MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY JUNE, 2007 (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see the Author's Note at the end of this summary.) ************************************************************************* JUNE HIGHLIGHTS --> Tropical storm brings beneficial rains to Florida and Georgia --> No tropical storm forms in entire North Pacific Ocean --> Very active North Indian Ocean basin with three cyclones --> Most intense Arabian Sea cyclone on record makes damaging strikes in Oman and Iran ************************************************************************* CYCLONE TRACK GRAPHICS John Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, produces track graphics of all the tropical and subtropical systems for which I prepare a tabular track in the companion cyclone tracks file. These can be accessed at the following URL: Scroll down the chart to the month of interest and click on the green bar under "Operational Track Image" for the desired system. The tabular track of positions and intensities may also be obtained from the above website, or from the other archival sites listed in the Author's Note in the closing section of this summary. ************************************************************************* WIKIPEDIA TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all tropical cyclones may be found at the following links: For some storms more detailed reports have been prepared. In those cases I will include the specific links in the reports for the applicable tropical cyclones. ************************************************************************* !!!!!!!!!!!! EXTRA FEATURE !!!!!!!!!!! A REVIEW OF THE 2006-2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON FOR THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE Following is a tabular summary of all the tropical depressions and tropical cyclones which occurred in the Southern Hemisphere between 1 July 2006 and 30 June 2007 as reported in the Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summaries prepared by the author. (1) Number - this is the sequential cyclone number assigned by JTWC in Hawaii. (2) Name - the name (if any) assigned by the responsible Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre. For systems in the South Indian Ocean west of 90E and in the Southwest Pacific east of 160E which were unnamed, the alphanumeric designator applied by La Reunion or Fiji, respectively, is given in this column. (3) Dates - range of dates for which tracking information for the cyclone is available in the Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks files prepared by the author. The dates given in most cases refer to the time the system was in warning status and generally do not include the pre-depression stages of the disturbance. (4) Pressure - Lowest central pressure (either estimated or recorded) during the lifetime of the cyclone. An asterisk (*) following the pressure indicates the reading was an actual measured pressure. Central pressure is given in millibars, which is numerically equivalent to hectopascals. (5) MSW 1-min avg - maximum 1-minute average sustained windspeed in knots as assigned by JTWC. An asterisk (*) following the MSW indicates that it was an actual measured value. (6) MSW 10-min avg - maximum 10-minute average sustained windspeed in knots as assigned by the responsible Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre. An asterisk (*) following the MSW indicates that it was an actual measured value. (7) Basins - tropical cyclone basins where the cyclone tracked during its life: SWI - Southwest Indian Ocean - West of 90E AUW - Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean - 90E to 135E AUE - Northeast Australia/Coral Sea - 135E to 160E SPA - South Pacific Ocean - East of 160E SAT - South Atlantic Ocean A number in parentheses (e.g. (1) ) following an entry refers to a note following the entries for the given basin. A separate table is given for each of the four Southern Hemisphere basins. Abbreviations for Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres: JTWC - Joint Typhoon Warning Center, formerly on Guam, now at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii MFR - Meteo France Reunion (RSMC La Reunion) RSMC - Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN JTWC NAME DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN NUM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --- (MFR-01) 18-23 Oct 1002 30 25 SWI 03S Anita 26 Nov-03 Dec 994 45 35 SWI 05S Bondo 17-26 Dec 915 135 110 SWI --- (MFR-04) 25-28 Dec 1000 -- 25 SWI 06S Clovis 29 Dec-04 Jan 975 65 60 SWI --- (MFR-06) 06-08 Jan 999 30 25 SWI 10S Dora 28 Jan-12 Feb 930 115 100 SWI 13S Enok 06-11 Feb 980 55 60 SWI 14S Favio 12-23 Feb 930 125 100 SWI 15S Gamede 20 Feb-04 Mar 935 105 95 SWI 16S Humba 20-28 Feb 960 70 75 SWI/AUW 19S Indlala 10-17 Mar 935 115 95 SWI --- (MFR-13) 13-17 Mar 1000 30 25 SWI --- ----- 20-21 Mar --- 35 -- SWI (1) 22S Jaya 29 Mar-08 Apr 930 110 105 SWI --- (MFR-15) 09-12 Apr 998 -- 45 SWI (2) NOTES: (1) System was a possible subtropical storm. The tracking information was taken completely from SAB satellite fix bulletins. That agency designated the system as Invest 99S. No TCWC issued warnings on the system. (2) This system was classified as a subtropical storm by MFR. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA / SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN JTWC NAME DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN NUM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 07S Isobel 31 Dec-03 Jan 982 40 45 AUW (1) 17S George 26 Feb-10 Mar 910 110 105 AUW/AUE 18S Jacob 05-12 Mar 954 75 75 AUW 20S Kara 24-28 Mar 942 105 105 AUW (2) NOTES: (1) In post-storm analysis, it was determined that Isobel had never completely satisfied the criteria for a tropical cyclone. By the definition used by the BoM warning centres, a system has to have gales wrapped around more than 50% of the center for at least six hours to qualify as a tropical cyclone. (2) Operationally, the highest 10-min avg MSW assigned to Kara by BoM Perth was 85 kts. This was upped to 105 kts during a post-storm review. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA / CORAL SEA JTWC NAME DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN NUM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 12P Nelson 31 Jan-07 Feb 980 45 55 AUE --- ----- 05-08 Feb 995 -- 45 AUE (1) --- Odette 26 Feb-07 Mar 990 -- 35 AUE 24P Pierre 16-21 May 992 35 40 AUE NOTES: (1) System was not a tropical cyclone, but rather a monsoon depression. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN JTWC NAME DATES CENT MSW MSW BASIN NUM PRS 1-MIN 10-MIN (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 01P Xavier 20-28 Oct 930 115 95 SPA 02P Yani 17-27 Nov 960 65 75 SPA/AUE 04P (05F) 29 Nov-04 Dec 997 35 30 SPA --- (06F) 09-17 Jan 1000 -- 30 SPA (1) 08P Zita 17-26 Jan 975 60 60 SPA 09P Arthur 21-28 Jan 975 65 60 SPA 11P (09F) 01-05 Feb 997 35 30 SPA --- (12F) 21-26 Mar 998 30 30 SPA 21P Becky 25-31 Mar 975 70 60 SPA/AUE 23P Cliff 03-06 Apr 980 55 50 SPA NOTES: (1) Some peripheral gales were associated with this system. ************************************************************************* ACTIVITY BY BASINS ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico Activity for June: 1 tropical storm Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below was obtained from the various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida: discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted. Atlantic Tropical Activity for June ----------------------------------- Over the period 1950-2006, the month of June has produced an average of 0.54 NS per year--about one every other year. Tropical Storm Barry formed on 1 June, the first day of the official Atlantic hurricane season, making this the third consecutive June to produce a tropical storm. The last such case occurred in 1964-1966. Over the 13-year period 1995-2007, the month of June has produced an average of 0.69 NS per year--above the long-term average. However, the month of June has not seen a hurricane since 1995, when Hurricane Allison formed early in the month. Since 1950 the only intense hurricanes to form in June were the deadly Audrey of 1957 and Alma of 1966. The drought-relieving rains of Barry in Florida and southern Georgia far outweighed any minor damage which the cyclone caused. TROPICAL STORM BARRY (TC-02) 1 - 5 June ---------------------------------------- A. General Information ---------------------- 1. Identification a. RSMC - Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (NHC), Miami, Florida b. NHC - Tropical Cyclone 02 c. NAME - Barry (named by NHC at 01 June/2100 UTC) 2. Overview a. Basins Affected: Atlantic Ocean (ATL) b. Dates: 1 - 5 June, 2007 c. Max Sust Winds: 45 kts (1-min avg per NHC) d. Min Cent Press: 997 hPa (based upon aircraft reconnaissance) Note: The CP given above is for the tropical portion of Barry's history. A pressure as low as 991 hPa was estimated by OPC during the extratropical stage. 3. Beginning of Track: June 01/1800 UTC, near 23.9N/85.7w, or about 225 nm west-southwest of Key West, Florida. 4. Peak Intensity: June 02/0000 UTC, near 24.3N/85.2W, or about 260 nm southwest of Tampa, Florida. (It should be noted that NHC's MSW was at 45 kts 02/0000 through 02/1500 UTC.) 5. Size: At its peak Tropical Storm Barry was a fairly small tropical cyclone with gale radii of 80 nm in the northern semicircle and from 30-40 nm in the southern quadrants. 6. End of Track: June 05/1800 UTC, near 49.0N/68.0W, or inland in eastern Canada near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River. B. Synoptic History ------------------- The official TPC/NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Barry is already available online, and the very detailed Wikipedia report is also available. Given that, there isn't any need to write much about Barry here. Following is the short summary of Barry included in NHC's monthly report for June, which should suffice. "Tropical Storm Barry formed from a tropical wave that spawned a broad area of low pressure near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on 30 May. The LOW moved north-northeastward on 31 May and thunderstorm activity gradually became more concentrated near the center early on 1 June. The organization continued to improve and a tropical depression formed at 1200 UTC on 1 June, just northwest of the western tip of Cuba. Six hours later the depression strengthened into a tropical storm. "Barry reached a peak intensity of 50 kts at 0000 June 2 while centered about 130 nm west-southwest of Dry Tortugas. Thereafter, strong upper-level southwesterly winds resulted in weakening and Barry made landfall in the Tampa Bay area as a tropical depression around 1400 UTC 2 June. Barry quickly lost tropical characteristics and became an extratropical LOW while located over eastern Georgia early on 3 June. The extratropical LOW intensified and moved northeastward along the East Coast of the United States. The LOW was absorbed by a larger extra- tropical system near the St. Lawrence River on 5 June. There were no reports of deaths or significant damage associated with Barry." The Wikipedia report notes that a surfer died in Pinellas County, FL, in heavy surf kicked up by Barry, and that there were two indirect fatalities in traffic accidents due to wet roads. Also, it should be noted that no advisories were issued on Barry as a tropical depression. The very first advisory on the system, issued at 2100 UTC on 1 June, upgraded the system to a tropical storm. Given that Andrea was a subtropical storm, the development of Tropical Storm Barry on 1 June marks the first time since at least prior to 1950 that the first purely tropical storm of the season actually formed on the day which kicks off the 6-month official Atlantic hurricane season. The closest prior occasion was in 1968, when Hurricane Abby was named on 2 June. Alberto of 1982 and Allison of 1995 became tropical storms on 3 June. Tropical Storm Allison of 2001 was named on 5 June, and Alma of 1966 and Andrew of 1986 reached tropical storm intensity on 6 June. A subtropical storm formed in 1997 on 1 June. No operational warnings as a subtropical system were issued, but the system has been included in the Best Tracks database. In 1953 Tropical Storm Alice, the first Atlantic tropical cyclone to bear a feminine name, had formed on 25 May and was near its peak intensity on 1 June. And in 1959, Tropical Storm Arlene formed in late May and was a weakening depression inland in Louisiana on 1 June. The official TPC/NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Barry (as well as the report on Subtropical Storm Andrea) may be accessed at the following URL: The Wikipedia report on Barry is available at the following link: (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Activity for June: 1 tropical depression Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for June -------------------------------------------- As the month of June opened, Tropical Storm Barbara was still active in Eastern Pacific waters. The storm, which formed on 30 May, made landfall in extreme southeastern Mexico near the Guatemalan border on 2 June. A report on Barbara may be found in the May summary. No tropical storms or hurricane formed during the month--only one short-lived tropical depression stirred Eastern Pacific waters. Since the satellite era began around 1966, the only years which saw no June tropical storms or hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific basin were 1969, 2004, 2006 and 2007. It is very interesting that three of these four cases have occurred within the last three years. The 1971-2005 averages for the month of June are: 2.1 NS, 1.0 H, 0.4 IH, 7.4 NSD, 2.7 HD, and 0.7 IHD. Even though the month of June has averaged one hurricane per year, the last June hurricane was intense Hurricane Carlotta in 2000. Tropical Depression 03E formed on 11 June several hundred miles south of Cabo San Lucas and moved northwestward for a couple of days, dissipating on the 13th. A short report on the depression, prepared by James Franklin of TPC/NHD, is available at the following URL: ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Activity for June: 1 tropical depression ** ** - classified as a tropical depression by JMA only Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for June -------------------------------------------- For the first time since 2000, no tropical storm or typhoon stirred the waters of the Western North Pacific basin during the month of June. No named storm formed in June of 2005, but Typhoon Nesat/Dante, which formed in late May, became an intense typhoon in early June and lasted until almost the middle of the month. In June, 2000, no systems were classified as tropical depressions by JTWC or JMA, but there was a midget system with a lifetime of only a few hours which formed just offshore from Hong Kong and moved inland over the city. The Hong Kong observatory classified that system as a tropical depression, but a 38-kt 10-min mean wind recorded at Sai Kung indicated that the system was possibly a tiny tropical storm. The story of that interesting little system may be found in the summary for June, 2000. All the information available to the author on that system was sent by Phil Smith, an Australian who at the time was living in Hong Kong. In June, 2007, no systems were classified as tropical depressions by JTWC; however, one system was tracked as a weak tropical depression by JMA in late June and early July. The system was first mentioned as a tropical depression by JMA at 1200 UTC on 29 June when it was located very deep in the tropics near 3.0N/148.0E, or several hundred miles to the south-southeast of Guam. The depression drifted slowly westward, but was dropped from the High Seas Bulletins after 30/0000 UTC. It (presumably the same system) reappeared in the Bulletin issued at 0000 UTC on 2 July, being located near 6.0N/140.0E, or well to the southwest of Guam. The depression was downgraded to a low-pressure area at 03/0000 UTC near 8.0N/135.0E, but was followed by JMA on through 0600 UTC on 4 July when it was last referenced near 8.0N/132.0E. This system was mentioned in JTWC's STWOs for several days but was always listed as an area with 'poor' development potential. Vertical shear remained too strong for the system to consolidate. No track for this weak depression was included in the companion cyclone tracks file for June. The absence of any tropical storms or hurricanes also coincided with a stormless June in the Northeast Pacific basin (except for May's Tropical Storm Barbara which was still operating on the first two days of the month). The last month of June not to produce any tropical cyclone of tropical storm intensity anywhere in the North Pacific Ocean occurred in 1969--which was a below-average year in both basins, but a hyperactive season in the Atlantic basin. ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Activity for June: 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity ** 1 tropical cyclone of storm intensity ++ 1 super cyclonic storm ** - classified as a deep depression by IMD ++ - classified as a deep depression by IMD Sources of Information ---------------------- Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin. The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and 3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity; hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status within 48 hours. NOTE ON WIND AVERAGING TIMES IN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN ------------------------------------------------------ As a result of some discussion with one of the Wikipedia writers who covers many Indian Ocean cyclones, I revisited the wind averaging issue with Dr. O. P. Singh, formerly associated with RSMC New Delhi but now the new Director of Satellite Meteorology in IMD. Dr. Singh reconfirmed what is stated above--that IMD does not modify the Dvorak scale when estimating the peak winds in tropical cyclones. This was very apparent in some of the advisories on Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu in June which gave the analyzed Dvorak CI number as well as the estimated maximum sustained wind. However, another party within IMD stated to the Wikipedia writer that their cyclone winds were assumed to be 3-minute averages. Therefore, the Wikipedia reports for the North Indian Ocean cyclones have been modified to indicate that the official RSMC wind estimates are 3-minute averages. Obviously, the difference between a peak 1-minute average and a peak 3-minute average would be negligible--far less than the average error inherent in estimating tropical cyclone intensity using the Dvorak method. North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for June --------------------------------------------- Tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean basin was well above normal in June, 2007, with three tropical cyclones of gale intensity (based on JTWC's analysis) and one reaching hurricane intensity. The last June to produce three tropical storms was in 1996, when there was also one hurricane. Over the period 1981-2002, the average number of June NS in the North Indian Ocean basin was 0.59 with an average of 0.09 hurricanes. The storm of hurricane intensity was Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu, which became the most intense tropical cyclone ever tracked in the Arabian Sea. The peak MSW estimates for this cyclone were 140 kts and 130 kts from JTWC and IMD, respectively. There have been three previous tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean basin for which JTWC's peak MSW estimate reached 140 kts, but none higher. All these cases occurred in the Bay of Bengal: Typhoon Gay (32W) in November, 1989; Tropical Cyclone 02B in April, 1991; and Tropical Cyclone 05B in October, 1999. Gonu was very destructive to the nation of Oman, and caused considerable damage in Iran, also. Tropical Cyclones 03B and 04B formed about one week apart in the central Bay of Bengal with each making landfall in eastern India as tropical storms of moderate intensity. (This is based on JTWC's analysis--IMD never upgraded either system to cyclonic storm status.) TC-04B made landfall farther north and dissipated over west-central India, but TC-03B's more southerly track carried it out into the northern Arabian Sea where it regenerated into a tropical cyclone. While IMD maintained the system at deep depression status, JTWC upgraded the system to tropical storm status, and there is some evidence that it neared or reached hurricane intensity. The Pakistani Meteorological Service, apparently concerned because the intensifying cyclone was approaching the coast of Pakistan, began referring to the storm as Tropical Cyclone Yemyin in their warnings, and the name was picked up by the media and given wide dissemination in the press. However, IMD, who is the WMO's official RSMC for the basin, did not name the system. Reports on all three systems follow. SUPER CYCLONIC STORM GONU (TC-02A) 1 - 7 June --------------------------------------------- A. General Information ---------------------- 1. Identification a. RSMC - India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi b. JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 02A c. NAME - Gonu (named by IMD at June 02/0900 UTC; name contributed to the regional list by the Maldives) 2. Overview a. Basins Affected: North Indian Ocean (NIO) b. Dates: 1 - 7 June, 2007 c. Max Sust Winds: 130 kts (1-min avg per IMD) 140 kts (1-min avg per JTWC) d. Min Cent Press: 920 hPa (estimate per IMD) 3. Beginning of Track: June 01/0000 UTC, near 14.2N/70.6E, or about 315 nm south-southwest of Mumbai, India, as referenced in a satellite bulletin from JTWC. 4. Peak Intensity: June 04/1200 UTC, near 19.9N/64.1 E, or about 350 nm east-southeast of Masirah Island off coast of Oman. 5. Size: At its peak Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu was a slightly-smaller- than-average tropical cyclone with gales extending outward from the center about 120-130 nm. 6. End of Track: June 07/1800 UTC, near 25.5N/58.1E, or very near the southern coast of Iran. B. Synoptic History ------------------- 1. Origin: Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu was the most intense tropical cyclone ever tracked in the Arabian Sea, reaching an estimated peak 1-min avg MSW of 140 kts. The storm is also the strongest known tropical cyclone to have struck the Arabian Peninsula, crossing the easternmost tip of Oman with peak winds estimated at around 85 to 90 kts. Gonu also became the first known tropical cyclone to traverse the Gulf of Oman. The cyclone severely affected the nation of Oman, ranking as the worst natural disaster in the country's history. Gonu also dealt a fairly significant blow to Iran, mainly in the form of flooding. Widespread convection persisted over the eastern Arabian Sea for several days during late May, and on the 31st JTWC's STWO mentioned that an area of convection with a well-defined mid-level circulation and cyclic convection had persisted about 350 nm south of Mumbai, India. There was no evidence of a LLCC at this time, and a 31/0058 UTC QuikScat pass indicated strong convergence on the western side of a surface trough along the coast of India near 13N. Upper-level analysis indicated that the disturbance lay in a region of low vertical shear under the ridge axis running through central India. An upper-level trough over the northern Arabian Sea was enhancing divergence aloft. The development potential was upgraded to 'fair' early on 1 June as a LLCC had developed and had shown considerable consolidation. The upper-level environment had also improved with vertical wind shear lessening considerably. A TCFA was issued at 01/1030 UTC with the system having remained quasi-stationary. Convection near the LLCC remained cyclic in nature, but low-level inflow had increased into the southeastern quadrant of the disturbance. Maximum winds were estimated at 25-30 kts, which would qualify the system as a tropical depression in the NWP basin. (JTWC does not use this terminology in the NIO basin and normally does not issue warnings until the MSW has reached 35 kts.) IMD initially classified the system as a depression at 01/1800 UTC, and upgraded it to deep depression status at 0300 UTC on 2 June. 2. General Description of Track: JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Cyclone 02A at 02/0000 UTC, locating the center approximately 370 nm southwest of Mumbai and moving westward at 7 kts. The system was tracking along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over northwestern India. Low vertical shear and favorable upper-level diffluence were enhancing factors for intensification, but much drier air to the northwest of the cyclone was seen as an inhibiting factor for significant intensification. At 0900 UTC the IMD upgraded the depression to cyclonic storm status, assigning the name Gonu. The westward motion briefly became north-northeasterly later on the 2nd due to a mid-latitude shortwave trough over eastern Pakistan; however, by 03/1200 UTC Gonu had resumed a steady northwesterly motion which it would follow essentially for the rest of its life. The storm had steadily intensified, and at 1200 UTC JTWC upgraded Gonu to 65 kts. It was still felt that the entrainment of drier air would limit intensification, but this was not to be the case. By 04/0000 UTC Gonu's winds had climbed to 115 kts, making it the first intense tropical cyclone (MSW > 100 kts) in the Arabian Sea since Tropical Cyclone 01A in May, 2001. It was felt that this would be the storm's peak intensity with slow weakening forecast, but again, this did not materialize. The MSW was bumped up to 130 kts six hours later, and at 04/1200 UTC Gonu reached its estimated peak intensity of 140 kts, making it the strongest cyclone to date observed in the Arabian Sea. At the time the storm was centered approximately 380 nm southeast of Muscat, Oman, tracking northwestward at 10 kts. The cyclone maintained its peak intensity (per JTWC's warnings) for 12 hours before slowly beginning to weaken. IMD's peak intensity estimate was 130 kts at 1500 UTC with an attendant estimated CP of 920 hPa. As Gonu continued tracking toward Oman, it slowly began to weaken due to decreasing oceanic heat content and the entrainment of drier air from the Arabian Peninsula. By 0000 UTC on 6 June the MSW had dropped to 85 kts with the center of Gonu located about 100 nm southeast of Muscat, or just off the easternmost tip of Oman. Cyclonic Storm Gonu continued on its northwesterly heading, skimming along the coast of Oman as it moved into the Gulf of Oman. The storm continued to steadily weaken with winds dropping below hurricane intensity by 06/1800 UTC. JTWC issued its final warning on Gonu at 07/0600 UTC with the center located about 85 nm north-northwest of Muscat, or just off the Iranian coast near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. The winds had dropped by this time to 35 kts. The weakening depression continued to meander in the area for a day or so before dissipating. IMD also issued their final warning on Gonu at 07/0600 UTC under the assumption that Gonu had crossed the coast and moved inland. However, based on satellite fixes from JTWC and AFWA, the center of Gonu never clearly moved inland into Iran but rather lingered near the coast. C. Meteorological Data ---------------------- Following are a few rainfall measurements posted to a discussion list by Jonathan Vigh which he'd obtained from a website. For the 24-hour period ending at 0000 UTC 7 June, Seeb International Airport near Muscat recorded 70.0 mm; Rustaq, Oman, recorded 72.8 mm; Samail, Oman, measured 69.8 mm (ending at 0600 UTC); and Jask, Iran, recorded 69.0 mm. By way of contrast, Oman's average June rainfall is 0.6 mm. (Thanks to Jonathan for posting these.) I wrote Derrick Herndon to see if he had any wind observations available. Following is his reply: "The strongest winds I could find were at Qalhat (41267) located at 22.7N/59.4E. The center passed just north of this station around 0000Z on the 6th. The last observation was at 2100Z on the 5th with 340@49 kts and 989 mb. The strongest winds from Muscat were at Seeb Apt (41256) at 06/1200Z with 280@24G45 kts and 993 mb. So nothing close to the center. Ship DDSK at 06/000Z reported 060@42 kts and 1002 mb well NW of the center. Ship VVCV had 270@45 kts and 1001.8 mb at 07/0600Z south of the weakening center. That is all I have been able to find. The objective estimates showed good agreement on 06/1200Z with our Satellite Consensus method indicating 972 mb and 70 kts, in agreement with JTWC. The IR indicated perhaps some modest re-intensification after interaction with land but nothing robust enough to show up in the intensity estimates. The trend was slow steady weakening." (A special thanks for Derrick for sending the information.) D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Cyclonic Storm Gonu led to the worst natural disaster on record in Oman. Rainfall totals reached 610 mm near the coast. Power and telephone lines were knocked out across the eastern part of the country, and strong waves and heavy rainfall caused extensive damage along the coastline. In Muscat, winds reached 54 kts, leaving the capital city without power. However, little damage was reported in the nation's oil fields. According to the Oman News Agency, the cyclone killed 49 persons with an additional 27 reported missing four days later. Over 20,000 people were adversely affected by Cyclone Gonu, and damage in the country was estimated at around $4 billion (2007 USD). In the United Arab Emirates, large waves led to flooding in the coastal city of Fujairah, forcing roads to be closed and traffic diverted. Overall damage to the port was reported as severe. A boat sank in the area, leaving its 10 passengers missing. In Iran Gonu dropped moderate to heavy rainfall, including 74 mm in the city of Chabahar, where winds reached 60 kts. Power outages were reported and there was damage to some clay houses in the area. A storm tide of 2 metres was reported in some locations. In Iran, the cyclone was responsible for 23 deaths, including 20 from drowning. Damage was estimated at $216 million (2007 USD). The above information in this section was taken from the online Wikipedia report on Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu. Much additional information is contained in the report, available at the following link: (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC-03B) 21 - 27 June ------------------------------------ A. General Information ---------------------- 1. Identification a. RSMC - India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi b. JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 03B c. NAME - Not named officially (The Meteorological Service of Pakistan unofficially named the storm Yemyin, and this name was picked up by the media and given widespread dissemination.) 2. Overview a. Basins Affected: North Indian Ocean (NIO) b. Dates: 21 - 27 June, 2007 c. Max Sust Winds: 30 kts (1-min avg per IMD) 50 kts (1-min avg per JTWC) d. Min Cent Press: 986.8 hPa (recorded--see Section C) 3. Beginning of Track: June 21/0300 UTC, near 15.5N/86.0E, or about 200 nm southeast of Visakhapatnam, India, as referenced in a bulletin issued by IMD. 4. Peak Intensity: June 26/0000 UTC, near 25.1N/65.2E, or about 100 nm west of Karachi, Pakistan. 5. Size: At its peak Tropical Cyclone 03B was a smaller-than-average cyclone with gale radii of about 100 nm in the southern quadrants and 75 nm to the north. 6. End of Track: June 27/0600 UTC, near 27.7N/63.6E, or inland about 465 km northwest of Karachi, Pakistan. B. Synoptic History ------------------- 1. Origin: An area of convection developed and persisted in the central Bay of Bengal on 19 June about 165 nm east of the Andaman Islands. Deep convection was increasing near a developing mid to low-level circulation, and surface observations in the area had revealed 24-hour pressure falls of 1.5 hPa. While the upper-level environment was characterized by diffluent flow, a strong tropical easterly jet was contributing to 20-30 kts of vertical shear. The disturbance drifted slowly to the west, and by the next day the LLCC had consolidated some and the potential for development was upped to 'fair'. Even though the environment was still not particularly conducive for cyclogenesis, surface pressures had continued to fall by about 2.0 hPa over the previous 24 hours. At 0300 UTC on 21 June, the IMD issued a bulletin upgrading the low- pressure area to a depression with winds estimated at 25 kts. JTWC issued a TCFA at 21/0730 UTC with the center estimated to be about 160 nm southeast of Visakhapatnam, India. Deep convection had developed over the well-defined LLCC, and a 21/0016 UTC QuikScat pass had indicated 30-kt surface winds. At 21/1200 UTC IMD classified the system as a deep depression, and at the same time JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Cyclone 03B. The system was centered about 100 nm south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and moving west-northwestward at 14 kts. Deep convection was located primarily over the south- western quadrant of the LLCC. TC-03B was tracking westward along the southern periphery of a mid to upper-level ridge over northern India. 2. General Description of Track: TC-03B subsequently moved westward and inland into coastal Andhra Pradesh near Gannavaram around 0300 UTC on 22 June. IMD never classified the system above deep depression status (28-33 kts), and the peak MSW estimated by JTWC was 35 kts. It is interesting to note that (to the author's knowledge), neither JTWC nor AFWA assigned Dvorak T-numbers higher than T2.0, and SAB reached T2.5 only at 22/0230 UTC. However, Dr. Karl Hoarau performed his own Dvorak analysis of TC-03B and concluded that the system peaked at 45 kts around 22/0000 UTC, shortly before landfall in India. Once inland the tropical cyclone weakened as it moved steadily north- westward across the Indian subcontinent. By 1200 UTC on the 24th the LLCC was still over land about 300 km northwest of Mumbai, but was nearing the coastline. Convection was located west of the LLCC where northwesterly flow from the system was converging with south- westerly monsoonal flow. The strong low-level southwesterly flow across the Arabian Sea was contributing to increased cyclonic vorticity, and an upper-level analysis indicated that a 200-hPa anticyclone over northern India was helping to reduce vertical shear. By 1800 UTC the LLCC had reached the coast and convection was starting to form over the center; hence, JTWC upped the development potential to 'fair'. A TCFA was issued at 25/0000 UTC with the center over the northern Arabian Sea in the presence of high oceanic heat content, low vertical shear and excellent divergence aloft. JTWC re-initiated warnings on TC-03B at 25/0600 UTC with the center located roughly 110 nm south of Karachi, Pakistan, and moving northwestward at 10 kts. TC-03B continued its northwesterly trek toward the Pakistani coast and slowly intensified. Based on JTWC's warnings, the cyclone peaked at 50 kts at 26/0000 UTC when it was located approximately 100 nm west-northwest of Karachi. A significant burst of convection had occurred over the LLCC, leading to Dvorak intensity estimates of 45 to 55 kts. The center of TC-03B made landfall in southern Pakistan around 26/0300 UTC a little over 160 km west-northwest of Karachi. Of course, once inland the system began to steadily weaken. JTWC issued their final warning at 1800 UTC with the center approximately 120 km west-northwest of Asni (also spelled Pasni), Pakistan. There is considerable evidence that TC-03B reached hurricane intensity prior to landfall in Pakistan (see Section C below). However, IMD never classified the system as even a cyclonic storm, leaving it at deep depression status. The IMD is the WMO-recognized RSMC for the North Indian Ocean basin, and as such has the official responsibility to name tropical systems. However, the Meteorological Service of Pakistan named this system Tropical Cyclone Yemyin in their warnings, and this name was picked up by the media and given wide dissemination in various press releases and on websites. The word that the author has received from a contact within IMD is that they do not recognize the name Yemyin for this system, and that when IMD names the next cyclonic storm in the North Indian Ocean, its name will be Yemyin. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ Around the time of TC-03B's initial landfall in eastern India, the station at Masulipatnam (16.1N/81.1E) recorded a SLP of 986.8 hPa at 22/0000 UTC, suggesting that the system was likely stronger than a minimal tropical storm. Supporting the idea that TC-03B was of hurricane intensity when it made its final landfall in Pakistan is an observation from Pasni (25.2N/ 63.5E). The station, which was never in the eyewall, recorded a SLP of 987.1 hPa at 26/0600 UTC, about three hours after the center had made landfall. The above observations were sent by Karl Hoarau, and Karl also made the following comments regarding TC-03B's intensity at landfall in Pakistan (slightly edited): "Nevertheless, my personal estimate gave an intensity near 65 kts at 0200Z today when the cyclone crossed the coast of Pakistan near Ormara (25.3N/64.6E). The past history of the storm and the satellite pictures (microwave + EIR) showed that the intensification did not break the Dvorak constraints. "In fact, the 0113Z AMSU data (NOAA 15) and the F13 and F15 MI pictures (0210Z and 0323Z) showed a closed eye. Moreover, the station of Pasni (25.2N/63.5E), which never was in the eyewall, recorded a SLP of 987.1 hPa at 0600Z when TC-03B had already made landfall. The Dvorak analysis yielded T4.0 based on a band of 1.2 deg on a LOG 10 spiral." (A special thanks to Karl for sending the information.) D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ Tropical Cyclone 03B was a deadly storm. According to information contained in the online Wikipedia report, gleaned from various press articles, 140 persons died in India, and the death toll in Pakistan is estimated to be between 900 and 1000, including over 200 in the Karachi area from an outer band of the storm, 380 in Balochistan Province, 250 in Sindh Province, and 100 in the Northwest Frontier Province. Also, more than 80 persons were killed in floods associated with the remnants of TC-03B in Afghanistan. More information may be obtained from the Wikipedia report, available at the following link: (Report written by Gary Padgett) TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC-04B) 27 June - 1 July ------------------------------------ A. General Information ---------------------- 1. Identification a. RSMC - India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi b. JTWC - Tropical Cyclone 04B c. NAME - None 2. Overview a. Basins Affected: North Indian Ocean (NIO) b. Dates: 27 June - 1 July, 2007 c. Max Sust Winds: 30 kts (1-min avg per IMD) 45 kts (1-min avg per JTWC) d. Min Cent Press: 982.8 hPa (recorded--see Section C) 3. Beginning of Track: June 27/0000 UTC, near 17.2N/89.0E, or about 325 nm south-southeast of Calcutta, India, as referenced in a satellite bulletin issued by AFWA. 4. Peak Intensity: June 28/1800 UTC, 19.0N/86.3E, or about 90 nm south-southeast of Calcutta, India. (JTWC's peak intensity was at 45 kts from 28/1800 through 29/1200 UTC.) 5. Size: At its peak Tropical Cyclone 04B was an average-sized, somewhat asymmetrical cyclone with gale radii ranging from 110 nm in the northeast quadrant to 210 nm in the southeast quadrant. 6. End of Track: July 01/0000 UTC, near 23.0N/77.7E, or inland about 675 km northeast of Mumbai, India. B. Synoptic History ------------------- 1. Origin: About a week after the precursor of TC-03B had formed in the central Bay of Bengal, another disturbance appeared in the same general area, although a couple hundred miles farther north. On 27 June an area of convection was located roughly 300 nm east of Visakhapatnam, India. Satellite imagery depicted a partially-exposed LLCC with deep convective banding organizing and wrapping into the eastern quadrant. The LLCC was broad and vertical shear was moderate. Since the disturbance was forecast to move into a more favorable environment, JTWC upped the development potential to 'fair'. At 0730 UTC on 28 June, exactly one week after a TCFA had been issued for TC-03B, JTWC issued a TCFA for the current disturbance. The center had migrated westward to a point about 180 nm east of Visak- hapatnam. Convective banding features had become better organized, and synoptic observations from the coast of India were indicating pressure falls. Vertical shear had decreased and an upper-level anticyclone was developing over the system. IMD had classified the developing system as a depression at 28/0000 UTC, and had upgraded it to deep depression status three hours later. 2. General Description of Track: JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Cyclone 04B at 1200 UTC on 28 June, placing the center about 170 nm east of Visakhapatnam. The system was tracking toward the north-northwest at 8 kts, having taken a northerly turn due to the steering influence of low to mid-level ridging to the east. The initial warning intensity was 35 kts, and some strengthening was forecast due to favorable upper-level diffluence and a slight decrease in vertical shear. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/3.0 from both JTWC and AFWA, the MSW had likely increased to 45 kts by 1800 UTC. This intensity was maintained until landfall just south of Bhubaneswar just after 29/0000 UTC. Around the time of landfall TC-04B turned more to the northwest, and this track continued as the system slowly weakened while moving across northern India. The remnants of TC-04B reached the vicinity of Bhopal by around 0000 UTC on 1 July and persisted over northwestern India for a few more days. This system followed a more northerly track than its predecessor and did not move out over the Arabian Sea. It should be noted that, as with TC-03B, the IMD did not classify this system above the deep depression stage, meaning that no name was assigned. C. Meteorological Observations ------------------------------ The station of Bhubaneswar (WMO 42971, 20.2N/85.8E) recorded a minimum SLP of 982.8 hPa at 0000 UTC on 29 June. This was around the time that TC-04B made landfall just south of Bhubaneswar. (Thanks to Karl Hoarau for sending this piece of information.) According to the Wikipedia report, Mumbai recorded 243 mm of rain in association with the remnants of TC-04B, and up to 462 mm was measured at a location in the Bharuch District of Gujarat State. D. Damage and Casualties ------------------------ The Wikipedia report states that deep convection associated with the remnants of the cyclone brought heavy rains to Maharashtra with at least 43 persons killed in the state. Also, 14 persons died in Gujarat State due to flooding. (Report written by Gary Padgett) ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Activity for June: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E Activity for June: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E Activity for June: No tropical cyclones Australian East Coast LOWs in June ---------------------------------- A series of severe storm events pommeled the Australian East Coast during June. While these type systems are not tropical, they often exhibit some of the characteristics of subtropical or hybrid cyclones. By far the main event was the LOW of 5-10 June, and this one drew on a plume of tropical moisture flowing down across Queensland. Carl Smith, who lives on Queensland's Gold Coast near Brisbane, has put together a webpage with an exhaustive history of the main storm event in early June, replete with narrative, photos, satellite imagery, radar loops, and links to newspaper articles. This LOW was responsible for a major snowfall event in northern New South Wales, a region which normally receives little snow. Michael Bath, a storm chaser and media reporter who lives near Lismore, NSW, went snow chasing and made some very nice photos of the snow from the Northern Tablelands. Many of Michael's photos, as well as a description of some of his experiences, are included on Carl's webpage. The link to Carl's East Coast LOW webpage is: ************************************************************************* SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E Activity for June: No tropical cyclones ************************************************************************* SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't, I wanted to include them. (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information --------------------------------------- Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be retrieved from the following FTP site: Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance messages may be found at the following URL: Links are also included to websites with further information about the U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air- craft Operations Center. (2) Archived Advisories ----------------------- All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories, strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an example), the archived products can be found at: Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at the following URL: JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website: On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but if I learn of any, I will add them to this list. (3) Satellite Imagery --------------------- Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites, courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The links are: On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is located in the lower left portion of the screen. Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the equator, can be found at: (1) For the Eastern North Pacific: (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea: (4) Cyclone Tracking Information -------------------------------- There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions. The link to the site is: These tracks are often updated as further analysis occurs and may be considered as sort of a working "best track". Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage which is very user-friendly: I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list. ************************************************************************* EXTRA FEATURE In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998 summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy to send them a copy. ************************************************************************* AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning centers will be passed along from time to time. The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive these via e-mail, please send me a message.) Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as Notepad or DOS editor to view the files. The first summary in this series covered the month of October, 1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris Landsea, and John Diebolt): Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones globally on a monthly basis. The URL is: TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2005 (2004-2005 season for the Southern Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. The URL is: Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking charts for the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. The URL is: A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales, Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries. PREPARED BY Gary Padgett E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com Phone: 334-222-5327 Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific) E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific) E-mail: scla4255@bigpond.net.au ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Posted: 08.20.07 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com