An increased chance for Tropical Cyclogenesis for Micronesia & the Western
Pacific Ocean. Near-Equatorial ITCZ, light upper-level winds, Deeper warm sea surface
temperatures (SSTs), and some numerical weather forecast guidance models favor
potential tropical cyclone development during this period. Confidence: MODERATE.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the
above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen within
the designated outlook
:: Confidence Level [chance of happening]: LOW: <30% MODERATE: 30-50% HIGH: >60%
:: This outlook is issued for planners every Wednesday. ::
>> The next outlook will be issued November 28, 2012.
Sources: NOAA Global
Tropical Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical
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