GARY PADGETT'S GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - NOVEMBER 2003 !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!! ************************************************************************* NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180 Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor- ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized. The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com- pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so reliably provide. Systems Tracked --------------- Typhoon NEPARTAK (25W / 0320 / WENG) 10 - 19 Nov Super Typhoon LUPIT (26W / 0321 / YOYOY) 15 Nov - 06 Dec ************************************************************************* Storm Name: NEPARTAK Cyclone Number: 25W Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: WENG JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0320 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 NOV 10 1800 6.4 N 148.7 E 1004 30 JMA Bulletins 03 NOV 11 0000 9.2 N 144.1 E 1004 30 Relocated 03 NOV 11 0600 9.7 N 143.1 E 1002 30 03 NOV 11 1200 10.5 N 141.2 E 1004 30 03 NOV 11 1800 10.8 N 139.5 E 1004 30 03 NOV 12 0000 10.1 N 138.2 E 1004 30 03 NOV 12 0600 10.1 N 136.3 E 1002 30 PAGASA: 11.0 N, 136.8 E 03 NOV 12 1200 12.4 N 134.1 E 1000 30 30 JMA: 11.4 N, 134.0 E 03 NOV 12 1800 12.6 N 131.7 E 998 40 35 JMA: 11.8 N, 132.1 E 03 NOV 13 0000 12.4 N 129.8 E 992 45 40 03 NOV 13 0600 12.3 N 128.5 E 992 45 40 03 NOV 13 1200 12.4 N 126.6 E 985 50 50 03 NOV 13 1800 12.5 N 124.5 E 985 50 50 Over northern Samar 03 NOV 14 0000 12.3 N 122.5 E 990 50 45 JMA: 11.6 N, 123.1 E 03 NOV 14 0600 12.0 N 120.8 E 992 55 45 JMA: 12.6 N, 122.4 E 03 NOV 14 1200 12.1 N 119.8 E 992 65 45 JMA: 12.3 N, 120.7 E 03 NOV 14 1800 12.2 N 118.7 E 985 60 50 In South China Sea 03 NOV 15 0000 12.5 N 118.0 E 980 65 55 03 NOV 15 0600 13.5 N 116.8 E 975 65 60 03 NOV 15 1200 13.9 N 115.9 E 975 65 60 03 NOV 15 1800 14.5 N 114.9 E 975 65 60 NMCC: 13.9 N, 114.8 E 03 NOV 16 0000 14.9 N 113.7 E 975 75 60 JMA: 14.2 N, 113.9 E 03 NOV 16 0600 14.7 N 112.9 E 975 75 60 JMA: 14.4 N, 113.5 E 03 NOV 16 1200 15.1 N 112.1 E 975 75 60 03 NOV 16 1800 15.7 N 111.1 E 970 75 65 03 NOV 17 0000 16.3 N 110.1 E 975 70 60 03 NOV 17 0600 16.4 N 109.7 E 975 65 60 03 NOV 17 1200 16.9 N 109.1 E 975 65 60 NMCC: 16.7 N, 109.6 E 03 NOV 17 1800 17.6 N 109.0 E 975 65 60 03 NOV 18 0000 18.1 N 108.8 E 980 75 55 03 NOV 18 0600 18.8 N 108.6 E 980 70 55 Over SW Hainan Dao 03 NOV 18 1200 19.3 N 108.5 E 990 55 45 03 NOV 18 1800 19.7 N 108.4 E 992 50 40 In Gulf of Tonkin 03 NOV 19 0000 20.2 N 108.8 E 996 45 35 03 NOV 19 0600 20.8 N 109.1 E 1004 30 30 03 NOV 19 1200 21.7 N 109.7 E 1005 20 20 Inland in China Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NHCC, PAGASA and HKO are tabulated below: Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts (GMT) NMCC PAGASA HKO ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 NOV 12 0600 30 03 NOV 12 1200 30 03 NOV 12 1800 40 03 NOV 13 0000 35 45 03 NOV 13 0600 45 45 03 NOV 13 1200 45 45 03 NOV 13 1800 45 45 40 03 NOV 14 0000 45 45 40 03 NOV 14 0600 45 45 40 03 NOV 14 1200 50 45 45 03 NOV 14 1800 50 45 50 03 NOV 15 0000 60 50 55 03 NOV 15 0600 60 55 55 03 NOV 15 1200 60 60 55 03 NOV 15 1800 60 55 03 NOV 16 0000 60 55 03 NOV 16 0600 60 55 03 NOV 16 1200 60 60 03 NOV 16 1800 60 60 03 NOV 17 0000 65 60 03 NOV 17 0600 65 60 03 NOV 17 1200 65 60 03 NOV 17 1800 65 60 03 NOV 18 0000 70 60 03 NOV 18 0600 65 65 03 NOV 18 1200 60 65 03 NOV 18 1800 45 50 03 NOV 19 0000 35 35 03 NOV 19 0600 30 30 03 NOV 19 1200 20 Note #1: The final NMCC bulletin was issued at 11/1909 UTC, estimating the MSW at 25 kts. Note #2: HKO upgraded the LPA to tropical depression status at 12/1800 UTC, then further to a storm 18 hours later. However, the first HKO warning didn't emerge until 13/1800 UTC when the system entered their AOR. The final warning was released at 19/1200 UTC, downgrading Nepartak to a LPA (the 20-kt MSW in the table above was estimated by the author). Note #3: CWBT did not issue any local warnings on Nepartak. The peak intensity estimated by this agency was 64 kts. ************************************************************************* Storm Name: LUPIT Cyclone Number: 26W Basin: NWP PAGASA Internal Name: YOYOY JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0321 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 NOV 15 1200 13.8 N 171.3 E 1006 30 JMA Bulletins 03 NOV 15 1800 13.2 N 171.0 E 1004 30 See Note 03 NOV 16 0000 13.5 N 170.0 E 1004 30 03 NOV 16 0600 13.4 N 169.0 E 1004 30 03 NOV 16 1200 13.0 N 169.0 E 1008 25 03 NOV 16 1800 13.0 N 168.0 E 1006 25 03 NOV 17 0000 13.0 N 167.0 E 1008 25 03 NOV 17 0600 13.0 N 167.0 E 1008 25 03 NOV 17 1200 13.0 N 167.0 E 1008 25 03 NOV 18 0000 10.0 N 166.0 E 1008 20 Relocated 03 NOV 18 0600 9.0 N 164.0 E 1004 25 03 NOV 18 1200 9.7 N 164.5 E 1004 30 03 NOV 18 1800 9.2 N 163.8 E 1002 30 03 NOV 19 0000 9.0 N 163.6 E 1002 30 03 NOV 19 0600 9.0 N 163.2 E 1002 30 03 NOV 19 1200 8.8 N 162.4 E 1002 30 03 NOV 19 1800 9.0 N 161.7 E 1000 25 30 03 NOV 20 0000 8.9 N 161.5 E 1000 25 30 03 NOV 20 0600 8.8 N 161.3 E 998 25 30 03 NOV 20 1200 8.9 N 160.7 E 998 30 30 03 NOV 20 1800 8.9 N 160.3 E 998 35 30 03 NOV 21 0000 8.9 N 160.0 E 1000 35 30 03 NOV 21 0600 9.1 N 158.5 E 1002 35 30 03 NOV 21 1200 9.2 N 157.0 E 998 35 35 NMCC: 8.6 N, 156.7 E 03 NOV 21 1800 8.8 N 155.5 E 994 45 40 JMA: 7.8 N, 154.8 E 03 NOV 22 0000 8.7 N 153.7 E 985 60 50 03 NOV 22 0600 8.9 N 152.3 E 985 65 50 03 NOV 22 1200 9.0 N 150.6 E 980 70 50 03 NOV 22 1800 8.9 N 149.0 E 980 75 50 03 NOV 23 0000 8.3 N 147.5 E 975 80 55 JMA: 8.0 N, 148.2 E 03 NOV 23 0600 7.9 N 146.6 E 975 90 55 JMA: 8.1 N, 147.2 E 03 NOV 23 1200 7.8 N 145.5 E 965 95 70 03 NOV 23 1800 7.9 N 144.2 E 960 95 75 03 NOV 24 0000 7.8 N 143.5 E 955 95 75 JMA: 7.5 N, 144.1 E 03 NOV 24 0600 8.4 N 143.4 E 955 95 75 03 NOV 24 1200 9.1 N 142.2 E 955 95 75 03 NOV 24 1800 10.0 N 141.2 E 955 100 75 JMA: 10.0 N, 141.9 E 03 NOV 25 0000 10.6 N 140.1 E 955 105 75 03 NOV 25 0600 11.5 N 138.9 E 950 115 80 03 NOV 25 1200 12.2 N 137.9 E 950 115 80 03 NOV 25 1800 12.2 N 137.1 E 950 120 80 03 NOV 26 0000 12.4 N 136.7 E 940 130 85 03 NOV 26 0600 12.9 N 136.2 E 925 140 100 03 NOV 26 1200 13.5 N 135.8 E 920 145 100 03 NOV 26 1800 13.9 N 135.4 E 920 140 100 03 NOV 27 0000 14.1 N 134.9 E 915 145 100 03 NOV 27 0600 14.5 N 134.4 E 915 145 100 03 NOV 27 1200 15.0 N 133.8 E 915 145 100 03 NOV 27 1800 15.3 N 133.2 E 915 140 100 03 NOV 28 0000 15.5 N 132.9 E 920 140 100 03 NOV 28 0600 16.2 N 132.3 E 925 140 95 03 NOV 28 1200 16.9 N 131.9 E 930 140 90 03 NOV 28 1800 17.7 N 131.3 E 930 125 90 03 NOV 29 0000 18.4 N 131.0 E 935 115 85 03 NOV 29 0600 19.2 N 130.6 E 940 105 85 03 NOV 29 1200 20.3 N 130.8 E 940 100 85 NMCC: 19.8 N, 130.8 E 03 NOV 29 1800 20.8 N 131.5 E 940 95 85 03 NOV 30 0000 21.7 N 132.4 E 945 90 80 03 NOV 30 0600 23.0 N 133.6 E 945 90 80 03 NOV 30 1200 24.4 N 135.3 E 945 85 80 03 NOV 30 1800 26.0 N 137.3 E 950 70 80 03 DEC 01 0000 27.1 N 138.8 E 960 60 70 03 DEC 01 0600 29.2 N 140.4 E 970 60 60 03 DEC 01 1200 30.9 N 141.7 E 975 60 JMA Bulletins 03 DEC 01 1800 32.2 N 144.1 E 975 60 03 DEC 02 0000 34.4 N 146.1 E 980 55 03 DEC 02 0600 35.7 N 147.4 E 980 55 03 DEC 02 1200 37.0 N 150.0 E 980 55 Extratropical 03 DEC 02 1800 38.0 N 153.0 E 980 50 03 DEC 03 0000 43.0 N 156.0 E 980 50 03 DEC 03 0600 45.0 N 159.0 E 976 50 03 DEC 03 1200 47.0 N 161.0 E 972 50 03 DEC 03 1800 51.0 N 161.0 E 970 55 03 DEC 04 0000 52.0 N 161.0 E 972 55 03 DEC 04 0600 53.0 N 162.0 E 964 50 03 DEC 04 1800 55.0 N 163.0 E 960 50 1200Z data missing 03 DEC 05 0000 57.0 N 164.0 E 960 50 03 DEC 05 0600 57.0 N 163.0 E 962 50 03 DEC 05 1200 57.0 N 164.0 E 966 50 03 DEC 05 1800 56.0 N 166.0 E 970 50 03 DEC 06 0000 56.0 N 167.0 E 974 40 03 DEC 06 0600 57.0 N 168.0 E 976 25 Note: It seems uncertain to me if the system referred to as a tropical depression by JMA on 15 November is the same LLCC which ultimately developed into Typhoon Lupit. The original depression was downgraded to a LPA and significantly relocated at 18/0000 UTC. I have begun the track for Lupit on 15 November, but there may not be continuity between this system and the later development. The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC and PAGASA follow in the table below: Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts (GMT) NMCC PAGASA ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 NOV 21 1200 35 03 NOV 21 1800 40 03 NOV 22 0000 45 03 NOV 22 0600 55 03 NOV 22 1200 55 03 NOV 22 1800 60 03 NOV 23 0000 60 03 NOV 23 0600 60 03 NOV 23 1200 60 03 NOV 23 1800 60 03 NOV 24 0000 70 03 NOV 24 0600 70 03 NOV 24 1200 70 03 NOV 24 1800 70 03 NOV 25 0000 70 03 NOV 25 0600 80 03 NOV 25 1200 80 03 NOV 25 1800 80 03 NOV 26 0000 90 03 NOV 26 0600 100 03 NOV 26 1200 100 03 NOV 26 1800 100 110 03 NOV 27 0000 110 110 03 NOV 27 0600 120 110 03 NOV 27 1200 120 110 03 NOV 27 1800 120 110 03 NOV 28 0000 110 110 03 NOV 28 0600 110 100 03 NOV 28 1200 110 90 03 NOV 28 1800 110 90 03 NOV 29 0000 110 90 03 NOV 29 0600 110 90 03 NOV 29 1200 110 90 03 NOV 29 1800 100 90 03 NOV 30 0000 90 80 03 NOV 30 0600 80 03 NOV 30 1200 80 03 NOV 30 1800 80 03 DEC 01 0000 70 03 DEC 01 0600 55 03 DEC 01 1200 50 03 DEC 01 1800 45 Note #1: No warnings on Typhoon Lupit were issued by HKO as the system did not enter that agency's AOR. Note #2: No local warnings were issued by CWBT. That agency estimated the peak intensity of Typhoon Lupit at 99 kts (10-min avg). ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor- ological Centre for the basin. The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and 3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity; hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone (02A) 12 - 15 Nov ************************************************************************* Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 02A Basin: NIO Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 NOV 12 0900 6.5 N 60.5 E 25 IMD Bulletin 03 NOV 12 1200 6.1 N 60.2 E 30 03 NOV 12 1800 6.5 N 59.5 E 30 IMD Bulletin 03 NOV 13 0000 6.3 N 58.5 E 55 03 NOV 13 0600 6.2 N 58.3 E 60 03 NOV 13 1200 6.1 N 57.7 E 65 03 NOV 13 1800 6.1 N 57.2 E 75 03 NOV 14 0000 6.0 N 56.2 E 85 03 NOV 14 0600 5.9 N 55.6 E 85 03 NOV 14 1200 5.6 N 54.5 E 65 03 NOV 14 1800 5.9 N 54.7 E 50 03 NOV 15 0000 5.9 N 53.5 E 40 03 NOV 15 0600 5.9 N 53.9 E 30 IMD-03Z: 5.5 N, 51.0 E ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E Sources of Information ---------------------- The track coordinates as well as the central pressure and 10-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were obtained from warnings issued by Meteo France's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on Reunion Island (MFR), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for the basin. The 1-minute average maximum sustained wind estimates were taken from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The center position coordinates from JTWC were compared with those from MFR and annotations made in the Remarks column when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more. Systems Tracked --------------- Tropical Cyclone BENI (MFR-02 / 02S) 09 - 22 Nov ************************************************************************* Storm Name: BENI Cyclone Number: 02S Basin: SWI MFR Tropical Disturbance Number: 02 Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks (GMT) Press 1-min 10-min (mb) (kts) (kts) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 03 NOV 09 0600 5.9 S 78.7 E 30 JTWC Warnings 03 NOV 09 1800 6.8 S 77.5 E 30 03 NOV 10 0000 6.8 S 77.2 E 30 03 NOV 10 0600 7.3 S 76.1 E 1002 30 20 Locally 25 kts 03 NOV 10 1200 7.3 S 75.7 E 1000 35 20 " 03 NOV 10 1800 7.3 S 75.3 E 999 35 30 03 NOV 11 0000 7.5 S 74.8 E 999 45 30 03 NOV 11 0600 7.4 S 74.3 E 995 45 35 03 NOV 11 1200 7.6 S 75.1 E 993 45 35 JTWC: 7.7 S, 74.4 E 03 NOV 11 1800 7.9 S 74.9 E 991 45 40 JTWC: 8.1 S, 74.1 E 03 NOV 12 0000 8.0 S 75.0 E 989 45 45 JTWC: 8.6 S, 74.3 E 03 NOV 12 0600 9.3 S 74.4 E 980 55 55 03 NOV 12 1200 9.5 S 74.5 E 980 55 03 NOV 12 1800 10.1 S 74.9 E 975 70 55 03 NOV 13 0000 10.6 S 75.0 E 960 75 03 NOV 13 0600 10.9 S 75.3 E 935 105 100 03 NOV 13 1200 11.2 S 75.7 E 935 100 03 NOV 13 1800 11.3 S 75.7 E 960 100 85 03 NOV 14 0000 12.2 S 76.2 E 976 60 03 NOV 14 0600 12.3 S 77.4 E 986 50 45 03 NOV 14 1200 12.8 S 78.0 E 986 45 03 NOV 14 1800 13.0 S 78.3 E 994 45 35 03 NOV 15 0000 13.4 S 78.4 E 994 40 03 NOV 15 0600 12.9 S 78.4 E 996 35 30 03 NOV 15 1200 13.0 S 78.3 E 999 25 Locally 30 kts 03 NOV 15 1800 13.8 S 78.1 E 30 JTWC Warning 03 NOV 16 0000 13.0 S 77.8 E 30 From JTWC's JMV file 03 NOV 16 0600 12.7 S 78.0 E 30 " 03 NOV 16 1200 12.4 S 78.1 E 30 " 03 NOV 16 1800 12.1 S 77.9 E 30 " 03 NOV 17 0000 11.9 S 77.6 E 30 " 03 NOV 17 0600 11.8 S 77.1 E 30 " 03 NOV 17 1200 11.9 S 76.7 E 1002 25 Locally 30 kts 03 NOV 17 1800 11.2 S 76.5 E 1002 30 25 " 03 NOV 18 0000 11.2 S 76.3 E 1000 25 " 03 NOV 18 0600 11.0 S 74.5 E 990 55 40 03 NOV 18 1200 11.5 S 74.4 E 985 50 03 NOV 18 1800 11.6 S 74.0 E 976 55 60 03 NOV 19 0000 11.9 S 73.6 E 976 60 03 NOV 19 0600 12.0 S 73.0 E 978 65 55 03 NOV 19 1200 12.2 S 72.3 E 965 70 03 NOV 19 1800 12.3 S 72.0 E 965 65 70 03 NOV 20 0000 12.6 S 71.2 E 965 65 03 NOV 20 0600 12.7 S 70.7 E 976 65 60 JTWC: 12.6 S, 71.3 E 03 NOV 20 1200 13.1 S 69.4 E 987 45 03 NOV 20 1800 13.0 S 68.2 E 992 35 40 JTWC: 13.2 S, 69.0 E 03 NOV 21 0000 13.1 S 66.8 E 997 30 03 NOV 21 0600 13.2 S 65.6 E 997 30 03 NOV 21 1200 12.8 S 64.2 E 998 30 03 NOV 21 1800 12.7 S 62.8 E 998 30 03 NOV 22 0000 12.8 S 61.3 E 998 30 03 NOV 22 0600 13.1 S 60.0 E 999 30 03 NOV 22 1200 12.7 S 58.7 E 1000 25 Locally 30 kts Note: JTWC's JMV file, a sort of preliminary working "best track", was used to cover the period on 16-17 November when neither JTWC nor MFR was issuing bulletins on Beni. ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* !!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!! To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/ advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and analysts at the several warning centers. For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere: SPECIAL NOTE: Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following websites: PREPARED BY: Gary Padgett garyp@alaweb.com SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY: Michael V. Padua michaelpadua@hotmail.com webmaster@typhoon2000.ph Huang Chunliang huangchunliang@hotmail.com ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* Published: 02.04.04 / Typhoon2000.ph, Typhoon2000.com