The system was moving west-northwestward at 11 kts underneath an upper-level ridge axis. By 31/0600 UTC, TC-05B was located approximately 560 nm east of southern Sri Lanka, moving west at 5 kts. Animated satellite imagery indicated an overall improvement in cloud band organization with good outflow, and with CI estimates of 30 and 35 kts, the MSW was upped to minimal tropical storm intensity of 35 kts. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north-northeast of the cyclone was providing the steering for the westerly course. At 31/1800 UTC, however, the system appeared weaker with a fully-exposed, weak LLCC displaced well to the southwest of the associated convection. Shortly after the initial 1800 UTC warning was released, an amended warning was issued, relocating the center to a position approximately 150 nm southeast of the initial warning location. The MSW was lowered to 30 kts, and with moderate to strong upper-level southwesterlies overlying the region, the system was forecast to track westward and dissipate by the end of the fore- cast period. The amended 1800 UTC warning was the final one from JTWC. (Note: Since the cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal was determined in post-analysis to have been a re-intensification of the same low-level circulation which had formerly been Typhoon Vamei, this phase of the cyclone's history is now considered to be a continuation of Tropical Cyclone 32W and its designation as TC-05B has been struck from JTWC's records.) C. Comparisons Between JTWC and Other Centers --------------------------------------------- A major discrepancy exists between JTWC and JMA regarding the peak intensity of Vamei. The peak 10-min avg MSW assigned to the storm by JMA was 40 kts, which corresponds to a Dvorak CI number of T3.0. (This was the highest CI number assigned to Vamei that I am aware of.) Furthermore, Huang Chunliang passed along a couple of warnings, one issued at 27/0300 UTC by the Meteorological Service of Singapore and the other issued at 27/0000 UTC by the Malaysian Meteorological Service, in which the system was referred to as a tropical depression. Clearly the basis for JTWC's classification of the system as a typhoon were the ship reports received by that agency which were not available in real time to the other warning centers. Microwave imagery did reveal the presence of an eye, but as there is not yet a validated intensity classification scheme for microwave imagery analogous to the Dvorak scale for visible and infrared imagery, many forecasters are reluctant to use it for estimating tropical cyclone intensity. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ The author has learned of no damage or casualties resulting from this small, fascinating, unique typhoon. *********************************************************************** NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for December: 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity ** ** - System was redevelopment of NWP Typhoon Vamei North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for December ------------------------------------------------- The only tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean basin during December was a weak tropical storm which was a re-intensification of former Typhoon Vamei (32W). The Bay of Bengal system operationally was numbered Tropical Cyclone 05B, but in post-storm analysis it was decided to remove that designation and treat it as a continuation of Vamei. The complete history of Vamei is covered above in the Northwest Pacific portion of this summary. *********************************************************************** SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for December: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for December: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for December: No tropical cyclones *********************************************************************** SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for December: 1 tropical depression 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity 1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity Most of the information presented below was taken from operational warnings and advisories issued by the Fiji TCWC at Nadi. References to sustained winds should be understood as being based on a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Warnings issued by JTWC/NPMOC in Hawaii were the source of the 1-minute average MSW values given in the accompanying cyclone tracks file and were occasionally used for comparison purposes. The reports on Tropical Cyclones Vicky and Waka were written by Alipate Waqaicelua, Chief Forecaster at the Nadi TCWC, with some additional information added by myself. A very special thanks to Alipate for preparing and sending the reports to me (as well as the tracks for the cyclones.) South Pacific Tropical Activity for December -------------------------------------------- As the month of December opened, weak Tropical Cyclone Trina was still on the charts near Rarotonga. Three tropical depressions developed during the month with two receiving names as tropical cyclones. Tropical Depression 02F developed on 8 December just east of Fiji and east of the Dateline. The weak system subsequently drifted westward to near Fiji, then southward. By 1800 UTC on the 10th it had become basically cold-cored. It was last mentioned by Nadi in a Tropical Disturbance Summary on 15 December. The next depression, TD-03F, developed on 19 December but remained quite weak for well over a week. In the meantime, Tropical Depression 04F formed and briefly became Tropical Cyclone Vicky northwest of Tahiti. After Vicky's demise, TD-03F began to show signs of life again around 26 December and became Tropical Cyclone Waka on the 29th. Waka developed rapidly into a rather severe tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity and became the most destructive cyclone to strike the Kingdom of Tonga in 20 years. Tropical Cyclone Vicky (TD-04F) 22 - 26 December -------------------------------- Tropical Cyclone Vicky was a short-lived system, with only 18 hours at tropical cyclone status. It was relatively small and sheared for most of its life. Tropical Depression 04F was first identified around 22 December while located between the Northern and Southern Cooks, as a slow-moving eddy along the active SPCZ. The disturbance had been subjected to strong southerly shear since its inception which had removed any deep convection to the north, but at the same time enhancing the prevailing, unstable monsoonal flow in the northeast quadrant. By 22/1800 UTC persistent strong convection to the north had induced at least 10-min avg winds to 30 kts generally to the north of a developing circulation (as supported by QuikScat data.) At 1800 UTC the disturbance was upgraded to Tropical Depression 04F. RSMC Nadi then issued its first international marine warning on TD-04F while it was a slow-moving system approximately 500 nm north-northeast of Rarotonga or 500 nm northwest of Tahiti. Subsequent warnings mentioned winds increasing to gale force in an area slightly off the LLCC in the northeast quadrant. By 24/0000 UTC convection was gradually increasing and cooling about the LLCC, prompting Nadi to issue the first Tropical Disturbance Advisory on the system, which was showing good potential of becoming a tropical cyclone within 24 hours. With SSTs of around 28 C, lessening vertical shear and deep convection erupting over the LLCC (per SSM/I imagery) as well as along the feeder band to the north, TD-04F was then named Tropical Cyclone Vicky with 35-kt winds. However, soon after Vicky was named, strong shear set in again, arresting any further development. Low-level vorticity also decreased markedly. Vicky was then slow-moving but expected to drift southward. At 25/0000 UTC the minimal cyclone was downgraded to a tropical depression while located about 360 nm north-northeast of Rarotonga or 450 nm west-northwest of Tahiti and drifting southward at 5 kts. Further gale warnings were issued on TD-04F (formerly Vicky) until 26/1200 UTC for an area of gales in the northeast quadrant, well away from the centre. No damages were incurred by Tropical Cyclone Vicky, which spent most of its life in open seas away from any inhabited island. NPMOC did not issue any warnings on Vicky, although a couple of TCFA's were issued for the system, the first at 24/0000 UTC and the second at 25/0000 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Waka (TC-07P / TD-03F) 19 December - 5 January ---------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- Tropical Cyclone Waka was the third tropical cyclone of the 2001- 2002 South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season. The cyclone formed to the northeast of Wallis Island and initially followed a southwest track, passing close to Wallis before recurving southeastward, passing over Niuafo'ou and later Vava'u in the Kingdom of Tonga. Waka was a relatively intense and well-behaved tropical cyclone with a peak intensity of about 95 kts (10-minute average). A tropical depression (TD-03F) was first identified, embedded in an active monsoon trough just south of the Solomons Group, or about 300 nm northeast of Espiritu Santo in Vanuatu, around December 18/2100 UTC. It steadily moved southeastward over Fiji, aided by a persistent north- west steering, before turning northeastward on the 23rd to eventually become slow-moving about 100 nm to the northeast of Wallis on the 28th. From 20/1200 until 22/0600 UTC, RSMC Nadi issued international marine warnings on TD-03F for an area of gales slightly away from the centre, towards the northeast. These were resumed at 26/2136 UTC when it was evident that overall development was steadily occurring. The first Tropical Disturbance Advisory on this system was issued around 27/0230 UTC, forecasting a moderate to high potential for attaining tropical cyclone status within the next 24 to 48 hours. SSTs were 30 C, shear was steadily decreasing, and low-level vorticity was persistent. Effectively, TD-03F's environment favourably supported further develop- ment, which was considered very likely to be rapid. At 29/0500 UTC TD-03F was named Tropical Cyclone Waka with winds of gale intensity, located about 140 nm to the northeast of Wallis Island. B. Track and Intensity History ------------------------------ A noticeable feature on the CIMSS website was that the shear was steadily decreasing, especially in the region immediately to the south of the cyclone. (This region of shear minima was depicted as moving with Waka as it accelerated further southward). As a consequence, Waka intensified rapidly as it started moving southwestward, reaching storm intensity around 29/1200 UTC. By this time a mid-level ridge to the southeast of the cyclone was getting established and intensifying. As anticipated, the steering field also turned northerly, thus nudging Waka southward to pass very close to Wallis Island as it accelerated slightly. Turning farther toward the south-southeast, the cyclone passed over Niuafo'ou around 30/2100 UTC, reaching hurricane intensity three hours later, at 31/0000 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Waka steadily intensified as it assumed a south- easterly track, accelerating further under strengthening steering which was enhanced by an approaching upper-level trough from the west. The cyclone passed over Vava'u around 31/1200 UTC and maintained a steady southeasterly track, passing about 200 nm to the southwest of Niue at 31/1800 UTC at its peak intensity of 95 kts (10-min avg). Primary responsibility for warnings on Waka was handed over to RSMC Wellington, New Zealand, after January 01/0900 UTC as the cyclone was expected to enter their area of warning responsibility by 01/1200 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Waka entered the Wellington AOR, still at hurricane intensity, at 01/1200 UTC at a point about 550 nm west-southwest of Rarotonga. The system, however, was beginning to weaken rapidly, and was downgraded to storm intensity on the second Wellington warning. Waka was classified as an extratropical storm at 02/0500 UTC when located approximately 700 nm southwest of Rarotonga. The former tropical cyclone continued to trek south-southeastward over the next two or three days and was still kicking up gale-force winds on the 5th far to the south of the Cook Islands. C. Comparsions Between Fiji and NPMOC ------------------------------------- Intensity estimates for Tropical Cyclone Waka between Fiji and NPMOC compared rather well. Actually, Nadi's estimated peak 10-min avg MSW of 95 kts corresponds to a 1-min avg MSW of 105 kts, whereas the peak intensity estimated by NPMOC was 100 kts. This is good agreement, but more often than not, other TCWC's intensities are lower than JTWC/NPMOC's for intense storms. NPMOC's MSW estimates also tended to run a little lower than Fiji's during Waka's decaying phase. D. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ As the center of Waka was approaching Wallis Island at 2300 UTC on 29 December, a radio report from New Caledonia indicated that wind gusts had reached 68 kts and waves were 7 metres high. Conditions were worsening as the center of the cyclone approached. (This infor- mation from Patrick Hoareau--a special thanks to Patrick for sending it along.) Steve Ready of the New Zealand Meteorological Service has sent me some wind and pressure observations from the islands of Tonga. (A special thanks to Steve for sending me this information.) Station Name (ID) Dir/Max 10-min Avg/Time Max Gust Min Press (degrees - kts - UTC) (kts) (hPa) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Niuafo'ou (91772) 080 / 90 kts / 301600 100 964.0 Keppel (91776) 080 / 70 kts / 301700 90 994.7 Vava'u (91779) 220 / 75 kts / 311500 120 960.0 Ha'apai (91784) 170 / 32 kts / 311500 66 979.0 Tongatapu (91792) 130 / 30 kts / 311600 45 999.1 (Note: Steve indicates that the maximum 10-min sustained wind values from Niuafo'ou and Keppel are likely too high but that the peak gusts are correct.) Some press reports indicated that wind gusts to 135 kts were experienced in parts of Tonga, but this is likely an estimate. E. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Damage was minimal in the Wallis and Futuna Group, according to preliminary reports received from Wallis Island. One house was destroyed on Wallis, but about 50% of the banana plantations were destroyed. Villages along the western coast of Niue experienced sea spray to 100 metres inland. The Niue Meteorological Service has confirmed that the highest surge was 8 metres. Felled and uprooted coconut and other trees blocked roads. A fallen tree snapped power lines to the Telecoms transmitting station, airport area and part of Alofi South, leaving these areas without power for approximately six hours. It was the Kingdom of Tonga, however, which felt the wrath of Waka most fully. The cyclone was the most destructive to visit Tonga since Tropical Cyclone Isaac in March, 1982, and ranks alongside that storm and Tropical Cyclone Flora in March, 1961, in its destruc- tive effects. Vava'u was the worst hit of the Tonga island groups. Over 90% of crops were destroyed, including commercial crops such as vanilla and kava, and essential food crops such as taro, yam, banana, mango, coconut and breadfruit. A major food shortage was expected with press reports indicating the likelihood that the islands would be dependent upon food aid for a period of six months. Schools, dwelling houses and other buildings were heavily damaged. In the Vava'u group about 320 homes were severely damaged or destroyed and 300-400 more partially damaged. Jetties were damaged and many small boats sunk. Electricity and communications were also disrupted due to fallen power poles and electric lines. Water supply systems became inoperable since they depend upon electric pumps. Fortunately, no deaths were reported in the Vava'u group. The only death known to have resulted from Tropical Cyclone Waka occurred in the Ha'apai group, located to the south of Vava'u. A 38-year old woman died, likely from a heart attack, in transit to a hospital when the route became blocked with fallen trees. Ha'apai also experienced significant damage from the cyclone. The islands of Niuatoputapu and Niuafo'ou suffered relatively light structural damage, but most crops were destroyed on those islands also, leaving the populace with only about 10 days food supply. The total monetary damage estimate in Tonga was 104.2 million Tongan pa'anga, equivalent to $51.3 million U. S. dollars. About 67% of the damage was to homes and other buildings, and approximately 19% of the total losses were agricultural. More information on the effects of Tropical Cyclone Waka can be found at the following website: . *********************************************************************** EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. *********************************************************************** AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved in the following manner: (a) FTP to: hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206] (b) Login as: anonymous (c) For a password use your e-mail address (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data) (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii) (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name ) (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using December as an example: dec01.tracks) (g) To exit FTP, type: quit Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries, they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD. The summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature: dec01.sum, for example. Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael Pitt, and Rich Henning): OR NOTE: The URL for Michael V. Padua's Typhoon 2000 website has changed. Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2001 (2000-2001 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: A special thanks to Michael Bath of Wollongbar, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. Prepared by: Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays) *********************************************************************** *********************************************************************** >> 05-24-02 / Typhoon2000.com / Typhoon2000.ph