for Sunday, 05 July 2015 [1:45 PM PhT]
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 05...0300 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS LINFA (EGAY)
Location: Along the Apayao-Abra Border (near 17.8N 121.1E)
About: 70 km southeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte...or 65 km west-northwest of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southwest of the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to North-Northwest @ 9 kph
Towards: Ilocos Norte
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK
TS LINFA (EGAY) is expected to take a slow northwest to north-northwest track for the next 24 hours...recurving to the north to north-northeastward through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, LINFA will cross the southern or central part of Ilocos Norte this afternoon, and shall emerge along west coast of Ilocos Norte later tonight. By Monday morning (Jul 06), the storm shall be over the westernmost part of the Balintang Channel or over the West Philippine Sea. It shall then traverse the Luzon Strait, just along the western part of Bashi Channel on Tuesday morning (Jul 07).
TS LINFA (EGAY) will regain wind intensity upon emerging along the west coast of Ilocos Norte within the next 12 to 24 hours, with continued slight intensification until Tuesday morning (Jul 07). The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 100 kph on Tuesday morning.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
MONDAY MORNING: Emerges along the West Philippine Sea-Balintang Channel Area as it re-intensifies...turns northward...about 130 km north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM JUL 06: 19.2N 120.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY MORNING: Continues to slightly intensify while passing along the western part of the Bashi Channel, on a north to north-northeast direction...about 170 km west-northwest of Basco, Batanes [8AM JUL 07: 20.9N 120.4E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it makes landfall over Southern Taiwan...about 45 km east-southeast of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8AM JUL 08: 22.5N 120.7E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Jul 05, 2015
Location of Center: Near 17.8º N Lat 121.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 75 km ENE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 2: 85 km SSE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 3: 90 km SW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 165 km NNE of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 5: 365 km N of Metro Manila
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF