for Friday, 18 December 2015 [12:12 PM PhT]






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WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (ONYOK) UPDATE NUMBER 004 [FINAL]

Issued at: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Friday 18 December 2015

Tropical Depression ONYOK is still struggling along an area of unfavorable atmospheric environment as it continues to drift west-southwestward, closer to Davao Oriental. It is expected to weaken into an area of low pressure within the next 12 to 24 hours. The displaced western rainbands of ONYOK converging with the Enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) are now bringing moderate to heavy rains across Caraga, Davao, Visayas and Southern Bicol Regions.

ONYOK will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing widespread rains with some thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon including the Bicol Region and Northern Visayas. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

*Unless regeneration occurs, this is the final update on TD 29W (Onyok)..

RAINFALL [together with the effect of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) being directly enhanced by ONYOK]


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 18...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD ONYOK
Location: Over the western part of the South Philippine Sea...(near 07.5N 128.6E)
About: 232 km east of Cateel, Davao Oriental...or 265 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northwest of the center): 25 to 275 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 370 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West-Southwest @ 24 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Southwest @ 14 kph
Towards: Davao Oriental


1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TD ONYOK is expected to continue moving in a west-southwesterly track with decreasing forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, ONYOK shall be nearing the eastern coast of Davao Oriental late tonight...making landfall by early morning of Saturday (Dec 19).

TD ONYOK is forecast to weaken and dissipate into an area of low pressure within the next 12 to 24 hours with its remnants crossing the mountain ranges of Eastern and Central Mindanao this weekend.

The following is the 1-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Making landfall along the eastern coast of Southern Davao Oriental...weakens into an area of low pressure...about 49 km east-southeast of Metro Davao [8AM DEC 19: 6.9N 126.0E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Dec 18, 2015
Location of Center: Near 07.5 N Lat 128.6 E Lon
Distance 1: 272 km ESE of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 273 km ENE of Mati City, Davao Oriental
Distance 3: 375 km ESE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 4: 334 km ENE of Metro Davao
Distance 5: 402 km ESE of Malaybalay City, Bukidnon


T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): PNG


Notes: T2K/WPF translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL or RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA).


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