Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook
Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) WED 21 NOVEMBER 2012
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) WED 28 NOVEMBER 2012


Week One (1) Forecast: 
NOVEMBER 21-27, 2012 [Wednesday to Tuesday] 

An increased chance for below-average rainfall for Northern and Central
Philippines (from Luzon down to the Visayas).
Approaching dry-phase of the
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), shallower warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs),
and weak ITCZ supports decreased rainfall over the region.

Confidence: MODERATE. [view full report]

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Week Two (2) Forecast: 
NOV 28-DEC 04, 2012 [Wednesday to Tuesday] 

[1] An increased chance for average rainfall for the Philippines. Inter-Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) off Southern Philippines, presence of the NE Monsoon
(Amihan) affecting Eastern Luzon, deeper warm sea-surface temperatures support
normal rainfall across the region.
Confidence: HIGH.

[2] An increased chance for Tropical Cyclogenesis for Micronesia & the Western
Pacific Ocean.
Near-Equatorial ITCZ, light upper-level winds, Deeper warm sea surface
temperatures (SSTs), and some numerical weather forecast guidance models favor
potential tropical cyclone development during this period.
Confidence: MODERATE.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen 
within
the designated outlook week.


:: Confidence Level [chance of happening]:   LOW: <30%   MODERATE: 30-50%   HIGH: >60%


:: This outlook is issued for planners every Wednesday. ::

>> The next outlook will be issued November 28, 2012.

Sources: NOAA Global Tropical Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models.


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