for Wednesday, 05 August 2015 [7:30 AM PhT]






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WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR UPDATE NUMBER 001

Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Wednesday 05 August 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 05 August 2015

Super Typhoon (STY) SOUDELOR is about to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves over the easternmost part of the North Philippine Sea. Slightly weaker than 24 hours ago, this powerful system will not directly affect any part of the Philippines, however, its outermost rainbands is likely to affect the Batanes Group of Islands this weekend.

This cyclone, although far, will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and could bring occasional to frequent rains with thunderstorms across Palawan, Western Mindanao, and Western Visayas beginning Thursday through the weekend. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Ryukyus and Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of STY SOUDELOR.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


None.


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, August 05...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY SOUDELOR
Location: Over the easternmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.5N 135.5E)
About: 1,400 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan...or 1,415 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 280 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 175 km north and 130 km south from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Taiwan


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

STY SOUDELOR is expected to maintain its general west-northwest track and forward speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, SOUDELOR will be traversing the North Philippine Sea through Friday, Aug 07.

STY SOUDELOR will continue on its temporary weakening trend within the next 24 to 48 hours due to its passage over lower Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) off the North Philippine Sea. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 205 kph by Thursday early morning (Aug 06).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Traversing the eastern part of the North Philippine Sea...weakens below Super Typhoon threshold...about 970 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 06: 20.6N 131.3E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintaining its WNW track across the central part of the North Philippine Sea...maintains its strength...about 475 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 07: 22.0N 126.3E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies at near-Super Typhoon strength as it prepares to make landfall along Eastern Taiwan...about 45 km southeast of Hualien City, Taiwan [2AM AUG 08: 23.7N 121.9E @ 215kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 05, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.5 N Lat 135.5 E Lon
Distance 1: 1105 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1155 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 1470 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 1435 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 1635 km ENE of Metro Manila
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF


Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL or RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA).


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