GARY PADGETT'S GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - FEBRUARY 2004 !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!! ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor- ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized. The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com- pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). A very special thanks to Michael for the assistance he so reliably provides. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Storm (01W / AMBO) 11 - 16 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 01W Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: AMBO JMA Tropical Storm Number: None Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 04 FEB 11 1800 10.7 N 144.2 E 1006 25 25 04 FEB 12 0000 11.2 N 142.4 E 1008 25 30 04 FEB 12 0600 12.0 N 141.1 E 1004 35 30 JMA: 11.1 N, 141.0 E 04 FEB 12 1200 12.6 N 140.6 E 1004 30 30 JMA: 11.9 N, 140.2 E 04 FEB 12 1800 13.0 N 138.9 E 1004 30 30 JMA: 12.1 N, 138.3 E 04 FEB 13 0000 12.5 N 137.4 E 1004 30 30 04 FEB 13 0600 12.6 N 136.7 E 1004 30 30 04 FEB 13 1200 13.2 N 135.9 E 1004 30 30 04 FEB 13 1800 14.2 N 135.4 E 1004 40 30 04 FEB 14 0000 14.7 N 135.2 E 1004 40 30 04 FEB 14 0600 15.3 N 135.4 E 1000 45 30 JMA: 13.5 N, 135.2 E 04 FEB 14 1200 15.8 N 135.9 E 1004 45 30 JMA: 14.6 N, 135.1 E 04 FEB 14 1800 14.9 N 136.2 E 1002 30 30 JMA: 14.8 N, 135.1 E 04 FEB 15 0000 14.7 N 136.6 E 1006 30 30 04 FEB 15 0600 14.8 N 137.0 E 1004 30 30 04 FEB 15 1200 14.5 N 137.1 E 1004 30 25 04 FEB 15 1800 14.5 N 136.6 E 1004 30 25 04 FEB 16 0000 13.0 N 136.0 E 1006 30 25 04 FEB 16 0600 11.7 N 135.5 E 1004 25 25 Note: This system moved just inside the eastern boundary of PAGASA's AOR for about a 24-hour period on 13-14 February, receiving the name Ambo. Only four warnings were issued by PAGASA, each estimating the MSW (10-min avg) at 30 kts. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - Longitude 90E to 135E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the Australian centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical LOW 08 - 12 Feb Severe Tropical Cyclone MONTY (14S) 26 Feb - 02 Mar ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: AUW (All warnings issued by the Perth TCWC) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 04 FEB 08 0700 16.5 S 124.0 E 998 25 Overland 04 FEB 08 1000 16.5 S 124.0 E 998 25 04 FEB 08 1600 16.5 S 124.0 E 998 25 04 FEB 08 2200 16.0 S 124.0 E 997 25 04 FEB 09 0400 15.4 S 123.0 E 997 25 Over water 04 FEB 09 1000 15.6 S 122.1 E 997 30 04 FEB 09 1600 15.5 S 122.0 E 997 30 04 FEB 09 2200 16.0 S 121.8 E 996 30 04 FEB 10 0400 16.0 S 121.0 E 996 30 04 FEB 10 1000 16.3 S 120.4 E 996 30 04 FEB 10 1600 16.2 S 120.1 E 996 30 04 FEB 10 2200 16.8 S 120.5 E 994 30 04 FEB 11 0400 17.3 S 120.6 E 994 30 04 FEB 11 1000 17.7 S 120.4 E 994 30 04 FEB 11 1600 18.2 S 120.3 E 995 30 04 FEB 11 2200 18.9 S 120.2 E 995 30 04 FEB 12 0000 20.0 S 120.0 E 995 30 Moving inland Note: No warnings were issued by JTWC on this system. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: MONTY Cyclone Number: 14S Basin: AUW (Storm named by the Perth, Western Australia, TCWC) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 04 FEB 26 0400 18.0 S 123.5 E 1003 25 04 FEB 27 0100 18.5 S 120.5 E 999 30 04 FEB 27 0400 18.7 S 120.2 E 997 30 30 JTWC-06Z: 19.4S, 119.9E 04 FEB 27 1000 19.1 S 119.8 E 995 45 04 FEB 27 1600 19.1 S 119.3 E 995 50 45 JTWC-18Z: 19.3S, 118.6E 04 FEB 27 1900 19.2 S 119.0 E 990 45 04 FEB 27 2200 19.3 S 118.8 E 985 50 04 FEB 28 0400 19.3 S 118.0 E 970 65 55 04 FEB 28 1000 19.1 S 117.4 E 955 70 70 04 FEB 28 1600 18.9 S 117.0 E 955 75 70 04 FEB 28 2200 19.1 S 116.6 E 955 85 70 04 FEB 29 0400 19.4 S 116.0 E 950 105 80 04 FEB 29 1000 19.8 S 115.6 E 935 110 95 04 FEB 29 1600 20.1 S 115.2 E 935 105 95 04 FEB 29 2200 20.2 S 115.2 E 935 105 90 04 MAR 01 0500 20.6 S 115.4 E 945 105 85 04 MAR 01 1000 21.0 S 115.6 E 950 95 85 04 MAR 01 1600 21.2 S 116.0 E 955 75 80 JTWC-18Z: 21.7S, 115.8E 04 MAR 01 2200 21.6 S 116.1 E 960 65 70 Inland 04 MAR 02 0300 21.9 S 116.2 E 970 60 04 MAR 02 0700 22.8 S 116.7 E 980 50 04 MAR 02 1300 23.5 S 117.2 E 985 45 04 MAR 02 1900 24.2 S 118.0 E 995 30 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - Longitude 135E to 160E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Darwin, Northern Territory; Brisbane, Queensland; and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the Australian centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone FRITZ (12P) 08 - 12 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: FRITZ Cyclone Number: 12P Basin: AUE (System named by the Brisbane, Queensland, TCWC) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 04 FEB 08 1800 9.0 S 154.0 E 1003 25 04 FEB 09 0000 8.0 S 154.0 E 1000 30 04 FEB 09 0600 8.5 S 153.5 E 1000 30 04 FEB 09 1200 9.0 S 153.5 E 1002 30 04 FEB 09 1800 10.0 S 153.0 E 1003 30 04 FEB 10 0000 11.0 S 153.0 E 25 Weakening 04 FEB 10 0600 13.7 S 147.3 E 30 New LOW 04 FEB 10 0900 14.0 S 146.6 E 998 40 Named TC Fritz 04 FEB 10 1200 13.9 S 145.8 E 995 40 04 FEB 10 1800 14.4 S 144.4 E 995 30 40 JTWC TCFA at 1700 UTC 04 FEB 11 0000 14.9 S 143.6 E 1000 30 Inland 04 FEB 11 0600 16.0 S 142.9 E 998 30 04 FEB 11 1200 16.4 S 141.3 E 998 30 04 FEB 11 1800 16.5 S 140.5 E 995 40 Over water 04 FEB 12 0000 16.8 S 139.6 E 985 35 45 04 FEB 12 0700 16.5 S 138.9 E 990 40 04 FEB 12 1300 16.7 S 138.7 E 992 25 40 04 FEB 12 1600 17.4 S 137.7 E 995 30 Inland ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji, and Wellington, New Zealand. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the Southern Hemisphere centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone IVY (05F / 13P) 21 - 29 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: IVY Cyclone Number: 13P Basin: SPA Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 05F Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 04 FEB 21 2100 16.5 S 173.5 E 1002 25 04 FEB 22 0600 16.0 S 174.3 E 1002 25 04 FEB 22 1800 15.3 S 173.0 E 999 35 30 JTWC: 15.9 S, 173.7 E 04 FEB 23 0000 15.2 S 173.0 E 999 30 04 FEB 23 0300 15.0 S 172.5 E 995 35 Upgraded to TC Ivy 04 FEB 23 0600 15.0 S 172.0 E 995 45 35 04 FEB 23 1200 14.9 S 170.7 E 987 45 04 FEB 23 1800 13.8 S 170.3 E 975 70 60 04 FEB 24 0000 13.5 S 169.7 E 975 60 04 FEB 24 0600 13.4 S 168.9 E 975 75 60 04 FEB 24 1200 14.3 S 168.9 E 970 65 04 FEB 24 1800 14.6 S 168.6 E 970 85 65 04 FEB 25 0000 14.7 S 168.0 E 960 75 04 FEB 25 0600 15.7 S 167.7 E 955 90 80 Near Aurora I., Vanuatu 04 FEB 25 1200 16.1 S 167.6 E 955 80 Near Ambrin I., Vanuatu 04 FEB 25 1800 16.3 S 167.9 E 940 110 90 04 FEB 26 0000 17.2 S 168.1 E 935 90 Near Epi I., Vanuatu 04 FEB 26 0600 17.7 S 168.3 E 940 100 90 Very near Port Vila 04 FEB 26 1200 18.5 S 168.6 E 940 90 Near Erromango I. 04 FEB 26 1800 19.3 S 168.8 E 940 100 90 Near Tanna I. 04 FEB 27 0000 20.2 S 169.1 E 940 90 Near Aneityum I. 04 FEB 27 0600 21.5 S 169.4 E 940 100 90 04 FEB 27 1200 22.7 S 169.9 E 940 90 04 FEB 27 1800 24.5 S 170.7 E 945 100 85 04 FEB 28 0000 26.2 S 171.5 E 950 80 Wellington warnings 04 FEB 28 0600 28.6 S 172.7 E 955 85 80 04 FEB 28 1100 31.0 S 174.0 E 972 65 Extratropical 04 FEB 28 1700 34.0 S 176.0 E 972 55 60 JTWC: 34.4 S, 176.9 E 04 FEB 28 2300 37.0 S 178.0 E 976 60 04 FEB 29 0500 40.0 S 179.0 W 976 45 55 JTWC: 40.3 S, 178.5 W 04 FEB 29 1100 43.0 S 176.0 W 976 55 04 FEB 29 1700 47.0 S 174.0 W 979 50 04 FEB 29 2300 49.0 S 172.0 W 979 50 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* !!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!! To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/ advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and analysts at the several warning centers. For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere: SPECIAL NOTE: Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following websites: PREPARED BY: Gary Padgett garyp@alaweb.com SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY: Michael V. Padua michaelpadua@hotmail.com webmaster@typhoon2000.ph ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Published: 03.22.04 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com