Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook
Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) TUE 27 JANUARY 2009
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) TUE 03 FEBRUARY 2009


Week One (1) Forecast: 
JAN 27-FEB 02, 2009 [Tuesday to Monday] 

[1] An increased chance for above-average rainfall for parts of the
Philippines.
The suppressed phase of the MJO and other subseasonal
tropical variability will slowly exit the region and allow La Niña conditions
to once again dominate and result in wet conditions in this region.

Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Strong cool northeasterly winds accompanied with passing drizzles or
rainshowers along Northeastern & Eastern Philippines (from Batanes
down to Northern Mindanao).
This wind system is commonly known as the
Northeast (NE) Monsoon or "Hangin Amihan" which starts in November and
ends in March. It is commonly caused by a passing Mid-Latitude Frontal
System over SE China and Southern Japan & a strong High Pressure Area
over China. A Tropical Cyclone off the Southern Philippine Sea or along the
waters of Northern Australia enhances this winter weather system.

Confidence: MODERATE.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week Two (2) Forecast: 
FEBRUARY 03-09, 2009 [Tuesday to Monday] 

[1] An increased chance for above-average rainfall for parts of the
Philippines.
The enhanced phase of the MJO and La Niña conditions are
expected to result in wet conditions in this region.
Confidence: HIGH.

[2] Strong cool northeasterly winds accompanied with passing drizzles
or rainshowers along Northeastern & Eastern Philippines (from Batanes
down to Northern Mindanao).
This wind system is commonly known as the
Northeast (NE) Monsoon or "Hangin Amihan" which starts in November and
ends in March. It is commonly caused by a passing Mid-Latitude Frontal
System over SE China and Southern Japan & a strong High Pressure Area
over China. A Tropical Cyclone off the Southern Philippine Sea or along the
waters of Northern Australia enhances this winter weather system.

Confidence: HIGH.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen 
within
the designated outlook week.


:: Confidence Level [chance of happening]:   LOW: <20%   MODERATE: 20-50%   HIGH: >50%


:: This outlook is issued for planners every Tuesday. ::

>> The next outlook will be issued on February 02, 2009.

Sources: NOAA Global Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models.

View: T2k Outlook Archives



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