for Saturday, 24 September 2016 [7:13 PM PhT]






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WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MEGI (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 24 September 2016
Next Update: Sunday Morning, 25 September 2016

 

Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm MEGI has gained more strength as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon. It was now locally named as “HELEN”.

This storm is forecast to accelerate West-Northwestward within the next 24 hours at a speed of 26 kph, moving in the general direction of Batanes-Taiwan area. MEGI (HELEN) is likely to strengthened further and could become a typhoon by tomorrow afternoon.

Where is Megi (Helen)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 24...0900 GMT.  The center was located over the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.5N 134.9E), about 1,347 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 1,371 km east of Basco, Batanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 105 kph near the center...Gustiness: 130 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 20 kph, towards the southern part of the North Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

None for the next 24 to 36 hours.

Storm Surge Info

None.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to move west-northwestward across the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea through the mid-southern part, and continues to rapidly intensify...about 816 km east of Basco, Batanes [2PM SEP 25: 20.0N 129.8E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Intensities further as it moves over the western part of the North Philippine Sea…about 315 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM SEP 26: 21.3N 124.9E @ 180kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Passing close to the north of the Batanes Group of Islands as it slightly loses strength, and about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) through the northwestern border…about 358 km northwest of Basco, Batanes [2PM SEP 27: 23.1N 120.0E @ 170kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info


- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 300 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 754 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center.

Additional Distances


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Sep 24, 2016
Location of Center: Near 18.5º N Lat 134.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 1336 km E of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 1393 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 1398 km E of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1400 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1542 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C Millanes for Weather.com.ph


WP StormTrack (for Public): PNG


Notes: T2K/WPF translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL or RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA).


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