[1] An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the South China Sea,
The Philippines, Philippine Sea, and Western North Pacific Ocean. The enhanced
phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), developing La Nina conditions, and
above-normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) favor elevated rainfall in this
region. Confidence: HIGH.
[2] An increased chance for Tropical Cyclogenesis for waters near the
Philippines. Subseasonal coherent tropical variability, above normal SSTs and
areas of weak vertical wind shear increase the threat for tropical development.
Confidence: MODERATE. [view graph]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week Two (2) Forecast: AUGUST 03-09, 2010
[Tuesday to
Monday]
[1] Continuing increased chance for above-average rainfall for the South
China Sea, The Philippines, Philippine Sea, and Western North Pacific Ocean.
The enhanced phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), developing La Nina
conditions, and above-normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) favor elevated
rainfall in this region. Confidence: HIGH.
[2] Continuing increased chance for Tropical Cyclogenesis for waters near
the Philippines. Subseasonal coherent tropical variability, above normal SSTs
and areas of weak vertical wind shear increase the threat for tropical development.
Confidence: MODERATE. [view graph]
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the
above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100%
accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen within
the designated outlook
week.
:: Confidence Level [chance of happening]: LOW: <30% MODERATE: 30-50% HIGH: >50%
:: This outlook is issued for planners every Tuesday. ::
>> The next outlook will be issued on August 03, 2010.
Sources: NOAA Global
Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical
Computer Models.
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