GARY PADGETT'S GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - NOVEMBER 2002 !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!! ************************************************************************* NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180 Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, for locations east of longitude 140W, and from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W. A 1-minute averaging period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military warning services for tropical cyclone warnings. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Depression (16E) 14 - 16 Nov ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 16E Basin: NEP Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 NOV 14 0000 15.2 N 110.0 W 1008 25 02 NOV 14 0600 15.3 N 111.0 W 1006 30 02 NOV 14 1200 15.5 N 111.1 W 1006 30 02 NOV 14 1800 16.3 N 111.8 W 1006 30 02 NOV 15 0000 16.2 N 112.4 W 1006 30 02 NOV 15 0600 15.9 N 113.1 W 1007 30 02 NOV 15 1200 15.5 N 114.0 W 1006 30 02 NOV 15 1800 15.2 N 114.6 W 1007 25 02 NOV 16 0000 14.8 N 115.6 W 1007 25 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor- ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized. The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com- pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so reliably provide. Systems Tracked --------------- Typhoon HAISHEN (30W / 0225) 20 - 27 Nov ************************************************************************* Storm Name: HAISHEN Cyclone Number: 30W Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0225 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 NOV 20 0000 10.3 N 149.9 E 1002 20 25 JMA: 9.7 N, 147.0 E 02 NOV 20 0600 10.5 N 147.3 E 1000 25 30 JMA: 10.5 N, 146.7 E 02 NOV 20 1200 11.0 N 144.8 E 1000 30 30 02 NOV 20 1800 10.5 N 144.2 E 996 30 35 JMA: 11.8 N, 142.6 E 02 NOV 21 0000 11.2 N 142.9 E 992 30 40 JMA: 11.8 N, 141.5 E 02 NOV 21 0600 11.6 N 141.0 E 990 35 40 JMA: 12.0 N, 140.3 E 02 NOV 21 1200 12.7 N 139.0 E 990 40 45 02 NOV 21 1800 13.3 N 137.5 E 985 45 50 02 NOV 22 0000 13.7 N 136.6 E 985 55 50 02 NOV 22 0600 15.1 N 136.0 E 985 60 50 02 NOV 22 1200 15.9 N 135.4 E 980 65 55 02 NOV 22 1800 16.4 N 135.3 E 980 65 55 02 NOV 23 0000 17.6 N 135.5 E 980 75 55 02 NOV 23 0600 18.8 N 135.3 E 970 85 65 02 NOV 23 1200 19.8 N 135.6 E 960 85 75 02 NOV 23 1800 21.1 N 136.3 E 960 95 75 02 NOV 24 0000 22.8 N 137.5 E 960 95 75 02 NOV 24 0600 25.3 N 139.3 E 965 85 70 02 NOV 24 1200 27.2 N 140.9 E 965 75 70 JMA: 26.5 N, 141.5 E 02 NOV 24 1800 28.7 N 143.3 E 970 65 65 NMCC: 28.2 N, 142.5 E 02 NOV 25 0000 30.0 N 146.0 E 975 60 XT - JMA Bulletins 02 NOV 25 0600 32.0 N 149.0 E 980 60 02 NOV 25 1200 33.0 N 152.0 E 982 55 02 NOV 25 1800 34.0 N 154.0 E 984 55 02 NOV 26 0000 35.0 N 158.0 E 984 55 02 NOV 26 0600 35.0 N 161.0 E 984 50 02 NOV 26 1200 35.0 N 164.0 E 986 50 02 NOV 26 1800 35.0 N 171.0 E 990 45 02 NOV 27 0000 33.0 N 178.0 W 994 40 02 NOV 27 0600 33.0 N 172.0 W 994 40 Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC follow below: Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts (GMT) NMCC ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 NOV 21 0000 35 02 NOV 21 0600 45 02 NOV 21 1200 50 02 NOV 21 1800 50 02 NOV 22 0000 50 02 NOV 22 0600 55 02 NOV 22 1200 55 02 NOV 22 1800 55 02 NOV 23 0000 55 02 NOV 23 0600 65 02 NOV 23 1200 65 02 NOV 23 1800 65 02 NOV 24 0000 65 02 NOV 24 0600 70 02 NOV 24 1200 70 02 NOV 24 1800 60 ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor- ological Centre for the basin. The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and 3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity; hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone (03B) 10 - 12 Nov Tropical Cyclone (04B) 23 - 28 Nov ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 03B Basin: NIO Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 NOV 10 0600 12.0 N 82.5 E 25 IMD Bulletins 02 NOV 10 1200 12.5 N 82.5 E 25 " 02 NOV 11 0300 14.0 N 83.5 E 30 " 02 NOV 11 1200 15.3 N 85.1 E 35 First JTWC Warning 02 NOV 11 1800 16.3 N 85.3 E 35 02 NOV 12 0000 17.8 N 86.3 E 35 02 NOV 12 0600 20.8 N 87.4 E 55 02 NOV 12 1200 23.2 N 89.2 E 30 Inland Note: At its peak this system was classified as a "severe cyclonic storm" by IMD, implying peak winds in the range of 48-63 kts. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 04B Basin: NIO Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 NOV 23 0300 10.0 N 87.0 E 25 IMD Bulletin 02 NOV 23 1200 11.4 N 88.8 E 35 IMD: 12.0 N, 87.0 E 02 NOV 23 1800 12.3 N 88.8 E 45 IMD: 12.5 N, 87.0 E 02 NOV 24 0000 13.2 N 88.7 E 45 02 NOV 24 0600 14.0 N 88.6 E 40 IMD-0300Z: 13.0N, 87.0E 02 NOV 24 1200 14.9 N 88.6 E 35 IMD-0900Z: 14.0N, 87.5E 02 NOV 24 1800 15.4 N 88.3 E 35 02 NOV 25 0000 15.8 N 88.0 E 35 02 NOV 25 0600 15.0 N 88.0 E 35 02 NOV 25 1200 15.2 N 87.4 E 35 Final JTWC Warning 02 NOV 26 0300 16.0 N 87.5 E 35 IMD Warnings 02 NOV 26 1500 16.5 N 88.0 E 35 " 02 NOV 26 1800 16.5 N 89.0 E 35 " 02 NOV 27 0900 16.5 N 91.0 E 30 " 02 NOV 28 0300 16.5 N 91.5 E 25 " ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Storm ATANG (MFR-02 / 02S) 04 - 13 Nov Tropical Cyclone BOURA (MFR-03 / 03S) 15 - 23 Nov ************************************************************************* Storm Name: ATANG Cyclone Number: 02S Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 02 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 NOV 04 1200 7.6 S 62.7 E 1006 25 Locally 30 kts S quad 02 NOV 05 1200 7.7 S 59.5 E 1005 25 " 02 NOV 06 0000 8.8 S 59.0 E 999 30 02 NOV 06 0600 9.1 S 58.9 E 999 35 30 02 NOV 06 1200 9.5 S 59.1 E 998 30 Named by Mauritius 02 NOV 06 1800 9.4 S 59.0 E 998 45 30 02 NOV 07 0000 9.0 S 58.8 E 997 30 02 NOV 07 0600 8.4 S 57.6 E 999 35 30 JTWC: 8.6 S, 58.8 E 02 NOV 07 1200 7.7 S 56.7 E 1000 25 Locally 30 kts S quad 02 NOV 07 1800 7.5 S 55.0 E 1003 35 25 JTWC: 8.4 S, 56.1 E 02 NOV 08 1800 8.8 S 52.6 E JTWC Trop WX Outlook 02 NOV 09 0600 10.1 S 52.3 E 35 JTWC Warning 02 NOV 09 1200 8.5 S 50.9 E 1004 25 Locally 30 kts S quad 02 NOV 09 1800 12.0 S 50.6 E 35 JTWC Warning 02 NOV 10 0600 11.4 S 49.4 E 1006 35 25 02 NOV 10 1200 10.8 S 49.5 E 1007 20 02 NOV 10 1800 11.1 S 48.9 E 20 JTWC Warning 02 NOV 11 0600 11.0 S 46.5 E 1006 20 02 NOV 11 1200 11.1 S 45.0 E 1006 35 25 JTWC: 11.6 S, 44.5 E 02 NOV 12 0000 11.8 S 42.7 E 35 JTWC Warning 02 NOV 12 0600 10.9 S 41.6 E 1006 25 Final MFR Warning 02 NOV 12 1200 10.0 S 41.4 E 35 JTWC Warning 02 NOV 13 0000 10.4 S 39.4 E 25 Final JTWC Wrng/Inland Note: Julian Heming of the UK Meteorological Office relates that a colleague of his was in Tanzania helping install a forecaster display package for that nation's Meteorological Service. A coastal station reported sustained winds of 40 kts, gusting to 80 kts, as Atang came ashore. This report, if verified, would suggest that Atang was of tropical storm intensity at landfall. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: BOURA Cyclone Number: 03S Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 03 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 02 NOV 15 0600 8.3 S 76.8 E 995 35 02 NOV 15 1200 8.7 S 76.1 E 994 35 35 02 NOV 15 1800 9.0 S 75.1 E 994 40 35 02 NOV 16 0000 10.0 S 74.2 E 994 40 35 02 NOV 16 0600 10.4 S 73.3 E 994 40 35 02 NOV 16 1200 10.8 S 72.4 E 994 45 35 02 NOV 16 1800 11.1 S 71.7 E 993 45 35 02 NOV 17 0000 11.9 S 70.4 E 987 50 45 JTWC: 11.3 S, 71.5 E 02 NOV 17 0600 12.2 S 69.4 E 975 65 60 02 NOV 17 1200 12.6 S 68.8 E 975 65 60 02 NOV 17 1800 13.0 S 68.2 E 975 75 60 02 NOV 18 0000 13.5 S 67.3 E 968 75 65 02 NOV 18 0600 13.5 S 67.1 E 968 75 65 02 NOV 18 1200 13.4 S 66.0 E 968 75 65 JTWC: 13.8 S, 65.5 E 02 NOV 18 1800 13.4 S 64.7 E 972 75 60 02 NOV 19 0000 13.5 S 64.0 E 972 75 60 02 NOV 19 0600 13.3 S 63.0 E 976 75 55 JTWC: 13.7 S, 62.8 E 02 NOV 19 1200 14.1 S 62.2 E 976 75 55 JTWC: 14.4 S, 61.9 E 02 NOV 19 1800 14.7 S 61.0 E 976 55 02 NOV 20 0000 14.9 S 60.0 E 978 75 55 02 NOV 20 0600 15.2 S 59.5 E 978 55 02 NOV 20 1200 15.5 S 58.2 E 978 65 55 02 NOV 20 1800 15.5 S 57.6 E 980 50 02 NOV 21 0000 15.5 S 56.7 E 980 65 50 JTWC: 16.0 S, 56.9 E 02 NOV 21 0600 15.2 S 56.2 E 984 50 02 NOV 21 1200 14.6 S 55.4 E 988 45 45 02 NOV 21 1800 14.1 S 54.3 E 990 40 02 NOV 22 0000 13.3 S 54.6 E 997 35 30 JTWC: 14.1 S, 54.3 E 02 NOV 22 0600 13.1 S 53.8 E 998 30 02 NOV 22 1200 12.9 S 52.9 E 999 30 02 NOV 22 1800 12.2 S 52.3 E 1000 25 Locally 30 kts S quad 02 NOV 23 0000 11.6 S 51.9 E 1000 25 " 02 NOV 23 0600 10.8 S 51.2 E 1002 25 " 02 NOV 23 1200 10.8 S 51.2 E 1003 25 " ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* !!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!! It has been brought to my attention that I should repeat in the cyclone tracks file the caveat which is included in the Author's Note at the end of the cyclone summaries. The tropical cyclone tracks which I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/ advisories/advices/bulletins from the various tropical cyclone warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and analysts at the several warning centers. For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere: In the near future I shall contact the other tropical warning centers to see if I can locate any links to sites where their "best tracks" might be archived. PREPARED BY: Gary Padgett garyp@alaweb.com SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY: Michael V. Padua michaelpadua@hotmail.com webmaster@typhoon2000.ph Huang Chunliang huangchunliang@hotmail.com ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Revised: 01.17.03 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com