GARY PADGETT'S GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - JANUARY 2005 !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!! ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor- ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized. The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com- pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me each month a table comparing the maximum intensities assigned to each cyclone from all the applicable warning centers in the Northwest Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so reliably provide. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Storm KULAP (01W / 0501) 13 - 19 Jan ************************************************************************* Storm Name: KULAP Cyclone Number: 01W Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0501 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 13 1800 5.8 N 150.7 E 25 05 JAN 14 0000 6.0 N 150.2 E 1004 25 30 05 JAN 14 0600 5.7 N 148.0 E 1002 30 30 05 JAN 14 1200 6.0 N 147.1 E 1000 30 30 05 JAN 14 1800 6.5 N 147.1 E 998 35 30 JMA: 7.0N/147.8E 05 JAN 15 0000 7.5 N 146.3 E 998 35 30 05 JAN 15 0600 7.8 N 147.4 E 998 40 30 05 JAN 15 1200 9.0 N 147.4 E 996 45 35 JMA: 9.5N/146.6E 05 JAN 15 1800 10.4 N 146.9 E 994 45 40 JMA: 11.2N/146.9E 05 JAN 16 0000 11.5 N 147.0 E 994 45 40 05 JAN 16 0600 12.4 N 146.8 E 992 45 40 05 JAN 16 1200 13.1 N 146.9 E 992 45 40 JMA: 13.2N/145.8E 05 JAN 16 1800 13.5 N 146.9 E 990 50 45 05 JAN 17 0000 14.3 N 147.9 E 990 45 45 JMA: 14.1N/147.2E 05 JAN 17 0600 15.1 N 148.8 E 990 55 45 05 JAN 17 1200 15.7 N 149.9 E 990 55 45 05 JAN 17 1800 16.2 N 150.6 E 985 60 50 05 JAN 18 0000 16.7 N 151.5 E 985 60 50 05 JAN 18 0600 17.3 N 152.7 E 985 60 50 05 JAN 18 1200 17.9 N 153.7 E 985 60 50 05 JAN 18 1800 19.0 N 155.8 E 990 45 45 05 JAN 19 0000 18.4 N 154.4 E 1000 35 JMA warnings 05 JAN 19 0600 19.0 N 155.0 E 1002 25 Extratropical Note: Following is the MSW comparison table compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang: ============================================================ == Severe Tropical Storm 01W/KULAP/0501 (Jan 13-19, 2005) == ============================================================ TCWC Storm ID PEAK MSW (kt) -------------------------------------------------------------- JTWC Tropical Storm 01W (KULAP) 60 JMA Typhoon 0501 (KULAP) 50 NMCC Severe Tropical Storm 0501 (KULAP) 50 HKO Severe Tropical Storm KULAP (0501) --* CWB Weak Typhoon 0501 (KULAP) 50 Note 1: In the title line the storm grade was adopted based on the classification of the most "radical" TCWC. Also, all the storm names/ numbers available to me have been referenced. In addition, the starting date points to the one when the system was initially upgraded to TD status by whatever TCWC, while the ending date represents the one when the storm was finally classified as a tropical system by whatever TCWC. Note 2 (*): HKO never issued any real-time warnings on this storm, which remained outside their AOR throughout its life. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor- ological Centre for the basin. The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and 3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity; hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone (01B) 08 - 10 Jan Cyclonic Storm HIBARU (02B / BOB0501) 13 - 17 Jan ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 01B Basin: NIO IMD Cyclonic Storm Number: None Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 08 1800 5.2 N 83.5 E 25 05 JAN 09 0000 5.5 N 83.1 E 25 05 JAN 09 0600 6.1 N 83.4 E 25 05 JAN 09 1200 6.4 N 83.5 E 25 05 JAN 09 1800 6.4 N 83.5 E 25 05 JAN 10 0000 6.5 N 83.2 E 25 05 JAN 10 0600 6.8 N 83.2 E 20 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: HIBARU Cyclone Number: 02B Basin: NIO IMD Cyclonic Storm Number: BOB0501 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 13 1200 5.5 N 87.0 E 25 IMD bulletins 05 JAN 14 0300 5.5 N 87.0 E 30 05 JAN 14 1200 5.5 N 87.0 E 30 05 JAN 14 1800 5.0 N 87.1 E 35 05 JAN 15 0000 5.2 N 86.6 E 35 05 JAN 15 0600 5.1 N 86.4 E 35 05 JAN 15 1200 4.9 N 86.5 E 35 05 JAN 15 1800 4.6 N 86.4 E 35 IMD: 5.5N/87.0E 05 JAN 16 0000 4.4 N 86.2 E 35 IMD: 5.5N/87.0E 05 JAN 16 0600 4.2 N 86.3 E 35 05 JAN 16 1200 4.5 N 86.2 E 35 IMD: 5.5N/86.5E 05 JAN 16 1800 5.1 N 85.6 E 30 05 JAN 17 0000 4.7 N 85.2 E 25 05 JAN 17 0300 5.0 N 86.0 E 30 IMD bulletins 05 JAN 17 1200 5.0 N 86.0 E 25 Note: IMD's assessment of Hibaru's peak intensity was also 35 kts. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Disturbance (MFR-07) 04 - 05 Jan Intense Tropical Cyclone ERNEST (MFR-08 / 12S) 17 - 25 Jan Tropical Storm DAREN (MFR-09 / 11S) 17 - 22 Jan Tropical Storm FELAPI (MFR-11) 26 Jan - 02 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 07 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 04 0600 20.4 S 40.7 E 1000 25 05 JAN 04 1200 21.0 S 41.4 E 1000 25 Locally 30 kts E quads 05 JAN 04 1800 21.8 S 42.8 E 998 30 05 JAN 05 0000 23.0 S 44.5 E 25 Inland 05 JAN 05 0600 23.9 S 46.8 E 20 Note: No CP value was given in the last two bulletins. The MSW of 20 kts at 05/0600 UTC is estimated. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: ERNEST Cyclone Number: 12S Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 08 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 17 0600 9.6 S 57.6 E 1000 25 05 JAN 17 1200 9.5 S 56.8 E 1005 25 05 JAN 19 0600 9.5 S 48.0 E 1005 20 Bulletins re-initiated 05 JAN 19 1200 11.1 S 49.3 E 1004 25 05 JAN 19 1800 12.4 S 47.9 E 1004 25 05 JAN 20 0000 12.3 S 46.5 E 1002 25 05 JAN 20 0600 12.7 S 45.4 E 993 45 40 05 JAN 20 1200 13.5 S 44.1 E 985 50 05 JAN 20 1800 14.1 S 43.3 E 970 65 65 05 JAN 21 0000 15.0 S 42.7 E 970 65 05 JAN 21 0600 16.2 S 42.0 E 970 65 65 05 JAN 21 1200 16.9 S 41.7 E 970 65 05 JAN 21 1800 18.0 S 41.9 E 963 90 70 05 JAN 22 0000 19.6 S 42.0 E 955 80 05 JAN 22 0600 20.6 S 41.9 E 940 100 90 05 JAN 22 1200 21.9 S 42.1 E 940 90 05 JAN 22 1800 23.0 S 42.4 E 941 100 90 05 JAN 23 0000 23.9 S 42.5 E 950 80 05 JAN 23 0600 24.5 S 43.5 E 955 90 75 05 JAN 23 1200 25.6 S 44.9 E 965 70 Near S tip Madagascar 05 JAN 23 1800 27.3 S 46.4 E 980 60 55 05 JAN 24 0000 28.3 S 47.9 E 985 50 05 JAN 24 0600 29.0 S 49.3 E 987 50 05 JAN 24 1200 31.1 S 52.7 E 988 50 Extratropical 05 JAN 24 1800 32.5 S 56.0 E 988 65 05 JAN 25 0000 35.5 S 61.0 E 990 65 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: DAREN Cyclone Number: 11S Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 09 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 17 1200 9.3 S 84.8 E 1004 25 05 JAN 17 1800 9.8 S 83.5 E 1001 25 Locally 30 kts S quads 05 JAN 18 0000 10.2 S 83.6 E 1000 35 25 JTWC: 11.6S/82.8E 05 JAN 18 0600 11.2 S 83.4 E 1002 35 25 05 JAN 18 1200 11.4 S 82.3 E 1001 25 05 JAN 18 1800 11.3 S 81.0 E 1001 45 25 JTWC: 12.4S/80.9E 05 JAN 19 0000 12.1 S 79.7 E 1000 25 05 JAN 19 0600 13.3 S 76.9 E 997 40 30 05 JAN 19 1200 14.1 S 75.5 E 990 40 05 JAN 19 1800 15.3 S 73.8 E 990 40 40 05 JAN 20 0000 16.3 S 72.7 E 988 40 05 JAN 20 0600 15.8 S 71.8 E 988 35 40 05 JAN 20 1200 16.0 S 70.5 E 990 40 05 JAN 20 1800 16.2 S 69.0 E 995 25 35 05 JAN 21 0000 16.4 S 67.8 E 997 30 05 JAN 21 0600 16.8 S 66.4 E 998 30 05 JAN 21 1200 16.9 S 64.8 E 998 30 05 JAN 21 1800 17.0 S 62.8 E 1001 25 Locally 30 kts S quads 05 JAN 22 0000 17.1 S 61.3 E 1001 25 05 JAN 22 0600 17.4 S 59.3 E 1006 25 05 JAN 22 1200 17.5 S 57.9 E 1007 25 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: FELAPI Cyclone Number: None Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 11 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 26 1200 20.5 S 40.5 E 1004 20 Locally 25 kts 05 JAN 27 0000 22.0 S 40.8 E 1001 25 05 JAN 27 0600 22.0 S 41.0 E 998 30 05 JAN 27 1200 22.1 S 41.3 E 998 30 05 JAN 27 1800 22.1 S 42.0 E 996 35 05 JAN 28 0000 22.4 S 42.9 E 995 35 05 JAN 28 0600 23.4 S 43.4 E 995 35 05 JAN 28 1200 24.0 S 44.0 E 997 30 Inland in Madagascar 05 JAN 28 1800 24.8 S 44.5 E 1001 25 05 JAN 29 0600 26.1 S 45.8 E 1000 25 Over water 05 JAN 29 1200 26.3 S 46.5 E 1000 25 Locally 30 kts S quads 05 JAN 29 1800 26.1 S 46.7 E 999 25 05 JAN 30 0000 25.6 S 47.6 E 998 25 05 JAN 30 1200 23.5 S 49.0 E 999 25 Relocated 05 JAN 30 1800 22.7 S 50.8 E 999 25 05 JAN 31 0000 23.0 S 50.8 E 996 30 05 JAN 31 0600 22.0 S 50.5 E 1000 25 05 JAN 31 1200 23.1 S 50.7 E 1000 25 05 FEB 01 1200 27.0 S 49.5 E 999 35 Subtropical depression 05 FEB 01 1800 27.8 S 49.8 E 999 30 05 FEB 02 0000 28.7 S 49.7 E 1000 30 05 FEB 02 0600 29.1 S 50.0 E 1000 30 05 FEB 02 1200 29.8 S 50.4 E 1000 30 05 FEB 02 1800 30.9 S 51.5 E 1000 30 Note: No warnings were issued on this system by JTWC. Satellite classi- fication bulletins from SAB support a system of minimal tropical storm intensity. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - Longitude 90E to 135E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the Australian centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND (07S) 31 Dec - 03 Jan Tropical Cyclone SALLY (09S) 07 - 10 Jan Tropical LOW (10S) 13 - 19 Jan Tropical Cyclone TIM (13S) 23 - 26 Jan ************************************************************************* Storm Name: RAYMOND Cyclone Number: 07S Basin: AUW (Name assigned by the Perth TCWC) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 04 DEC 31 0400 14.4 S 121.4 E 1003 30 04 DEC 31 1000 14.8 S 121.3 E 1002 30 04 DEC 31 1600 15.0 S 121.2 E 998 35 30 JTWC-18Z: 15.6S/120.6E 04 DEC 31 2200 15.0 S 121.2 E 998 30 05 JAN 01 0400 14.3 S 121.6 E 998 35 30 05 JAN 01 1000 14.6 S 122.1 E 999 30 05 JAN 01 1600 14.6 S 122.6 E 999 35 30 05 JAN 01 2200 14.6 S 123.0 E 999 30 05 JAN 02 0400 14.0 S 123.6 E 990 50 45 05 JAN 02 1000 14.0 S 124.3 E 990 45 05 JAN 02 1600 14.4 S 126.5 E 995 45 30 Inland - See note 05 JAN 03 0100 15.3 S 129.3 E 25 05 JAN 03 0600 17.5 S 126.7 E 30 Final JTWC warning Note: The JTWC position for 02/1800 UTC was 15.2S/124.3E, over 2 degrees west of the relocated Perth position at 02/1600 UTC. The final Perth warning at 02/1600 UTC stated that Raymond was moving east at 15 kts, which is reflected in the 03/0100 UTC position. It appears almost certain that the two agencies were not tracking the same entity. The final JTWC warning states that Raymond's remnants were tracking south- eastward at 16 kts. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: SALLY Cyclone Number: 09S Basin: AUW (Name assigned by the Perth TCWC) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 07 0400 11.6 S 100.5 E 1004 30 05 JAN 07 1000 12.4 S 100.7 E 1002 30 05 JAN 07 1600 12.6 S 101.1 E 1001 30 05 JAN 07 2200 13.7 S 101.0 E 1000 30 05 JAN 08 0400 13.7 S 100.3 E 990 35 45 05 JAN 08 1000 13.8 S 100.0 E 990 40 05 JAN 08 1600 13.9 S 99.8 E 990 40 40 05 JAN 08 2200 14.4 S 99.4 E 995 35 05 JAN 09 0400 14.7 S 99.0 E 990 40 40 05 JAN 09 1000 15.2 S 98.7 E 988 45 05 JAN 09 1600 15.6 S 98.1 E 990 35 45 05 JAN 09 2200 15.9 S 97.5 E 994 35 05 JAN 10 0100 16.2 S 96.9 E 998 30 05 JAN 10 0400 16.5 S 96.3 E 1002 20 30 JTWC-06Z: 16.4S/99.1E ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 10S Basin: AUW Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 13 2200 14.0 S 123.0 3 1000 25 05 JAN 14 0400 13.3 S 123.0 E 1002 25 05 JAN 15 0000 14.0 S 120.1 E 1001 30 Perip. gales SW quad 05 JAN 15 0400 14.1 S 119.3 E 1000 30 05 JAN 15 1000 14.0 S 118.1 E 1000 30 05 JAN 15 1600 14.0 S 116.8 E 1000 35 30 JTWC-18Z: 15.4S/116.5E 05 JAN 15 2200 14.0 S 116.0 E 998 30 05 JAN 16 0400 14.0 S 114.8 E 998 35 30 JTWC-06Z: 15.7S/113.6E 05 JAN 16 1000 14.5 S 113.2 E 998 30 05 JAN 16 1600 14.8 S 112.0 E 998 30 30 JTWC-18Z: 15.7S/111.4E 05 JAN 16 2200 14.8 S 110.5 E 1000 30 05 JAN 17 0000 15.0 S 109.8 E 1000 25 05 JAN 17 0400 15.0 S 109.0 E 1000 25 25 JTWC-06Z: 15.5S/107.3E 05 JAN 18 0400 14.0 S 102.8 E 1004 20 05 JAN 19 0400 14.4 S 96.2 E 1004 20 Note: The BoM Perth warnings indicated the presence of gales well- removed from the center in the southwestern quadrant. The WMO Region V definition of a tropical depression (or LOW) allows for the presence of gales if they are not occurring near the center. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: TIM Cyclone Number: 13S Basin: AUW (Name assigned by the Perth TCWC) Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 23 0900 15.0 S 110.2 E 995 30 05 JAN 23 1300 15.3 S 109.9 E 990 40 05 JAN 23 1600 15.5 S 109.7 E 990 35 40 05 JAN 23 2200 15.7 S 109.0 E 988 45 05 JAN 24 0400 15.8 S 108.4 E 988 35 45 05 JAN 24 1000 16.0 S 107.7 E 990 40 05 JAN 24 1600 16.3 S 106.6 E 990 35 40 05 JAN 24 2200 16.4 S 105.7 E 992 40 05 JAN 25 0400 16.4 S 104.5 E 992 30 40 JTWC-06Z: 16.5S/103.7E 05 JAN 25 1000 16.8 S 103.6 E 998 30 05 JAN 26 0200 16.6 S 98.8 E 25 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - Longitude 135E to 160E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Darwin, Northern Territory; Brisbane, Queensland; and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the Australian centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical LOW 19 - 25 Jan ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: AUE Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 19 0600 13.0 S 143.2 E 1003 25 Over land - See note 05 JAN 19 1200 13.0 S 143.5 E 1005 25 05 JAN 19 1800 13.6 S 142.6 E 1000 25 05 JAN 20 0000 13.2 S 142.6 E 1004 25 05 JAN 20 0600 13.4 S 142.6 E 1004 25 05 JAN 20 1200 13.7 S 142.5 E 1005 25 05 JAN 20 1800 13.7 S 142.5 E 1002 25 05 JAN 21 0000 14.3 S 142.6 E 1004 25 05 JAN 23 1600 18.5 S 147.0 E 999 40 Over water 05 JAN 24 0000 19.0 S 147.7 E 998 40 05 JAN 24 0600 19.5 S 150.5 E 1000 40 05 JAN 24 1200 19.0 S 148.5 E 1002 40 05 JAN 24 1800 18.6 S 147.5 E 998 40 05 JAN 25 0000 19.0 S 148.0 E 998 40 05 JAN 25 0600 19.0 S 148.0 E 998 40 05 JAN 25 1200 18.5 S 148.0 E 1000 40 05 JAN 25 1800 18.0 S 148.0 E 997 30 Note: From 19/0600 through 21/0000 UTC the center of this LOW was located inland over the Cape York Peninsula. The MSW values given above are estimates, based on the fact that the LOW was located over land. Even though the LOW appeared better-organized on 21 January, it was moving southward over land and was not forecast at the time to move over the ocean, so tropical cyclone advices were discontinued. According to Jeff Callaghan, the center moved down the peninsula, reaching a point near Georgetown (18.3S/143.6E) where it became elongated toward the East Coast. The large band of heavy rain near Townsville was in a area of backing winds with height (warm-air advection) and this was where a new center formed. During the overwater portion of the system's history (23-25 January), gales were forecast to be occurring but not near the center in the manner of a true tropical cyclone. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji, and Wellington, New Zealand. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from the Southern Hemisphere centres and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone KERRY (05F / 08P) 03 - 15 Jan Tropical Cyclone LOLA (06F) 26 Jan - 02 Feb ************************************************************************* Storm Name: KERRY Cyclone Number: 08P Basin: SPA/AUE Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 05F Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 03 0600 8.0 S 176.0 E 1002 20 05 JAN 03 2100 9.5 S 175.5 E 1000 25 05 JAN 04 0600 9.5 S 175.3 E 1000 25 05 JAN 04 1200 10.0 S 174.5 E 1000 30 05 JAN 04 1800 10.0 S 174.0 E 1000 30 05 JAN 05 0000 10.5 S 173.5 E 998 35 30 05 JAN 05 0600 11.7 S 172.9 E 998 30 05 JAN 05 1200 12.1 S 172.9 E 997 35 30 05 JAN 05 1800 13.3 S 171.5 E 995 40 05 JAN 06 0000 13.6 S 171.2 E 987 40 45 05 JAN 06 0600 14.6 S 170.3 E 987 45 05 JAN 06 1200 15.2 S 169.3 E 987 40 45 05 JAN 06 1800 15.7 S 168.4 E 990 40 Crossing Vanuatu 05 JAN 07 0000 16.4 S 166.7 E 990 35 40 05 JAN 07 0600 17.2 S 164.9 E 987 45 05 JAN 07 1200 17.8 S 163.6 E 985 50 50 05 JAN 07 1800 17.6 S 162.3 E 975 60 05 JAN 08 0000 18.0 S 161.0 E 970 75 65 05 JAN 08 0600 18.3 S 160.0 E 970 65 05 JAN 08 1200 18.5 S 159.6 E 970 75 65 Brisbane warnings 05 JAN 08 1800 18.4 S 159.6 E 970 65 05 JAN 09 0000 18.3 S 159.4 E 970 75 65 05 JAN 09 0600 18.3 S 159.4 E 970 65 05 JAN 09 1200 18.5 S 159.3 E 970 90 75 05 JAN 09 1800 18.3 S 159.3 E 960 75 05 JAN 10 0000 18.3 S 159.0 E 960 90 75 05 JAN 10 0600 18.6 S 159.0 E 960 75 05 JAN 10 1200 19.2 S 159.3 E 970 90 75 05 JAN 10 1800 19.5 S 159.5 E 970 65 05 JAN 11 0000 19.3 S 159.0 E 970 60 65 05 JAN 11 0600 20.0 S 159.4 E 975 60 05 JAN 11 1200 20.2 S 159.8 E 980 40 55 05 JAN 11 1800 20.3 S 159.8 E 980 55 05 JAN 12 0000 20.9 S 160.0 E 985 35 50 05 JAN 12 0600 21.3 S 160.3 E 987 45 05 JAN 12 1200 22.0 S 160.2 E 987 45 05 JAN 12 1800 22.1 S 160.3 E 987 45 05 JAN 13 0000 23.4 S 160.4 E 987 45 05 JAN 13 0600 23.6 S 159.9 E 987 45 05 JAN 13 1200 24.2 S 159.5 E 990 40 05 JAN 13 1800 24.5 S 159.3 E 995 35 Extratropical 05 JAN 14 0000 24.8 S 158.5 E 995 40 05 JAN 14 0600 25.5 S 158.0 E 995 40 05 JAN 14 1200 25.8 S 158.0 E 995 40 05 JAN 14 1800 26.3 S 157.6 E 995 40 05 JAN 15 0000 26.6 S 156.7 E 995 40 05 JAN 15 0600 26.9 S 156.6 E 995 40 05 JAN 15 1200 27.0 S 156.3 E 1006 30 ************************************************************************* Storm Name: LOLA Cyclone Number: None Basin: SPA Fiji Tropical Disturbance Number: 06F Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 05 JAN 26 0630 15.0 S 163.0 E 1000 20 05 JAN 27 0000 18.0 S 168.0 E 1001 20 05 JAN 27 0600 18.5 S 169.0 E 1000 20 05 JAN 28 2100 16.5 S 172.5 E 998 25 05 JAN 29 0900 17.0 S 174.0 E 998 25 05 JAN 29 2100 15.5 S 175.5 E 998 25 05 JAN 30 0600 16.1 S 178.4 E 997 30 Peripheral gales 05 JAN 30 1200 18.5 S 179.5 E 997 30 05 JAN 30 1800 18.0 S 179.0 W 993 30 05 JAN 31 0000 19.5 S 179.0 W 993 30 05 JAN 31 0600 20.6 S 177.9 W 993 30 05 JAN 31 1200 21.8 S 176.8 W 992 40 05 JAN 31 1800 22.7 S 176.5 W 990 40 05 FEB 01 0000 23.5 S 175.6 W 994 35 05 FEB 01 0600 24.5 S 175.2 W 994 35 05 FEB 01 1200 25.1 S 175.1 W 995 35 Wellington warnings 05 FEB 01 1800 25.1 S 174.5 W 995 35 05 FEB 02 0000 25.2 S 176.6 W 998 35 Extratropical 05 FEB 02 0600 25.0 S 176.0 W 998 35 05 FEB 02 1800 24.5 S 177.0 W 998 25 Note: No warnings were issued by JTWC on Tropical Cyclone Lola. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* !!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!! To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/ advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and analysts at the several warning centers. For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere: SPECIAL NOTE: Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following websites: PREPARED BY: Gary Padgett garyp@alaweb.com SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY: Michael V. Padua michaelpadua@hotmail.com webmaster@typhoon2000.ph Huang Chunliang huangchunliang@hotmail.com ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Published: 01.19.05 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com