============================================================================= LAST T2K HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATE [NOWCASTING] ============================================================================= TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #019 [FINAL] TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 12:44 AM PhT (MANILA TIME) TUE OCT 19 2010 AT 12 AM PHT...1600Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 EAST OR ABOUT 85 KILOMETERS...53 MILES...NORTHWEST OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION. EYEWALL NOW REORGANIZING OFF THE COAST OF LA UNION...ITS EFFECTS SLOWLY RECEDING. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM LUZON...THIS WILL BE THE LAST HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATE ON TYPHOON MEGI...REFER TO SIX-HOURLY ADVISORIES AT WWW.TYPHOON2000.COM...WWW.MAYBAGYO.COM. ...NO FURTHER UPDATES TO FOLLOW. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ============================================================================= PAST T2K HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATES [MEGI/JUAN/15W/1013] ============================================================================= TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #018 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 11:43 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 11 PM PHT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 EAST OR ABOUT 30 KILOMETERS...18 MILES...NORTHWEST OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION. WEAKENING EYEWALL AFFECTING LA UNION...ILOCOS SUR. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #017 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 10:36 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 10 PM PHT...1400Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 EAST OR ABOUT 30 KILOMETERS...18 MILES...NORTHWEST OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION. WEAKENING EYEWALL RETURNING BACK TO SEA...STILL AFFECTING LA UNION... ILOCOS sur. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #016 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 9:25 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 9 PM PHT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 EAST OR ABOUT 15 KILOMETERS...10 MILES...NORTHWEST OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION. WEAKENING EYEWALL OVER LA UNION...WESTERN BENGUET...SOUTHERN ILOCOS SUR...NORTHERN PANGASINAN. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #015 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 8:46 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 8 PM PHT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 EAST OR ABOUT 25 KILOMETERS...15 MILES...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION. WEAKENING EYEWALL NOW AFFECTING LA UNION...WESTERN BENGUET...SOUTHERN ILOCOS SUR...NORTHERN PANGASINAN $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #014 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 7:06 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 7 PM PHT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 EAST OR ABOUT 15 KILOMETERS...9 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF CERVANTES, ILOCOS SUR. WEAKENING EYEWALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOUNTAIN PROVINCE...IFUGAO...NORTHERN BENGUET...SOUTHERN ABRA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILOCOS SUR. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #013 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 5:59 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 6 PM PHT...1000Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 EAST OR ABOUT 30 KILOMETERS...20 MILES...EAST OF CERVANTES, ILOCOS SUR. WEAKENING EYEWALL AFFECTING MOUNTAIN PROVINCE...IFUGAO...SOUTHERN KALINGA ...EASTERN ILOCOS SUR...SOUTHERN ABRA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #012 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 4:59 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 5 PM PHT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 EAST OR ABOUT 65 KILOMETERS...40 MILES...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ILAGAN CITY, ISABELA. WEAKENING EYEWALL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM ISABELA AND CAGAYAN...NOW OVER MOUNTAIN PROVINCE...IFUGAO...SOUTHERN KALINGA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #011 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 3:52 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 4 PM PHT...0800Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.4 EAST OR ABOUT 40 KILOMETERS...25 MILES...WEST OF ILAGAN CITY, ISABELA. WEAKENING EYEWALL AFFECTING NORTHERN ISABELA...SOUTHERN CAGAYAN...KALINGA AND MOUNTAIN PROVINCE. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #010 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 3:13 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 3 PM PHT...0700Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MEGI NO LONGER VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 EAST OR ABOUT 20 KILOMETERS...8 MILES...WEST OF ILAGAN CITY, ISABELA. WEAKENING EYEWALL STILL AFFECTING NORTHERN ISABELA AND SOUTHERN CAGAYAN... NOW MOVING INTO KALINGA AND MOUNTAIN PROVINCE. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #009 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 1:49 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 2 PM PHT...0600Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI SLOWLY DISAPPEARING... STORM'S MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED...AND WAS LOCATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY ...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 EAST OR ABOUT 15 KILOMETERS...9 MILES...NORTHEAST OF ILAGAN CITY, ISABELA...OR ABOUT 40 KILOMETERS...25 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN. EYEWALL WEAKENING SLOWLY WHILE OVER NORTHERN ISABELA AND SOUTHERN CAGAYAN. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #008 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 12:49 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 1 PM PHT...0500Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI BECOMING OBSCURED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...AND WAS LOCATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 EAST OR ABOUT 25 KILOMETERS...15 MILES...NORTHEAST OF ILAGAN CITY, ISABELA...OR ABOUT 45 KILOMETERS...28 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN. INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHERN CAGAYAN AND NORTHERN ISABELA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #007 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 12:05 PM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 12 PM PHT...0400Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI IS NOW MAKING LANDFALL ALONG DIVILACAN BAY OFF NORTHERN ISABELA...AND WAS LOCATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 EAST OR ABOUT 50 KILOMETERS...30 MILES...NORTHEAST OF ILAGAN CITY, ISABELA...OR ABOUT 55 KILOMETERS...35 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN. INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL NOW AFFECTING SOUTHERN CAGAYAN AND NORTHERN ISABELA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #006 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 11:01 AM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 11 AM PHT...0300Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI WAS LOCATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 122.5 EAST OR ABOUT 85 KILOMETERS...53 MILES...EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN, PHILIPPINES. INTENSE...ROUND EYE BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED...A SIGN THAT THE HOWLER IS NEAR LANDFALL...NOW VERY NEAR THE COAST OF ISABELA-CAGAYAN...JUST ABOUT 35 KILOMETERS AWAY. INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CAGAYAN AND NORTHERN ISABELA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #005 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 10:15 AM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 10 AM PHT...0200Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 122.9 EAST OR ABOUT 130 KILOMETERS...80 MILES...EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN, PHILIPPINES. INTENSE...ROUND EYE APPROX. 40 TO 45 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER... NOW NEAR THE COAST OF ISABELA-CAGAYAN...JUST ABOUT 50 KILOMETERS AWAY FROM PALANAN BAY, ISABELA. WESTERN EYEWALL HAS STARTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CAGAYAN AND NORTHERN ISABELA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #004 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 9:29 AM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 9 AM PHT...0100Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 123.1 EAST OR ABOUT 150 KILOMETERS...90 MILES...EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN, PHILIPPINES. INTENSE...ROUND EYE APPROX. 40 TO 45 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER... APRROACHING THE COAST OF ISABELA-CAGAYAN COASTLINE...JUST ABOUT 65 KILOMETERS AWAY FROM PALANAN BAY, ISABELA. WESTERN EYEWALL NOW ENTERING THE COAST OF CAGAYAN AND ISABELA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #003 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 8:05 AM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 8 AM PHT...0000Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 123.3 EAST OR ABOUT 170 KILOMETERS...106 MILES...EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN, PHILIPPINES. INTENSE...WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX. 45 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER... STILL OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...MOVING CLOSER TO ISABELA-CAGAYAN COASTLINE. WESTERN EYEWALL APPROACHING THE COAST OF ISABELA & CAGAYAN. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #002 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 7:05 AM PhT (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 7 AM PHT...2300Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 123.4 EAST OR ABOUT 180 KILOMETERS...112 MILES...EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN, PHILIPPINES. INTENSE...WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX. 45 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER... STILL OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...MOVING CLOSER TO ISABELA-CAGAYAN COASTLINE. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (JUAN/15W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #001 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 6:05 AM PST (MANILA TIME) MON OCT 18 2010 AT 6 AM PHT...2200Z...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 123.6 EAST OR ABOUT 200 KILOMETERS...125 MILES...EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN, PHILIPPINES. INTENSE...WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX. 45 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER... MOVING CLOSER TO ISABELA-CAGAYAN COASTLINE. WESTERN EYEWALL OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA =============================================================================