============================================================================= FINAL T2K HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATE [NOWCASTING] ============================================================================= TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #017 [FINAL] TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 8:38 PM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 8 PM PHT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 EAST OR ABOUT 118 KILOMETERS...73 MILES...WEST OF CAPE BOLINAO, PANGASINAN... AND 176 KILOMETERS...110 MILES...WSW OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION, PHILIPPINES. TYPHOON'S CORE NOW REORGANIZING OFF THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM LUZON...THIS WILL BE THE LAST HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATE ON TYPHOON NALGAE...REFER TO SIX- HOURLY ADVISORIES AT WWW.TYPHOON2000.COM...WWW.MAYBAGYO.COM. ...NO FURTHER UPDATES TO FOLLOW. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ============================================================================= PAST T2K HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATES [NALGAE/QUIEL/22W/1119] ============================================================================= TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #016 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 7:33 PM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 7 PM PHT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.1 EAST OR ABOUT 76 KILOMETERS...47 MILES...WEST OF CAPE BOLINAO, PANGASINAN... AND 135 KILOMETERS...84 MILES...WSW OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION, PHILIPPINES. EASTERN EYEWALL ERODING...MOVES AWAY FROM LA UNION AND NORTHERN PANGASINAN. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #015 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 6:35 PM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 6 PM PHT...1000Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.5 EAST OR ABOUT 32 KILOMETERS...20 MILES...WEST OF CAPE BOLINAO, PANGASINAN... AND 92 KILOMETERS...57 MILES...WSW OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION, PHILIPPINES. EASTERN EYEWALL STILL AFFECTING LA UNION...PANGASINAN...INCLUDING DAGUPAN CITY AND NORTHERN ZAMBALES...TYPHOON CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #014 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 5:31 PM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 5 PM PHT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.8 EAST OR ABOUT 11 KILOMETERS...7 MILES...NORTH OF CAPE BOLINAO, PANGASINAN... AND 58 KILOMETERS...36 MILES...WSW OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION, PHILIPPINES. WEAKENING EYEWALL AFFECTING LA UNION...PANGASINAN...INCLUDING DAGUPAN CITY AND NORTHERN ZAMBALES...TYPHOON CONDITIONS STILL PREVAILING. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #013 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 4:39 PM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 4 PM PHT...0800Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 EAST OR ABOUT 31 KILOMETERS...21 MILES...SW OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION... AND 34 KILOMETERS...21 MILES...ENE OF CAPE BOLINAO, PANGASINAN, PHILIPPINES. WEAKENING EYEWALL AFFECTING LA UNION...BENGUET...AND PANGASINAN INCLUDING DAGUPAN CITY...TYPHOON CONDITIONS STILL PREVAILING. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #012 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 3:28 PM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 3 PM PHT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE IS NOW ALONG THE SHORES OF BAUANG, LA UNION...AND WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 EAST OR ABOUT 22 KILOMETERS ...14 MILES SOUTH OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION...AND 32 KILOMETERS...17 MILES WSW OF BAGUIO CITY, BENGUET, PHILIPPINES. WEAKENING EYEWALL AFFECTING LA UNION...BENGUET...AND NORTHERN PANGASINAN INCLUDING DAGUPAN CITY...TYPHOON CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE AREAS. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #011 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 2:28 PM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 2 PM PHT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE IS NOW ENTERING THE PROVINCE OF BENGUET...AND WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY... TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 EAST OR ABOUT 11 KILO- METERS...7 MILES ENE OF BAGUIO CITY...AND 48 KILOMETERS...30 MILES ESE OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION, PHILIPPINES. WEAK EYEWALL AFFECTING IFUGAO...BENGUET...TYPHOON CONDITIONS WILL CON- TINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #010 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 1:46 PM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 1 PM PHT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE CORDILLERA MOUNTAIN RANGE...AND WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 EAST OR ABOUT 48 KILOMETERS...30 MILES ENE OF BAGUIO CITY...AND 31 KILOMETERS...19 MILES ...NW OF BAYOMBONG, NUEVA VIZCAYA, PHILIPPINES. EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DECAY WHILE OVER LAND...CURRENTLY AFFECTING AND MOVING INTO IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, AND BENGUET...TYPHOON CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPEC- TED ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #009 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 12:44 PM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 12 PM PHT...0400Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE IS NOW OVER IFUGAO PROVINCE AND WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.4 EAST OR ABOUT 11 KILOMETERS...6 MILES WNW OF SANTIAGO, ISABELA...AND 40 KILOMETERS...25 MILES...NNE OF BAYOMBONG, NUEVA VIZCAYA, PHILIPPINES. EYEWALL STILL INTACT BUT WEAKENING WHILE OVER LAND...CURRENTLY AFFECTING AND MOVING INTO IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, & SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF ISABELA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #008 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 11:35 AM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 11 AM PHT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 EAST OR ABOUT 32 KILOMETERS...20 MILES NW OF DINAPIGUE, ISABELA ...AND 46 KILOMETERS...29 MILES...SE OF CAUAYAN CITY, ISABELA, PHILIPPINES. INTENSE BUT WEAKENING EYEWALL OF NALGAE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ISABELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AURORA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO IFUGAO & NORTHERN NUEVA VIZCAYA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPERTYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #007 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 10:29 AM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 10 AM PHT...0200Z...THE EYE OF SUPERTYPHOON NALGAE HAS FILLED-IN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR DINAPIGUE, ISABELA THIS MORNING...AND WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 EAST OR ABOUT 24 KILOMETERS...15 MILES NW OF DINAPIGUE, ISABELA ...AND 58 KILOMETERS...36 MILES...ESE OF CAUAYAN CITY, ISABELA, PHILIPPINES. DESPITE THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SMALL EYE, INTENSE EYEWALL OF NALGAE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ISABELA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPERTYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #006 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 9:27 AM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 9 AM PHT...0100Z...THE EYE OF SUPERTYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.5 EAST OR ABOUT 15 KILOMETERS...9 MILES NE OF DINAPIGUE, ISABELA ...AND 88 KILOMETERS...55 MILES...ESE OF CAUAYAN CITY, ISABELA, PHILIPPINES. VERY INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL...WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX. 9-11 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER...CONTINUES MOVING OVER THE TOWNS OF PALANAN AND DINAPIGUE. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUPERTYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #005 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 8:28 AM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 8 AM PHT...0000Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.7 EAST OR ABOUT 34 KILOMETERS...21 MILES ENE OF DINAPIGUE, ISABELA ...AND 109 KILOMETERS...68 MILES...ESE OF CAUAYAN CITY, ISABELA, PHILIPPINES. VERY INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL...WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX. 9-11 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER...NOW MOVING INTO ISABELA'S COASTLINE AND AFFECTING PALANAN AND DINAPIGUE. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAJOR TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #004 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 7:30 AM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 7 AM PHT...2300Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 EAST OR ABOUT 75 KILOMETERS...47 MILES EAST OF ISABELA'S SHORE- LINE...AND 149 KILOMETERS...93 MILES...EAST OF CAUAYAN CITY, ISABELA, PHILIPPINES. VERY INTENSE EYEWALL...WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX. 9-11 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER...PREPARES TO MOVE INTO ISABELA'S COASTLINE. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAJOR TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #003 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 6:50 AM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 6 AM PHT...2200Z...THE SMALL EYE OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 EAST OR ABOUT 96 KILOMETERS...60 MILES EAST OF ISABELA'S SHORE- LINE...AND 171 KILOMETERS...107 MILES...EAST OF CAUAYAN CITY, ISABELA, PHILIPPINES. VERY INTENSE EYEWALL...WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX. 9-11 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER...INCHING CLOSER TO ISABELA COASTLINE. WESTERN EYEWALL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN AURORA & ISABELA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAJOR TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #002 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 5:20 AM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 5 AM PHT...2100Z...THE SMALL EYE OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.5 EAST OR ABOUT 117 KILOMETERS...73 MILES EAST OF ISABELA'S SHORE- LINE...AND 191 KILOMETERS...119 MILES...EAST OF CAUAYAN CITY, ISABELA, PHILIPPINES. VERY INTENSE EYEWALL...WITH A WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX. 9-11 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER...INCHING CLOSER TO ISABELA COASTLINE. WESTERN EYEWALL APPROACHING THE COAST OF NORTHERN AURORA AND ISABELA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAJOR TYPHOON NALGAE (QUIEL/22W) TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE #001 TYPHOON2000.COM NAGA CITY PHILIPPINES 4:35 AM PHT (MANILA TIME) SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 4 AM PHT...2000Z...THE SMALL EYE OF TYPHOON NALGAE WAS ESTIMATED BY MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 EAST OR ABOUT 129 KILOMETERS...80 MILES...EAST OF PALANAN BAY, ISABELA, PHILIPPINES. INTENSE...WELL-DEFINED ROUND EYE APPROX. 9-11 KILOMETERS IN DIAMETER... MOVING CLOSER TO ISABELA-NORTHERN AURORA COASTLINE. WESTERN EYEWALL STILL OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. $$ FORECASTER PADUA ============================================================================= Copyright 2011 Typhoon2000.com/Typhoon2000.ph/Maybagyo.com