for Tuesday, 04 November 2014 [7:45 PM PhT]
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY Nuri (Paeng)
Location: Off the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) (near 22.7N 136.0E)
About: 930 km east-southeast of Okinawa, Japan...or 1,475 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 215 kph near the center...Gustiness: 260 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 725 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 155 km from the Center
Past Movement: Northeast @ 21 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northeast @ 18 kph
Towards: Sea South of Japan (Western North Pacific Ocean)
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY Nuri (Paeng) is expected to move north-northeastward during the next 24 hours...and will turn slightly to the northeast on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Nuri (Paeng) will move across the sea, south of Japan, passing to the west of Bonin Island by Wednesday evening. Nuri will start transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone on Thursday.
TY Nuri (Paeng) will continue to weaken/decay throughout the outlook period as it moves over much cooler seas and unfavorable atmospheric environment. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 120 kph by Thursday afernoon.
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues losing strength as it moves across the northern part of the Western Pacific...about 1,695 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM NOV 05: 25.9N 137.5E @ 165kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Starts transition into an Extrattropical Cyclone while passing well to the south of Japan...about 515 km south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan [2PM NOV 06: 31.2N 140.9E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Nov 04, 2014
Location of Eye: Near 22.7º N Lat 136.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 590 km WSW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima)
Distance 2: 660 km SW of Bonin Island
Distance 3: 910 km SE of Amami Island
Distance 4: 1520 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1480 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF