MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY JANUARY, 2008 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) ************************************************************************* !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!! VERY IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM AUTHOR - PLEASE READ !!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I know everyone is wondering where the summaries for October, November, and December are. I plan to get them out, but since they are so late already, I decided it would be better to go ahead and write summaries for the more recent months and try to get them sent out in a timely fashion, beginning with January, 2008. The past two months have been very difficult for me personally and emotionally, and I have seriously considered dropping the summaries altogether, just continuing to produce the cyclone tracks file. If the summaries are to continue, they are going to have to be scaled back significantly from the length and amount of detail they have contained at times in the past. I do not have the time to scan through dozens of Tropical Weather Outlooks and warnings/discussions looking for details of such things as: (1) pre-warning history of cyclones (2) all the minor ups and downs in intensity (3) all the atmospheric weather systems affecting the steering of cyclones Without attempting to elaborate more here, the summaries I have written for the January Southwest Indian and South Pacific cyclones exemplify the level of detail I shall be including in future summaries. Also, the summaries will concentrate on supplementing information already available online. For instance, BoM already has an adequate and fairly detailed summary of Tropical Cyclone Helen available, so I have written a very brief synopsis of the storm and referred readers to the BoM report. Over the past six months or so, Derrick Herndon has been sending me increasing numbers of observations associated with tropical cyclones along with occasional analyses of intensity. I plan to include all the information Derrick sends essentially verbatim. For some cyclones (especially in the Atlantic), the Wikipedia tropical cyclone writers have produced very detailed reports, and I will not try to cover those storms in much detail. But many of the Wikipedia reports are currently rather sketchy (e.g., for all the January cyclones), so those systems I will attempt to cover more fully. Kevin Boyle will continue to help me write summaries for the Northwest Pacific basin, but Simon Clarke has had to "resign" due to increased demands made upon his time by his job. (Simon has written reports for most of the South Pacific and Coral Sea cyclones for the past five years.) Due to the fact that so much information on Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical cyclones is readily available in the form of NHC's and CPHC's monthly summaries, archives of all the advisory text and graphic products, and the usually quite detailed Wikipedia reports, I will in general not be covering those basins in much detail, thus giving me more time to help Kevin with Northwest Pacific storms. Hopefully this will keep us from falling so many months behind during the Northern Hemisphere rush. ************************************************************************* JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS --> South Pacific cyclones affect Vanuatu and Fiji --> Tropical cyclone strikes Madagascar --> Australia's Northern Territory affected by tropical cyclone ************************************************************************* WIKIPEDIA TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all tropical cyclones may be found at the following links: For some storms more detailed reports have been prepared. In those cases I will include the specific links in the reports for the applicable tropical cyclones. ************************************************************************* ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for January: No tropical cyclones Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida: discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Atlantic Tropical Activity for January -------------------------------------- A non-tropical LOW formed on 26 December in the mid-Atlantic near 27N/42W. Over the next few days the system drifted eastward and gradually acquired some subtropical characteristics. At 1800 UTC on 29 December the LOW was centered near 28N/38W, or roughly 1000 nm southwest of the Azores. A Special Tropical Disturbance Statement was issued by NHC on the afternoon of the 29th, indicating that subtropical storm development was a possibility. The LOW appeared to be quite well- organized, and was likely on the verge of being officially classified as a subtropical storm (which would have been named Pablo), but during the next couple of days the convection became less organized and no name was ever assigned. Several of the FSU Cyclone Phase Space runs depicted the system as shallow warm-core, and one model had it as moderate warm-core. Drifting buoy 62901 reported a pressure of 1004.6 mb at 31/0000 UTC very near the low-level center. Also, an ASCAT pass around the same time revealed a few 45-kt wind vectors near the swath edge in the northwestern semicircle, where the pressure gradient would be tightest due to high pressure centered to the northwest. The weakening LOW drifted southward during the first two days of January before dissipating. (Note: This was primarily a December system, but since the summary for that month has not yet been issued, I decided to cover it here.) ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for January: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for January: 1 tropical depression ** 1 tropical storm ++ ** - classified as a tropical depression by JMA only ++ - classified as a tropical storm by JTWC only Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). A very special thanks to Michael for the assistance he so reliably provides. In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their area of warning responsibility. Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for January ----------------------------------------------- The development of a January tropical storm in the Northwest Pacific basin is not an uncommon event, having occurred four times within the past ten years, the last one being Tropical Storm Kulap in January, 2005. In January, 2008, a tropical depression formed in the South China Sea on 13 January and was upgraded to a minimal tropical storm for about 18 hours on the 14th by JTWC. No other warning agency regarded this system as a tropical storm. A short report on Tropical Storm 01W, written by Kevin Boyle, follows. On 22 January another LOW was elevated to weak tropical depression status by JMA in the same general area. The system drifted slowly westward, and was reported as a 30-kt tropical depression by JMA at 23/0000 UTC near 10.0N/113.2E, but in the next warning it was downgraded to a low-pressure area. The system continued to drift westward and was last referenced at 23/1800 UTC near 10N/110E. No track for this system was included in the January cyclone tracks file. TROPICAL STORM (TC-01W) 13 - 18 January ----------------------------------- The first tropical cyclone of 2008 in the Northwest Pacific originated from a near-equatorial trough situated over southern Micronesia. It was first identified as a LOW on BoM charts on 7 January. The disturbance drifted on a west-northwesterly course for several days while slowly organizing. JTWC issued the first STWO at 0600 UTC 11 January prior to the system's passage across the Philippines on 12 January. The first warning on Tropical Depression 01W was issued at 13/0600 UTC after the centre emerged over the South China Sea. Initially moving towards the west-northwest, TD-01W turned onto a southwesterly heading in response to a surge in the northeast monsoon. It reached its maximum intensity of 35 kts at 14/0000 UTC. However, the system soon began to weaken and was downgraded back to a tropical depression at 14/1800 UTC. TD-01W continued southwestwards, and as it appeared to be dissipating in a region of moderate shear and over cooler SSTs, JTWC released the final warning at 15/0600 UTC. Warnings were resumed at 15/1800 UTC based on a surface report of 25 kts and redevelopment of convection west of the LLCC. However, TD-01W soon lost all convection and organization, and the final warning was issued at 16/1200 UTC. JMA never classified this system as a tropical storm, therefore, no name was assigned. The highest 10-min MSW estimated by this agency was 30 kts with a minimum CP of 1004 mb. The remnant circulation of TS-01W meandered slowly west to west-southwestwards before dissipating close to the Malaysian coastline on 18 January. There were no reports of damages or casualties associated with Tropical Storm 01W. (Report written by Kevin Boyle) ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for January: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for January: 1 tropical disturbance 1 moderate tropical storm 2 tropical cyclones Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January ---------------------------------------------------- Three named tropical storms roamed waters of the Southwest Indian Ocean during January, 2008--Tropical Storm Elnus and Tropical Cyclones Fame and Gula. Elnus and Fame formed in the Mozambique Channel with Fame striking northwestern Madagascar as a tropical cyclone (hurricane). Tropical Cyclone Gula was a more intense storm which formed farther east and passed southward east of Mauritius and La Reunion. Reports on the three named systems follow. Another system was tracked briefly on 8 January and numbered as Tropical Disturbance 07 by MFR. This disturbance was followed, beginning on the 7th, from east of Tromelin southward to a point west of Mauritius. Central sustained winds were never estimated higher than 20 kts, and no track was included for this system in the companion tracks file. A track may be found on MFR's website: By clicking on the link "Saison cyclonique en cours", links to the individual disturbances may be found. TROPICAL STORM ELNUS (MFR-06 / TC-09S) 30 December - 5 January ------------------------------------------- Elnus: contributed by the Seychelles Tropical Storm Elnus was a minimal tropical storm which formed in the central Mozambique Channel at the end of December and drifted south- southeastward through the southern Channel without affecting any land areas. MFR issued the first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 06 at 1200 UTC on 30 December, placing the 25-kt system approximately 375 nm east-northeast of Beira, Mozambique. The disturbance gradually became better organized and was upgraded to tropical depression status (30 kts) at 0600 UTC 31 December. JTWC issued their first warning on TC-09S six hours later, estimating the 1-min avg MSW at 35 kts. MFR upgraded Tropical Depression 06 to moderate tropical storm status at 0000 UTC on 1 January, 2008, with the center located about 350 nm east of Beira. The Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre in Madagascar assigned the name Elnus to the storm. Based on the MFR warnings, Elnus was a small tropical storm with gale-force winds confined to a 20-nm radius from the center, extending out to 70 nm in the southeastern quadrant. The estimated minimum CP was 994 hPa. For the next few days the tropical storm moved rather slowly on a south-southeastward course down the Mozambique Channel. MFR never assigned an intensity higher than 35 kts. JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW was 40 kts at 01/1200 UTC and again 24 hours later with a slight weakening indicated in between. SAB rendered a Dvorak rating of T3.5/3.5 at 01/2030 UTC, which suggests that Elnus could have been slightly stronger. The system began weakening on 2 January and was downgraded back to tropical depression status at 02/0600 UTC, and further to a 25-kt tropical disturbance at 1200 UTC 3 January. JTWC issued their final warning on TC-09S at 04/0000 UTC, and MFR deemed ex-Elnus to be extratropical at 04/0600 UTC. The LOW continued to drift toward the south-southeast and MFR issued the final bulletin at 1200 UTC 5 January, placing the center about 200 nm south of Toliara, Madagascar. The following information was sent by Derrick Herndon: "Elnus passed about 40 nm east of Ile Europa on 3 January. The station reported winds of 140@31 kts on the 2nd at 1800 UTC. I have no further obs from this site until 0000 UTC on the 3rd about the time of closest approach when the station reported 997 mb and winds 160@25 kts. So MSLP at this time was about 994 mb." No reports have been received of any damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Storm Elnus. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL CYCLONE FAME (MFR-08 / TC-13S) 24 January - 1 February ------------------------------------------- Fame: contributed by South Africa A. Synoptic History ------------------- MFR initiated warnings on Tropical Disturbance 08 at 0600 UTC on 24 January, placing a weak 25-kt center in the northern Mozambique Channel about 225 nm west-southwest of the northern tip of Madagascar. The system drifted slowly southward for about 24 hours with little in the way of significant development. On the 25th organization increased and the disturbance was classified as a 30-kt tropical depression at 25/1200 UTC. Six hours later the depression was upgraded to tropical storm status with the Meteorological Service of Madagascar assigning the name Fame. At the same time JTWC issued their first warning on TC-13S with the center located about 325 nm north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. At the time Tropical Storm Fame was essentially stationary, and remained so for much of the 26th as it steadily strengthened, reaching 55 kts by 26/1200 UTC (65 kts 1-min avg per JTWC). Late on the 26th Fame commenced a steady southward march toward the western Madagascar coastline. MFR upped the intensity to 60 kts at 0600 UTC 27 January, but JTWC estimated 80 kts (1-min avg) at the same time. (SAB rendered a Dvorak rating of T5.0/5.0 at 0830 UTC.) The severe tropical storm bent slightly to the south-southeast and made landfall around 27/1300 UTC near Besalampy. The 27/1800 UTC warning from MFR indicated that Fame briefly reached the tropical cyclone stage (65 kts 10-min avg) just before landfall in Madagascar. Shortly before landfall, gales extended outward from the center about 40 nm, based on MFR's warning. However, JTWC reported the gale radius at 75 nm. The minimum estimated CP was 972 hPa. Once inland, Fame quickly weakened as it accelerated to the southeast across the big island. By 0600 UTC 29 January the center had reached the Indian Ocean and was re-upgraded to tropical depression status by MFR at 1200 UTC while located approximately 200 nm west-northwest of Reunion Island. At the same time JTWC, which had dropped the system early on the 28th, re-initiated warnings, classifying Fame as a 35-kt tropical storm (1-min avg). Over the next four days Fame moved rather erratically in the same general area, describing a small clockwise loop before moving off to the southeast and weakening. MFR never re-upgraded the system to tropical storm status, maintaining the MSW at 30 kts, but JTWC peaked the system at 45 kts (1-min avg) at 0000 UTC on 31 January, and SAB's Dvorak rating at 30/2030 UTC reached T3.5/3.5, or 55 kts. JTWC issued their final warning at 1200 UTC on 1 February, and six hours later MFR followed suit, placing the depression's center about 275 nm south of Mauritius. One factor which worked to prevent significant re-intensification of Fame was outflow from Tropical Cyclone Gula located to the east. B. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ The following information was sent by Derrick Herndon: "Fame developed just south of Dzaoudzi (FMCZ), an island in the northern portion of the Mozambique Channel. The lowest pressure at the station was 1002 mb at 0200 UTC on the 26th (down from 1008 mb 20 hours earlier). A few hours later at 0600 UTC the station reported winds 330@34 gusting to 45 kts. Fame exhibited a small eye in the microwave with the center 80 nm southwest of the island. "The tiny eye of Fame appeared to pass very close to or over Besalampy on Madagascar. The station reported a pressure of 982.4 mb at 1200 UTC on the 27th. The station did not report any wind information. CPA occurred about 1400 UTC and the station sent an observation at 1500 UTC; however, it did not give any pressure or wind information. By 1800 UTC the pressure had risen to 993.5 mb. Based on the observation of 982 mb with the center still two hours west of Besalampy and the small eye of about 10-15 km, the MSLP prior to landfall was almost certainly lower than 965 mb but perhaps not lower than 950 mb based on the IR presentation." C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Press reports indicate that Tropical Cyclone Fame was responsible for at least 13 deaths in Madagascar. (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA (MFR-09 / TC-14S) 26 January - 3 February ------------------------------------------- Gula: contributed by Swaziland The first bulletin from MFR on a developing tropical disturbance was issued at 1200 UTC 26 January. The system was numbered Tropical Disturbance 09 and was then located about 350 nm east-southeast of Agalega. The disturbance subsequently moved southward as it slowly strengthened. JTWC's first warning on TC-14S was issued at 27/0000 UTC and estimated the 1-min avg MSW at 35 kts. MFR upgraded the disturbance to a 30-kt tropical depression at 27/0600 UTC, and six hours later the system was upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm located approximately 400 nm east-southeast of Agalega. The Meteorological Service of Mauritius named the system Tropical Storm Gula. The initial south to southeasterly motion came to a halt around 0600 UTC 28 January with Gula turning to a very slow west-northwesterly course. The storm continued to strengthen and had become a 75-kt tropical cyclone by 0600 UTC on 29 January. (JTWC had upgraded Gula to 65-kts 1-min avg at 28/1200 UTC.) Gula's peak intensity based on MFR's warnings came at 29/1200 UTC when the estimated MSW reached 85 kts. JTWC's peak MSW (1-min avg) was also 85 kts, but this wasn't until 30/0000 UTC, at which time MFR had reduced the intensity to 75 kts. However, Karl Hoarau pointed out that in JTWC's JMV file (a sort of working "best track" file), the peak MSW had been set to 100 kts at 29/0600 UTC. At the time of its peak intensity Tropical Cyclone Gula was located about 375 nm southeast of Agalega, or about 135 nm north-northeast of the island of St. Brandon. The estimated minimum CP from MFR was 960 hPa. MFR's warnings indicated that gales extended outward only 40 nm from the center, except 80 nm in the southeastern quadrant. (JTWC's warnings reported gales extending outward 90-100 nm in all quadrants.) Tropical Cyclone Gula gradually turned to a west-southwesterly and then southerly track as it began to steadily weaken. The storm passed a short distance east of St. Brandon on the 30th after it had weakened to tropical storm status. After passing St. Brandon, Gula accelerated to the south-southwest, passing a little over 100 nm east of Mauritius on 31 January. MFR had lowered the intensity to 35 kts at 31/1200 UTC, but the storm underwent a modest re-intensification back to 50 kts six hours later. (JTWC's 1-min avg MSW history does not show this re-intensification, but rather a gradual weakening on the 30th and 31st.) Gula was declared extratropical at 1800 UTC on 1 February when located about 480 nm south-southwest of Mauritius. The ex-Gula extratropical gale continued to race toward higher latitudes and was nearing 40S by early on 3 February. No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical Cyclone Guba. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for January: 1 tropical cyclone Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor- dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January ------------------------------------------ As the month of January opened, two systems were being following by BoM Perth. Tropical Cyclone Melanie was weakening off the coast of Western Australia, while gale warnings were being issued for another tropical LOW further west. The gales occurring with this system were monsoon gales in the northern quadrants and the system never acquired the structure of a tropical cyclone. A report and track graphic on TC Melanie prepared by BoM may be found at the following link: Tracking information for these two systems may be found in the global cyclone tracks file for December, 2007. The only tropical cyclone to form between 90E and 135E during the month was Tropical Cyclone Helen, which formed in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and moved eastward, making landfall to the southwest of Darwin. A short report on TC Helen follows. TROPICAL CYCLONE HELEN (TC-10S) 3 - 6 January ------------------------------------------ Tropical Cyclone Helen began as a slow-moving tropical LOW which formed over the Northern Territory's Top End during the closing days of December. The system spent several days inland before moving west- ward into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf in early January. By 4 January the system had strengthened to Tropical Cyclone Helen, and abruptly turned eastward, moving inland southwest of Darwin as a Category 2 cyclone on the Australian Cyclone Severity Scale. Helen moved eastward, quickly weakening back into a tropical LOW which eventually moved out over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf was considered a possibility, but this did not happen. A fairly detailed report prepared by BoM for Tropical Cyclone Helen is already available online and may be accessed at the following link: According to the BoM report, TC Helen was the first system to bring winds of Category 1 strength or higher to the city of Darwin since TC Gretel in April, 1985. Following is some additional information sent to the author by Derrick Herndon: "Charles Point AWS about 24 km WNW of Darwin reported gales for several hours prior to the landfall of Helen. The strongest winds occurred at 16:00 UTC on Jan 4th from the W@45 gusting to 65 kts. A nearby pressure of 992 mb put the MSLP at landfall around 988 mb. The environmental pressure in this region is low at about 1002 mb. The system appeared to be getting better organized just prior to landfall with the development of an eye feature in both microwave and radar imagery. Here is the radar image from BOM's page just after landfall:" (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for January: No tropical cyclones Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor- dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. Northeast Australia/Coral Sea Tropical Activity for January ----------------------------- No tropical cyclones formed within the area from 135E to 160E during January, but a rather vigorous LOW formed during the latter days of December and continued into the first week of January. This system was initially baroclinic but later appeared to be sustaining itself by convection. However, strong upper-level winds prevented it from making a complete transformation to a tropical cyclone, so it appears best described as a hybrid LOW during most of its life. BoM Brisbane initiated gale warnings on a developing LOW at 0000 UTC 27 December with the center estimated to be about 250 nm northeast of Rockhampton, Queens- land. The system moved slowly and erratically, remaining in the same general area for several days. Forecast winds had reached 50 kts by 28/1200 UTC when the LOW was centered about 325 nm east-northeast of Rockhampton. The system maintained this strength for a couple of days and then weakened to 40 kts. (Note that the strong winds were not concentrated near the center as in the manner of a tropical cyclone.) The gale-center meandered slowly northward as it weakened while a new LOW formed well to the east, about 575 nm east-northeast of Brisbane. This new center became the dominant one and moved slowly southwestward, briefly strengthening to 45 kts on 3 January and then weakening. The final gale warning placed a 30-kt LOW center about 165 nm east-northeast of Brisbane at 0400 UTC 4 January. This hybrid storm system had a big impact on Queensland and New South Wales. At Fraser Island significant wave heights of 6 metres were measured, but according to Jeff Callaghan were likely close to 8 metres. Thousands of campers on the island were camped on the beach during the holiday break and had to be evacuated. Michael Bath, near Lismore, New South Wales, reports that in his area the storm produced rainfall over several days exceeding 1000 mm. On Friday, 4 January, some areas received 300 mm in three hours on top of streams and rivers which were already in moderate flood stage. Major flooding was experienced along the Tweed and Richmond Rivers. Michael has placed some pictures of the flooding at the following link: Click on any link dated January 4th to 9th for pictures of the flooding. (A special thanks to Michael Bath and Jeff Callaghan for the information they provided.) ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for January: 3 tropical depressions 1 tropical storm 2 severe tropical cyclones Sources of Information ---------------------- The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated. In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings. South Pacific Tropical Activity for January ------------------------------------------- Six systems were numbered as tropical depressions by RSMC Nadi during January. Three of these became named cyclones--Elisa, Funa and Gene-- with Funa and Gene becoming fairly strong hurricanes. Reports on the three cyclones follow. Of the remaining tropical depressions, JTWC issued no warnings on these systems. Tropical Depression 08F formed on 9 January about 165 nm north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. The system drifted slowly eastward over the next couple of days, but Nadi significantly relocated the center over 200 nm to the east at 2100 UTC on 11 January to a point about 225 nm north-northeast of Viti Levu, Fiji, suggesting that a new, more dominant center had developed. Following this relocation, TD-08F drifted generally in a southerly direction just east of the Dateline, being last referenced at 14/0600 UTC a little over 200 nm east-northeast of Fiji. Tropical Depression 09F was very short-lived, lasting only about 24 hours. Nadi first referenced this system at 2100 UTC on 12 January, placing the center approximately 400 nm southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa. The system moved slowly southward and was dropped from the Tropical Disturbance Summaries after 13/2100 UTC. The peak winds reported in the Fiji bulletins for these depressions were only 25 kts. Tracks for TD-08F and TD-09F can be found in the companion cyclone tracks file. (Since I could not locate any agency which assigned a Dvorak rating of T2.0 for either system, I normally would not have included them in the tracks file. But as I anticipated each system to strengthen, I created the tracking files, and since I had them, I did not want to discard them.) The third depression, TD-11F, was a much more significant system. A developing tropical disturbance was located about 215 nm east of Pago Pago at 0600 UTC 19 January. Over the next several days the system moved slowly and erratically in the same general area--many of the apparent jogs in the track were no doubt relocations. RSMC Nadi first classified the disturbance as Tropical Depression 11F at 20/2100 UTC. A warning for peripheral gales was included in the bulletins beginning at 21/1800 UTC, and a warning for storm-force winds of 50 kts for the eastern quadrants was included beginning at 23/0000 UTC. These strong winds continued as the system moved southward into Wellington's AOR on the 24th and gradually turned toward the southwest. The final warning obtained by the author placed the still-strong extratropical LOW about 350 nm south-southwest of Tonga'tapu at 24/1800 UTC. TD-11F was not a "classic" tropical depression. Remarks in the satellite fix bulletins from Brisbane on the 21st indicated that the system was a large, monsoon gyre-type circulation with an extensive area of peripheral gales. There were extensive areas of banding but they were not really focused around the poorly-defined center. A Brisbane bulletin on the 22nd noted that the system was similar to a major June, 1994, LOW which almost destroyed a cruising fleet and was the subject of a book, "Rescue in the Pacific". Beginning on the 22nd, SAB classified the system as subtropical using the Hebert/Poteat technique, and beginning with the 22/1800 UTC warning, RSMC Nadi changed the classification from 'tropical depression' to 'depression', ostensibly signifying the less tropical and more hybrid nature of the system. TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA (TD-07F / TC-11P) 7 - 12 January ------------------------------------------ A tropical disturbance just east of the International Dateline began to show signs of organization on 6 January, and the next day RSMC Nadi classified the system as Tropical Depression 07F. At 07/1800 UTC the partially-exposed center of TD-07F was located about 140 nm north of Tonga'tapu. The system drifted slowly southward over the next few days, and JTWC issued a TCFA on the 9th, followed by their first warning on TC-11P (35 kts) at 10/0000 UTC. At 0300 UTC on 10 January Nadi upgraded the depression to tropical cyclone status, assigning the name Elisa. The storm at that time was located only about 40 nm west-southwest of Tonga'tapu with the MSW estimated at 35 kts. Elisa began to curve toward the southeast as it slowly strengthened. The cyclone reached its peak intensity of 50 kts at 10/1800 UTC when centered about 150 nm south- southeast of Tonga'tapu. Elisa began to quickly weaken on 11 January due to the effects of cooling SSTs and increasing vertical shear. Fiji downgraded the system back to tropical depression status at 11/1200 UTC as it shifted to an increasingly eastward track. Although the peak winds near the center had decreased to 25 kts by 11/2100 UTC, warnings for peripheral gales were issued through 12/1800 UTC. By this time the former tropical cyclone had moved eastward to a point approximately 400 nm west- southwest of Rarotonga. JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW estimate for Elisa was 45 kts, and the minimum CP estimated by Nadi was 980 hPa. At peak intensity RSMC Nadi reported that gales extended out 150 nm from the center in the southeastern semicircle and 50 nm elsewhere. However, JTWC's gale radius in the southeastern semicircle was only 60 nm. Dvorak ratings from CPHC, JTWC, Brisbane and SAB all reached T3.5/3.5 (55 kts over 1-min), supporting Nadi's peak 10-min avg MSW of 50 kts. JTWC's only rating of T3.5/3.5 came at 10/1130 UTC when no warning was issued, and the numbers were coming down by 10/1730 UTC, which is likely the reason that agency did not go above 45 kts for a warning intensity. The following information was sent by Derrick Herndon: "Elisa brushed Fua'amotu in Tonga on January 10th with winds from 340@28 gusting to 38 kts at 0400 UTC. The lowest pressure of 995 mb at the station occurred at 0100 UTC on the 10th. The sheared, weakening center passed directly over buoy 54930 located at 23.4S/170.0W at 1200 UTC on the 11th with the buoy reporting a pressure of 986.5 mb." No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone Elisa have been received. (Report written by Gary Padgett) SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA (TD-10F / TC-12P) 15 - 20 January ------------------------------------------------ A. Synoptic History ------------------- Severe Tropical Cyclone Funa was the second intense tropical cyclone in the South Pacific basin during the 2007-2008 cyclone season, the first being Daman in early December. Funa formed just west of northern Vanuatu and moved on a "reverse curvature" track, moving eastward through the northern Vanuatuan islands, thence curving southeastward and eventually southward, and in its weakening stages moving to the south- west. A tropical disturbance had been located south of the Solomon Islands for several days, but began to organize rather quickly on 15 January, resulting in RMSC Nadi classifying it as Tropical Depression 10F. The system was then centered approximately 350 nm west-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. TD-10F moved eastward and quickly strengthened, becoming Tropical Cyclone Funa with 40-kt winds at 0600 UTC on 16 January. At the same time JTWC issued their first warning on TC-12P. Funa was then centered about 275 nm northwest of Port Vila. The cyclone moved eastward and intensified, crossing over the northern portion of Espiritu Santo Island around 16/1800 UTC with the MSW estimated at 50 kts. Funa continued to strengthen and passed over or very near the northern tip of Aurora Island around 17/0000 UTC with an intensity of 55 kts. After leaving Vanuatu, Funa began to curve toward the southeast as it slowly strengthened. Nadi upgraded the cyclone to severe tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) status with 70-kt winds at 18/0000 UTC with the storm located a little over 300 nm west of Suva, Fiji. The storm continued to curve toward the south and reached its peak intensity of 95 kts with an estimated CP of 930 hPa at 0000 UTC 19 January while centered about 250 nm southwest of Fiji. JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW estimate was 105 kts, agreeing very well with Nadi's intensity. This equates to a Dvorak CI number of 5.5, and all the agencies available to the author (JTWC, Nadi, Brisbane, SAB, and CPHC) rendered a Dvorak rating of T5.5/5.5 at some point on either the 18th or 19th. After peaking in intensity, Funa continued southward, entering Wellington's AOR by 19/1800 UTC. The storm began to slowly weaken as it curved toward the southwest, and had become extratropical by 1800 UTC on 20 January about 325 nm northwest of New Zealand's North Cape. The final Wellington warning available to the author (20/1800 UTC) reported the CP at 957 hPa and the maximum winds at 60 kts. (I normally try to "grab" as many of the NZ warnings from their website and follow the extratropical stages of the storms for a few days at least. I must admit that for some unknown reason, I was unable to obtain any additional warnings on ex-Funa.) B. Meteorological History ------------------------- The following information was sent by Derrick Herndon: "The center passed south of Sola (91551) at 2100 UTC on the 16th when the station estimated winds at 340@40 kts. The lowest pressure at the station was 990.7 mb at 1700 UTC on the 17th. Also, at 2100 UTC on the 16th, Pekoa Airport (91554) reported a pressure of 988 mb with winds 120@20 kts. "Funa's convection had significantly weakened by 1200 UTC on the 19th; however, the system maintained a robust warm core for at least another 24 hours. Norfolk Island, located 180 nautical miles west of the center, at 1100 UTC on the 20th reported winds 30G47 kts and a pressure of 989 mb. At 2000 UTC on the 20th a ship well south of the center reported winds 100@49 kts. The system was still spinning down when it passed over a buoy at 32.0S/167.5E which reported 982.5 mb at 2100 UTC on the 20th." Here is the AMSU imagery depicting Funa's warm core: C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Even though Funa passed over some of the islands of Vanuatu as a moderately strong tropical cyclone, I have been unable to located any reports of damage or casualties resulting from the storm. If any become available later, they will included in a future summary. (Report written by Gary Padgett) SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE (TD-12F / TC-15P) 26 January - 9 February ------------------------------------------------ A. Introduction --------------- Severe Tropical Cyclone Gene was an unusually long-lived tropical cyclone for the South Pacific basin, existing as a tropical depression or cyclone for 11 days. The cyclone was notable for continuing as a tropical entity south of 25S in Wellington's AOR. Most tropical cyclones entering Wellington's AOR are either weakening or already undergoing extratropical transition and are usually classified as extratropical within 24 hours. Wellington maintained Gene as a tropical cyclone for 2.5 days before declaring the system extratropical. B. Synoptic History ------------------- RSMC Fiji designated a developing tropical disturbance as Tropical Depression 12F on 26 January, placing a weak center about 365 nm north- northeast of Suva, Fiji. At 27/0600 UTC TD-12F was relocated to the east to a position approximately 275 nm east of Suva. The system began to intensify rather quickly and JTWC issued their first warning on TC-15P at 27/1800 UTC. At 2100 UTC the depression's center was located near the southern end of the Fijian island of Vanua Levu, and three hours later was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Gene with 40-kt winds. Gene was moving on a west-southwesterly trajectory and was crossing over Viti Levu around 0600 UTC on 28 January. Thereafter, the cyclone continued to moved away from Fiji toward the southern islands of the Republic of Vanuatu. The cyclone strengthened to 55 kts at 29/0000 UTC, but temporarily weakened back to 45 kts later on the 29th due to the effects of moderate vertical shear. Environmental conditions soon improved and Gene began to re-intensify, reaching severe tropical cyclone (hurricane) status at 30/0600 UTC while located about 275 nm west of Viti Levu. The cyclone continued to slowly intensify as it continued on its west- southwesterly course, reaching a peak intensity of 85 kts (estimated CP 945 hPa) at 1800 UTC 31 January while centered approximately 175 nm southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. (JTWC's peak estimated 1-min avg MSW of 100 kts is equivalent to a 10-min avg MSW of 85 kts, so the two warning agencies were in close agreement.) The cyclone at this time was located just east of the southeasternmost islands of Vanuatu, but shortly thereafter turned abruptly toward the south, relieving the threat to the islands. Gene maintained its peak intensity for about 24 hours, then began to slowly weaken. Nadi downgraded the cyclone to below hurricane status at 02/1200 UTC, and the storm's intensity leveled off around 50-55 kts as it continued southward toward the 25th parallel and Wellington's AOR. Very interestingly, as Gene crossed 25S into New Zealand's area of warning responsibility, it appeared to significantly re-intensity. In their very first warning, the Wellington office raised the peak winds near the center from 50 kts back to 65 kts. The cyclone at this time was located about 425 nm east-southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. The resurge in strength, however, was short-lived, and the winds were dropped back to 60 kts after 12 hours. After crossing 25S, Tropical Cyclone Gene gradually curved to a southeasterly and later east-southeasterly trajectory. The system remained just under hurricane strength for a couple of days, then began to re-intensify as it underwent extratropical transition and regained an intensity of 65 kts at 0000 UTC on 6 February. Wellington classified Gene as fully extratropical at 06/0600 UTC and at the same time JTWC issued their final warning. The ex-Gene storm continued to move steadily on a general east-southeasterly track as it slowly weakened. The final Wellington warning available to the author at 1800 UTC 9 February placed a weakening 35-kt gale center approximately 1300 nm south-southwest of Rarotonga. While JTWC's peak intensity of 100 kts (1-min avg) matched very well with RSMC Nadi's peak 10-min mean wind of 85 kts, in general throughout Gene's lifetime JTWC's estimated MSW values were less than Fiji's and/or Wellington's intensity estimates. In numerous cases JTWC's 1-min avg MSW was actually less than Fiji's 10-min avg estimate. The peak Dvorak classification noted by the author was a rating of T6.0/6.0 from SAB at 0830 UTC on 31 January. The peak Dvorak rating from JTWC and Nadi was T5.5/5.5, while the highest noted from CPHC and Brisbane was T5.0/5.0. C. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Press reports indicated that seven deaths resulted from Tropical Cyclone Gene's passage across Fiji. A total of 61 houses were destroyed completely, and there was significant damage to roads, schools, forestry, and agriculture. Also there was considerable disruption to water and electrical services, and delivery of supplies to hospitals and health care facilities was also affected. The estimated total cost of the storm was estimated to exceed $45 million. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't, I wanted to include them. (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information --------------------------------------- Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be retrieved from the following FTP site: Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance messages may be found at the following URL: Links are also included to websites with further information about the U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air- craft Operations Center. (2) Archived Advisories ----------------------- All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories, strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an example), the archived products can be found at: Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at the following URL: JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website: On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but if I learn of any, I will add them to this list. (3) Satellite Imagery --------------------- Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites, courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The links are: On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is located in the lower left portion of the screen. Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the equator, can be found at: (1) For the Eastern North Pacific: (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea: (4) Cyclone Tracking Information -------------------------------- There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions. The link to the site is: Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage which is very user-friendly: I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list. ************************************************************************* EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. ************************************************************************* AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive these via e-mail, please send me a message.) Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris Landsea, and John Diebolt): Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2006 (2005-2006 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. PREPARED BY Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific) E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Posted: 03.29.08 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com