for Wednesday, 01 April 2015 [6:45 AM PhT]






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WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK UPDATE NUMBER 003

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Wednesday 01 April 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 01 April 2015

Super Typhoon MAYSAK now passing close to the north of Yap Island with its intense Southern Eyewall lashing the area...remains at 240-kph wind intensity. Forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight or early Thursday morning (April 02).

MAYSAK is now the 3rd most-intense Super Typhoon (at Category 5 strength) ever to form early in the Season (from January to April). The other two Super Typhoons with similar strength in the past were: Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 and Super Typhoon Mitag of March 2002.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


None for the next 3 to 4 days.


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Apr 01...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY Maysak
Location: Over Western Micronesia, Caroline Islands (near 10.4N 138.1E)
About: 100 km north of Colonia, Yap...or 340 km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 240 kph near the center...Gustiness: 295 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 860 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 140 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Eastern Philippine Sea


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY MAYSAK will continue to move on a generally west-northwest track throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, MAYSAK will start to move away from Yap and the rest of Western Micronesia today and shall be entering the PAR later tonight or early Thursday morning (Apr 02). It will proceed moving across the Eastern Part of the Philippine Sea on Friday.

MAYSAK will continue to gain strength...reaching its peak intensity within the next 12 to 24 hours, before it starts its weakening trend by 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing further to 270 kph late tonight or early Thursday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Enters PAR...reaching its peak intensity over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea...about 1,000 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM APR 02: 11.5N 134.6E @ 270kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken but still a Super Typhoon as it moves across the Eastern part of the Philippine Sea...about 855 km east of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon [2AM APR 03: 12.9N 131.9E @ 220kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Bends slightly west as it moves across the Central part of the Philippine Sea...no longer a Super Typhoon...about 500 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM APR 04: 13.9N 128.8E @ 195kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Apr 01, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 10.4 N Lat 138.1 E Lon
Distance 1: 1355 km ESE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 1390 km ESE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 1555 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 1560 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 1660 km ESE of Metro Naga
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF


Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL or RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA). Live Naga City weather conditions (if available) taken from T2K`s new DAVIS VANTAGE VUE Digital Weather Station.


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