GARY PADGETT'S MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY JANUARY, 2005 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) ************************************************************************* JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS --> First Northwest Pacific tropical storm of year forms --> Unusual Bay of Bengal tropical storm develops --> Southwest Indian active--two storms strike Madagascar --> Long-lived Coral Sea cyclone affects Vanuatu --> Several minor, short-lived cyclones in Southeast Indian Ocean ************************************************************************* ***** Feature of the Month for January ***** TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN Beginning in 2000 tropical storms and typhoons forming in the North Pacific west of the Dateline are assigned names by JMA taken from a new list of Asian names contributed by fourteen nations and territories from the western Pacific and eastern Asia. Names are not allocated in alphabetical order and the majority are not personal names--instead names of animals, plants, fictional characters, descriptive adjectives, places--even foods--are utilized. The entire list consists of 140 names and all names will be used before any are repeated. The last name assigned in 2004 was Noru in late December while two tropical cyclones, Kulap and Roke, have already been named in 2005. The next 36 names on the list are (** indicates name has already been assigned in 2005): Kulap ** Sanvu Longwang Kaemi Roke ** Mawar Kirogi Prapiroon Sonca Guchol Kai-tak Maria Nesat Talim Tembin Saomai Haitang Nabi Bolaven Bopha Nalgae Khanun Chanchu Wukong Banyan Vicente Jelawat Sonamu Washi Saola Ewiniar Shanshan Matsa Damrey Bilis Yagi Since 1963 PAGASA has independently named tropical cyclones forming in the Philippines' AOR--from 115E to 135E and from 5N to 25N (except for a portion of the northwestern corner of the above region). Even though the Philippines contributed ten names to the international list of typhoon names, PAGASA still continues to assign their own names for local use within the Philippines. It is felt that familiar names are more easily remembered in the rural areas and that having a PAGASA- assigned name helps to underscore the fact that the cyclone is within PAGASA's AOR and potentially a threat to the Philippines. Another consideration may be PAGASA's desire to assign a name when a system is first classified as a tropical depression. Since tropical and/or monsoon depressions can bring very heavy rainfall to the nation which often results in disastrous flooding, the weather service feels that assigning a name helps to enhance public attention given to a system. Beginning with 2001 PAGASA began using new sets of cyclone names. These do not all end in "ng" as did the older names. Four sets of 25 names will be rotated annually; thus, the set for 2005 will be re-used in 2009. In case more than 25 systems are named in one season, an auxiliary set will be used. PAGASA names for 2005 are (** indicates name has already been assigned in 2005): Auring ** Jolina Ramil Bising Kiko Santi Crising Labuyo Tino Dante Maring Undang Emong Nando Vinta Feria Ondoy Wilma Gorio Pepeng Yolanda Huaning Quedan Zoraida Isang In the unlikely event that the list is exhausted, the following names would be allocated as needed: Alamid, Bruno, Conching, Dolor, Ernie, Florante, Gerardo, Hernan, Isko and Jerome. **** Index to Feature of the Month Articles for 2004 **** Jan - TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN (also Index to Feature of the Month Articles for 2003) Feb - TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA for the AUSTRALIAN REGION Mar - WESTERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for 2004 and UPDATED TABLES OF ATLANTIC NET TROPICAL ACTIVITY Apr - TABLES OF NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NET TROPICAL ACTIVITY May - SURVEY RESULTS - SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE QUESTIONS Jun - "MOZ-MIDGETS" AND "MED-CANES" Jul - MONSOON DEPRESSIONS AND STRONG TROPICAL WAVES Aug - SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES 2004 - 2005 SEASON and NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES Sep - ONE-HIT WONDERS AND SUPER TYPHOONS Oct - A COMPARISON OF THE WIND FIELDS IN HURRICANE EDNA (1954) AND HURRICANE JUAN (2003) (by Chris Fogarty) Nov - A REVIEW OF THE 2003-2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON FOR THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE Dec - A REVIEW OF THE 2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ************************************************************************* ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for January: No tropical cyclones North Atlantic Tropical Activity for January -------------------------------------------- On the evening of 4 January I received an e-mail from Sandy Delgado of Miami, Florida. Sandy was calling attention to an interesting-looking extratropical low-pressure system located near 30N/50W. A burst of convection had occurred during the afternoon and was located just north- east of a fairly well-defined surface LOW center. The appearance in an accompanying satellite image resembled a shear-type tropical cyclone in some aspects. The LOW was nowhere near becoming a tropical or even subtropical cyclone, but it was nonetheless interesting in that SSTs in the area ranged from 24 to 26 C. Out-of-season tropical cyclones have originated in that general area in the past (e.g., Alice of December, 1954, Lili of December, 1984, and Ana of April, 2003). ************************************************************************* SOUTH ATLANTIC (SAT) - Atlantic Ocean South of the Equator Activity for January: No tropical cyclones South Atlantic Tropical Activity for January -------------------------------------------- Only ten months earlier certain portions of Brazil's southeastern coastline were severely damaged by the rather potent Cyclone Catarina. (I'll leave the qualifier 'tropical' off in the interest of not stirring up another hornets' nest!) On the 30th of January a low-pressure system near 20.5S/37.5W began to show a few signs of the first stages of evolving towards a subtropical or tropical cyclone. There was a big blow-up of convection and some evidence of upper-level outflow. John Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, stated that he'd place it near the dividing line between an extratropical and subtropical cyclone. Alexandre Aguiar of the Climatologia Urbana Weather Center in Brazil passed along a forecast from an amateur meteorological site in Brazil which quite confidently forecast the development of a strong tropical storm. Needless to say, this did not materialize. I received no further information on the system, and if it had continued to develop into a tropical-like system, it would surely have attracted much attention among tropical cyclone discussion groups. ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for January: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for January: 1 tropical storm Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so reliably provide. In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of warning responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for January ----------------------------------------------- January tropical cyclones are not exactly common in the Western North Pacific basin, but they are not all that rare either. The first named tropical storm of the 2005 season appeared around the middle of January and pursued a northward track which took it just east of the Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Kulap's track was quite similar to the track of the final cyclone of 2004, Tropical Storm Noru. Kulap almost reached typhoon intensity, and there are some tropical cyclone researchers who feel that the system did briefly become a typhoon. A report on Kulap, written by Kevin Boyle, follows. TROPICAL STORM KULAP (TC-01W / STS 0501) 13 - 19 January ---------------------------------------- Kulap: contributed by Thailand, is the Thai word for 'rose' A. Storm Origins ---------------- The first significant tropical cyclone of 2005 in the Northwest Pacific (See Note) originated from a disturbance near 4.5N/152.0E that was included in JTWC's STWO at 1200 UTC 12 January. At that time, deep convection was beginning to consolidate over a broad LLCC and upper-level analysis depicted a light wind shear environment and moderate diffluence. Development of the system continued and a TCFA was issued at 13/1400 UTC. This was superseded by the first JTWC warning at 13/1800 UTC which placed the centre of Tropical Depression 01W approximately 115 nm southwest of Chuuk. Tropical Depression 01W proceeded to strengthen slowly during the 14th as it drifted erratically west to west-northwestward and reached tropical storm intensity at 1800 UTC 14 January approximately 430 nm south-southeast of Guam. At this time, QuikScat imagery showed a large area of gale-force winds extending well to the north of the centre. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Initially tracking west to west-northwestward, Tropical Storm 01W turned northwards at 0600 UTC 15 January with the LLCC relocated to a position approximately 375 nm south-southeast of Guam. Gradual strengthening brought the MSW up to 45 kts by 15/1200 UTC, this intensity then remaining constant for a further 24 hours. JMA upgraded the system to tropical storm intensity at this time, dubbing the system Kulap. Tropical Storm Kulap continued north on a track that paralleled the Marianas, making its closest approach to Guam at 16/1200 UTC when it passed 130 nm to the east. After a slight dip in intensity at 17/0000 UTC, Kulap intensified again, reaching a peak intensity of 60 kts at 17/1800 UTC. At this time, a northeasterly heading had already become established, the system having recurved around the low to mid-level steering ridge to the east. Tropical Storm Kulap maintained its maximum intensity of 60 kts as it turned east-northeastwards at 0000 UTC 18 March, being located approximately 355 nm east-northeast of Saipan. In fact, Kulap remained a strong tropical storm for a large portion of the 18th even as it began to approach the mid-latitude westerlies, but the storm began to quickly lose steam at 18/1800 UTC when the MSW was finally brought down to 45 kts. At this point, JTWC decided to call it a day and released the final warning with Kulap located about 615 nm west of Wake Island and racing east-northeastward at 23 kts as it began to undergo extratropical transition. JMA continued issuing tropical cyclone bulletins for another 12 hours before downgrading Kulap to a low-pressure area. All Asian warning agencies except HKO and PAGASA estimated peak MSWs of 50 kts with JMA estimating a minimum CP of 985 mb. Neither HKO nor PAGASA issued warnings on this system. (Editor's Note: Mark Lander and Roger Edson feel that Kulap quite possibly attained typhoon intensity for a brief period on the morning of 17 January. However, as Mark points out, it is a close call, and JTWC's available intensity estimates from the official satellite agencies were ranging from 45 to 65 kts. Normally 5 or 10 kts isn't worth arguing about, but since the number of Western Pacific typhoons is an important and widely-cited climatological statistic, that particular 5 or 10 kts has a disproportionate importance.) A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Storm Kulap may be found at the following link: (Note: Even though Tropical Storm Kulap was the first significant tropical cyclone of 2005 in the Northwest Pacific, it could also be considered the last storm of the 2004 season. Climatologically speaking, tropical systems can occur at any time of the year in this basin, but February statistically has the lowest average number. Therefore, January may be considered a late season month in the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone calendar.) C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Huang Chunliang send the following rainfall observations from Chuuk in association with Tropical Storm Kulap: Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed: CHUUK, ECI (7.45N 151.83E) 166.6 mm [13/06-14/06Z] CHUUK, ECI (7.45N 151.83E) 139.4 mm [13/18-14/18Z] D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ There were no damages or casualties known to have been caused by Tropical Storm Kulap. (Report written by Kevin Boyle with contributions by Huang Chunliang) ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for January: 1 tropical depression 1 cyclonic storm Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin. The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and 3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity; hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status within 48 hours. North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January ------------------------------------------------ While January tropical cyclones are much rarer in the North Indian Ocean region than in the Northwest Pacific, they are not altogether unknown. Cyclones of tropical storm intensity formed in the North Indian Ocean in 1986 and 1991, the former in the Bay of Bengal and the second in the Arabian Sea. January of 2005 saw the formation of two numbered (by JTWC) systems in the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone 01B was a very weak tropical depression which formed during the second week of the month roughly a couple hundred miles southeast of southern Sri Lanka. The system drifted erratically northward for a couple of days, dissipating on the 10th. Estimated peak winds did not exceed 25 kts. A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone 01B may be found at the following link: The second Bay of Bengal cyclone came on the heels of TC-01B, forming around mid-month several hundred miles east-southeast of Sri Lanka. This system, known as Tropical Cyclone 02B by JTWC, developed into a minimal tropical storm (per both JTWC's and IMD's analysis) and was christened as Cyclonic Storm Hibaru by IMD. A report on Cyclonic Storm Hibaru follows. CYCLONIC STORM HIBARU (TC-02B / BOB0501) 13 - 17 January ----------------------------------------- Hibaru: contributed by the Maldives On 10 January an area of convection developed and persisted about 475 nm east-southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka. The convection was associated with an area of broad troughing, but microwave imagery indicated no clear LLCC. Favorable diffluence lay over the system and vertical shear was weak. The next day the disturbance was located about 600 nm east-southeast of Colombo and there had been some consolidation of the associated deep convection. QuikScat data indicated enhanced winds both poleward and equatorward of an elongated LLCC. JTWC upped the potential for development to 'fair'. Very slow development ensued on the 12th and into the 13th--at 13/1300 UTC JTWC issued the first TCFA for the system. Deep convection was becoming better organized over the LLCC with spiral banding evident to the north. At about the same time IMD classified the LOW as a depression, later upgrading it to a deep depression (i.e., 30 kts) at 0300 UTC on 14 January. JTWC issued a second TCFA at 14/1300 UTC, followed by the first warning on TC-02B at 1800 UTC. The initial MSW was set at 35 kts and the cyclone's center was quasi-stationary approximately 440 nm east-southeast of Colombo. Tropical Cyclone 02B's track was very erratic. Throughout its life- time the system meandered slowly a few hundred miles east-southeast of Sri Lanka. It is not certain at what point IMD upgraded the system to cyclonic storm status. At 14/1200 UTC it was still classified as a deep depression. On the next warning which I have available (15/1800 UTC) it was classified as a cyclonic storm. This system was named Hibaru by IMD--I do have a warning issued at 16/0000 UTC in which the system was referred to as (interestingly) 'Tropical' Storm Hibaru. Hibaru for the most part drifted very slowly southward on the 15th and 16th. At 16/1800 UTC it was relocated to the northwest to a position 360 nm east- southeast of Colombo, tracking north-northwestward at 6 kts. At this time JTWC dropped the MSW to 30 kts, and at 17/0000 UTC the final JTWC warning was issued, lowering the winds to 25 kts. Satellite CI estimates were 25 and 30 kts, and the partially-exposed LLCC was located to the northeast of the remaining deep convection. The cyclone's slow and erratic motion resulted from a weak steering environment balanced by a low to mid-level ridge to the north of the system and westerlies along the equator. The highest MSW estimated by both JTWC and IMD was 35 kts (1-min avg). A graphic displaying the track of Cyclonic Storm Hibaru may be found at the following link: No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Cyclonic Storm Hibaru. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for January: 1 tropical depression 2 tropical storms ** 1 intense tropical cyclone ** - JTWC issued no warnings for one of these systems Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January ---------------------------------------------------- The South Indian Ocean west of longitude 90E was fairly active during January. Bulletins were issued on four numbered disturbances, and three of these became tropical storms. Ernest was the only system to reach tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) intensity, but intensified enough to become the second intense tropical cyclone (MSW >= 90 kts) of the season. (Bento in November was the first.) Tropical Cyclone Ernest, as well as its successor, Tropical Storm Felapi, both affected the southwestern portion of the island of Madagascar, leaving in their wake widespread flooding. The other tropical storm, Daren, formed in the eastern part of the basin and had no effect on populated areas. Early in the month Tropical Depression 07 formed in the Mozambique Channel and moved southeastward into western Madagascar between Morombe and Toliara (Tulear) with peak winds estimated at 30 kts. (No warnings were issued on this system by JTWC.) A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Depression 07 may be found at the following link: Reports on Daren, Ernest and Felapi follow. There was one additional system numbered by MFR--Tropical Disturbance 10. Only one bulletin was issued on this system, at 1200 UTC on 23 January. The LOW was classified as a "zone of disturbed weather" near 16S/79E with winds estimated at only 20 kts. The system apparently did not strengthen further as no additional bulletins were issued. MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DAREN (MFR-09 / TC-11S) 17 - 22 January ------------------------------------------------- Daren: contributed by Mauritius A. Storm Origins ---------------- On 13 January an area of convection developed and persisted about 700 nm west-northwest of the Cocos Islands. A weak LLCC was present with increasing deep convection located in an environment of low vertical shear and favorable divergence aloft. The disturbance continued to move westward and 24 hours later was located approximately 575 nm northwest of the Cocos Islands. A fully-exposed LLCC was visible with deep convection located to the west of the center. A zone of high vertical shear was located to the north with weak outflow in the poleward direction. On the 15th the system exhibited an elongated LLCC with shallow convection along the periphery. Organization gradually increased on the 16th, and at 0900 UTC on 17 January JTWC issued a TCFA for the system, which was then located a little over 700 nm east of Diego Garcia. At 1200 UTC MFR issued the first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 09 with the MSW estimated at 25 kts. JTWC's first warning on TC-11S came at 0000 UTC on 18 January, locating the center about 650 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia and tracking south-southwestward at 14 kts. B. Synoptic History ------------------- JTWC estimated the MSW at 35 kts (1-min avg) on their first warning at 18/0000 UTC, and upped it to 45 kts at 1800 UTC, but it was not until 19/1200 UTC that MFR (and apparently Mauritius also) upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Daren with 40-kt winds. Daren at this time was located approximately 450 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia and tracking rather quickly to the west-southwest in excess of 20 kts as it sped along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The MSW estimate of 40 kts turned out to be the peak intensity for Daren--in fact even before Daren was named JTWC had reduced the MSW slightly to 40 kts (1-min avg). As Daren continued to sail west-southwestward across the central South Indian Ocean it began to run into an environment of increasing vertical shear. JTWC issued their final warning on Daren at 20/1800 UTC, noting that the LLCC had become exposed to the north of the convection. At the same time MFR reduced Daren to minimal tropical storm intensity, and at 21/0000 UTC downgraded the system to a tropical depression, centered about 325 nm northeast of Rodrigues Island. The system continued to move slightly south of due west as it slowly weakened. The final reference to ex-Daren by MFR was at 1200 UTC on 22 January when it was located about 150 nm north of Mauritius. A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Storm Daren may be found at the following link: C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical Storm Daren. (Report written by Gary Padgett) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNEST (MFR-08 / TC-12S) 17 - 25 January --------------------------------------------------- Ernest: contributed by the Comoros A. Storm Origins ---------------- The second intense tropical cyclone to stir Southwest Indian waters during the 2004-2005 season had its origins within an area of convection which sprang up approximately 650 nm west of Diego Garcia on 16 January. Convection was persisting over a developing LLCC within a region of low to moderate vertical shear and favorable poleward outflow. MFR issued the first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 08 at 0700 UTC on the 17th, fixing the poorly-defined center about 650 nm north of Mauritius. The system continued to march westward, gradually increasing in organization. JTWC issued a TCFA at 17/2000 UTC as deep convection was consolidating over the LLCC, but the development trend plateaued on the 18th. However, the potential for development remained good and a second TCFA was issued at 18/2000 UTC. MFR had ceased issuing bulletins after 17/1200 UTC, but resumed them at 19/0600 UTC. Tropical Disturbance 08 was then located approximately 160 nm north-northwest of the northern tip of Madagascar. JTWC issued a third TCFA at 19/1300 UTC, although there had been a decrease in deep convection and 850-mb vorticity had diminished some during the previous 12 hours. However, early on 20 January the disturbance began to develop rather rapidly. At 20/0600 UTC MFR directly upgraded the system from a tropical disturbance to a 40-kt tropical storm with the Meteorological Services of Madagascar assigning the name Ernest. Also, the first JTWC warning on TC-12S was issued at the same time with an initial warning intensity of 45 kts (1-min avg). Tropical Storm Ernest was located about 400 nm north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and was moving west- southwestward at 12 kts into the Mozambique Channel. Dual outflow channels had become established and the beginning signs of an eye were evident. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Ernest intensified very quickly after becoming a tropical storm. Winds reached 65 kts (per both MFR and JTWC) only 12 hours after the system was named, qualifying Ernest for tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) status. The system was then located over the very warm waters of the Mozambique Channel about 360 nm northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and moving southwestward at 11 kts. Ernest's intensification trend levelled off somewhat, however, for about 24 hours after reaching tropical cyclone intensity. The storm's motion, which had been west- southwesterly, became increasingly southwesterly, and by the time that Ernest began to intensify significantly again, it was moving due southward through the Channel along the western periphery of a mid-level steering ridge to the southeast. Tropical Cyclone Ernest's intensity began to creep upward at 21/1800 UTC, and by 0600 UTC on 22 January had reached its peak MSW of 90 kts, thereby qualifying for intense tropical cyclone status. JTWC's estimated MSW of 100 kts (1-min avg) is in excellent agreement with MFR's. Ernest was then located approximately 300 nm west-southwest of Antananarivo. The cyclone was a rather compact system with gales extending outward only about 70 nm from the center in most quadrants. The estimated minimum CP was 940 hPa, and satellite CI estimates were T5.5 from all agencies. Later on the 22nd Ernest's eye had become covered by the CDO, but micro- wave imagery revealed that the eye was still well-defined. Ernest held on to its peak intensity for 18 hours, then began to weaken. As the cyclone reached the 24th parallel its track took a jog toward the southeast. By 0600 UTC on 23 January Ernest was just about on the southwestern coast of Madagascar roughly 65 nm south of Tulear with peak winds estimated at 75 kts. The storm continued to trek south- eastward, skimming the coastline, and at 1200 UTC was located very near the large island's southern tip with the MSW estimated at 70 kts. Following its encounter with Madagascar, Tropical Cyclone Ernest began to accelerate toward the southeast and weaken. At 23/1800 UTC both MFR and JTWC downgraded the cyclone to tropical storm status, and this was JTWC's final warning on the system as it was showing signs of the first stages of extratropical transition. Tropical Storm Ernest continued to race away to the southeast. MFR declared the storm extratropical at 24/1200 UTC when located about 600 nm south-southwest of Reunion Island. The storm's forward speed continued to increase as it sped southeastward, and the maximum winds were forecast to increase once more, possible due to the rapid translational speed. The final reference to ex-Ernest by MFR was at 25/0000 UTC, locating a 65-kt extratropical storm center approximately 900 nm south-southeast of Reunion Island. A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Ernest may be found at the following link: C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ The center of Ernest passed near Mayotte Island in the northern Mozambique Channel on 20 January shortly after being upgraded to a tropical storm. Winds peaked at SE/42 kts, gusting to 53 kts, at 0500 UTC, then dropped off to ENE/15 kts at 0600 UTC. They had increased again by 0700 UTC and reached a secondary peak of NNE/34 kts, gusting to 47 kts, at 0800 UTC. The minimum SLP of 995 hPa was recorded at 0600 UTC, strongly suggesting that Ernest's center passed very near the island around that hour. Except for the drop off at 0600 UTC, winds gusted in excess of gale force from 0400 through 1000 UTC. (The above comments based on hourly observations only.) D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ The heavy rainfall brought by Tropical Cyclone Ernest triggered significant flooding in southern Madagascar. This was exacerbated by the arrival of Tropical Storm Felapi only five days later. Several weeks after the storms the tally was 19 dead, 214 persons unaccounted for and 32,000 homeless. Additional information on the effects of Ernest and Felapi may be found at the following links: (Report written by Gary Padgett) MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FELAPI (MFR-11) 26 January - 2 February -------------------------------------------------- Felapi: contributed by Swaziland A. Storm Origins ---------------- A tropical disturbance began to take shape in the southern Mozambique Channel on 26 January. MFR issued the first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 11 at 26/1200 UTC. The bulletin indicated that several LLCCs possibly existed, but the main one was located approximately 250 nm northwest of Tulear on the southwestern coast of the island of Madagascar. Deep convection was over this center, and the potential for intensification was considered good. The disturbance was relocated about 90 nm to the south at 27/0000 UTC, and thence began a slow crawl eastward. Winds were upped to 30 kts at 27/0600 UTC, making the system an official tropical depression. At 1800 UTC the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Felapi while located 115 nm northwest of Tulear. The Dvorak ratings from MFR at this time were T2.5/2.5, which normally means a 30-kt (10-min avg) tropical depression in this basin. However, the MFR bulletin issued at 27/1800 UTC indicates that microwave imagery, which revealed a clearly-defined LLCC, may have been used as a basis for upgrading the system to tropical storm status. Also, satellite classi- fication bulletins from SAB supported classifying the system as a tropical storm. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Once having been upgraded to tropical storm status, Felapi commenced a southeasterly track which took it inland into southwestern Madagascar. At 1200 UTC on 28 January Felapi was inland about 80 km southeast of Tulear (also spelled Toliara) and had been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The system continued moving southeastward across south- western Madagascar and had emerged into the South Indian Ocean by 0600 UTC on the 29th. The ex-Felapi system then halted and swung around to a northeasterly track offshore from Madagascar's southeastern coastline. The final bulletin from MFR was issued at 31/1200 UTC and placed the disturbance east of Manakara, Madagascar, and about 300 nm west-southwest of Reunion Island. (Interestingly, Dvorak estimates from SAB on the 29th suggest that Felapi may have briefly reached tropical storm status after emerging off the southern tip of Madagascar.) Bulletins on ex-Felapi were reinitiated at 1200 UTC on 1 February, this time as a subtropical depression with the center located roughly about 475 nm southwest of Reunion Island. During the two days in non-warning status the LOW center had drifted southward well east of southern Madagascar and had re-intensified to 35 kts as a hybrid, sub- tropical-type system. However, the MSW was lowered to 30 kts six hours later and remained pegged there for the remainder of the time that bulletins were being issued by MFR. The subtropical depression continued moving southward, then turning to a southeasterly track on the 2nd. The final reference to ex-Felapi by MFR at 02/1800 UTC placed the center at a point about 615 nm south-southwest of Reunion Island. A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Storm Felapi may be found at the following link: (JTWC never issued any warnings on Tropical Storm Felapi. The regular STWO for the South Indian Ocean issued at 27/1800 UTC made no mention of any disturbance in the Channel. An interim bulletin issued at 28/0000 UTC did refer to the system, noting that a mostly-exposed LLCC lay off the southwestern coast of Madagascar with deep convection over land. The disturbance was assessed as having a fair potential for development. Based on the wording in the 28/0000 UTC STWO, there must have been another interim STWO issued after the regular 27/1800 UTC issuance which I do not have in my files.) C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Tropical Storm Felapi struck the same general area which had been affected by Tropical Cyclone Ernest only five days earlier. The combined rains from the two tropical storms led to widespread and significant flooding. More information may be found in Section D of the report on Tropical Cyclone Ernest above. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for January: 1 tropical LOW ** 1 inland monsoon LOW 3 tropical cyclones ** - classfied as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor- dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January ------------------------------------------ There was a flurry of tropical LOWs and weak tropical cyclones in the waters off northwestern Australia during January. As December was ending two LOWs were of concern--one inland over the Northern Territory and another in the Timor Sea. The former meandered around over the Northern Territory and dropped copious amounts of rainfall, but never managed to move out over the surrounding seas where it would have had a chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. The tropical LOW in the Timor Sea moved eastward and briefly became Tropical Cyclone Raymond on the 2nd before moving inland in the Kimberley region. Raymond's remnant LOW moved eastward into the Gulf of Carpentaria where it began to blossom again, then reversed its course and moved westward, eventually reaching the Timor Sea once more. JTWC upgraded the rejuvenated system to minimal tropical storm status, but Perth classified it as only a tropical LOW. Tropical Cyclones Sally and Tim were short-lived, minimal tropical cyclones which formed much further west--well away from Australia--and moved southwestward, neither lasting for more than a couple of days as a tropical cyclone. Short reports on all the above-mentioned systems follow. NORTHERN TERRITORY MONSOON LOW (NRL Invest 96S) 29 December - 2 January -------------------------------------------------- A monsoon LOW formed over the Northern Territory on 29 December east of Port Keats and well south of Darwin. Over the next couple of days the system moved slowly northeastward, reaching a point just southeast Jabiru on the 31st. Deep convection was cyclic around a fairly well-organized LLCC, and environmental conditions were considered somewhat favorable for development as a tropical cyclone should the center move out over the ocean. However, the LOW reversed its motion and began to drift back southwestward, passing near Katherine and reaching a point just northwest of Victoria River Downs on 1 January. Thereafter, the LOW accelerated south-southwestward further inland and was discounted as a potential tropical cyclone candidate. (No tabular or graphical track is available for this system.) Huang Chunliang has sent me some rainfall observations associated with the LOW, which is the main reason I've included this brief report on the system. Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed: MILINGIMBI (WMO94140 12.12S 134.90E) 211.8 mm [30/00-31/00Z] MCCLUER ISLAND AWS (-------- 11.05S 132.98E) 202.8 mm [30/00-31/00Z] MANINGRIDA (WMO94142 12.05S 134.22E) 113.8 mm [30/00-31/00Z] ELCHO ISLAND (WMO94146 12.03S 135.57E) 107.4 mm [30/00-31/00Z] BRADSHAW (-------- 14.95S 130.80E) 213.2 mm [31/00-01/00Z] PORT KEATS AERO (-------- 14.25S 129.53E) 212.0 mm [31/00-01/00Z] JABIRU AIRPORT (WMO94137 12.67S 132.90E) 116.0 mm [31/00-01/00Z] TIMBER CREEK (WMO94220 15.65S 130.47E) 129.2 mm [01/00-02/00Z] Note: In the above table, dates of 30 and 31 refer to December, 2004, while dates of 01 and 02 refer to January, 2005. (Report written by Gary Padgett with contributions by Huang Chunliang) TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND (TC-07S) 31 December - 3 January -------------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- The first of a series of short-lived, minor tropical cyclones in the Southeast Indian Ocean during January and early February began at the end of December when an area of convection formed off the coast of Western Australia. On 30 December satellite imagery depicted cycling deep convection over a possible weak LLCC located in a region of weak vertical shear and moderate diffluence aloft. Perth began issuing gale warnings on the developing LOW at 0400 UTC on the 31st, locating the center approximately 215 nm north-northwest of Broome. As the day progressed water vapor imagery revealed increasing outflow along the western periphery of the system, and an upper-level analysis indicated an increase in 850-mb vorticity. In spite of the fact that vertical shear had increased some, JTWC upgraded the potential for further development to 'fair'. JTWC issued a TCFA at 31/1700 UTC as deep convection continued to consolidate over the LLCC. The first JTWC warning on TC-07S was issued at 31/1800 UTC with the center located about 200 nm north-northwest of Broome, moving slowly southward. However, Perth continued to maintain the system as a 30-kt tropical LOW. Late on 31 December the LOW began to track slowly northeastward, requiring a relocation in the warning issued at 0400 UTC on 1 January. The system had become no better organized--the center was fully-exposed to the northeast of the deep convection. As New Year's Day progressed the tropical LOW commenced a slow east-southeastward drift as convection once more began to increase over the LLCC. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Early on 2 January the system's appearance in satellite imagery had improved to the point that Perth upgraded it to Tropical Cyclone Raymond. Also, JTWC upped the MSW to 50 kts (1-min avg) based on Dvorak ratings of T3.0 and T3.5. Raymond was located approximately 250 nm north-northeast of Broome at 02/0400 UTC, moving eastward. The easterly motion continued and accelerated as the 2nd of January progressed. By 1600 UTC Raymond had moved inland just west of Kalumburu in the Kimberley region and had been downgraded back to a tropical LOW. The remnant LOW continued to move eastward across the Northern Territory as it weakened, eventually reaching the Gulf of Carpentaria. Ultimately, the ex-Raymond LOW reversed itself and moved back westward across northern Australia, moving out into the Timor Sea on the 13th and necessitating the resumption of gale warnings. JTWC also issued warnings on the system once more, designating it as TC-10S. A separate report on TC-10S may be found below following the report on Tropical Cyclone Sally. A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Raymond may be found at the following link: NOTE: The final position in Raymond's track, which shows a sudden jog to the southwest, should probably be discarded. This was based upon JTWC's final warning position, issued after the final advice from BoM Perth, and considering the subsequent known history of the ex-Raymond vortex, was likely in error. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Patrick Hoareau sent a couple of pressure observations from early on 2 January around the time that Raymond was upgraded to tropical cyclone status. At 02/0300 UTC Browse Island (14.1S/123.5E) reported a SLP of 986.2 mb, and at 02/0700 UTC Kuri Bay (15.5S/124.5E) reported a SLP of 998 mb and falling. Huang Chunliang has sent the following rainfall amounts associated with Tropical Cyclone Raymond: Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed: MANGO FARM (WMO94117 13.73S 130.68E) 195.2 mm [03/00-04/00Z] CHANNEL POINT (WMO94121 13.17S 130.12E) 134.2 mm [03/00-04/00Z] CAPE FOURCROY (-------- 11.78S 130.02E) 198.2 mm [04/00-05/00Z] CAMOOWEALTOWNSHIP (WMO94255 19.92S 138.12E) 121.8 mm [04/00-05/00Z] CHANNEL POINT (WMO94121 13.17S 130.12E) 110.6 mm [04/00-05/00Z] CLONCURRY AIRPORT (-------- 20.67S 140.50E) 152.2 mm [05/00-06/00Z] A special thanks to Patrick and Chunliang for the information they provided. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone Raymond have been received. (Report written by Gary Padgett with contributions by Patrick Hoareau and Huang Chunliang) TROPICAL CYCLONE SALLY (TC-09S) 7 - 10 January ------------------------------------------ On 6 January an area of convection developed roughly 500 nm west- southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. Deep convection was persisting over a well-defined LLCC, and a 06/1131 UTC QuikScat pass depicted a symmetrical LLCC with convergent banding wrapping in from the northeast. UW-CIMSS products showed a region of increasing low-level vorticity associated with the LLCC. JTWC assessed the potential for development as 'fair'. At 0400 UTC on 7 January the Perth TCWC issued the first gale warning for the LOW, placing the center approximately 200 nm east- northeast of the Cocos Islands. Although deep convection weakened some during the day, a QuikScat pass at 1108 UTC showed winds of 25 kts near the center. JTWC issued a TCFA at 2100 UTC as deep convection was increasing and persisting over the LLCC, which was equatorward of the subtropical ridge axis. At 0400 UTC on 8 January Perth upgraded the system to Tropical Cyclone Sally, located about 200 nm east-southeast of the Cocos Islands and moving west-southwestward at 6 kts. Shortly afterward, at 08/0600 UTC, JTWC issued their first warning on TC-09S. Tropical Cyclone Sally moved on a slow southwesterly track throughout its life as a tropical cyclone, guided by a large mid-level ridge situated to its southeast. The cyclone's peak intensity of 45 kts was reached on the 9th; after that Sally weakened quickly due to the combined deleterious effects of dry air and increased vertical shear. Perth downgraded Sally to a tropical LOW at 0100 UTC on 10 January, and the final bulletin at 0400 UTC placed the former tropical cyclone's center about 250 nm south-southwest of the Cocos Islands. Interestingly, JTWC's final center position on Sally at 10/0600 UTC was almost three degrees of longitude east of Perth's. The peak MSW estimated by JTWC during Sally's life was 40 kts on the 8th and 9th. An 85-GHz image taken at 1133 UTC on 8 January revealed a very small "red" core with a small eye feature visible. A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Sally may be found at the following link: As far as is known Tropical Cyclone Sally was responsible for no damage nor casualties. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL LOW (TC-10S) 13 - 19 January ----------------------------------- The tropical LOW identified as TC-10S by JTWC was quite likely a redevelopment of the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Raymond. According to information received from Geoffrey Garden of the Darwin TCWC, the ex-Raymond vortex travelled eastward across the Northern Territory and moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria on the 8th of January. The cloud system associated with Raymond tended to dissipate after landfall and there wasn't much of a satellite signature from the 5th to the 7th, but convection flared up significantly in the Gulf of Carpentaria on the 8th, and the cloud mass subsequently tracked westward across the Top End of the Northern Territory on the 10th, moving along with the low-level vortex. (Thanks to Geoffrey for sending me this information.) JTWC began mentioning the rejuvenated disturbance on the 12th, assigning a 'fair' potential for development as the system began to move into the Timor Sea. Later in the day the center temporarily moved back over land near Kalumburu with convection becoming cyclic, but by 1600 UTC on the 13th had moved back over water about 120 nm north of Yampi Sound. Deep convection was persisting over the LLCC, vertical shear was low, divergence aloft was favorable, and 850-mb vorticity was increasing. Perth's outlook issued at 13/2200 UTC placed the center approximately 250 nm north-northeast of Broome, and the LOW was given a moderate potential for development in 2 or 3 days. The first gale warning was issued by Perth at 15/0000 UTC, and JTWC issued a TCFA at 1500 UTC. JTWC's first warning on TC-10S was issued at 15/1800 UTC, placing the center about 350 nm north-northwest of Port Hedland, Western Australia, with peak 1-min avg winds estimated at 35 kts. Guided by a low to mid-level ridge to the south, the tropical LOW continued to move westward away from the Australian coastline. On the 16th the system's organization began to decrease--by 16/1800 UTC the center had become partially-exposed east of decreasing convection. BoM Perth never upgraded the LOW to tropical cyclone status, but kept on issuing gale warnings through 16/2200 UTC due to the presence of gales well-removed from the center in the southwestern quadrant. Gale warnings were discontinued at 17/0000 UTC with the LOW located several hundred miles southeast of Christmas Island. JTWC issued their final warning at 17/0600 UTC. The remnant LOW continued westward through the 19th--at 19/0400 UTC it was located approximately 125 nm south of Cocos Island. No more references to the system were made in Perth's daily STWOs. A graphic displaying the track of the tropical LOW may be found at the following link: No reports of damage or casualties have been received. Huang Chunliang sent one rainfall observation taken before the disturbance had moved back out over the Timor Sea. Victoria River Downs (WMO 94232, 16.4S/131.0E) measured 104.4 mm of rain between 11/0000 and 12/0000 UTC. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL CYCLONE TIM (TC-13S) 23 - 26 January ---------------------------------------- A STWO issued by JTWC at 0800 UTC on 22 January mentioned an area of convection which had persisted about 500 nm north of Learmonth, Western Australia. Convection was increasing over an established LLCC, and vertical shear was moderate, even though the disturbance was located beneath the axis of the subtropical ridge. Also, Perth's tropical weather outlook for Northwestern Australian waters on the 22nd mentioned a tropical LOW with a moderate potential for development. The system began to develop fairly rapidly on the 23rd. Perth issued the first gale warning at 23/0900 UTC, and just four hours later upgraded the LOW to Tropical Cyclone Tim. At 1300 UTC Tim was located about 375 nm southeast of Christmas Island, moving southwestward at 6 kts. JTWC issued a TCFA for the system at 1400 UTC due to an increase in deep convection around the LLCC, and the first warning on TC-13S followed at 1800 UTC. Throughout its short life Tropical Cyclone Tim moved on a slow west- southwesterly course as it was steered by an anticyclone lying to its southeast. Tim's rapid development which earned it a name did not continue. The MSW as estimated by Perth peaked at 45 kts at 2200 UTC on 23 January--this was reduced to 40 kts twelve hours later. JTWC's peak estimated 1-min avg MSW for Tim was 35 kts. Tim began to weaken on the 25th, and BoM Perth issued the final gale warning on the minimal cyclone at 25/1000 UTC, locating the center approximately 400 nm south- southwest of Christmas Island. (JTWC had finalized the system at 25/0600 UTC.) The remnant LOW continued westward and was located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cocos Islands early on the 26th. A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Tim may be found at the following link: No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone Tim have been received. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for January: 1 tropical/hybrid LOW 1 severe tropical cyclone ** ** - system originated east of 160E in Fiji's AOR Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor- dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Northeast Australia/Coral Sea Tropical Activity for January ----------------------------- No tropical cyclones formed in Southern Hemisphere waters between 135E and 160E during January, but one interesting system developed which produced significant effects in Queensland and New South Wales. The initial tropical LOW had very good development potential except for one thing: it was located inland over the Cape York Peninsula. Later, a new center formed under some of the LOW's associated convection and moved offshore, strengthening as a hybrid system. During this stage very heavy rainfall fell over parts of the two Australian states, and there were also some drownings reported due to heavy surf. Following is a report on this interesting weather system written by Simon Clarke. Also, there was a visitor to the Australian Region from east of 160E during January. Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry entered Brisbane's AOR shortly after intensifying to hurricane strength. The cyclone, however, stalled and moved generally southward for several days just west of 160E. The report on Kerry can be found below in the section covering the South Pacific basin. CAPE YORK LOW & CORAL SEA HYBRID (NRL Invest Areas 98P & 92P) 19 - 25 January ---------------------------------------------------- A. Synoptic History ------------------- A tropical LOW first became apparent in a position to the northeast of the tip of the Cape York Peninsula (Queensland, Australia) late on 19 January 2005. The LOW moved south-southwestward and overland on Cape York near Iron Range on 19 January before it could reach cyclone status. However, despite this, a vigorous monsoonal flow from both sides of Cape York maintained the depression's LLCC and the system became a persistent and a clearly-identifiable feature in satellite imagery for several days to come. Despite being over land, infrared and water vapor imagery depicted a small region of cycling convection located primarily along the southern periphery of the LLCC. An upper-level analysis revealed that the LLCC was vertically stacked to a subtropical anticyclone and with low vertical wind shear and good divergence; dynamics were favourable for rapid development into a cyclone if the system should move back over water. Accordingly, RMSC Brisbane issued its first Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities between Mapoon and Gilbert River Mouth on Cape York Peninsula at 19/0616 UTC as the 1003-hPa tropical LOW, located approximately 130 km east-southeast of Weipa (13.0S/143.2E), threatened to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Despite this the LOW maintained an inland path down the middle of Cape York Peninsula, maintaining its impressive presence on satellite imagery. However, Cyclone Watches were discontinued at 21/0004 UTC as it became clear that the LOW, now located near latitude 14.3S/142.6E (approximately 55 km west-southwest of Coen), would not move into the Gulf of Carpentaria as earlier predicted. By 23 January, the main centre was located near Georgetown (18.3S/143.6E). At this time the LOW became elongated, stretching towards the northeast coast of Queensland. A large band of heavy rain developed near Townsville in an area of backing winds with height (warm air advection) and a new centre rapidly formed in this region near Lucinda. This centre quickly moved out to sea. (NOTE: The new and perhaps "multi-centred" hybrid LOW was effectively a reorganisation of the initial system, and for purposes of this report is treated as a single system). The first gale warning was issued for the southern quadrant of the new 999-hPa LOW "centre" located near 18.5S/147.0E at 23/1600 UTC. Brisbane also commenced issuing Severe Weather Warnings for the LOW as it moved to sea in the anticipation that it might intensify further, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to the nearby coastline. However, the LOW never regained its initial tropical characteristics, and by 25 January was drawn into a developing trough to the south and accelerated to the southeast, parallel to but well off the Queensland and northern New South Wales coastlines. A graphic display of this interesting and unusual system may be found at the following link: B. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Despite not reaching cyclone status, the depression turned into a killer, bringing heavy rains to the southern tropical coast between Townsville and Mackay. Two cars collided with a truck near Yalboroo, south of Proserpine (Queensland) in heavy rain associated with the depression on 23 January, resulting in two deaths and injuries to three others. A further rescue was reported in the Townsville region when a truck driver became stranded on his vehicle. An unofficial but reliable source reported 642 mm of rain in 24 hours in a location just to the west of Townsville on 23 January. Falls of up to 200 mm were widespread in this region. Lifeguard authorities in the Sydney region reported five drownings between Newcastle and Wollongong as the remnant LLCC of the tropical LOW intensified as a mid-latitude depression off the New South Wales coast over the following weekend (29-30 January), developing a long fetch of gales between it and a high-pressure system located near New Zealand. C. Rainfall Observations ------------------------ Following are some rainfall observations compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang: Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed: CAIRNS AERO (WMO94287 16.9S/145.8E) 106.6 mm [19/00-20/00Z] CARDWELL (WMO94292 18.3S/146.0E) 103.2 mm [19/00-20/00Z] CAIRNS AERO (WMO94287 16.9S/145.8E) 132.2 mm [21/00-22/00Z] INGHAM COMPOSITE (WMO95291 18.7S/146.2E) 143.8 mm [22/00-23/00Z] CHARTERS TOWERS AIRPORT (-------- 20.0S/146.3E) 129.0 mm [22/00-23/00Z] AYR DPI RESEARCH STATION (WMO95295 19.6S/147.4E) 113.6 mm [22/00-23/00Z] GEORGETOWN POST OFFICE (WMO94275 18.3S/143.6E) 106.0 mm [22/00-23/00Z] HAMILTON ISLAND AIRPORT (WMO94368 20.4S/149.0E) 266.0 mm [23/00-24/00Z] PROSERPINE AIRPORT (-------- 20.5S/148.5E) 190.8 mm [23/00-24/00Z] AYR ALVA BEACH (-------- 19.5S/147.5E) 145.2 mm [23/00-24/00Z] MACKAY MO (WMO94367 21.1S/149.2E) 136.0 mm [23/00-24/00Z] AYR DPI RESEARCH STATION (WMO95295 19.6S/147.4E) 116.8 mm [23/00-24/00Z] CHARTERS TOWERS AIRPORT (-------- 20.0S/146.3E) 101.2 mm [23/00-24/00Z] AYR DPI RESEARCH STATION (WMO95295 19.6S/147.4E) 143.4 mm [24/00-25/00Z] INGHAM COMPOSITE (WMO95291 18.67/146.2E) 115.6 mm [25/00-26/00Z] (Report written by Simon Clarke with contributions by Huang Chunliang) ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for January: 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity ** 1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity ** - No warnings were issued on this system by JTWC Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. South Pacific Tropical Activity for January ------------------------------------------- Two tropical cyclones sprang to life in the South Pacific during January. Tropical Cyclone Kerry moved through the islands of Vanuatu early in the month as a fairly weak cyclone, then strengthened to hurricane intensity as it neared the boundary with the Australian Region (160E). Warning responsibility was handed over to Brisbane, and the remainder of Kerry's life for the most part was spent just inside the Australian Region as it trekked southward. The other South Pacific cyclone was the short-lived, weak Tropical Cyclone Lola, which formed at the end of the month and continued for a few days into February. Lola did cause significant agricultural losses on some of the islands in the Kingdom of Tonga. Reports on both Kerry and Lola, authored by Simon Clarke, follow. TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY (TD-05F / TC-08P) 3 - 15 January ------------------------------------------ A. Storm Origins ---------------- Kerry was first identified as a westward-moving depression (TD-05F) to the north of Fiji as early as 3 January 2005. At this time the relatively disorganized cloud mass was located in a favourable environment for further development. Environmental shear was weak and SSTs were 30 C. A 250-hPa prognosis indicated that the subtropical ridge, located just north of TD-05F, was drifting south maintaining low shear and diffluence in the vicinity of TD-05F. By 3 January convection mushroomed close to the low-level circulation and the outlook for the depression to develop further was upgraded to moderate/good by RSMC Fiji. The island of Funafuti (WMO 91643, 8.5S/179.2E), to the north and east of the developing system, picked up 193.8 mm of rain between 03/0000 and 04/0000 UTC. (This information from Huang Chunliang.) The improving trend continued with banding features becoming apparent on satellite imagery, and the first gale warning was issued early on 4 January 2005. Despite a minor short-lived hiccup in development involving displacement of the LLCC to the north of the main CDO, the depression was upgraded to cyclone status at 05/1800 UTC as overall organization improved. Newly-named Tropical Cyclone Kerry was located near 13.3S/171.5E at this time, or about 315 nm northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu, and was moving southwest at about 11 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre were estimated to be about 40 kts. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Despite forecasts of intensification, Kerry remained weak while moving to the southwest and then west-southwest as middle-level dry air was drawn into the northern semicircle, suppressing deep convection around the CDO. Tropical Cyclone Kerry picked up forward speed as it approached Vanuatu, crossing the central part of the island nation between 06/1800 UTC and 07/0000 UTC. Interaction with the larger islands also assisted in keeping Kerry weak (10-min max winds of 40 kts). During its passage through Vanuatu, the centre crossed over Pentecost Island, passed to the north of Ambrym and exited via Malakula. Approximately 4 hours of heavy rains and gusty winds were reported during the morning by a weather observer in Ambae just to the north of where the cyclone crossed with little damage other than shredded leaves and branches. This was typical of the reports of the minor damage reported through the affected islands during Kerry's passage and is not surprising given the intensity and speed of the tropical cyclone. There were no reported casualties. Once clear of Vanuatu, Kerry continued to move west-southwestward at a steady 20-kt pace driven along the northern side of a deep subtropical ridge. The process of intensification commenced as it moved west and closer to the upper-level ridge axis, the centre passing close to the Isles Surprises (New Caledonia territory). By 07/1200 UTC, Kerry was a severe tropical cyclone near 17.8S/163.6E, or approximately 300 nm northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. (Editor's Note: Kerry's winds at this juncture had reached 50 kts--a severe tropical 'storm' by the classification system applied by MFR and JMA. However, a 'severe tropical cyclone' per Australian nomenclature is a cyclone of hurricane intensity.) The system's organisation continued to improve with a cloud-filled eye evident at times. Kerry's westerly motion slowed down in response to a low-level ridge building to its southwest. At this time there was considerable divergence in the available models regarding future movement with some predicting a turn to the west or west-northwest, north of the low-level ridge located to the south, and other models suggesting recurvature ahead of an upper-level trough. At 08/0600 UTC and near 18.3S/160.0E Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry moved into Brisbane's AOR. Peak intensity of 970 hPa and maximum 10-min avg winds of 75 kts were attained near 18.3S/159.3E at 09/1800 UTC, the centre then being located roughly 475 nm northwest of Noumea. Peak intensity was maintained for thirty hours as Kerry commenced a slow track to the south-southeast, progressively weakening under a combination of strong vertical wind shear associated with an approaching upper-level trough and entrainment of drier, cooler air from the southwest. A strong surface ridge eventually pushed a considerably-weakened Kerry to the west-southwest on 13 January 2005 toward Australia's south Queensland coastline. By this stage, the upper-level structure of the cyclone had been completely disrupted due to strong vertical wind shear with the LLCC exposed. Kerry lost cyclone status near 24.5S/159.3E, or about 400 nm east-northeast of Brisbane, at 13/1800 UTC. JTWC's estimated peak 1-min avg MSW of 90 kts is in reasonably close agreement with Brisbane's 10-min avg peak MSW of 75 kts. The remaining exposed LLCC of ex-Kerry proved to be a remarkably resilient feature, moving southward approximately 80 nm off the southern Queensland coast only to be pushed northwards again several days later. The LLCC was still evident in high resolution visible satellite imagery on 20 January, a week after losing tropical cyclone status. It eventually washed out completely to the east of Queensland's Sunshine Coast (near 25.5S/157.0E). Kerry's main influence on Queensland's weather was to strengthen winds along the coastline with the assistance of the strong ridge extending from the high-pressure system to the south. Heavy rains were reported in the Proserpine region on Queensland's central coast on 9 January. Strong winds and associated rough seas along the coast forced the closure of many beaches on the Sunshine and Gold Coasts during the busy school holiday period. However, rainfall totals along the southern part of the Queensland coast were not particularly significant. A satellite image of Kerry can be found at: with further images showing the path of Kerry across the Coral Sea here: A graphic displaying the track of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry may be found at the following link: C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ As noted above, minor damage was incurred when Tropical Cyclone Kerry moved through the islands of the Republic of Vanuatu. There were no other reports of damage associated with this cyclone. Also, fortunately there were no reported casualties. (Report written by Simon Clarke) TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA (TD-06F) 26 January - 2 February ------------------------------------------- A. Storm Origins ---------------- Lola was the third tropical cyclone of the season to form in the Southwest Pacific for the 2004/05 season. The storm was first identified as a tropical disturbance (TD-06F) in the intertropical convergence zone near the islands of Vanuatu on 27 January 2005. The depression's LLCC was detached from the convection, making its centre difficult to locate. However, banding was already evident detached from the LLCC in its northern and eastern quadrants. The LLCC moved steadily toward the east at 5 kts into an improving environment of active surface convergence, good upper-level diffluence at 250 hPa, and decreasing westerly shear. Also, SSTs were high (approximately 30 C). On its approach to the northern islands of Fiji, TD-06F accelerated and commenced a southeastward motion of 15 kts, passing over Vanua Levu in Fiji's Northern Division on 30 January. An area of gales moved with the depression and rough seas were reported. However, there was no significant damage associated with TD-06F in Fiji. At this time, TD-06F exhibited an asymmetrical shape and most global models had little faith in developing TD-06F further. However, by 31/1400 UTC the previously exposed LLCC had slipped underneath the developing CDO. With a CP estimated at 992 hPa, TD-06F was upgraded to cyclone status near 21.8S/176.8W and named Lola. This location is also approximately 100 nm west-southwest of Tongatapu. B. Synoptic History ------------------- Tropical Cyclone Lola continued to track to the southeast with slight intensification (minimum CP of 990 hPa and peak 10-min avg winds of 40 kts). However, dry air intrusion from the southwest quadrant and strong westerly winds aloft hindered any further development and the LLCC was soon re-exposed. Lola was downgraded at 02/0000 UTC near 25.2S/176.6W, or about 250 nm south-southwest of Tongatapu. This position represents a relocation of over 100 nm westward from the previous warning position. The remnant depression slowed down in response to the ridge of high pressure to the south and persisted as a westward-moving and fully-exposed depression for several days. A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Lola may be found at the following link: C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------- Lola brought strong winds to parts of central and southern Tonga. Squally winds and localised heavy rains were reported from Ha'apai, Nomuka and Tongatapu Group, but there were no reports of significant structural damage. However, significant crop losses were reported with heavy windfalls of fruit, especially of mangoes, tava, breadfruit, avocados and bananas. Tongatapu, reported as having its first bumper crop mango season since 1998, was left with "carpets of mangoes" under the trees. Lola's life was short and relatively inconsequential. In fact, the JTWC did not recognise Lola as a tropical cyclone in spite of warnings issued by RSMC Fiji. (Report written by Simon Clarke) ************************************************************************* SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't, I wanted to include them. (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information --------------------------------------- Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be retrieved from the following FTP site: Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance messages may be found at the following URL: Links are also included to websites with further information about the U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air- craft Operations Center. (2) Archived Advisories ----------------------- All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories, strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an example), the archived products can be found at: Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at the following URL: JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterry website: On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but if I learn of any, I will add them to this list. (3) Satellite Imagery --------------------- Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites, courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The links are: On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is located in the lower left portion of the screen. I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list. ************************************************************************* EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. ************************************************************************* AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive these via e-mail, please send me a message.) Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris Landsea, and John Diebolt): Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2004 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2004 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. PREPARED BY Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South China Sea) E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific) E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South China Sea) E-mail: huangchunliang@hotmail.com Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific) E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Posted: 04.07.05 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com